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Darwinian evolution

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
UncleEbenezer
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Darwinian evolution

#372816

Postby UncleEbenezer » January 3rd, 2021, 7:56 pm

We (should) know from regular colds more-or-less how infectious bugs spread. Proximity to an infected person, especially the breath. Substantially mitigated but far from entirely de-risked by decent ventilation.

Over the past nine months or so we've had isolation and "social distancing" making it harder for such bugs to propagate. So when a strain is better at dealing with those hurdles, Darwinian natural selection naturally favoured it, and it rapidly became a dominant strain. What could be more natural?

That of course is an untested hypothesis. How would one test it? Would anyone even notice, let alone remark on it, if a more infectious but non-serious strain of common cold had emerged for the same reason? Unlikely, because common colds go "below the radar" for collecting statistics at that kind of level. One doesn't medically test cold sufferers for anything, let alone new strains!

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Re: Darwinian evolution

#372817

Postby UncleEbenezer » January 3rd, 2021, 8:00 pm

Darwin part 2: the Vaccines.

We're told the vaccines are unexpectedly much more effective than the ‘flu jab.

Could that be because they’re new, and the coronavirus has not yet adapted to them as flu viruses have? In due course it'll evolve variants that can better-resist the vaccine. The 'flu jab could very well be a guide to a long-term steady-state performance of covid vaccines - until the population itself adapts and the disease becomes just another cold virus.

UncleEbenezer
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Re: Darwinian evolution

#372820

Postby UncleEbenezer » January 3rd, 2021, 8:03 pm

Darwin Part 3: the Award

Can we offer a Societal Darwin Award for societies that have got the worst of both worlds: both rampant covid and massive disruption to social, cultural and economic life? And that double down on failed policies? There are quite a few contenders!

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Re: Darwinian evolution

#373060

Postby funduffer » January 4th, 2021, 4:04 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:Darwin part 2: the Vaccines.

We're told the vaccines are unexpectedly much more effective than the ‘flu jab.

Could that be because they’re new, and the coronavirus has not yet adapted to them as flu viruses have? In due course it'll evolve variants that can better-resist the vaccine. The 'flu jab could very well be a guide to a long-term steady-state performance of covid vaccines - until the population itself adapts and the disease becomes just another cold virus.


Alternatively it could be the Covid vaccines have been created using new technology, compared to the old technology flu vaccines.

Novavax, who are trialling a new covid vaccine based on the spike protein, have also developed a flu vaccine, using the same technology which seems to be more effective than the standard flu vaccine:

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/n ... al-phase-3

Disclosure: I have a strong interest in Novavvax, as I am on their covid vaccine clinical trial!

FD

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Re: Darwinian evolution

#373116

Postby UncleEbenezer » January 4th, 2021, 6:19 pm

funduffer wrote:
UncleEbenezer wrote:Darwin part 2: the Vaccines.

We're told the vaccines are unexpectedly much more effective than the ‘flu jab.

Could that be because they’re new, and the coronavirus has not yet adapted to them as flu viruses have? In due course it'll evolve variants that can better-resist the vaccine. The 'flu jab could very well be a guide to a long-term steady-state performance of covid vaccines - until the population itself adapts and the disease becomes just another cold virus.


Alternatively it could be the Covid vaccines have been created using new technology, compared to the old technology flu vaccines.

Novavax, who are trialling a new covid vaccine based on the spike protein, have also developed a flu vaccine, using the same technology which seems to be more effective than the standard flu vaccine:

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/n ... al-phase-3

Disclosure: I have a strong interest in Novavvax, as I am on their covid vaccine clinical trial!

FD


A "new technology" 'flu vaccine would also be novel to the virus it targets. Therefore the same argument would indeed predict that it too be more effective than familiar vaccines. But it won't be novel forever, and the who knows how the virus will react?

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Re: Darwinian evolution

#373300

Postby Midsmartin » January 5th, 2021, 9:21 am

We're told the vaccines are unexpectedly much more effective than the ‘flu jab.

Could that be because they’re new, and the coronavirus has not yet adapted to them as flu viruses have? In due course it'll evolve variants that can better-resist the vaccine.


Yes, but influenza works differently from a coronavirus so you can't make a straight comparison.

We need an annual 'flu vaccine because the virus changes rapidly every year. But this isn't a *response* to the vaccine (or mostly not. It could have some effect). It's due just to 'flu biology.

The 'flu virus mutates speedily in any case, and can also infect multiple species. It also has the ability to undergo 're-assortment': where an animal has simultaneous infections of different strains, such as a human and a duck strain co-infecting a pig, genes from the different strains can re-combine in different ways to create a brand new strain, wildly different from previous ones. This is the big source of 'flu pandemic strains. I remember being taught that many 'flu pandemics arise in countries where humans and various domestic animals live in close proximity to each other, making this re-assortment more likely.

Heavyweight academic info here:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5578040/

The 'flu virus lacks a proof-reading function when it replicates its RNA - one reason for its high mutation rate. Animals and plants use proof-reading/error correcting when DNA replicates to reduce the error rate. Coronoaviruses though are a bit unusual in that they do have a proof-reading gene. So Coronaviruses mutate, but it's not in the same league as 'flu. Simply the short generation time, and the untold billions of particles means that there are still plentiful mutations about.

Here's a quote from a paper than explains proof-reading and mutation quite well:

"RNA virus replication typically has a high error rate (or low viral fidelity) that results in the virus existing as diverse populations of genome mutants or ‘‘quasispecies’’ (Denison et al., 2011). While low replicative fidelity allows the RNA viruses to adapt to different replicative environments and selective pressures, it is also associated with an increased chance of error catastrophe leading to viral extinction."
Cribbed from:
https://www.cell.com/molecular-cell/pdf/S1097-2765(20)30518-9.pdf

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Re: Darwinian evolution

#373333

Postby odysseus2000 » January 5th, 2021, 10:14 am

This is an interesting and long article on whether the Covid virus occurred by Darwinian processes or was an escape from a laboratory:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article ... heory.html

Regards,

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Re: Darwinian evolution

#447157

Postby pje16 » October 2nd, 2021, 10:03 am

not Covid related at all but as the post is caaled Darwinian, this d*ickhead must win a prize :lol:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-58771370

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Re: Darwinian evolution

#447169

Postby bungeejumper » October 2nd, 2021, 10:25 am

pje16 wrote:not Covid related at all but as the post is caaled Darwinian, this d*ickhead must win a prize :lol:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-58771370

A head case, obviously, but not as unusual as you might think. :| Known as pica, and quite common in prisons. https://www.menshealth.com/health/a1954 ... -disorder/

Anyway, nobody's going to accuse this guy of having a screw loose. He's got hundreds! :lol:

BJ

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Re: Darwinian evolution

#447175

Postby pje16 » October 2nd, 2021, 10:34 am

must admit I wasn't expecting to find it was a known medical condtion
tempted to call it Pica (mix) :lol:

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Re: Darwinian evolution

#447182

Postby servodude » October 2nd, 2021, 10:50 am

UncleEbenezer wrote:So when a strain is better at dealing with those hurdles, Darwinian natural selection naturally favoured it, and it rapidly became a dominant strain. What could be more natural?


Flip that thinking a bit and I'll agree

Darwinism doesn't favour anything - it works in the other direction, it filters stuff
- it doesn't make things arise or appear; it gets rid of variants

It's a subtle but important difference; not so much for the mechanics thereof but certainly is for understanding stuff
- e.g. social distancing did not cause Alpha/Delta to appear or proliferation, even if it did suppress earlier variants more efficiently

-sd

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Re: Darwinian evolution

#447190

Postby redsturgeon » October 2nd, 2021, 10:59 am

Nut bolts washers and screws.

John

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Re: Darwinian evolution

#447205

Postby servodude » October 2nd, 2021, 11:55 am

redsturgeon wrote:Nut bolts washers and screws.

John


I learned it as spectacles, testicles, wallet and watch
- must vary with region ;)
- sd

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Re: Darwinian evolution

#447217

Postby tjh290633 » October 2nd, 2021, 12:55 pm

servodude wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:Nut bolts washers and screws.

John


I learned it as spectacles, testicles, wallet and watch
- must vary with region ;)
- sd

Two different origins, I think. The first is about the lunatic who raped washerwomen then ran away (Nut screws washers bolts).

The second is about a Rabbi crossing himself and was "Teeth, testicles, wallet, watch".

But I digress.

TJH

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Re: Darwinian evolution

#447296

Postby UncleEbenezer » October 2nd, 2021, 5:34 pm

bungeejumper wrote:A head case, obviously,
BJ

A nutcase, one might say? Bit screwed up.

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Re: Darwinian evolution

#447303

Postby Stompa » October 2nd, 2021, 5:47 pm

An MRI would have sorted him out.....

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Re: Darwinian evolution

#447316

Postby bungeejumper » October 2nd, 2021, 6:16 pm

Stompa wrote:An MRI would have sorted him out.....

LOL, wouldn't it just? They ask you whether you've got body piercings or deeply lodged bullets before they put you into the big magnetic machine, but I don't remember being quizzed about a whole Meccano set. :lol:

BJ

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Re: Darwinian evolution

#450970

Postby XFool » October 18th, 2021, 11:40 am

pje16 wrote:not Covid related at all but as the post is caaled Darwinian, this d*ickhead must win a prize :lol:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-58771370

Perhaps he's evolving into a robot?

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Re: Darwinian evolution

#450974

Postby pje16 » October 18th, 2021, 11:46 am

I just thought he was a bit nuts :lol:


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