Where's our Tier 1?

[dealtn]

Lots of white near me.

I can't see any yellow though, does it exist?

[UncleEbenezer]

Lots of white near me.

I can't see any yellow though, does it exist?

Exists for Shetland.

It's not shown at the MSOA level, where we and all our immediate neighbouring areas are indeed in white.

[Lootman]

As big swathes of the country (including now the whole Four Counties of Southwest England) join us in green, we've moved as a county to light green, with a few areas of Wales and Scotland. And that despite a big outbreak in a small area of central Exeter disproportionately pushing the county's numbers up.

Where's our Tier 1 status?

So, Cornwall, Devon, Somerset and Dorset?

Are you including Bristol in with that?

[modellingman]

As an aside, here in the Canary Islands, the government of the autonomous community (Spain is divided into 17 of these) put in place a traffic light system of tiers (green, yellow, red) before Christmas. Each of the 7 islands was placed into a tier according to 7 and 14 day rates of infection and levels of hospital capacity taken up by Covid-19 cases. Different social restrictions such as restaurant and bar opening hours and curfew hours were applied to each colour.

Prior to Christmas Tenerife was the worst affected island and the only one on red. After Christmas, cases in Lanzarote gave a perfect illustration of exponential growth and peaked at several times the previous peak in Tenerife. This necessitated even more social restrictions and a new traffic light colour. The colour chosen? Brown. We are still paddling our way out of the creek.

[Lootman]

As an aside, here in the Canary Islands, the government of the autonomous community (Spain is divided into 17 of these) put in place a traffic light system of tiers (green, yellow, red) before Christmas. Each of the 7 islands was placed into a tier according to 7 and 14 day rates of infection and levels of hospital capacity taken up by Covid-19 cases. Different social restrictions such as restaurant and bar opening hours and curfew hours were applied to each colour.

Prior to Christmas Tenerife was the worst affected island and the only one on red. After Christmas, cases in Lanzarote gave a perfect illustration of exponential growth and peaked at several times the previous peak in Tenerife. This necessitated even more social restrictions and a new traffic light colour. The colour chosen? Brown. We are still paddling our way out of the creek.

The US has a similar system of colour codes:

Yellow (minimal)
Orange (moderate)
Red (substantial)
Purple (severe)

These are not subjective assessments. They are data-driven based on metrics like infections per million people and ICU utilisation. Counties then migrate between the tiers based on their numbers, not government edict.

This seems so much more sensible than the extremes that we see in some places e.g. no restrictions at all, on the one hand. And overly strict restrictions for an entire country regardless of data, on the other.

Perhaps that is easier to do in a very large country (the US) or a country divided into islands (Canaries) where it is easier to control inter-island traffic. Whereas in the UK if we have different regional tiers then people move about accordingly. In Uncle's example, Bristolians might happily travel the one hour to Exeter, the 2 hours to Plymouth, or three hours to Truro, if those places had much laxer restrictions.

[UncleEbenezer]

As of today, we (West Devon) show bright yellow on the map[1]. The first mainland area to do so. And of course all our seven local areas are white on the MSOA map.

Where's our Tier 1?

[1] Not that we'll necessarily keep it: at this level, a single new case matters.

[UncleEbenezer]

As of today, we (West Devon) show bright yellow on the map[1]. The first mainland area to do so. And of course all our seven local areas are white on the MSOA map.

Where's our Tier 1?

[1] Not that we'll necessarily keep it: at this level, a single new case matters.

Three weeks on and our neighbouring regions - together an area bigger than many whole counties and stretching coast to coast - are all now yellow.

Where's our Tier 1?

[Lootman]

As of today, we (West Devon) show bright yellow on the map[1]. The first mainland area to do so. And of course all our seven local areas are white on the MSOA map.

Where's our Tier 1?

[1] Not that we'll necessarily keep it: at this level, a single new case matters.

Three weeks on and our neighbouring regions - together an area bigger than many whole counties and stretching coast to coast - are all now yellow. Where's our Tier 1?

May 17th, honey. Same as the rest of us. You don't get a pass for being yokels and bumpkins.

[UncleEbenezer]

So we've had lots of areas of small population show yellow on the map for a while. Small islands. Big but sparsely-populated areas of Scotland and Wales. Small areas of English counties, headed by Devon. No single area has held it consistently, as these are at numbers where a single case can tip the balance.

Today for the first time, areas of substantial population turn yellow at the county level. Two at once: the biggest, Devon, is joined on the same day by middling-size Gloucestershire. With several further potential candidates to join us soon.

So where's our Tier 1?

[zico]

Up here in the North, we've had the following.

1. Lockdown when London & South-East were mainly affected.
2. Lockdown lifted nationally when London was OK, but North cases still too high, leading inevitably to -
3. Stricter tiers in the North because of the higher rates, then new variant discovered in Kent leading (not obviously inevitably) to -
4. Policy of "Hey chill out, it's nearly Xmas" to give the Kent variant a proper chance to spread quickly across the whole country.

5. And now, as night follows day, cases are down a lot in the South (but less so in the North), so it's time to relax lockdown all over the country, to be followed by .......ooh, at a wild guess, new lockdowns applying only to the North?

[melonfool]

2. Lockdown lifted nationally when London was OK, but North cases still too high, leading inevitably to -

Except Leicester who have had full lockdown since March 23rd last year. Not really 'North', though admittedly not London either.

Mel

[UncleEbenezer]

Up here in the North, we've had the following.

1. Lockdown when London & South-East were mainly affected.
2. Lockdown lifted nationally when London was OK, but North cases still too high, leading inevitably to -
3. Stricter tiers in the North because of the higher rates, then new variant discovered in Kent leading (not obviously inevitably) to -
4. Policy of "Hey chill out, it's nearly Xmas" to give the Kent variant a proper chance to spread quickly across the whole country.

5. And now, as night follows day, cases are down a lot in the South (but less so in the North), so it's time to relax lockdown all over the country, to be followed by .......ooh, at a wild guess, new lockdowns applying only to the North?

Yeah, you in the North got super-spreaders. Barnard Castle, anyone?

Sometimes - maybe once a century - it can be no bad thing to be overlooked when politicians give the North a "leveling up" agenda.

[UncleEbenezer]

2. Lockdown lifted nationally when London was OK, but North cases still too high, leading inevitably to -

Except Leicester who have had full lockdown since March 23rd last year. Not really 'North', though admittedly not London either.

Mel

Are you cursed for what you did to Richard of York?

[Lootman]

Lockdown lifted nationally when London was OK, but North cases still too high, leading inevitably to -

Except Leicester who have had full lockdown since March 23rd last year. Not really 'North', though admittedly not London either.

Leicester is a funny place. Go 30 miles north to Nottingham and Derby and the northern accent immediately hits you. But with Leicester it is not so much an accent as a really sloppy diction, all dropped "h"s, and the use of words like "mardy", "frit" and "nesh".

But it is still the sweatshop capital of the country and we should surely be proud of that.

[melonfool]

2. Lockdown lifted nationally when London was OK, but North cases still too high, leading inevitably to -

Except Leicester who have had full lockdown since March 23rd last year. Not really 'North', though admittedly not London either.

Mel

Are you cursed for what you did to Richard of York?

No idea, I don't live in Leicester.

Mel

[zico]

2. Lockdown lifted nationally when London was OK, but North cases still too high, leading inevitably to -

Except Leicester who have had full lockdown since March 23rd last year. Not really 'North', though admittedly not London either.

Mel

Yes, Leicester has suffered worse than anywhere for lockdowns. There are many definitions of "North", but I think the dividing line between the Severn and the Wash is a fair division of the country - at least into "South and important" and "Not South, not important", which is how government policy generally seems to work.

Alternative definitions of the Severn-Wash line :-

Places we'd consider for our first home / Places we wouldn't
Money / Industry
Well-spoken / Barely comprehensible dialects
Civilised aga-users / Uncouth barbarians
Smug / Bitter
Wealth creators / Scroungers
British reserve / Talk to complete strangers
Green belt / Wasteland
Nowhere suitable for fracking / Everywhere suitable for fracking

Think that covers it!

[AleisterCrowley]

Why does the Midlands always get left out? We are not South. We are not North.
When travelling by train the Midlands starts at Banbury, and ends at Stoke.

[zico]

Why does the Midlands always get left out? We are not South. We are not North.
When travelling by train the Midlands starts at Banbury, and ends at Stoke.

"Midlands" is way too messy a concept. Especially Cheshire, which has no business being anywhere near La-La Land, Moss Side and Yorkshire, so should be towed to fit in somewhere adjoining the Chilterns. The Midlands also has the most ignored second city of any country in the world.
As far as the "Midlands" go, "Not South" is the important bit.

[melonfool]

Why does the Midlands always get left out? We are not South. We are not North.
When travelling by train the Midlands starts at Banbury, and ends at Stoke.

Well, it's neither here nor there is it?

Mel

[AleisterCrowley]

It is 'here' when I'm there. Which I'm not, at the moment.