Details of how the UK will vaccinate millions per week

[Arborbridge]

As usual this kind of stuff is way above my pay grade. However, isn't the requirement for 2m per week not per day?

AiY

Quite correct. My apologies. Luckily for my initial estimate, Mike4 has suggested that each jabber will need 6 support staff to get the patients organised and marshalled, so my x7 error is balanced out by the +6 per jabber requirement.


VRD

You must be a right little Kepler

[Arborbridge]

I think we need Gengulphus to run some numbers over this now

I'm guessing the waiting room wait doesn't shift the number tremendously other than a 15 minute stagger at the start of the day/shift. Thanks for the information I'm sure it will keep us mulling for another few hours

Happy New Year

AiY

I don't think we need the brainpower of our Gulphy for a calculation as trivial as this. If they are churning them through one every two minutes, there only needs to be a waiting room big enough for 7.5 people for each to wait for 15 mins. (15/2)

but I think we need Gulphy not for the arithmetic but for the maths of the "ifs"

Frankly, the target seem possible but improbable.

Which reminds me, I keep hearing that satisfying news that 1.5 million have been jabbed already. But then I reflect that they were saying 1.3 million had been injected last week, then I feel less satisfied.
I hope we'll know more when they release the daily figures from Mr Z.

[monabri]

From Mr Google

"In 2019, almost 301 thousand doctors were registered in the United Kingdom (UK)"

From Wiki

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nursing_i ... ice%20(NHS).

"There are over 500,000 nurses in the United Kingdom and they work in a variety of settings, such as hospitals, health centres, nursing homes, hospices, communities, and academia, with most nurses working for the National Health Service (NHS)."

So, if each of the 800k professionals gives just 1 jab per day....

Alternatively, deploy 1 in 20 full time (if most of the non Covid stuff is being cancelled, then surely 1 in 20 nurses become free?)

40k professionals each working a 30 hour week at a rate of 6 jabs per hour (one every 10 mins).

40,000 x 30 x 6 = 7.2 million vaccinations per week.

Then we can bring in the Army medics and use retired nurses/doctors.

Crack on !


(I suspect vaccine availability might be the issue).

[dealtn]

In addition, this problem with the Pfizer vaccine coming in 975-dose slabs that all get thawed in one go means any given vaccine day must be subject to cancellation if the appointment teams fail to make say, 1,100 appointments for that day. Probably one in ten people won't turn up which means a wasted dose if they don't over=appoint.

The -70C is a constraint but I think (having read it somewhere but can't recall the source) that once thawed the vaccine has a "shelf life" of 5 days. They aim to use up the 975 delivery in 3-4 days, so your calculation is possibly out by some factor.

[Mike4]

(I suspect vaccine availability might be the issue).

I think we may have nearly run out already given the comments of Dr John Campbell the other day. This would explain Arb's disquiet about 1.3m done in the first couple of weeks then 0.2m last week.

[Mike4]

In addition, this problem with the Pfizer vaccine coming in 975-dose slabs that all get thawed in one go means any given vaccine day must be subject to cancellation if the appointment teams fail to make say, 1,100 appointments for that day. Probably one in ten people won't turn up which means a wasted dose if they don't over=appoint.

The -70C is a constraint but I think (having read it somewhere but can't recall the source) that once thawed the vaccine has a "shelf life" of 5 days. They aim to use up the 975 delivery in 3-4 days, so your calculation is possibly out by some factor.

By Jove I think you're right, ISTR reading the same back when it was first approved.

Let's hope no-one demands a reference!

[UncleEbenezer]

Important to remember all this work can be done in parallel. Doctors' surgeries probably can find suitable patients, and arrange 20-40 appointments per hour.

Waiting indoors - sharing all their germs including potentially covid? That kind of throughput isn't going to happen without quite substantial queueing.

Or waiting outdoors in the cold and wet?

[vrdiver]

Important to remember all this work can be done in parallel. Doctors' surgeries probably can find suitable patients, and arrange 20-40 appointments per hour.

Waiting indoors - sharing all their germs including potentially covid? That kind of throughput isn't going to happen without quite substantial queueing.

Or waiting outdoors in the cold and wet?

My local surgery has a sign up saying to wait in your car, telephone a specific number to check-in, then wait to be called for your appointment.

Not sure what you'd do if arriving without a car or phone - I suspect just what we used to do - march in and announce yourself to reception...

Anyway, the point is that the number of people waiting indoors could be minimised, e.g. by prioritising them over the in-car patients, just so as to get them out as quickly as possible once they'd arrived.

Just a thought...

VRD

[MickR]

I think the constraints are in the supply of the vaccine, rather than the delivery. Also when I had my flu jab done last month, it was all done at my Health Centre so you were literally ticked off a list as you came through the door and that was it. My lad had his Corona virus jab last week ( health worker) at a hospital, and he said he spent most time on the paperwork beforehand confirming his identity and signing paperwork. So agree, most of the constraint in throughput will be the admin, not the jabbing

Also need to bear in mind that the NHS are targeting care home and over 90's which will be very slow. They will zip through the 50 and 60 year olds by comparison

Mick

[kiloran]

My sister works in admin in a hospital and had her first jab last week, at the hospital.

My mum lives just 2 miles from the same hospital (a big one, in the midlands) and got a letter from the NHS to say "phone this number or go via the website" to book her appointment. I just tried that for her. The nearest option was Birmingham, 20 miles away. Or she could go to Bristol, Stevenage, London or Manchester.

Mum is 97! Might take a while to get the country vaccinated at this rate.

I think I'll be making a few phone calls tomorrow

[Edit to add.....my sister called the number in the letter received by mum, and the guy she spoke to could only log onto the website to get the same answer we got. He had no other options to escalate or whatever}

--kiloran

[kiloran]

My sister works in admin in a hospital and had her first jab last week, at the hospital.

My mum lives just 2 miles from the same hospital (a big one, in the midlands) and got a letter from the NHS to say "phone this number or go via the website" to book her appointment. I just tried that for her. The nearest option was Birmingham, 20 miles away. Or she could go to Bristol, Stevenage, London or Manchester.

Mum is 97! Might take a while to get the country vaccinated at this rate.

I think I'll be making a few phone calls tomorrow

[Edit to add.....my sister called the number in the letter received by mum, and the guy she spoke to could only log onto the website to get the same answer we got. He had no other options to escalate or whatever}

--kiloran

By chance, I was just looking at the BBC News website and found this: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-55605149

Sounds like the letter is just(!) appallingly badly worded

--kiloran

[Bouleversee]

My sister works in admin in a hospital and had her first jab last week, at the hospital.

My mum lives just 2 miles from the same hospital (a big one, in the midlands) and got a letter from the NHS to say "phone this number or go via the website" to book her appointment. I just tried that for her. The nearest option was Birmingham, 20 miles away. Or she could go to Bristol, Stevenage, London or Manchester.

Mum is 97! Might take a while to get the country vaccinated at this rate.

I think I'll be making a few phone calls tomorrow

[Edit to add.....my sister called the number in the letter received by mum, and the guy she spoke to could only log onto the website to get the same answer we got. He had no other options to escalate or whatever}

--kiloran

That makes me want to weep, not just out of sympathy with your Mum and your family, but because of the sheer incompetence and stupidity of the NHS in this respect. Which idiot is responsible? Do let us know what happens next. Also see my post on the Vaccine thread earlier today which questioned sending out these letters.

I have just been alerted to your 2nd post. I now want to find out who is responsible and shoot them. Apart from anything else, what a waste of money when emails and texts can be sent for nothing and a phone call can sort the matter instantly, as in my case. I would not be entirely surprised if I received the letter, although I had the jab on Dec. 31, since I get an email and a 4 page letter 3 times every time there is a change of policy re shielding.

[dealtn]

My sister works in admin in a hospital and had her first jab last week, at the hospital.

My mum lives just 2 miles from the same hospital (a big one, in the midlands) and got a letter from the NHS to say "phone this number or go via the website" to book her appointment. I just tried that for her. The nearest option was Birmingham, 20 miles away. Or she could go to Bristol, Stevenage, London or Manchester.

Mum is 97! Might take a while to get the country vaccinated at this rate.

I think I'll be making a few phone calls tomorrow

[Edit to add.....my sister called the number in the letter received by mum, and the guy she spoke to could only log onto the website to get the same answer we got. He had no other options to escalate or whatever}

--kiloran

That makes me want to weep, not just out of sympathy with your Mum and your family, but because of the sheer incompetence and stupidity of the NHS in this respect. Which idiot is responsible? Do let us know what happens next. Also see my post on the Vaccine thread earlier today which questioned sending out these letters.

I have just been alerted to your 2nd post. I now want to find out who is responsible and shoot them. Apart from anything else, what a waste of money when emails and texts can be sent for nothing and a phone call can sort the matter instantly, as in my case. I would not be entirely surprised if I received the letter, although I had the jab on Dec. 31, since I get an email and a 4 page letter 3 times every time there is a change of policy re shielding.

I appreciate it's not ideal, but what is wrong with an appointment 20 miles away? I would drive my mum that distance rather than have the delay of waiting for a closer one. I am aware of them travelling further than their local hospital for treatment in the past.

[kiloran]

I appreciate it's not ideal, but what is wrong with an appointment 20 miles away? I would drive my mum that distance rather than have the delay of waiting for a closer one. I am aware of them travelling further than their local hospital for treatment in the past.

Living 350 miles away and locked-down doesn't really allow me to help mum, and such a trip is not easy for my sister. I hope to hear tomorrow that something closer can be arranged, even if it means waiting a couple of weeks. Mum is safely isolated and at little risk for the moment, thank goodness

--kiloran

[dealtn]

I appreciate it's not ideal, but what is wrong with an appointment 20 miles away? I would drive my mum that distance rather than have the delay of waiting for a closer one. I am aware of them travelling further than their local hospital for treatment in the past.

Living 350 miles away and locked-down doesn't really allow me to help mum, and such a trip is not easy for my sister. I hope to hear tomorrow that something closer can be arranged, even if it means waiting a couple of weeks. Mum is safely isolated and at little risk for the moment, thank goodness

--kiloran

Of course I wish the best for her, but I assumed a 2 mile journey to the hospital, at 97, wouldn't be radically different. My assumption she would be getting a lift, or taxi, for the 2 mile trip so other than a bit more time, and a little more money possibly, it wouldn't be significantly different.

Maybe my thinking wasn't the same as others on this.

[UncleEbenezer]

I have just been alerted to your 2nd post. I now want to find out who is responsible and shoot them. Apart from anything else, what a waste of money when emails and texts can be sent for nothing and a phone call can sort the matter instantly, as in my case. I would not be entirely surprised if I received the letter, although I had the jab on Dec. 31, since I get an email and a 4 page letter 3 times every time there is a change of policy re shielding.

Anything electronic is fraught with possible problems, starting with technophobia in the old, and moving through fraud risk to physical problems like failing hearing that might give someone a problem with a phone call. As with non-local appointments, it may suit some but be impossible for others.

Lesson for the future: implement different communication channels and encourage people to sign up for one that works for them. Individual GP practices may already do that, but it's probably too sensible for the NHS as a whole. And is there anyone in the NHS who's got to grips with how to prevent impersonation and other fraud beyond the level of "contact us to [do whatever]" (even that of course has potential - a fraudster helpfully giving contact details might easily catch some people).

[stevensfo]

In addition, this problem with the Pfizer vaccine coming in 975-dose slabs that all get thawed in one go means any given vaccine day must be subject to cancellation if the appointment teams fail to make say, 1,100 appointments for that day. Probably one in ten people won't turn up which means a wasted dose if they don't over=appoint.

The -70C is a constraint but I think (having read it somewhere but can't recall the source) that once thawed the vaccine has a "shelf life" of 5 days. They aim to use up the 975 delivery in 3-4 days, so your calculation is possibly out by some factor.

The temperature is no constraint at all. Plenty of medical freezers work at that temperature. I worked with DNA and a little bit with RNA (much more fragile and bloody difficult to work with!) for about 10 years and although the low temperature is important, so is the time to let it thaw. Much safer to let it thaw very slowly. An analogy is that scene in a few movies where something or someone gets frozen with liquid nitrogen and then smashed into pieces, either physically or by high temperature. That happens on a molecular scale as well! It's called 'shearing'.

However, we should not overlook the importance of the 2nd (booster) injection. Without that, there's no point in vaccinating at all.

Steve

[dealtn]

In addition, this problem with the Pfizer vaccine coming in 975-dose slabs that all get thawed in one go means any given vaccine day must be subject to cancellation if the appointment teams fail to make say, 1,100 appointments for that day. Probably one in ten people won't turn up which means a wasted dose if they don't over=appoint.

The -70C is a constraint but I think (having read it somewhere but can't recall the source) that once thawed the vaccine has a "shelf life" of 5 days. They aim to use up the 975 delivery in 3-4 days, so your calculation is possibly out by some factor.

The temperature is no constraint at all. Plenty of medical freezers work at that temperature. I worked with DNA and a little bit with RNA (much more fragile and bloody difficult to work with!) for about 10 years and although the low temperature is important, so is the time to let it thaw. Much safer to let it thaw very slowly. An analogy is that scene in a few movies where something or someone gets frozen with liquid nitrogen and then smashed into pieces, either physically or by high temperature. That happens on a molecular scale as well! It's called 'shearing'.

However, we should not overlook the importance of the 2nd (booster) injection. Without that, there's no point in vaccinating at all.

Steve

Are such medical freezers available and in all the vaccination points? The nearest vaccination point to me, where I drove a close neighbour for his vaccination just after New Year, wasn't in a healthcare facility at all, but a commercial premises. I would be surpised if a medical freezer (or any freezer) was available in that building. That would indicate to me at least, that there was "some constraint" not "no constraint".

Why do you think there is "no point" in vaccinating at all without a 2nd dose? The first dose provides some efficacy, and whilst no detail of the drop off in that efficacy has been produced publically to date (to my knowledge) that doesn't equate with "no point". Besides is anyone suggesting, or expecting, only single doses as the proposed, or likely outcome?

[UncleEbenezer]

Of course I wish the best for her, but I assumed a 2 mile journey to the hospital, at 97, wouldn't be radically different. My assumption she would be getting a lift, or taxi, for the 2 mile trip so other than a bit more time, and a little more money possibly, it wouldn't be significantly different.

Maybe my thinking wasn't the same as others on this.

I should imagine more nonagenarians can manage 2 miles than 20 miles without assistance.

Taxi? It's a fearsome cost. If it's not part of your regular lifestyle, you'll have to psyche yourself up to pay it (repeat after me: this is a one-off. No, two-off: there and back. No, wait, then there's the second jab: YOUR WIFE IS A BIG HIPPO)! And if you've been shielding for nearly a year, why throw it away to sit next to a driver whose close contacts - and hence likely risk - are going to be well above average?

[Bouleversee]

Dealtn -

What is wrong with it is that it assumes that all old people, including 97 year olds, are capable of getting themselves to a strange hospital 20 miles or more away in icy weather.. I certainly would not have been able to and I am much younger.. It was bad enough driving to my local hospital in the dark. I would not risk being shut in a car with anyone else. Now that the AZN jab is available, I don't understand why district nurses can't visit the very elderly or disabled in their homes and give them the jab. The one in charge of my late husband's care retired on full pension in her fifties. Surely some could be persuaded to do it or all those retired doctors who volunteered but were deterred by a ludicrous form they were asked to complete.

It makes one wonder whether it is a deliberate plan to delay things till they have enough vaccine. If you listen to the news, you will hear plenty of others complaining about this.