False and misleading claims about Covid

[Mike4]

I'm interested in what happened to Cornwall towards the end of the year. I've seen it mentioned that the infection rate increased coincidentally or not with the November lockdown, and I certainly noticed Cornwall turning "dark" on the chart. What's special about Cornwall, I wonder, at this time? Cornwall and the Isle of White had been amongst the lowest areas up until recently, then quite quickly both deteriorated - despite neither being close to the eastward march of the new variant.

I don't know about Cornwall, but have you read the following article about the IoW?

Why was the Isle of Wight left so vulnerable to Covid catastrophe?
Hannah Ewens

The Guardian

Our island has an ageing population and one small hospital. [i]Allowing people to travel from tier 4 areas has had tragic results[/i]

A first class illustration of why the IoW should have declared UDI and shut it's borders to the outside world...

[Arborbridge]

I'm interested in what happened to Cornwall towards the end of the year. I've seen it mentioned that the infection rate increased coincidentally or not with the November lockdown, and I certainly noticed Cornwall turning "dark" on the chart. What's special about Cornwall, I wonder, at this time? Cornwall and the Isle of White had been amongst the lowest areas up until recently, then quite quickly both deteriorated - despite neither being close to the eastward march of the new variant.

I don't know about Cornwall, but have you read the following article about the IoW?

Why was the Isle of Wight left so vulnerable to Covid catastrophe?
Hannah Ewens

The Guardian

Our island has an ageing population and one small hospital. [i]Allowing people to travel from tier 4 areas has had tragic results[/i]

A first class illustration of why the IoW should have declared UDI and shut it's borders to the outside world...

Thanks to both of you, as I hadn't seen that. All anecdotal evidence but it supports the commonsense view that isolation (and lockdowns) work and taking the foot off the brake accelerates the rate of infection. It's the way my chart looks too. The fall and rise correlates well with the lockdown evolution, and the bursting forth over Christmas pretty well confirms it. Cornwall did not accelerate due to lockdown, but after it was out of lockdown.

Arb.

[Backache]

I wonder if you can point me to any papers about coronavirus infections recurring in the same person. I accept that there are coronavirus infections that recur. It would be helpful to have papers on that as well.
[/quote]
The common cold unit did work on it ages ago and I don't have the papers.

[UncleEbenezer]

What's special about Cornwall, I wonder, at this time? Cornwall and the Isle of White had been amongst the lowest areas up until recently, then quite quickly both deteriorated - despite neither being close to the eastward march of the new variant.

Arb.

It got lots of publicity for being Tier 1. That in turn brought a Barnard Castle effect.

It was still in Tier 1 well after its incidence had risen above Devon.

No, I have no proof. It just seems a reasonable speculation. Arguably supported by similar patterns elsewhere (not just IOW): Liverpool was the only one of our really big cities in Tier 2 after it had become poster-child for a Labour-run city doing a deal with Tory government, and now seems to top the national table.

However, there is another explanation[1]: random variability at low levels (for a cold-like virus) of infection combined with reversion to the mean. Speaking from the (hitherto) relative safety of Devon, that's not reassuring.

[1] Of course, both explanations probably apply.

[johnhemming]

What's special about Cornwall, I wonder, at this time? Cornwall and the Isle of White had been amongst the lowest areas up until recently, then quite quickly both deteriorated - despite neither being close to the eastward march of the new variant.

Arb.

It got lots of publicity for being Tier 1. That in turn brought a Barnard Castle effect.

It was still in Tier 1 well after its incidence had risen above Devon.

It is difficult to work out what the effect of any changes in terms of restrictions are.

Taking the process of lockdown for example,

If this increases the transmissibility of the virus you would expect to see an increase in the second derivative of hospital admissions about 14 days after the change. If if reduces the transmissibility you would expect to see a reduction. Now it may be that with lockdown and even if lockdown does reduce the transmissibility that still insufficient people have been infected to bring the replication number to 1 or below. Hence that will take some time.

If we look at the lockdown dates I think they are
23rd March - some months later when everything had calmed down anyway
5th November - 2nd December
22nd December - still going on.

Looking at Cornwall
The first wave peaks on 17th April, on the 7 day average it dipped before that 8-12 April
The second peak is on 14th December, that wave appears to be starting 27th November.
The third wave starts really on 2nd Jan and peaks so far on 7th Jan.

If we therefore, add a fortnight to the lockdown dates
we get 6th April,
19th November - 16th December
and start on 5th Jan.

So what it looks like is that Cornwall was peaking around 4-7 April and then going back down, but then it accelerated again.
The second wave does seem to correlate with the lockdown dates displaced
On the third item I think the jury is out at the moment.

However, the numbers are small and not necessarily that statistically reliable.

What I think could be said is that for Cornwall it is not clear whether stay at home increases transmission or reduces it. Perhaps the balance is towards it being increased, but we need to see the figures for the next week. If that goes up first it does appear to be driven by stay at home.

[johnhemming]

The common cold unit did work on it ages ago and I don't have the papers.

I would assume the reproduction number for the other Coronaviruses is less than Covid. Hence one would expect over time for the infection rates to average around what the herd immunity threshold would be.

[Arborbridge]

johnhemming

I'm not convinced hospital admissions are necessarily the best numbers to look at, because it's the infection rates where the first effects of lockdown will be noticed - admissions are a secondary effect, likely to be smeared out by other factors. Taking whole county numbers for my chart and seven day averages mitigates the problem of small case numbers. Zooming in on the government's map shows the problem of lumpiness on any smaller scale.

If you look as the chart I published three things are clear: infection rates fall after lockdown; infection rates rise after unlock; Cornwall (and IOW, not shown) suffered an outsized increase compared with neighbouring Devon.
That fact that Cornwall and Devon behaved differently demonstrates that there is more than a change due to lockdown which was uniform for both regions.

I think the expression "plain as a pikestaff" comes to mind.

Arb.

[Lootman]

I'm interested in what happened to Cornwall towards the end of the year. I've seen it mentioned that the infection rate increased coincidentally or not with the November lockdown, and I certainly noticed Cornwall turning "dark" on the chart. What's special about Cornwall, I wonder, at this time? Cornwall and the Isle of White had been amongst the lowest areas up until recently, then quite quickly both deteriorated - despite neither being close to the eastward march of the new variant.

I don't know about Cornwall

I visited friends in Cornwall in October. The thing that struck me was how relaxed and sanguine everyone there was about the virus. For most practical purposes life was going on as it was before the virus. Pubs and restaurants were busy, although with some distancing employed. Nobody inside them were wearing masks because, well, you cannot eat or drink with a mask on. Where masks were theoretically required, it was not enforced and not everyone obeyed the rule. And people weren't discussing the issue much.

To be honest it was a welcome change from the paranoia felt in some parts of the country and, as such, the trip was a good break.

So whilst I have argued against lockdowns that are too strict and which appear to have only short-term benefits, the opposite is not the solution either. I think Cornwall suffered both from being too lax and for being a destination of choice for people from elsewhere seeking to escape the madness.

Too much lockdown causes resentment and disobedience. Too little leaves you exposed. There is a Goldilocks solution in the middle somewhere but we never discover it because we keep changing it and so do not know what works and what does not.

[Arborbridge]

Incidentally, the chart pretty much confirms my thought at the time: Johnson, in his eagerness to get back to normal, unlocked too soon in December. It was a blunder: the lockdown was biting quite well but unlocking lead to rapid rises which compounded with the higher infection rate of the new variant. Fortunately for him, he can say the increase was caused not by his action, but by the new variant.
Later, we had the delayed reaction of going back into a semi lockdown (the Tier 4 episode) which it was soon realised was just not good enough.

Even now, the lockdown may not be effective enough to stop the spread quickly: as witness the traffic which is almost normal instead of being worthy of the name lockdown. Well, hopefully this semi lockdown and the number of folk being jabbed should show an effect. In my local area there are tentative signs that the infection rate is slowing - it might even be "peaking".

Arb.

[Arborbridge]

I visited friends in Cornwall in October. The thing that struck me was how relaxed and sanguine everyone there was about the virus. For most practical purposes life was going on as it was before the virus. Pubs and restaurants were busy, although with some distancing employed. Nobody inside them were wearing masks because, well, you cannot eat or drink with a mask on. Where masks were theoretically required, it was not enforced and not everyone obeyed the rule. And people weren't discussing the issue much.

Interesting observations, but my memory isn't what it used to be and I can't remember what life was like where I live in October! What were the rules in Cornwall at that time? wasn't Tier 1 or 2 fairly relaxed anyway?
But certainly relaxing too soon makes things worse, and as you say the problem is bringing the population along with the regulations. I wonder, as you say, if the isolation mindset of the cornish went to their heads whereas in Devon they were a little more worldly. Mind you, going down there for a break, if thousands did likewise, could have been the cause of their demise too.

On December 2nd Johnson should have just extended longer, instead of which he tried to save face rather than admit he got the date wrong.

Arb.

[Lootman]

I visited friends in Cornwall in October. The thing that struck me was how relaxed and sanguine everyone there was about the virus. For most practical purposes life was going on as it was before the virus. Pubs and restaurants were busy, although with some distancing employed. Nobody inside them were wearing masks because, well, you cannot eat or drink with a mask on. Where masks were theoretically required, it was not enforced and not everyone obeyed the rule. And people weren't discussing the issue much.

Interesting observations, but my memory isn't what it used to be and I can't remember what life was like where I live in October! What were the rules in Cornwall at that time? wasn't Tier 1 or 2 fairly relaxed anyway?

This was before the numbered tiers were introduced. As it turned out it was the tail end of the period beginning with the July relaxation of the rules and ending with the introduction of the second lockdown in November (?).

As best I recall the tiers were introduced when the one-month November lockdown ended, and things have been changing ever since.

[Mike4]

I'm interested in what happened to Cornwall towards the end of the year. I've seen it mentioned that the infection rate increased coincidentally or not with the November lockdown, and I certainly noticed Cornwall turning "dark" on the chart. What's special about Cornwall, I wonder, at this time? Cornwall and the Isle of White had been amongst the lowest areas up until recently, then quite quickly both deteriorated - despite neither being close to the eastward march of the new variant.

I don't know about Cornwall

I visited friends in Cornwall in October. The thing that struck me was how relaxed and sanguine everyone there was about the virus. For most practical purposes life was going on as it was before the virus. Pubs and restaurants were busy, although with some distancing employed. Nobody inside them were wearing masks because, well, you cannot eat or drink with a mask on. Where masks were theoretically required, it was not enforced and not everyone obeyed the rule. And people weren't discussing the issue much.

To be honest it was a welcome change from the paranoia felt in some parts of the country and, as such, the trip was a good break.

So whilst I have argued against lockdowns that are too strict and which appear to have only short-term benefits, the opposite is not the solution either. I think Cornwall suffered both from being too lax and for being a destination of choice for people from elsewhere seeking to escape the madness.

Too much lockdown causes resentment and disobedience. Too little leaves you exposed. There is a Goldilocks solution in the middle somewhere but we never discover it because we keep changing it and so do not know what works and what does not.

The big factor with lockdowns you seem to be in denial about is the timing of them. Had we had each of our lockdowns a month sooner when the experts first started calling for them, the same lockdowns would probably have been a whole lot more effective.

So effective in fact, that you would have been complaining they were an over-reaction.

Oh, hang on...

[PinkDalek]

I visited friends in Cornwall in October. ... This was before the numbered tiers were introduced. As it turned out it was the tail end of the period beginning with the July relaxation of the rules and ending with the introduction of the second lockdown in November (?).

As best I recall the tiers were introduced when the one-month November lockdown ended, and things have been changing ever since.

Three tier system [England] introduced wef 14 or 17 October 2020 (can't quite recall) but it probably didn't impact your Cornish visit as you were already there or had already returned somewhere or other.

[Lootman]

I visited friends in Cornwall in October. ... This was before the numbered tiers were introduced. As it turned out it was the tail end of the period beginning with the July relaxation of the rules and ending with the introduction of the second lockdown in November (?).

As best I recall the tiers were introduced when the one-month November lockdown ended, and things have been changing ever since.

Three tier system [England] introduced wef 14 or 17 October 2020 (can't quite recall) but it probably didn't impact your Cornish visit as you were already there or had already returned somewhere or other.

Ah, OK, I didn't remember that. My trip there was early October.

[PinkDalek]

Quite a helpful summary at Wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_COVID-19_tier_regulations_in_England but given this Topic is entitled False and misleading claims about Covid I'm not claiming it contains any of those!

[Lootman]

Totally missing the point. A better analogy is that three times you apply the brakes and the vehicle doesn't stop. And then you apply the brakes a 4th time hoping the result will be different.

Totalling missing the point. I apply the brakes of my car all the time when I'm driving - haven't killed anyone yet. Should I give up bothering?

I'm going to find a pub, pull over and wait till they've finished building the road.

Now you are both just being silly.

So have either of you EVER opposed a lockdown because you thought it was too strict?

I am guessing not. Just curious.

[swill453]

Now you are both just being silly.

So have either of you EVER opposed a lockdown because you thought it was too strict?

I am guessing not. Just curious.

From a (very) high level, looking back over the past year, we've had lockdowns of varying degrees of strictness, and still had the best part of 100,000 people die of Covid. This could be compared to, say, 30,000 in a bad flu year when we've long had a vaccine and don't do lockdowns.

There's surely an argument that over-strictness of lockdowns hasn't really been the issue...

Scott.

[XFool]

So whilst I have argued against lockdowns that are too strict and which appear to have only short-term benefits, the opposite is not the solution either. I think Cornwall suffered both from being too lax and for being a destination of choice for people from elsewhere seeking to escape the madness.

Too much lockdown causes resentment and disobedience. Too little leaves you exposed. There is a Goldilocks solution in the middle somewhere but we never discover it because we keep changing it and so do not know what works and what does not.

While perhaps we may feel such a Godilocks Path exists, or ought to (whether it does or not!), it may in practice always be unfeasible to locate and then to stay on the golden pathway.

[Backache]

The common cold unit did work on it ages ago and I don't have the papers.

I would assume the reproduction number for the other Coronaviruses is less than Covid. Hence one would expect over time for the infection rates to average around what the herd immunity threshold would be.

The R nought cannot have been measured as it is the number in a population that is naive to the virus the Rt I doubt has been measured and will vary considerably with the time of year and how recent the most recent infections were.

[johnhemming]

The R nought cannot have been measured as it is the number in a population that is naive to the virus the Rt I doubt has been measured and will vary considerably with the time of year and how recent the most recent infections were.

Is there any published research as to the level of such infections in the UK?