Re: Coronavirus - Numbers and Statistics

[johnhemming]

Peaked or "peaking",

We do, as usual, have the issue about when we will know that this is the last surge until next autumn/winter.

It was interesting to see Cornwall only recently having an increase in admissions. Notwithstanding the uncertainty as to whether stay at home increases or reduces infections in the more rural areas. I do think it will now go down.

Some countries in Europe peaked in October/November. Others have been having later problems. In the end it is the same virus and once enough people have had it it will fade.

[staffordian]

Is anyone else puzzled, or perhaps to be more precise, frustrated, by some meaningless statistics which get wheeled out from time to time?

I'm thinking particularly of the recently quoted stat that on average, there is a new covid related hospital admission every thirty seconds.

How can this mean anything without quoting the number of Covid related cases being discharged?

Clearly if someone is, on average, being discharged every twenty five seconds, things are less bleak than if one is being discharged every two minutes.

Has anyone seen the corresponding discharge figures quoted alongside the admission figures?

[johnhemming]

I'm thinking particularly of the recently quoted stat that on average, there is a new covid related hospital admission every thirty seconds.

I am not really puzzled. It is the sort of story that is easy to get published. The fact that it does not actually tell us much is just part of the way the media works. (and will always work).

[chrissyr]

On the ITV news did Dominic Raab say they will vaccinate 90% of most vulnerable by mid Feb? What about the other 10%?

Chris

[staffordian]

On the ITV news did Dominic Raab say they will vaccinate 90% of most vulnerable by mid Feb? What about the other 10%?

Chris

Covid deniers?

Anti Vaxers?

Admin errors?

Those without NHS numbers or not registered with a GP?

[staffordian]

I'm thinking particularly of the recently quoted stat that on average, there is a new covid related hospital admission every thirty seconds.

I am not really puzzled. It is the sort of story that is easy to get published. The fact that it does not actually tell us much is just part of the way the media works. (and will always work).

Yes, I guess that's why my main reaction is frustration rather than puzzlement. But I heard the boss of the NHS quote said stat on the news, so it's not just how the media works; it's also what they are fed. I'd have assumed that Sir Simo Stevens would have been keen to promote accurate information rather than hyperbole.

I clearly have too high an opinion of those in power.

[johnhemming]

I'd have assumed that Sir Simon Stevens would have been keen to promote accurate information rather than hyperbole.

I clearly have too high an opinion of those in power.

His objective is to have a press story about how many people are going to hospital. There are 2,880 30 second periods in a day and hospital admissions more recently have all been over 3,000 hence it is a true statement and arguably accurate even if not precise.

This hook has got him a lot of press. Hence I do not criticise him for using this route.

It happens that I believe that at least in Birmingham they have encouraged ambulances to race around with their blue lights going to highlight to people on the ground that there is a medical problem. I am not such a fan of this, but I understand the reasoning and motivations. We did see one ambulance go up a road, turn around and come back down it without stopping to pick anyone up.

[swill453]

It happens that I believe that at least in Birmingham they have encouraged ambulances to race around with their blue lights going to highlight to people on the ground that there is a medical problem. I am not such a fan of this, but I understand the reasoning and motivations. We did see one ambulance go up a road, turn around and come back down it without stopping to pick anyone up.

Er, maybe they found they were in the wrong street? Other than seeing this, any other evidence of this alleged "racing around with blue lights"?

Scott.

[XFool]

It happens that I believe that at least in Birmingham they have encouraged ambulances to race around with their blue lights going to highlight to people on the ground that there is a medical problem. I am not such a fan of this, but I understand the reasoning and motivations.

???

We did see one ambulance go up a road, turn around and come back down it without stopping to pick anyone up.

When I had a stroke at a bus stop, an ambulance shot straight past on the other side of the road. Eventually it(?) returned on the same side of the road and stopped.

Were they grandstanding?

Pass!

[jfgw]

When I had a stroke at a bus stop, an ambulance shot straight past on the other side of the road. Eventually it(?) returned on the same side of the road and stopped.

Were they grandstanding?

Whatever they were doing, the deniers/sceptics would make the most of it.


Julian F. G. W.

[johnhemming]

Hospital admissions 16/1 3569. 3295, 3678, 3840, 4134

[Arborbridge]

It happens that I believe that at least in Birmingham they have encouraged ambulances to race around with their blue lights going to highlight to people on the ground that there is a medical problem. I am not such a fan of this, but I understand the reasoning and motivations. We did see one ambulance go up a road, turn around and come back down it without stopping to pick anyone up.

Er, maybe they found they were in the wrong street? Other than seeing this, any other evidence of this alleged "racing around with blue lights"?

Scott.

For someone who like facts and statistics, would it not be reasonable to ask what the evidence is which led John Hemming to this belief?

Arb

[XFool]

It happens that I believe that at least in Birmingham they have encouraged ambulances to race around with their blue lights going to highlight to people on the ground that there is a medical problem. I am not such a fan of this, but I understand the reasoning and motivations. We did see one ambulance go up a road, turn around and come back down it without stopping to pick anyone up.

Er, maybe they found they were in the wrong street? Other than seeing this, any other evidence of this alleged "racing around with blue lights"?

For someone who like facts and statistics, would it not be reasonable to ask what the evidence is which led John Hemming to this belief?

It would.

[servodude]

Er, maybe they found they were in the wrong street? Other than seeing this, any other evidence of this alleged "racing around with blue lights"?

For someone who like facts and statistics, would it not be reasonable to ask what the evidence is which led John Hemming to this belief?

It would.

was that not covered by "We did see one ambulance go up a road, turn around and come back down it without stopping to pick anyone up." ?

I can imagine a few ambulance drivers being out of their usual haunts (on the evidence that we know there are patients being redirected)
- so perhaps its that?

or perhaps indeed there are ambulance drivers out pretending they are busy

-sd

[XFool]

For someone who like facts and statistics, would it not be reasonable to ask what the evidence is which led John Hemming to this belief?

It would.

was that not covered by "We did see one ambulance go up a road, turn around and come back down it without stopping to pick anyone up." ?

Well, that's certainly evidence of an ambulance, and of it being driven on the public highway. So part of the way there, I suppose...

[jfgw]

I think that I have heard a few more sirens than usual; I don't normally keep count though.

When I called for an ambulance about a week ago, the crew told me that they were being diverted to a hospital 20 miles away. Diversions such as this would explain why more ambulances might be seen on main roads, but not so much local roads. In this instance, the patient was actually taken to the local hospital about two miles away.

The ambulance took about 15 to 20 minutes to arrive - about the same as usual. They didn't act as though they were rushed off their feet. This was 11pm so probably not their busiest time during a lockdown. The operator kept me on the line until the ambulance arrived; if they are busy, they have to hang up.


Julian F. G. W.

[jfgw]

Here is a graph of the number of Covid patients in hospital.

My graph. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. : https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/


Julian F. G. W.

[Mike4]

Er, maybe they found they were in the wrong street? Other than seeing this, any other evidence of this alleged "racing around with blue lights"?

For someone who like facts and statistics, would it not be reasonable to ask what the evidence is which led John Hemming to this belief?

It would.

A friend of mine is an ambulance driver. He says turning the blue lights on is tightly hemmed in with regulation and protocol and NEVER done done on the initiative of the driver. Running blue lights without authority from control is the highest level of disciplinary offence and it just isn't done even if you are really late for your tea break.

[servodude]

Here is a graph of the number of Covid patients in hospital.

My graph. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. : https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc ... version/3/


Julian F. G. W.

Thanks for this stuff!

I'm still trying to find a metric for capacity to put this in to context
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds
gives 2.5 beds per 1000 in the UK in 2017 (but depressingly not much of a audit trail as to how)
- but if true unless they've expanded capacity (inc. associated staff) significantly since it suggests it might be a bit of a squeeze at the moment

-sd

[GrahamPlatt]

Off topic, but potentially of interest to sd & johnhemming (exponential/gompertz)
https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-sum- ... r-20190206