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The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
jackdaww
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Re: The vaccine

#388244

Postby jackdaww » February 20th, 2021, 4:52 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:It may be and hopefully will be but don't forget that they have administered doses with a 3 week interval which we only did briefly till it was changed to 12 weeks. The real test will be when lockdown ceases.



I think it shows that vaccination works, but that lockdown has no effect.

TJH


===================================

i am no great fan of governments , but why they would shoot themselves in the foot and cause havoc with the economy and peoples lives

by employing lockdowns is incomprehensible to me .

:roll:

Lanark
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Re: The vaccine

#388258

Postby Lanark » February 20th, 2021, 6:30 pm

jackdaww wrote:
i am no great fan of governments , but why they would shoot themselves in the foot and cause havoc with the economy and peoples lives

by employing lockdowns is incomprehensible to me .

:roll:

What part of lockdown are you finding incomprehensible?

They are in use in just about every country in the world and have proven beyond any doubt to slow down the spread of what would otherwise be an exponential epidemic.

onthemove
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Re: The vaccine

#388264

Postby onthemove » February 20th, 2021, 7:08 pm

Lanark wrote:
jackdaww wrote:
i am no great fan of governments , but why they would shoot themselves in the foot and cause havoc with the economy and peoples lives

by employing lockdowns is incomprehensible to me .

:roll:

What part of lockdown are you finding incomprehensible?

They are in use in just about every country in the world and have proven beyond any doubt to slow down the spread of what would otherwise be an exponential epidemic.


That is simply not true.

Sweden has had fewer deaths per capita than the UK, yet Swedes are not under anything like such a lockdown as in the UK.

I firmly believe even in the UK, it's not the lockdown per se that's helping things, but people's behaviour.

Most people don't even know what the rules are... my mum on a call in november (during that lockdown) proudly declared how she was sticking to the rules, then proceeded to tell me about the nice days out drive and walk she'd had in the countryside with a friend. I tried to diplomatically let her know that strictly speaking that wasn't permitted at that time (but I knew that both her and her friend we otherwise very careful, and being out in the wide open with no others, was hardly putting them at risk - illegal, yes, a danger from covid, no... but that's exactly what I mean... my mum and her friend had made their own, rational assessment and behaved according to that, not the lockdown law.).

It's a well established fact that people when acting as a group tend to find the 'right' answer on average. As sweden shows, as long as people are given the facts, dispassionately, they will collectively make the right choices. Sure, there'll be some who don't give a stuff, but equally there'll be others that go over the top.

We can already see from people's behaviour, that people are responding to the facts. Youngsters are mixing with other youngsters, but older people are self isolating even when they aren't specifically told to shield.

If the government would just trust the public, we wouldn't actually need a legally enforced lockdown. All it shows is that the government doesn't have any trust or respect for the public to make the right decisions.

I think the government are selling the public short.

(And before anyone comes up with the argument that sweden has a lower population density, I say nonsense... we aren't so densely packed that we are forced from population density within 2m of each other... anything over 2m is entirely down to social interactions, not population density. The virus doesn't care whether you travelled 5meters or 50miles to visit someone... and no, packed trains aren't because of population density... that's simply down to the level of 'people per train' for which the authorities decide to provide)

(I would just add, my employer (a global multination) told all of us (globally) who could work from home that we were obligated to do so, even before the UK government made it official; only those strictly needed in the work place have been permitted onto site since before the government locked down, another example of how people and companies can, and do, do the right thing without being told they have to)

XFool
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Re: The vaccine

#388272

Postby XFool » February 20th, 2021, 7:52 pm

onthemove wrote:It's a well established fact that people when acting as a group tend to find the 'right' answer on average.

Ooh! Is it? Well, on average, I'd dispute that. ;)

It's certainly a well established 'well known fact'. Like many other 'well known facts', such as: "We only ever use 10% of our brains".

onthemove wrote:Sweden has had fewer deaths per capita than the UK, yet Swedes are not under anything like such a lockdown as in the UK.

But, wrt Sweden, perhaps the question you should be answering is why did Sweden do so badly compared to its nearest neighbours?
Last edited by XFool on February 20th, 2021, 7:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Lanark
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Re: The vaccine

#388273

Postby Lanark » February 20th, 2021, 7:55 pm


Lootman
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Re: The vaccine

#388275

Postby Lootman » February 20th, 2021, 8:03 pm

Lanark wrote:
jackdaww wrote:i am no great fan of governments , but why they would shoot themselves in the foot and cause havoc with the economy and peoples lives

by employing lockdowns is incomprehensible to me .

What part of lockdown are you finding incomprehensible?

They are in use in just about every country in the world and have proven beyond any doubt to slow down the spread of what would otherwise be an exponential epidemic.

Yes, but every country has adopted a different form of lockdown, which is not indicative of a consensus about what works, other than in principle.

I suspect that some restrictions are more effective than others. The 80/20 rule may well apply, as it does with so many things. So it is almost universal that locations where large numbers of people congregate in an indoor space and breathe heavily, are the worst for spreading the virus. So for example the UK never allowed nightclubs, comedy clubs, theatres, indoor sports stadiums and choral practices to reopen last summer. That makes sense.

On the other hand. telling people they cannot meet outdoors with one other person outside their household even if they socially distance and wear masks? Nonsense and useless.

So what we have are some countries who did too much lockdown, virtually turning the country into a prison. And then we had other countries who ignored the virus and carried on as if nothing was going on.

A happy medium, folks?

XFool
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Re: The vaccine

#388277

Postby XFool » February 20th, 2021, 8:14 pm

Lootman wrote:
Lanark wrote:What part of lockdown are you finding incomprehensible?

They are in use in just about every country in the world and have proven beyond any doubt to slow down the spread of what would otherwise be an exponential epidemic.

Yes, but every country has adopted a different form of lockdown, which is not indicative of a consensus about what works, other than in principle.

I suspect that some restrictions are more effective than others.

Yes, and different restrictions might be more effective, or needed, in different countries.

Lootman wrote:On the other hand. telling people they cannot meet outdoors with one other person outside their household even if they socially distance and wear masks? Nonsense and useless.

Were we ever actually told that? I know I have seen it said more than once, but I met one person outdoors during the first lockdown and also during this lockdown. AFAIK I have been keeping to the rules as closely as possible.

onthemove
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Re: The vaccine

#388279

Postby onthemove » February 20th, 2021, 8:21 pm

XFool wrote:Were we ever actually told that? I know I have seen it said more than once, but I met one person outdoors during the first lockdown and also during this lockdown. AFAIK I have been keeping to the rules as closely as possible.


https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lo ... her-people
"Meeting other people: It is against the law to meet socially with family or friends unless they are part of your household or support bubble. You cannot leave home for recreational or leisure purposes (such as for a picnic or a social meeting)."

Lootman
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Re: The vaccine

#388281

Postby Lootman » February 20th, 2021, 8:25 pm

XFool wrote:
Lootman wrote:
Lanark wrote:What part of lockdown are you finding incomprehensible?

They are in use in just about every country in the world and have proven beyond any doubt to slow down the spread of what would otherwise be an exponential epidemic.

Yes, but every country has adopted a different form of lockdown, which is not indicative of a consensus about what works, other than in principle.

I suspect that some restrictions are more effective than others.

Yes, and different restrictions might be more effective, or needed, in different countries.

Ignoring the possibility of new variants, which may have different characteristics and therefore require different restrictions, any variance would mostly be a function of how soon those restrictions were implemented relative to the arrival of the virus there. So for example New Zealand claims justification for sealing its borders because, at that point, the virus had not yet arrived there. Clearly that was not the case in the UK although, mysteriously, we seem to have just discovered that idea one year later!

XFool wrote:
Lootman wrote:On the other hand. telling people they cannot meet outdoors with one other person outside their household even if they socially distance and wear masks? Nonsense and useless.

Were we ever actually told that? I know I have seen it said more than once, but I met one person outdoors during the first lockdown and also during this lockdown. AFAIK I have been keeping to the rules as closely as possible.

Last April/May we were told we could not have a visitor to our home even if we only talked to them in our front or back garden, wearing masks and keeping 2 metres apart.

Like you we used our judgement and decided that was a restriction too far with little utility.

I believe that in China and Spain people were told they could not leave their home without explicit permission, rather like the recent and probably doomed forced hotel quarantine policy.

PinkDalek
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Re: The vaccine

#388284

Postby PinkDalek » February 20th, 2021, 8:26 pm

onthemove wrote:
XFool wrote:Were we ever actually told that? I know I have seen it said more than once, but I met one person outdoors during the first lockdown and also during this lockdown. AFAIK I have been keeping to the rules as closely as possible.


https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lo ... her-people
"Meeting other people: It is against the law to meet socially with family or friends unless they are part of your household or support bubble. You cannot leave home for recreational or leisure purposes (such as for a picnic or a social meeting)."


Unless XFool is:

Exercising

You should minimise time spent outside your home, but you can leave your home to exercise. This should be limited to once per day, and you should not travel outside your local area.

You can exercise in a public outdoor place:

by yourself
with the people you live with
with your support bubble (if you are legally permitted to form one)
in a childcare bubble where providing childcare
or, when on your own, with 1 person from another household

onthemove
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Re: The vaccine

#388286

Postby onthemove » February 20th, 2021, 8:37 pm

PinkDalek wrote:
onthemove wrote:
XFool wrote:Were we ever actually told that? I know I have seen it said more than once, but I met one person outdoors during the first lockdown and also during this lockdown. AFAIK I have been keeping to the rules as closely as possible.


https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lo ... her-people
"Meeting other people: It is against the law to meet socially with family or friends unless they are part of your household or support bubble. You cannot leave home for recreational or leisure purposes (such as for a picnic or a social meeting)."


Unless XFool is:

Exercising

You should minimise time spent outside your home, but you can leave your home to exercise. This should be limited to once per day, and you should not travel outside your local area.

You can exercise in a public outdoor place:

by yourself
with the people you live with
with your support bubble (if you are legally permitted to form one)
in a childcare bubble where providing childcare
or, when on your own, with 1 person from another household


XFool was asking "were we ever actually told that" ...i.e. "that" being that "...they cannot meet outdoors with one other person outside their household even if they socially distance and wear masks?" ... and the answer is yes we were told that, and we still are being told that, by the government who tell us it is actually in law and you can be prosecuted if you fail to comply.

XFool wasn't asking if there was a loophole where you could get away with it if you called it exercise at the same time. XFool was responding to the statement that you can't meet outdoors even if socially distancing and wearing masks, and the answer to that is absolutely, that is not just what the government are advising, but they have made it law and you will be breaking the law if you go outside and meet a friend, even if you socially distance and wear a mask.

There is a loophole if you do it while exercising, but that wasn't what XFool was asking about when XFool asked "were we ever actually told that".

jackdaww
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Re: The vaccine

#388327

Postby jackdaww » February 21st, 2021, 7:55 am

Lanark wrote:
jackdaww wrote:
i am no great fan of governments , but why they would shoot themselves in the foot and cause havoc with the economy and peoples lives

by employing lockdowns is incomprehensible to me .

:roll:

What part of lockdown are you finding incomprehensible?

They are in use in just about every country in the world and have proven beyond any doubt to slow down the spread of what would otherwise be an exponential epidemic.


====================================

apologies - my woolly wording has possibly been misunderstood .

to be clear i fully support lock down - the only practical way .

on the other hand , if ALL people BEHAVED in accordance with rules on distance , masks etc , lockdowns could have been avoided .

:oops:

Arborbridge
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Re: The vaccine

#388328

Postby Arborbridge » February 21st, 2021, 7:57 am

tjh290633 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:I think it shows that vaccination works, but that lockdown has no effect.

TJH


Strnge: lockdown imposed in UK - infection numbers and deaths start tailing off; lockdown lifted and school go back - infections rise and deaths increase; lcokdown started and infections fall, deaths decrease.

Seems pretty consistent to me. An ABAB test: what more does one want?

Arb

There might have been a natural peak and decline in the virus's life. The second one would appear to be down to the Kent mutation, again with a natural rise and fall, but with the effect of vaccination superimposed. There is no control sample without lockdown, so nobody will ever know.

TJH


The increase in infections occurred before the Kent variation - which then only served to make matters worse. The increases and decreases tie in extremely well with the lockdowns and releases, both on the general level and on the local intereactive map level. Before Kent swept across the country progressing very neatly from the east in a purple tide, there were already we clear increases which were related to unlocking - many of us thought this would happen and it did.

We don't do not have a control sample, but we do have a very clear ABA experiment the results of which are plain for all who want to see.

There is a group of people which does not accept lockdown wisdom for whatever reason, and they can't see the clear affects that the rest of us notice. A classic example of both sides seeing what they want to see? No, I'm seeing the blooming obvious: others are ignoring it. ;) 8-)


Arb.

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Re: The vaccine

#388334

Postby Leif » February 21st, 2021, 9:34 am

Apologies if this has been mentioned, but there are prominent commentators who actively oppose lockdown. One of the best known is Peter Hitchens, a Daily Mail contributor. He is regularly on Talk Radio. I heard some early ‘discussions’ and Hitchens steam rollered over the then sceptical and unprepared interviewer. The interviewer is now a firm anti lockdown supporter. And judging by the comments, a lot of people think lockdown is a sham

The Swedish example proves it isn’t. Sweden has had far more deaths than neighbouring countries that did lockdowns.

It’s a problem in a democracy. In China you ban people from leaving home, and in flats guards lock the main door at night!

jackdaww
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Re: The vaccine

#388336

Postby jackdaww » February 21st, 2021, 10:04 am

Leif wrote:Apologies if this has been mentioned, but there are prominent commentators who actively oppose lockdown. One of the best known is Peter Hitchens, a Daily Mail contributor. He is regularly on Talk Radio. I heard some early ‘discussions’ and Hitchens steam rollered over the then sceptical and unprepared interviewer. The interviewer is now a firm anti lockdown supporter. And judging by the comments, a lot of people think lockdown is a sham

The Swedish example proves it isn’t. Sweden has had far more deaths than neighbouring countries that did lockdowns.

It’s a problem in a democracy. In China you ban people from leaving home, and in flats guards lock the main door at night!


============================

i wonder what his brother Christopher would have made of it ..

:?:

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Re: The vaccine

#388350

Postby Bubblesofearth » February 21st, 2021, 10:45 am

Leif wrote:
The Swedish example proves it isn’t. Sweden has had far more deaths than neighbouring countries that did lockdowns.



Why compare Sweden to countries immediately next to it?

The death rate in Sweden is typical of much of Europe.

BoE

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Re: The vaccine

#388353

Postby Nimrod103 » February 21st, 2021, 10:56 am

Arborbridge wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
Strnge: lockdown imposed in UK - infection numbers and deaths start tailing off; lockdown lifted and school go back - infections rise and deaths increase; lcokdown started and infections fall, deaths decrease.

Seems pretty consistent to me. An ABAB test: what more does one want?

Arb

There might have been a natural peak and decline in the virus's life. The second one would appear to be down to the Kent mutation, again with a natural rise and fall, but with the effect of vaccination superimposed. There is no control sample without lockdown, so nobody will ever know.

TJH


The increase in infections occurred before the Kent variation - which then only served to make matters worse. The increases and decreases tie in extremely well with the lockdowns and releases, both on the general level and on the local intereactive map level. Before Kent swept across the country progressing very neatly from the east in a purple tide, there were already we clear increases which were related to unlocking - many of us thought this would happen and it did.

We don't do not have a control sample, but we do have a very clear ABA experiment the results of which are plain for all who want to see.

There is a group of people which does not accept lockdown wisdom for whatever reason, and they can't see the clear affects that the rest of us notice. A classic example of both sides seeing what they want to see? No, I'm seeing the blooming obvious: others are ignoring it. ;) 8-)


Arb.


The trouble is, we still have a very unclear knowledge of how this virus spreads. It is only too easy to jump to facile conclusions.
Do schools spread Covid? The most recent informed evidence says not: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56072460
Does it spread outdoors? Quite unlikely: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55680305
Does it spread via touching surfaces? Rarely: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00251-4

But these studies do not seem to be being fed into how the lockdowns are designed.

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Re: The vaccine

#388356

Postby Bubblesofearth » February 21st, 2021, 11:04 am

Nimrod103 wrote:Do schools spread Covid? The most recent informed evidence says not: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56072460


No, that's not what the study showed at all. It reported no increase in sick days and then goes on to say that kids do spread Covid but are a lot less likely to get sick with it themselves.

We've known that for some time.

BoE

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Re: The vaccine

#388361

Postby Nimrod103 » February 21st, 2021, 11:22 am

Bubblesofearth wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:Do schools spread Covid? The most recent informed evidence says not: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56072460


No, that's not what the study showed at all. It reported no increase in sick days and then goes on to say that kids do spread Covid but are a lot less likely to get sick with it themselves.

We've known that for some time.

BoE


The argument is being used to keep schools shut. Are teachers getting more sick than the rest of the population of a similar age and health distribution?
https://fullfact.org/health/teacher-covid-transmission/
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... d-says-ons
So no evidence of that either.

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Re: The vaccine

#388363

Postby Arborbridge » February 21st, 2021, 11:28 am

Nimrod103 wrote:The trouble is, we still have a very unclear knowledge of how this virus spreads. It is only too easy to jump to facile conclusions.
Do schools spread Covid? The most recent informed evidence says not: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56072460
Does it spread outdoors? Quite unlikely: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55680305
Does it spread via touching surfaces? Rarely: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00251-4

But these studies do not seem to be being fed into how the lockdowns are designed.


True enough: there is probably not enough discreet data, but for a safety first approach society has sensibly used a broad brush. Lockdowns appear to be working: unlockdowns appear to do the opposite. So the broad brush says keep social mixing wherever and however, to a minimum. Then when more detailed data is available, use it to pinpoint the grey areas. I assume that's what happened previously, and will be happening now/next time.

Unfortunately, Johnson was too ready to have a pretty wild "unlock" before. We could see at the time that it was very much in haste, and the second wve disaster quite well foreseen. We went too far too fast: however, whatever we did would have only delayed the inevitable.

Arb.


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