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Where's our Tier 1?

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
UncleEbenezer
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Where's our Tier 1?

#385125

Postby UncleEbenezer » February 9th, 2021, 3:13 pm

For a good week now, Devon has - uniquely among English counties - shown in green on the government map ( https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map ).

Where's our Tier 1 status?

[edit to add] Next door Cornwall has come down fast and might join us in green any time now. And one or two other counties. We're still the only ones to sustain it!

dealtn
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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#385133

Postby dealtn » February 9th, 2021, 3:25 pm

Do we have tiers any more?

There's actually quite a bit of green on that map, you have to zoom in, which I hadn't done before (including where I live - less than 10 miles away is some red though).

PinkDalek
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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#385134

Postby PinkDalek » February 9th, 2021, 3:30 pm

dealtn wrote:Do we have tiers any more?


I think we [England] do, such as see here https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2021/97/introduction/made, but the overarching current Lockdown takes precedence for the time being.

The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (All Tiers and Self-Isolation) (England) (Amendment) Regulations 2021 made 28th January 2021.

Edit: This I think was the 31 December 2020 one The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (All Tiers) (England) (Amendment) (No. 4) Regulations 2020 https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1654/introduction/made.

IANAL ;) .

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#385144

Postby redsturgeon » February 9th, 2021, 4:04 pm

I think the problem with tiers was illustrated by the IoW which was Tier one while across the Solent Portsmouth was tier 4. Soon the IoW had higher numbers than Portsmouth! A 15 minute ferry ride was not enough to keep the virus at bay, let alone a county boundary sign.

John

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#385150

Postby Julian » February 9th, 2021, 4:13 pm

Who knows if it’s a wholesale longer term shift in strategy but Boris Johnson gave a pretty clear steer in one of his Downing Street briefings about a week or two ago that they now realised that infection moves around the country further and faster that previously thought and hence different regional tier restrictions would not be the strategy coming out of this national lockdown but rather that all of England will move in lockstep.

Maybe if we get numbers very low again over the summer regional restrictions might come back into play to try and squash outbreaks but as far as spring and early summer are concerned, assuming that is the period over which we gradually come out of this national lockdown, it looks as if we (Englanders) are all in for the same ride.

- Julian

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#385152

Postby dealtn » February 9th, 2021, 4:25 pm

redsturgeon wrote:I think the problem with tiers was illustrated by the IoW which was Tier one while across the Solent Portsmouth was tier 4. Soon the IoW had higher numbers than Portsmouth! A 15 minute ferry ride was not enough to keep the virus at bay, let alone a county boundary sign.

John


Does that not show that tier 4 restrictions worked, relatively? I don't know the specifics of the example you have chosen, but assume you do.

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#385164

Postby redsturgeon » February 9th, 2021, 5:19 pm

dealtn wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:I think the problem with tiers was illustrated by the IoW which was Tier one while across the Solent Portsmouth was tier 4. Soon the IoW had higher numbers than Portsmouth! A 15 minute ferry ride was not enough to keep the virus at bay, let alone a county boundary sign.

John


Does that not show that tier 4 restrictions worked, relatively? I don't know the specifics of the example you have chosen, but assume you do.


Tier 4 works only for the area in tier 4, not so good for adjacent lesser tiers and not so good once the Kent variant arrived.

John

UncleEbenezer
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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#385175

Postby UncleEbenezer » February 9th, 2021, 6:02 pm

dealtn wrote:Do we have tiers any more?

There's actually quite a bit of green on that map, you have to zoom in, which I hadn't done before (including where I live - less than 10 miles away is some red though).


We don't have tiers operating. But if I'd posted to the grumps board where it belongs, the moderators would probably have moved it here anyway.

Yes, there's more green as you zoom in. But at a county level it's just us (and it seems Cornwall joined us in today's update). Other green areas on the map are not England.

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#385191

Postby bungeejumper » February 9th, 2021, 6:45 pm

Plenty of lime green (0-9) in our area of north-west Wilts - indeed, a couple of weeks ago we were showing as white (suppressed, or rather, fewer than three cases). But Wiltshire is a pretty big county with hundreds of square miles of Salisbury Plain where practically nobody lives except for a lot of army types. It's probably no particular surprise that the army bases have some of the heavier infection rates. :D

But I'm still trying to get my head around the map's apparently unnecessary statement that a white area has been labelled "suppressed" ("no data"), so as to protect the identities of the fewer than three cases within its boundary. Dammit, it's not as though you can home in to the particular postcodes where the poor lepers live? All you know is that a white area of maybe ten square miles has no more than two cases. How is the map protecting anybody's privacy from anything? (Although, I'll grant you, the week-on-week trend data will be a bit lumpy if the sample is so small.)

I don't suppose I'm the first to ponder this one. A genuine question, then, why couldn't they just have given the white areas a colour just like everywhere else?

BJ

UncleEbenezer
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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#385201

Postby UncleEbenezer » February 9th, 2021, 7:13 pm

bungeejumper wrote:Plenty of lime green (0-9) in our area of north-west Wilts
BJ

That's mid-green: 10-49 (clock on any of the areas, it'll give you a number. For example, Box is 37.8. Locally here we're light green too, though that's not longstanding like Devon's overall green.

Agree with you about the white nonsense.

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#385205

Postby Adamski » February 9th, 2021, 7:22 pm

Lucky people in Devon, Cornwall and Wilts. Lovely parts of the country as well.

Yes, looks like not going back to tiers. Think the hope is once vaccine kicks in, we get herd immunity, and they can unwind the lockdown for good. Be a happy day when that happens. UK stock market might benefit as well, if we're out quicker than the EU.

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#386425

Postby UncleEbenezer » February 13th, 2021, 3:02 pm

Ok, we've now been joined in green at county level not just by Cornwall, but in the last couple of days by Gloucestershire and Herefordshire.

Looking at what these counties have in common, I wonder if real cider is in fact the antidote?

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#386450

Postby Julian » February 13th, 2021, 4:25 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:Ok, we've now been joined in green at county level not just by Cornwall, but in the last couple of days by Gloucestershire and Herefordshire.

Looking at what these counties have in common, I wonder if real cider is in fact the antidote?

Even if it's not I'm willing to give it a try.

- Julian

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#386689

Postby UncleEbenezer » February 14th, 2021, 4:39 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:Ok, we've now been joined in green at county level not just by Cornwall, but in the last couple of days by Gloucestershire and Herefordshire.

Looking at what these counties have in common, I wonder if real cider is in fact the antidote?


And today a fifth whole English county. Does Suffolk have real cider too?

UncleEbenezer
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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#386690

Postby UncleEbenezer » February 14th, 2021, 4:51 pm

bungeejumper wrote:But I'm still trying to get my head around the map's apparently unnecessary statement that a white area has been labelled "suppressed" ("no data"),

We've been white a few days.

Now zooming in to MSOA level, the whole of West Devon (13 cases, rolling rate 23.3) is white, with the exception of a dark green on the southern fringe (Yelverton to the Bere Peninsula) with five cases. We can infer 8 cases distributed over the six white areas - being West Devon's two main towns and surrounding rural areas.

And we have a big swathe coast-to-coast of light green :D

tjh290633
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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#386694

Postby tjh290633 » February 14th, 2021, 5:01 pm

bungeejumper wrote:But I'm still trying to get my head around the map's apparently unnecessary statement that a white area has been labelled "suppressed" ("no data"), so as to protect the identities of the fewer than three cases within its boundary.

It says less than 3, so what's wrong with that? White is less than 3, full stop.

TJH

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#386695

Postby bungeejumper » February 14th, 2021, 5:06 pm

tjh290633 wrote:It says less than 3, so what's wrong with that? White is less than 3, full stop.

Take another look at the key. It's less than 3, honestly.

Which, I'll grant you, is at odds with the fact that a pale green is 0 to 9. :lol: Not a very well thought-out map at all, in fact.

BJ

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#386702

Postby UncleEbenezer » February 14th, 2021, 5:44 pm

bungeejumper wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:It says less than 3, so what's wrong with that? White is less than 3, full stop.

Take another look at the key. It's less than 3, honestly.

Which, I'll grant you, is at odds with the fact that a pale green is 0 to 9. :lol: Not a very well thought-out map at all, in fact.

BJ

Not the same figures at all. The 3 (less than) is individual cases; the 0-9 (as shown for Shetland) is a rate. Not percent, but permillicent if you like.

So a white could be green, blue, or even purple where the sample is small.

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#386742

Postby rabbit » February 14th, 2021, 9:52 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:
UncleEbenezer wrote:Ok, we've now been joined in green at county level not just by Cornwall, but in the last couple of days by Gloucestershire and Herefordshire.

Looking at what these counties have in common, I wonder if real cider is in fact the antidote?


And today a fifth whole English county. Does Suffolk have real cider too?


Indeed it does. I seem to recall that Aspall cider is pretty good.

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Re: Where's our Tier 1?

#387776

Postby UncleEbenezer » February 18th, 2021, 4:51 pm

As big swathes of the country (including now the whole Four Counties of Southwest England) join us in green, we've moved as a county to light green, with a few areas of Wales and Scotland. And that despite a big outbreak in a small area of central Exeter disproportionately pushing the county's numbers up.

Where's our Tier 1 status?
Last edited by UncleEbenezer on February 18th, 2021, 4:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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