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Where's our Tier 1?

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
XFool
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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#409591

Postby XFool » May 5th, 2021, 4:05 pm

Lootman wrote:
dealtn wrote:
XFool wrote:I'm not sure. :)

I'm pretty sure most people are familiar with the terminology - the words. But, from reading many comments about the "pandemic", I continue to be considerably less sure about the proportion of people who fully comprehend the meaning and implications of the fact of the "pandemic".

Am I wrong? I'm not sure...

Well "fully" is a pretty high hurdle! I am sure most understand both the meaning and implications to a large degree though.

No doubt they will counter that if you aren't living in fear about the virus then you "don't understand it".

I never thought that there would be people who miss the virus when it went away. I guess in some sense they needed it. It made them feel more alive?

"Strawman argument number 99!"

Plus:

QED ;)

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#409600

Postby dealtn » May 5th, 2021, 4:26 pm

XFool wrote:
dealtn wrote:
XFool wrote:I'm not sure. :)

I'm pretty sure most people are familiar with the terminology - the words. But, from reading many comments about the "pandemic", I continue to be considerably less sure about the proportion of people who fully comprehend the meaning and implications of the fact of the "pandemic".

Am I wrong? I'm not sure...

Well "fully" is a pretty high hurdle! I am sure most understand both the meaning and implications to a large degree though.

Then why are there so many (I don't mean just on TLF) who, by their comments, seem to think they know more than the relevant experts do?

Though, thinking about it - it was ever thus... :roll:


Well I can't answer for others, and without examples I don't know what you are referring to. Indeed with so many supposed experts even it is difficult to know which ones are "relevant". I suspect there won't be agreement on that between us either. It appears to me that most here are aware of it being a pandemic (or epidemic) and understand what that means.

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#409605

Postby Lootman » May 5th, 2021, 4:28 pm

XFool wrote:
Lootman wrote:
dealtn wrote:Well "fully" is a pretty high hurdle! I am sure most understand both the meaning and implications to a large degree though.

No doubt they will counter that if you aren't living in fear about the virus then you "don't understand it".

I never thought that there would be people who miss the virus when it went away. I guess in some sense they needed it. It made them feel more alive?

"Strawman argument number 99!"

Whenever someone replies "Strawman" and nothing else, thinking that they have by that rhetorical device somehow instantly won a debate, I usually conclude that I just won the debate.

If you claim that someone who holds a different viewpoint "doesn't understand" or "doesn't get it" then you are really saying nothing more than "I think I am right". Which of course is true, but equally applicable to everyone.

If the daily death tool continues to be in single digits, then there can be no argument for not continuing to "vaccinate and ease", which has been the successful strategy for several months now. I am not clear what alternative strategy you are advocating for, whether based on paranoia or not. If you have a strategy, do please outline it so that we can critique it. But the generic spreading of fear doesn't appear to be a viable one that would garner much support.

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#409616

Postby XFool » May 5th, 2021, 4:56 pm

Lootman wrote:
XFool wrote:"Strawman argument number 99!"

Whenever someone replies "Strawman" and nothing else, thinking that they have by that rhetorical device somehow instantly won a debate, I usually conclude that I just won the debate.

Yeah. That figures!
The "QED" was not related to my "Strawman" comment. :)

BTW. Whenever anyone pushes forward a strawman type 'argument', I reckon they mustn't have anything better to offer.

Lootman wrote:If you claim that someone who holds a different viewpoint "doesn't understand" or "doesn't get it" then you are really saying nothing more than "I think I am right". Which of course is true, but equally applicable to everyone.

I feel a "strawman" comment coming on again! I will try manfully to resist...

I see you are playing the (fashionable?) "Every opinion is equally valid" card. I am old fashioned. Some opinions are invalid, in the face of reality, rather than simply because they are "other opinions". My opinion is that, as with many similar topics, we should listen to what the experts say: Not what I say or what some arbitrary person (usually with some vested interest) claims.

Time for you to trundle out the usual "experts disagree" thing...

Lootman wrote:If the daily death tool continues to be in single digits, then there can be no argument for not continuing to "vaccinate and ease", which has been the successful strategy for several months now. I am not clear what alternative strategy you are advocating for, whether based on paranoia or not. If you have a strategy, do please outline it so that we can critique it. But the generic spreading of fear doesn't appear to be a viable one that would garner much support.

We are on a trajectory. Informed by data, genuine expertise, experiment and experience. Let's stick to it. Ignore the rest - it's BS. It always was.

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#409630

Postby dealtn » May 5th, 2021, 5:32 pm

XFool wrote:We are on a trajectory. Informed by data, genuine expertise, experiment and experience. Let's stick to it. Ignore the rest - it's BS. It always was.


So were those experts (the ones you agreed with, and that weren't disagreeing with others, and thus we should have been listening to) predicting this reduction to a single daily death? Or were there others (that you didn't agree with, and were disgreeing with yours) that did so, and so we should have been listening to them?

I don't think you can be exclusive and closed minded on who, expert or not, you listen to, and restrict discussion about the others.

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#409635

Postby XFool » May 5th, 2021, 5:58 pm

dealtn wrote:
XFool wrote:We are on a trajectory. Informed by data, genuine expertise, experiment and experience. Let's stick to it. Ignore the rest - it's BS. It always was.

So were those experts (the ones you agreed with, and that weren't disagreeing with others, and thus we should have been listening to) predicting this reduction to a single daily death?

I've no idea! You'll have to ask them. But, why on earth wouldn't they? I mean, we are following a recommended path. It seems to be going as expected (and predicted) so far. What's not to like?

But the same experts have recommended caution, going forward. Warning about possible risks from mutations. Warning about a likely rise in infections next winter. I think we should attend to what they say, not the: "Oh look, 'nobody' is dying now. It's all over. We need to get back to normal now, ASAP. What are we waiting for?" crowd.

If you remember, that's exactly what these self-appointed 'experts' said last time...

dealtn wrote:Or were there others (that you didn't agree with, and were disgreeing with yours) that did so, and so we should have been listening to them?

Nope. We should have ignored them. I said so at the time...

dealtn wrote:I don't think you can be exclusive and closed minded on who, expert or not, you listen to, and restrict discussion about the others.

Reminds me of that old saying: "You should be open minded. But not so open minded your brain falls out."

BTW. How come you seem to assume every expert on the SAGE committee, and connected, has exactly the same opinion about everything?

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#409638

Postby Lootman » May 5th, 2021, 6:33 pm

XFool wrote:I see you are playing the (fashionable?) "Every opinion is equally valid" card. I am old fashioned. Some opinions are invalid, in the face of reality

I agree and the "reality" is that the daily Covid death count is now down to single digits. That demands a different "opinion" than was the case 4 or 12 months ago.

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#409645

Postby dealtn » May 5th, 2021, 7:00 pm

XFool wrote:
dealtn wrote:
XFool wrote:We are on a trajectory. Informed by data, genuine expertise, experiment and experience. Let's stick to it. Ignore the rest - it's BS. It always was.

So were those experts (the ones you agreed with, and that weren't disagreeing with others, and thus we should have been listening to) predicting this reduction to a single daily death?

I've no idea! You'll have to ask them. But, why on earth wouldn't they? I mean, we are following a recommended path. It seems to be going as expected (and predicted) so far. What's not to like?



Exactly. What's not to like? The current outcomes are better in many respects to those (Sage) experts predictions, and the recommended path. The current outcomes are remarkably similar to those of some of the predictions by other "experts", that disagreed and would ave been "ignored" by those like yourself saying we should only respect certain experts.

XFool wrote:
BTW. How come you seem to assume every expert on the SAGE committee, and connected, has exactly the same opinion about everything?


I make no such assumption. Point out where I have. You are the one that appears to be selective on which experts to believe or follow. I am broadminded and am content to listen and digest a wide view of experts across a spectrum of opinions, many of whom I am sure you would consider non-consensus.

I would be amazed if the Sage panel were clone like in their thinking. What would be the point of having such a advisory group?

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#409648

Postby XFool » May 5th, 2021, 7:36 pm

Lootman wrote:
XFool wrote:I see you are playing the (fashionable?) "Every opinion is equally valid" card. I am old fashioned. Some opinions are invalid, in the face of reality

I agree and the "reality" is that the daily Covid death count is now down to single digits. That demands a different "opinion" than was the case 4 or 12 months ago.

Does it? Why? Why doesn't it require exactly the same "opinion" as 4 or 12 months ago - simply adjusted to the current circumstances? Indeed, who is saying this is not the case?

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#409653

Postby Lootman » May 5th, 2021, 7:59 pm

XFool wrote:
Lootman wrote:
XFool wrote:I see you are playing the (fashionable?) "Every opinion is equally valid" card. I am old fashioned. Some opinions are invalid, in the face of reality

I agree and the "reality" is that the daily Covid death count is now down to single digits. That demands a different "opinion" than was the case 4 or 12 months ago.

Does it? Why? Why doesn't it require exactly the same "opinion" as 4 or 12 months ago - simply adjusted to the current circumstances? Indeed, who is saying this is not the case?

Ah, well if what you are saying is that we should adjust our view based on changing data then we are in agreement. Policy should change when the death rate tends to zero.

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#409656

Postby XFool » May 5th, 2021, 8:17 pm

dealtn wrote:
XFool wrote:
dealtn wrote:So were those experts (the ones you agreed with, and that weren't disagreeing with others, and thus we should have been listening to) predicting this reduction to a single daily death?

I've no idea! You'll have to ask them. But, why on earth wouldn't they? I mean, we are following a recommended path. It seems to be going as expected (and predicted) so far. What's not to like?


Exactly. What's not to like? The current outcomes are better in many respects to those (Sage) experts predictions, and the recommended path.

Is it? Where are these apparently poor Sage "predictions"? Did they actually make such exact "predictions"?

dealtn wrote: The current outcomes are remarkably similar to those of some of the predictions by other "experts", that disagreed and would ave been "ignored" by those like yourself saying we should only respect certain experts.

Are they? Where are these better "predictions"? Were their "predictions" always as accurate in the past? Can anyone really make such accurate predictions that involve such small numbers? I seem to remember SAGE usually had a range of "predictions" available to them from different models.

dealtn wrote:
XFool wrote:BTW. How come you seem to assume every expert on the SAGE committee, and connected, has exactly the same opinion about everything?

I make no such assumption. Point out where I have.

Good. It sounded as if you might. Apologies if I misread you.

dealtn wrote:You are the one that appears to be selective on which experts to believe or follow. I am broadminded and am content to listen and digest a wide view of experts across a spectrum of opinions, many of whom I am sure you would consider non-consensus.

Quite!

dealtn wrote:I would be amazed if the Sage panel were clone like in their thinking. What would be the point of having such a advisory group?

Exactly.

My general point is firstly, despite what the pages of The Daily Mail or The Telegraph may have liked to suggest, SAGE was not simply "Professor Lockdown" and a few of his "chums". It had input from a range of different experts and models from several groups in the UK, consisting of differing researchers - likely with input from scientists abroad.

Secondly, whenever something noteworthy happens these days, up pop loads of: 'alternatisers' - "They have got this all wrong"; 'conspiracists' - "It's all been planned"; 'deniers' - "It isn't a real pandemic"*; 'minimizers' - "It's no more than a bad cold" etc.

Plus, of course, the politically motivated: e.g. "I'm a political motivated right wing journalist posing as a disinterested seeker after truth. Which is why I've set up a site called 'Lockdown Sceptics' supplied with articles by increasingly loopy 'retired' (they frequently are!) scientists and other 'non consensus' experts..."

My simple point is: You need to know when to call "BS".


* Unbelievably, in this case, even one noted professor of 'Evidence Based Medicine'!

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#409658

Postby Lootman » May 5th, 2021, 8:22 pm

XFool wrote:My general point is firstly, despite what the pages of The Daily Mail or The Telegraph may have liked to suggest . .

As an aside, is your implicit claim there that The Telegraph is biased and wrong, but The Guardian is unbiased and correct?

And if so, does that give readers information about those newspapers? Or information about your personal prejudices?

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#409659

Postby XFool » May 5th, 2021, 8:28 pm

...Honestly. Things are currently going well in the UK and some people are STILL not satisfied!

What was it Lootman said about some people not being happy despite the (fingers crossed) waning of the virus?... ;)

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#409660

Postby XFool » May 5th, 2021, 8:30 pm

Lootman wrote:
XFool wrote:My general point is firstly, despite what the pages of The Daily Mail or The Telegraph may have liked to suggest . .

As an aside, is your implicit claim there that The Telegraph is biased and wrong, but The Guardian is unbiased and correct?

And if so, does that give readers information about those newspapers? Or information about your personal prejudices?

So what's that called? 'Bait and switch'?

Ahem! It means they know their audience. ;)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9391495/Professor-Lockdown-Neil-Ferguson-apologises-flouting-restrictions.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8759609/Professor-Lockdown-stands-doomsday-forecast-sent-Britain-lockdown.html

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/21/professor-lockdown-makes-return-advise-new-coronavirus-wave/

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#409665

Postby Lootman » May 5th, 2021, 8:58 pm

XFool wrote:
Lootman wrote:
XFool wrote:My general point is firstly, despite what the pages of The Daily Mail or The Telegraph may have liked to suggest . .

As an aside, is your implicit claim there that The Telegraph is biased and wrong, but The Guardian is unbiased and correct?

And if so, does that give readers information about those newspapers? Or information about your personal prejudices?

So what's that called? 'Bait and switch'?

No, if someone claims that paper A is right and paper B is wrong, then they need to back that claim up with more than just "paper A supports my biases".

XFool wrote:What was it Lootman said about some people not being happy despite the waning of the virus?

Glad you are paying attention. I was noting how some people here and elsewhere seem positively sad that the virus is on the retreat, to the point of even denying that. Almost as if their scaremongering about the virus represented an important part of their lives.

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#409667

Postby murraypaul » May 5th, 2021, 9:03 pm

Lootman wrote:Glad you are paying attention. I was noting how some people here and elsewhere seem positively sad that the virus is on the retreat, to the point of even denying that. Almost as if their scaremongering about the virus represented an important part of their lives.


What? Who is sad? I think you are seeing what you want to see.
I don't think anyone is saying the numbers aren't coming down.
I think most sensible people are expecting them to go up again as lockdown is relaxed more and more.
But hopefully not by too much.

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#409670

Postby Lootman » May 5th, 2021, 9:07 pm

murraypaul wrote:I think most sensible people are expecting them to go up again as lockdown is relaxed more and more.

Ah I see you are using the Xfool tactic of claiming that anyone who disagrees with you is not "sensible".

Anyway, what you are ignoring is vaccinations. You know, our entire and successful strategy of escaping that loop of despair.

What is your strategy for dealing with Covid at this point? Xfool ducked that question but I feel sure that you will not.

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#409671

Postby 9873210 » May 5th, 2021, 9:17 pm

Lootman wrote:Policy should change when the death rate tends to zero.


So any policy that works should be changed? Been here, done that. Got January.

You can and should change policy based on evidence, but "it worked" is not evidence that it can or should be changed.

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#409672

Postby Lootman » May 5th, 2021, 9:20 pm

9873210 wrote:
Lootman wrote:Policy should change when the death rate tends to zero.

So any policy that works should be changed? Been here, done that. Got January.

You can and should change policy based on evidence, but "it worked" is not evidence that it can or should be changed.

Ah I see. So zero deaths is no different from 1,000 deaths? Interesting theory but thankfully not one that our government is even remotely listening to. What is your backup plan?

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#409676

Postby murraypaul » May 5th, 2021, 9:28 pm

Lootman wrote:
murraypaul wrote:I think most sensible people are expecting them to go up again as lockdown is relaxed more and more.

Ah I see you are using the Xfool tactic of claiming that anyone who disagrees with you is not "sensible".

Anyway, what you are ignoring is vaccinations. You know, our entire and successful strategy of escaping that loop of despair.


No I'm not, that was the next line, the one you deleted, where the numbers should hopefully not go up by too much this time.

What is your strategy for dealing with Covid at this point? Xfool ducked that question but I feel sure that you will not.


Basically what we are doing.
Open up in stages, expecting some rises and not panicking when/if they happen, but being ready to lock down again if things go badly, for example if new variants appear that the vaccines do not work against.


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