The Lemon Fool

... and today, as more small-to-middling counties turn yellow (and some big-population counties not far away), Plymouth takes the baton from Exeter as the biggest city in yellow. Yet again, Devon leads

Where's our Tier 1?

Just maintaining the record, Devon - until today by far the longest-standing county in under-ten-cases-per-100000 yellow - falls from grace, leaving much smaller relative newcomer East Sussex as the biggest remaining population in yellow! And we know Sussex is full of London day-trippers both in normal times and in so-called lockdown.

And that with both the rapid seasonal improvement that last year saw it down to much lower levels last year before they legislated for germ-incubators and super-spreaders on everyone's faces, and with the coming of the vaccines.

Dumb rules that deprive us of life aren't helping!

So our covid incidence has approximately doubled since mid-April, with every individual area of Devon except Torbay out of the healthy lemon-yellow. Other English counties that had joined us at low levels are also up: our neighbours Cornwall and Dorset, west-of-England Gloucestershire, Herefordshire, Shropshire, and outlier East Sussex, all lost our yellow status on the map. Newcomer Cumbria is today the most significant English population in yellow ahead of fellow-newcomer West Cheshire (I'm reluctant to count part-counties here, but it appears to be a significant area).

Meanwhile most of Wales, including now some of their significant population centres and poorer regions in the Valleys, is knocking the spots off us. What are they doing right?

UncleEbenezer wrote:So our covid incidence has approximately doubled since mid-April, with every individual area of Devon except Torbay out of the healthy lemon-yellow. Other English counties that had joined us at low levels are also up: our neighbours Cornwall and Dorset, west-of-England Gloucestershire, Herefordshire, Shropshire, and outlier East Sussex, all lost our yellow status on the map. Newcomer Cumbria is today the most significant English population in yellow ahead of fellow-newcomer West Cheshire (I'm reluctant to count part-counties here, but it appears to be a significant area).

Meanwhile most of Wales, including now some of their significant population centres and poorer regions in the Valleys, is knocking the spots off us. What are they doing right?

The UK has now exited the pandemic, and has entered the endemic stage of infection. Cases will fluctuate in different parts of the country, but are now at very low levels everywhere.
The only way out of this epidemic for Western society was mass vaccination, and the programme is moving ahead rapidly.

Nimrod103 wrote:The UK has now exited the pandemic,

Declare Victory and Move On?

Like Dubya in 2003 standing in front of a "Mission Accomplished" banner on his aircraft carrier and declaring victory in Iraq!

UncleEbenezer wrote:

Nimrod103 wrote:The UK has now exited the pandemic,

Declare Victory and Move On?

Like Dubya in 2003 standing in front of a "Mission Accomplished" banner on his aircraft carrier and declaring victory in Iraq!

To be fair on Bush he was right - they had defeated the Iraqi regime, but were moving into a different style of conflict. Bit like us now we've got effective vaccines and improved treatment and moved from suppression to mitigation. Not a bad analogy actually!

UncleEbenezer wrote:So our covid incidence has approximately doubled since mid-April, with every individual area of Devon except Torbay out of the healthy lemon-yellow. Other English counties that had joined us at low levels are also up: our neighbours Cornwall and Dorset, west-of-England Gloucestershire, Herefordshire, Shropshire, and outlier East Sussex, all lost our yellow status on the map. Newcomer Cumbria is today the most significant English population in yellow ahead of fellow-newcomer West Cheshire (I'm reluctant to count part-counties here, but it appears to be a significant area).

Meanwhile most of Wales, including now some of their significant population centres and poorer regions in the Valleys, is knocking the spots off us. What are they doing right?

Having fewer out-of-region visitors?

I haven't been keeping up to date but when Wales got to the stage in its lockdown release, however many weeks ago that was now, when it opened up B&Bs to local residents I saw a news conference where the First Minister explicitly asked Welsh establishments not to take bookings from English visitors. I have no idea if that was primarily to prevent importing infections or if it was to show British solidarity by not being complicit in the English breaking their more restrictive lockdown rules still in place at that time but presumably it achieved both objectives at least to some degree. Contrast that with some English friends of mine who recently took advantage of AirBnBs being an option in the UK now with wider travel allowed to do a staycation in Scarborough which was apparently very busy and when their AirBnB was cancelled at the last minute at their second stop (Cambridge) due to a leak Cambridge was so busy that there was no alternative accommodation available. Those are different parts of the country to the ones you're talking about of course but might holiday visitors to your region(s) be bringing in new infections? That's probably not what the government had in mind when talking about its regional "levelling up" agenda!

Last year I saw some news interviews with government ministers admitting that one thing they had underestimated last year during the phase when England was implementing regional tiered lockdowns was just how quickly and easily low infection areas could become high infection areas due to regional leakage even under lockdown. Maybe that "no one is safe until everyone is safe" mantra, usually cited at the global level, needs to be borne in mind at the national level too.

- Julian

Nimrod103 wrote:The UK has now exited the pandemic, and has entered the endemic stage of infection. Cases will fluctuate in different parts of the country, but are now at very low levels everywhere.
The only way out of this epidemic for Western society was mass vaccination, and the programme is moving ahead rapidly.

The pandemic is on going. You cannot exit a pandemic in one country.

UK deaths and cases are currently higher than August 2020. Vaccination rates are higher, which is a cause for hope, but optimism is too high, which is a cause for despair. Hopefully the next wave will be less lethal and more instructive than the first two.

9873210 wrote:

Nimrod103 wrote:The UK has now exited the pandemic, and has entered the endemic stage of infection. Cases will fluctuate in different parts of the country, but are now at very low levels everywhere.
The only way out of this epidemic for Western society was mass vaccination, and the programme is moving ahead rapidly.

The pandemic is on going. You cannot exit a pandemic in one country.

UK deaths and cases are currently higher than August 2020. Vaccination rates are higher, which is a cause for hope, but optimism is too high, which is a cause for despair. Hopefully the next wave will be less lethal and more instructive than the first two.

Google definitions:
endemic - (of a disease or condition) regularly found among particular people or in a certain area.
pandemic - (of a disease) prevalent over a whole country or the world.

As far as the UK is concerned, endemic would seem a better description of the present position.

9873210 wrote:

Nimrod103 wrote:The UK has now exited the pandemic, and has entered the endemic stage of infection. Cases will fluctuate in different parts of the country, but are now at very low levels everywhere.
The only way out of this epidemic for Western society was mass vaccination, and the programme is moving ahead rapidly.

The pandemic is on going. You cannot exit a pandemic in one country.

UK deaths and cases are currently higher than August 2020.

Well, the official Covid death count yesterday was 1 (one)!

Probably about the same as the number who died from being gored by a wild animal.

Lootman wrote:

9873210 wrote:

Nimrod103 wrote:The UK has now exited the pandemic, and has entered the endemic stage of infection. Cases will fluctuate in different parts of the country, but are now at very low levels everywhere.
The only way out of this epidemic for Western society was mass vaccination, and the programme is moving ahead rapidly.

The pandemic is on going. You cannot exit a pandemic in one country.

UK deaths and cases are currently higher than August 2020.

Well, the official Covid death count yesterday was 1 (one)!

Probably about the same as the number who died from being gored by a wild animal.

I don't know where you are getting your data from but https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths does not support your statement. You'd have to wait another four days before yesterday's death become available.

9873210 wrote:

Lootman wrote:

9873210 wrote:The pandemic is on going. You cannot exit a pandemic in one country.

UK deaths and cases are currently higher than August 2020.

Well, the official Covid death count yesterday was 1 (one)!

Probably about the same as the number who died from being gored by a wild animal.

I don't know where you are getting your data from but https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths does not support your statement. You'd have to wait another four days before yesterday's death become available.

"On Tuesday, the UK reported four Covid deaths within 28 days of a positive test. On Monday it was only one."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... r-optimism

Lootman wrote:

9873210 wrote:

Nimrod103 wrote:The UK has now exited the pandemic, and has entered the endemic stage of infection. Cases will fluctuate in different parts of the country, but are now at very low levels everywhere.
The only way out of this epidemic for Western society was mass vaccination, and the programme is moving ahead rapidly.

The pandemic is on going. You cannot exit a pandemic in one country.

UK deaths and cases are currently higher than August 2020.

Well, the official Covid death count yesterday was 1 (one)!

Probably about the same as the number who died from being gored by a wild animal.

Yeah. And, as we all know by now, "being gored by a wild animal" is a highly infectious condition. Especially when you take into account all the various possible mutations of "being gored by a wild animal".


"How long, Oh Lord? How long?"

XFool wrote:

Lootman wrote:

9873210 wrote:The pandemic is on going. You cannot exit a pandemic in one country.

UK deaths and cases are currently higher than August 2020.

Well, the official Covid death count yesterday was 1 (one)!

Probably about the same as the number who died from being gored by a wild animal.

Yeah. And, as we all know by now, "being gored by a wild animal" is a highly infectious condition. Especially when you take into account all the various possible mutations of "being gored by a wild animal".


"How long, Oh Lord? How long?"

So the fact an infectious disease with the potential for exponential growth only resulted in a single death doesn't register as being newsworthy to you? I must have missed it, but a "goring by wild animal death" would rank higher as a newsworthy event I admit.

dealtn wrote:

XFool wrote:

Lootman wrote:Well, the official Covid death count yesterday was 1 (one)!

Probably about the same as the number who died from being gored by a wild animal.

Yeah. And, as we all know by now, "being gored by a wild animal" is a highly infectious condition. Especially when you take into account all the various possible mutations of "being gored by a wild animal".


"How long, Oh Lord? How long?"

So the fact an infectious disease with the potential for exponential growth only resulted in a single death doesn't register as being newsworthy to you?

Who said it wasn't "newsworthy"? (That's not though, the point.)

dealtn wrote:I must have missed it, but a "goring by wild animal death" would rank higher as a newsworthy event I admit.

Probably! Especially so if we had a global epidemic of people being gored to death by wild animals on our hands. Have we?

XFool wrote:

dealtn wrote:

XFool wrote:Yeah. And, as we all know by now, "being gored by a wild animal" is a highly infectious condition. Especially when you take into account all the various possible mutations of "being gored by a wild animal".


"How long, Oh Lord? How long?"

So the fact an infectious disease with the potential for exponential growth only resulted in a single death doesn't register as being newsworthy to you?

Who said it wasn't "newsworthy"? (That's not though, the point.)

dealtn wrote:I must have missed it, but a "goring by wild animal death" would rank higher as a newsworthy event I admit.

Probably! Especially so if we had a global epidemic of people being gored to death by wild animals on our hands. Have we?

No.

I don't understand your continuing reference to "global epidemic". Do you think there are really many people that are unaware of it with respect to Covid?

dealtn wrote:

XFool wrote:

dealtn wrote:So the fact an infectious disease with the potential for exponential growth only resulted in a single death doesn't register as being newsworthy to you?

Who said it wasn't "newsworthy"? (That's not though, the point.)

dealtn wrote:I must have missed it, but a "goring by wild animal death" would rank higher as a newsworthy event I admit.

Probably! Especially so if we had a global epidemic of people being gored to death by wild animals on our hands. Have we?

No.

I don't understand your continuing reference to "global epidemic". Do you think there are really many people that are unaware of it with respect to Covid?

I'm not sure.

I'm pretty sure most people are familiar with the terminology - the words. But, from reading many comments about the "pandemic", I continue to be considerably less sure about the proportion of people who fully comprehend the meaning and implications of the fact of the "pandemic".

Am I wrong? I'm not sure...

XFool wrote:

dealtn wrote:

XFool wrote:Who said it wasn't "newsworthy"? (That's not though, the point.)


Probably! Especially so if we had a global epidemic of people being gored to death by wild animals on our hands. Have we?

No.

I don't understand your continuing reference to "global epidemic". Do you think there are really many people that are unaware of it with respect to Covid?

I'm not sure.

I'm pretty sure most people are familiar with the terminology - the words. But, from reading many comments about the "pandemic", I continue to be considerably less sure about the proportion of people who fully comprehend the meaning and implications of the fact of the "pandemic".

Am I wrong? I'm not sure...

Well "fully" is a pretty high hurdle! I am sure most understand both the meaning and implications to a large degree though.

dealtn wrote:

XFool wrote:

dealtn wrote:No. I don't understand your continuing reference to "global epidemic". Do you think there are really many people that are unaware of it with respect to Covid?

I'm not sure.

I'm pretty sure most people are familiar with the terminology - the words. But, from reading many comments about the "pandemic", I continue to be considerably less sure about the proportion of people who fully comprehend the meaning and implications of the fact of the "pandemic".

Am I wrong? I'm not sure...

Well "fully" is a pretty high hurdle! I am sure most understand both the meaning and implications to a large degree though.

No doubt they will counter that if you aren't living in fear about the virus then you "don't understand it".

I never thought that there would be people who miss the virus when it went away. I guess in some sense they needed it. It made them feel more alive?

dealtn wrote:

XFool wrote:

dealtn wrote:No.

I don't understand your continuing reference to "global epidemic". Do you think there are really many people that are unaware of it with respect to Covid?

I'm not sure.

I'm pretty sure most people are familiar with the terminology - the words. But, from reading many comments about the "pandemic", I continue to be considerably less sure about the proportion of people who fully comprehend the meaning and implications of the fact of the "pandemic".

Am I wrong? I'm not sure...

Well "fully" is a pretty high hurdle! I am sure most understand both the meaning and implications to a large degree though.

Then why are there so many (I don't mean just on TLF) who, by their comments, seem to think they know more than the relevant experts do?

Though, thinking about it - it was ever thus...