Re: Coronavirus - Numbers and Statistics

[johnhemming]

Hospital admissions still below recent (Xmas) peak, but still high 9/1 backwards 3718, 3549, 3849, 3967. New record admissions in South West.

[jfgw]

Forthwith is a graph showing admissions per million population for the NHS regions. The big crossover at about 13/12 is interesting if nothing else. East of England and South East are neck and neck and have been for a while. London has been subexponential since long before the present lockdown and, I reckon, could easily peak this month or not long after.

The chart below the graph shows the total admissions up until 31/7/2020 and is colour co-ordinated with the graph.





Both images are mine.
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. : https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc ... version/3/


Julian F. G. W.

[johnhemming]

Forthwith is a graph showing admissions per million population for the NHS regions.

Thank you for that. I thought I would look at total admissions per million population rather than by day divided into the waves

Total Admissions per million

area	Eng	East	Lon	Mid	NE	NW	SE	SW
tot	4674	3867	5500	4846	5510	5909	3663	2749
w1	1992	1647	2745	2013	2040	2563	1529	1079
w2	2682	2220	2755	2833	3470	3346	2134	1669

I think to some extent we will trend towards a limit. The more rural South West does not transfer the virus as well as the very urban London, but I think London has further to go.

[servodude]

Forthwith is a graph showing admissions per million population for the NHS regions.

I think to some extent we will trend towards a limit.

Does anyone have access to the complementary data for capacity?

Admissions will slow as that is approached, and stop when it is reached
- I'd be interested to see the headroom

- sd

[swill453]

I think to some extent we will trend towards a limit.

Does anyone have access to the complementary data for capacity?

Admissions will slow as that is approached, and stop when it is reached
- I'd be interested to see the headroom

I think capacity is somewhat flexible. If they need ICU room they will do what they can to "find" it, by retasking other space like operating theatres.

So if you had a figure for capacity, you probably find some hospitals are over 100% already.

Scott.

[servodude]

I think to some extent we will trend towards a limit.

Does anyone have access to the complementary data for capacity?

Admissions will slow as that is approached, and stop when it is reached
- I'd be interested to see the headroom

I think capacity is somewhat flexible. If they need ICU room they will do what they can to "find" it, by retasking other space like operating theatres.

So if you had a figure for capacity, you probably find some hospitals are over 100% already.

Scott.

Indeed!
I figure there's both soft and hard limits on it; along with shifts in triage and admission criteria

At this stage I can easily see a "reduction" in admissions needing a good deal of inspection before it can be interpreted in the same way it would have been a few months ago

- sd

[johnhemming]

At this stage I can easily see a "reduction" in admissions needing a good deal of inspection before it can be interpreted in the same way it would have been a few months ago

Although your underlying point is potentially valid and I already adjust for that in the Gompertz modelling as we know that patients are being diverted from some hospitals in London to others.

a) This does not affect aggregate statistics merely those by trust
b) Although there have been proposals (not from the government, but in at least one paper) to provide additional oxygen at home those have not as far as I know been implemented.

[servodude]

At this stage I can easily see a "reduction" in admissions needing a good deal of inspection before it can be interpreted in the same way it would have been a few months ago

Although your underlying point is potentially valid and I already adjust for that in the Gompertz modelling as we know that patients are being diverted from some hospitals in London to others.

a) This does not affect aggregate statistics merely those by trust
b) Although there have been proposals (not from the government, but in at least one paper) to provide additional oxygen at home those have not as far as I know been implemented.

Thanks for that.

So we're still looking for a source for data regarding capacity

Extra-hospital oxygen is a good idea (as is home NIV - but I would say that )
- it was the lack of this in Sweden that lead to their "first try morphine" approach in the original wave, to avoid overloaded healthcare; shameful approach!

- sd

[johnhemming]

So we're still looking for a source for data regarding capacity

What I would like is both data on capacity, but also data on population served (for the general trusts, not for specialists). I have got this for the regions now.

There probably is a source.

[servodude]

So we're still looking for a source for data regarding capacity

What I would like is both data on capacity, but also data on population served (for the general trusts, not for specialists). I have got this for the regions now.

There probably is a source.

Indeed! that would be pretty close to capacity per capita?

I'm sure someone has it somewhere (or at least I hope they do )
- probably not for our eyes unfortunately

-sd

[johnhemming]

- probably not for our eyes unfortunately

It is probably available through FoI.

[dealtn]

- probably not for our eyes unfortunately

It is probably available through FoI.

And probably out of date by the time your request provides you with the information too.

[johnhemming]

- probably not for our eyes unfortunately

It is probably available through FoI.

And probably out of date by the time your request provides you with the information too.

For these purposes it would probably be OK because we are not really trying to get things accurate to the nearest 1% or less.

[swill453]

New ONS figures out showing deaths in 2020 were 91,000 above recent average https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55629330 (breaking news at 9.45).

Scott.

[johnhemming]

Admissions down a bit to 10/1 going back from that date 3571, 3718. 3549, 3549. South West, however, up to a new peak from 277 to 279.
I saw quite a bit by trust in Wiltshire and Dorset. Trust figures are released weekly, however.

[jfgw]

New ONS figures out showing deaths in 2020 were 91,000 above recent average https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55629330 (breaking news at 9.45).

Scott.

2019 was low, however, so 2020 deaths would probably have been higher than the recent average even without Covid-19 (although, obviously, not by anything like as much).

viewtopic.php?f=98&t=27023&start=100#p375063


Julian F. G. W.

[jfgw]

An update on a previous graph (linear scale this time),

My graph.
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. : https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/


Julian F. G. W.

[swill453]

New ONS figures out showing deaths in 2020 were 91,000 above recent average https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55629330 (breaking news at 9.45).

2019 was low, however, so 2020 deaths would probably have been higher than the recent average even without Covid-19 (although, obviously, not by anything like as much).

viewtopic.php?f=98&t=27023&start=100#p375063

Countering that, 2020 would have been low too, without Covid. Flu deaths were down on average (on t'radio today, I don't have a reference).

Scott.

[redsturgeon]

New ONS figures out showing deaths in 2020 were 91,000 above recent average https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55629330 (breaking news at 9.45).

2019 was low, however, so 2020 deaths would probably have been higher than the recent average even without Covid-19 (although, obviously, not by anything like as much).

viewtopic.php?f=98&t=27023&start=100#p375063

Countering that, 2020 would have been low too, without Covid. Flu deaths were down on average (on t'radio today, I don't have a reference).

Scott.

I guess that the lockdowns had some impact on flu deaths as well as covid taking out some who would have died of flu too.

John

[servodude]

2019 was low, however, so 2020 deaths would probably have been higher than the recent average even without Covid-19 (although, obviously, not by anything like as much).

viewtopic.php?f=98&t=27023&start=100#p375063

Countering that, 2020 would have been low too, without Covid. Flu deaths were down on average (on t'radio today, I don't have a reference).

Scott.

I guess that the lockdowns had some impact on flu deaths as well as covid taking out some who would have died of flu too.

John

A good part of the "flu season" in the UK for 2020 would have been before lockdowns were a thing
- if there were to have been a seasonal spike in deaths from it you would have expected it to show by March (and the start of the next round Xmas time)

If you wanted to see the effect lockdown might have on flu you'd have to find data from somewhere that the COVID deaths were low (so as not to be overwhelming the data) to see if there was a change from expected (e.g. April to July 2020 Australia showed a >90% drop in flu deaths from the previous year)

-sd