Nimrod103 wrote:Mike4 wrote:servodude wrote:
I'd be really interested to see what their criteria for relaxation is
- whether it's driven by statistics, and which, and how measured?
- or by opinion and whose?
I think it would help if they could be clear about how and why they will make the decision
- more so than choosing a date and trying to make stuff fit to it
-sd
My impression is thay have no idea, other than balancing media pressure to drop all restrictions and get back to 'normal', with hospitals being rammed with dying patients.
Once the death rate is demonstrably on a downward trajectory, I'm expecting a headlong rush to cancel all restrictions just in time for the summer reduction in infection to be attributed to the vaccination programme. Rinse and repeat next winter as I'm really not convinced vaccinating 50% of the population is gonna get us to "herd immunity".
Surely the Govt criterion on reopening the economy is that there must be no chance of a need for a further lockdown again.
Govt scientists probably have the best view on that, and I am sure the Govt will follow their majority advice.
I agree but, after in my view a history of the Government going into lockdowns too slowly vs what many scientists were advising, I’m beginning to wonder whether Boris etc might this time err just a bit on the side of over-caution vs scientific advice on the basis that if they get it wrong this time and we end up back in lockdown towards the end of this year that would be a political atom bomb and if padding just a week or two onto deadlines and/or 5% more stringent thresholds on deaths, hospitalisations, vaccine progress or whatever metrics are used to start a countdown to the various stages of relaxation I think the Government might weigh the political calculation in favour of just a bit of extra caution.
Also, after so long in lockdown especially for those of us who were in tier 3 and above for a long time before Christmas something like tier 1, or even tier 2, plus strong mask restrictions and bans on major public gatherings still in place coupled with, I hope, nicer more outdoorsy spring/summer/autumn weather will still make the middle months of the year feel like fabulous freedom in comparison to the last 6 months or at least that’s how I will feel. This is why I’m not at all surprised to hear some chatter in the press over the last few days about mask and social distancing rules staying in place all the way through 2021. I suspect the Government weight well, for political reasons, be willing to go that slight bit further to try and reduce as much as it can the risk of the potential political suicide of another end-of-2021 national lockdown happening.
Whether the virus and its mutant offspring cooperate through mid and late 2021 is another matter of course.
- Julian