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Re: Stuff removed from vaccines thread.

Posted: February 21st, 2021, 5:00 pm
by Lootman
Lanark wrote:So if your local area includes a beach there's nothing to stop you from using it.

Except that some beaches have been closed by local authorities, or the access to them has been restricted, so it's not always true that you can use them.

My approach to the restrictions is to take less notice of the chapter and verse, and more notice of the principles behind it. There is a very real sense in which rules are written for the most stupid of the populace, and not for those educated enough to be able to independently assess risk. After all, most of us know how to behave well in general, without reading any statutes.

I consider that I conduct myself in a manner that is very low risk in terms of virus transmission. That does not mean I follow the rules to the tee. But rather that I use my best judgement.

Re: (Not) The vaccine

Posted: February 21st, 2021, 5:07 pm
by XFool
onthemove wrote:We've seen the evidence that if you absolve the population of responsibility, lock them down, and then later tell them it's OK to go about their business again, in fact, even encourage them to do so with "Eat out to help out", then yes the virus spreads again.

But this tells you nothing about how that same population would have behaved if they had been told from the beginning that the outcome is entirely up to them... that there is a serious disease out there, that you you'll be given all the relevant data, and all the relevant advice of the scientists about ways you can mitigate the risk to you and your family and the people around you, but that it's up to you to evaluate the appropriate level and to behave appropriately.

Indeed so. The trouble is, well, just that!

This is the old "There is no such thing as society" argument writ large. Everyone in their own little universe. Now, if that were so, your idea would work splendidly. Trouble is, with an infectious disease... Well, as I said: "You either get this, or you don't."

onthemove wrote:You really believe that when people see the hospitals over capacity, their friends and relations getting ill and dying, that people would just carry on regardless like mindless zombies?

Nope. That would bring them (well, most of them!) up short. But how many would have already died and how many more would go on to die, if that point was reached?

You seem to be depending on the population unaided having an inbuilt fine grained sense of, and control over, the epidemic - I'm not convinced of this.
Undoubtedly something like that would be so to an extent, but at what level of deaths would it settle? That's before we even get to the politics. :)

onthemove wrote:Because that's effectively what the argument is for legally enforced lockdowns.

No it isn't. It's your argument against lockdowns.

Re: Stuff removed from vaccines thread.

Posted: February 21st, 2021, 5:49 pm
by Arborbridge
onthemove wrote:
...the evidence suggests that the infection peak at christmas was not related to the relaxing of rules...

"...a closer look at the numbers suggests this trend was already happening and was probably caused by the new, more infectious variant of the virus rather than increased contact between people ... He says the research did not show an increase in contacts with more vulnerable groups, such as elderly people, as expected. This suggests people may have decided not to spend Christmas with those at higher risk from the virus.." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55669736




I do not accept that. The second wave was already well underway before the Kent variant was isolated and the beginning tied in very well with the ending of lockdown.
My view is that the second wave clearly became a big driver, but that Johnson used the information about it as a convenient fiction to cover the fact that he was too keen to unlock.

I'm not saying that the second wave wouldn't have happened, just that it began when lockdown ended, not when Kent spread its purple splurge from east to west.

Arb.

Re: Stuff removed from vaccines thread.

Posted: February 21st, 2021, 6:21 pm
by onthemove
Arborbridge wrote:
onthemove wrote:
...the evidence suggests that the infection peak at christmas was not related to the relaxing of rules...

"...a closer look at the numbers suggests this trend was already happening and was probably caused by the new, more infectious variant of the virus rather than increased contact between people ... He says the research did not show an increase in contacts with more vulnerable groups, such as elderly people, as expected. This suggests people may have decided not to spend Christmas with those at higher risk from the virus.." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55669736




I do not accept that. The second wave was already well underway before the Kent variant was isolated and the beginning tied in very well with the ending of lockdown.
My view is that the second wave clearly became a big driver, but that Johnson used the information about it as a convenient fiction to cover the fact that he was too keen to unlock.

I'm not saying that the second wave wouldn't have happened, just that it began when lockdown ended, not when Kent spread its purple splurge from east to west.

Arb.


I don't agree.

Whilst I don't agree with lockdowns, I was at the time puzzled as to why Boris was ending the second lockdown, because infection rates were not particularly falling.

The 'kent variant' was, from what I recall, subsequently discovered to have originated before the second wave, ...

"The first sample of the new coronavirus strain was discovered in a person who lived near Canterbury in September, according to scientists. https://www.kentlive.news/news/kent-new ... ow-4866103"


And if you look at the government's coronavirus map https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map and use the slider to see different dates, you can see that the Kent region was growing bluer / purpler all the way through November during that lockdown, when other parts of the country had decreasing rates.

It was already clear that the November lockdown was not suppressing the infection rate in Kent towards the end of November, before that November lockdown was ended.

Re: Stuff removed from vaccines thread.

Posted: February 21st, 2021, 7:17 pm
by XFool
onthemove wrote:
Leif wrote:Scepticism is common.

Scepticism is nowhere near as common as you think.

That is just another part of the hysteria being generated by the media.

Do you actually in the real world, know anyone at all - I'm not talking anonymous people on face plant or whatever - I'm talking people you actually know in person, who is in any way sceptical of covid?

I suspect the vast majority posting on this board don't either.

Though I wouldn't be surprised if there are some trolls who might pretend to be, or pretend to know someone, just to, well, be trolls.

Whatever you say, I can't fault you when it comes to objective, evidence backed claims. 8-)

Re: Stuff removed from vaccines thread.

Posted: February 21st, 2021, 10:40 pm
by servodude
onthemove wrote:I have made the point, and not seen anyone who is arguing for lockdowns for covid give a rational answer that is also compatible with our national stance on flu each winter, that we don't lock down, we don't wear masks and people do die. But we accept that.


I've yet to see anyone conflating the approach to COVID with that of the flu properly address that they aren't easily comparable

A while ago I was listening "More or Less" on my cycling commute, this one: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p093zrmb

About 4 minutes in they address the flu comparison with COVID

The two nuggets they presented that stuck are:
"Data from Public Health England shows that in the worst recent year for winter flu 2017-2018 just under 10000 patients were hospitalised over a 28 week period"
- during the last peak you'd exceed that in COVID patients in 3 days

"In 2017-2018 just under 3500 flu patients needed to be cared for in an intensive care unit or high dependency unit over that 28 week period"
- over new year that many were admitted for COVID in 3 weeks

If you want the horse's mouth on those flu figures they're on the gov site: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... lu-reports
- the year in question: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... o_2018.pdf

If the hospitals were being overrun by flu patients every year some might change their approach to the flu?

Perhaps we should let the COVID patients just die?
- or at least free up half the ICU beds they are using by not giving you one once you've reached 62; save the beds for those that "contribute"

and I reckon that when there is next a really bad flu (e.g 1918-19) you can expect the masks, distancing and "lockdowns" to rear their heads again (as they did in 1918 ;) )

- sd

Re: Stuff removed from vaccines thread.

Posted: February 21st, 2021, 11:13 pm
by 88V8
onthemove wrote:To pigeon hole people as "naive in the extreme" because they don't accept the need for masks, is being derogatory towards such people.

With good reason.
The merit of masks in suppressing transmission of an airborne disease is so bleedin obvious it barely needs stating.
If it were not so, why do hospital staff wear masks and other PPE ? Do they just enjoy dressing up?

Or rather, I should say, the potential merit of masks.
Too many people wear ineffectual 'fashion' masks, single layer, no nose clip. Masks poorly chosen and sloppily worn are not very effective. But still better than nothing.

So, yes, I take a derogatory view of people who suggest otherwise.

V8

Re: Stuff removed from vaccines thread.

Posted: February 22nd, 2021, 1:17 pm
by gryffron
Moderator Message:
Numerous posts removed.
Please refrain from personal spats on ANY board.
Gryffron

Re: Stuff removed from vaccines thread.

Posted: February 22nd, 2021, 1:35 pm
by Mike4
88V8 wrote:
onthemove wrote:To pigeon hole people as "naive in the extreme" because they don't accept the need for masks, is being derogatory towards such people.

With good reason.
The merit of masks in suppressing transmission of an airborne disease is so bleedin obvious it barely needs stating.
If it were not so, why do hospital staff wear masks and other PPE ? Do they just enjoy dressing up?

Or rather, I should say, the potential merit of masks.
Too many people wear ineffectual 'fashion' masks, single layer, no nose clip. Masks poorly chosen and sloppily worn are not very effective. But still better than nothing.

So, yes, I take a derogatory view of people who suggest otherwise.

V8


Seconded.

There seems to be a tendency for people to say masks are not proven 100% effective so therefore should not be used. This makes no sense.

There are NO measures against COVID that are 100% effective so all we have is a variety of partially effective measures, mask-wearing being one of them. Dr Campbell uses the analogy of slices of Swiss cheese, each slice being full of holes which let an imaginary and notional virus pass straight through. Put two slices together though, and some of the holes won't align so more virus gets stopped. Have three slices and there will be even fewer paths through, etc etc. So the more measures we take the better, even when each individual measure can be demonstrated not to be 100% effective.

Masks, ventilation, social distancing, vaccination are all we actually have. None is 100% effective so should we perhaps not bother with any?

Re: Stuff removed from vaccines thread.

Posted: February 22nd, 2021, 2:07 pm
by onthemove
Mike4 wrote:
88V8 wrote:
onthemove wrote:To pigeon hole people as "naive in the extreme" because they don't accept the need for masks, is being derogatory towards such people.

With good reason.
The merit of masks in suppressing transmission of an airborne disease is so bleedin obvious it barely needs stating.
If it were not so, why do hospital staff wear masks and other PPE ? Do they just enjoy dressing up?

Or rather, I should say, the potential merit of masks.
Too many people wear ineffectual 'fashion' masks, single layer, no nose clip. Masks poorly chosen and sloppily worn are not very effective. But still better than nothing.

So, yes, I take a derogatory view of people who suggest otherwise.

V8


Seconded.

There seems to be a tendency for people to say masks are not proven 100% effective so therefore should not be used. This makes no sense.

There are NO measures against COVID that are 100% effective so all we have is a variety of partially effective measures, mask-wearing being one of them. Dr Campbell uses the analogy of slices of Swiss cheese, each slice being full of holes which let an imaginary and notional virus pass straight through. Put two slices together though, and some of the holes won't align so more virus gets stopped. Have three slices and there will be even fewer paths through, etc etc. So the more measures we take the better, even when each individual measure can be demonstrated not to be 100% effective.

Masks, ventilation, social distancing, vaccination are all we actually have. None is 100% effective so should we perhaps not bother with any?


Who are you (both 88V8 and Mike4) arguing against?

Who on this thread has said that masks don't work, or that masks aren't 100% effective so therefore no-one should bother with them?

It's certainly not what I've said, yet you've both included my username and a quote from me at the top your posts.

Re: Stuff removed from vaccines thread.

Posted: February 22nd, 2021, 2:24 pm
by Mike4
onthemove wrote:Who are you (both 88V8 and Mike4) arguing against?

Who on this thread has said that masks don't work, or that masks aren't 100% effective so therefore no-one should bother with them?

It's certainly not what I've said, yet you've both included my username and a quote from me at the top your posts.



I think we are arguing with the people who "don't accept the need for masks", to quote you from earlier.

And in passing, could you perhaps clarify your own views on the need for masks, please? I'm a bit confused now.

Thanks.

Re: Stuff removed from vaccines thread.

Posted: February 22nd, 2021, 2:25 pm
by onthemove
Mike4 wrote:There seems to be a tendency for people to say masks are not proven 100% effective so therefore should not be used. This makes no sense.

There are NO measures against COVID that are 100% effective so all we have is a variety of partially effective measures, mask-wearing being one of them. Dr Campbell uses the analogy of slices of Swiss cheese, each slice being full of holes which let an imaginary and notional virus pass straight through. Put two slices together though, and some of the holes won't align so more virus gets stopped. Have three slices and there will be even fewer paths through, etc etc. So the more measures we take the better, even when each individual measure can be demonstrated not to be 100% effective.

Masks, ventilation, social distancing, vaccination are all we actually have. None is 100% effective so should we perhaps not bother with any?


But that isn't the argument being had.

The argument is whether they - lockdowns, masks, etc - should be mandatorily enforced, or whether the general public should be treated with respect and left to choose for themselves what level of social, personal disruption they wish to balance with covid risks and pressure on the NHS.

Social distancing (in supermarkets), vaccination and ventilation aren't mandatory (in law) but masks are.

If the argument is that simply being proven to work, even if partially, is justification enough for making anything mandatory, then are you saying vaccination should be mandatory?

Ventilation should be mandatory?

I referenced a scientific (from the BMJ iirc) that reckoned you could reduce the risk (by almost 80%) of transmission to other members of your household if you wore a mask at home, but only while asymptomatic, so you'd have to wear it all the time... it'd be too late once you know you've got covid .. same argument as for masks in shops ... should masks at home therefore be made mandatory (where more than 1 person per household)?

To be quite honest, I was astounded to read that one of the people arguing against me, and saying that masks and lockdowns absolutely should be mandatory because they help, then went on to admit that they refused the flu vaccine, even though the NHS really wanted to get as many people vaccinated with the flu jab to protect the NHS... even if you don't think you're at risk yourself, there's still the risk you pass it on to someone who is, so for someone telling me that I absolutely must wear a mask, when they themselves are happy to choose not to take the flu vaccine and play their part, is really taking the biscuit.

It seems like the people who want things to be mandatory, only want the things that they want and/or are happy to do to be mandatory, but not those things they themselves would prefer not to do.

Apparently when I asked previously whether mask should be mandatory at home, I was told I was being ridiculous. That's quite staggering because the science and the rationale between masks in the shops and masks at home is just the same. How can someone be supportive of one being mandatory (because the evidence says it works) and then declare it's absolutely ridiculous to suggest the other should be mandatory, when it's scientifically proven just as effective?

There really is no consistency to the apparent 'rationale' being used to argue for compulsion.

Re: Stuff removed from vaccines thread.

Posted: February 22nd, 2021, 3:15 pm
by XFool
onthemove wrote:
Mike4 wrote:Masks, ventilation, social distancing, vaccination are all we actually have. None is 100% effective so should we perhaps not bother with any?

But that isn't the argument being had.

Yes it is!

:twisted:

onthemove wrote:The argument is whether they - lockdowns, masks, etc - should be mandatorily enforced, or whether the general public should be treated with respect and left to choose for themselves what level of social, personal disruption they wish to balance with covid risks and pressure on the NHS.

Sounds like the old, original 'Herd immunity' type argument to me. That was abandoned yonks ago. Who needs this warmed over stale chicken soup? Nobody wants another lockdown and hopefully, if things are handled well, we won't need one from now on. With luck, by now we are in a different situation.

My advice: Get over it!

Re: Stuff removed from vaccines thread.

Posted: February 22nd, 2021, 3:27 pm
by onthemove
Mike4 wrote:I think we are arguing with the people who "don't accept the need for masks", to quote you from earlier.

And in passing, could you perhaps clarify your own views on the need for masks, please? I'm a bit confused now.

Thanks.


Both your (88v8 and and yourself) seem to be arguing against the people who believe that masks don't work and/or are saying they should not be used at all...

To remind you, you said....

"There seems to be a tendency for people to say masks are not proven 100% effective so therefore should not be used. This makes no sense."

I've never argued that just because they are not 100% that they therefore should not be used.

I said it should be left to the population to decide if and when they feel the risks warrant wearing masks; as I've repeatedly said, some people may prefer to do other things instead. That doesn't mean they don't think masks work at all, nor does it mean those people aren't doing their bit (shopping at quieter times, being stricter about maintaining distance, etc).

At no point have I said that people should not wear a mask even if they want to wear one, and at no point have I been derogatory towards people who do choose to wear a mask if that's how they want to play their part. Like I say, I'm arguing for personal choice in the approaches we take in order to play our part.

88v8 said..

"The merit of masks in suppressing transmission of an airborne disease is so bleedin obvious it barely needs stating.
If it were not so, why do hospital staff wear masks and other PPE ? Do they just enjoy dressing up?"

Again, this isn't addressing the question of need. It's arguing about effectiveness. These are two different things. I'm not arguing about effectiveness, I'm arguing about need / compulsion.

Mike4, you've asked for my views on the _need_ for masks, although I have already expressed them. But I'll repeat, if it isn't already obvious, I don't think they should be mandatory; I don't think they need to be worn by everyone to the degree mandated by law.

I have already pointed out that we got infections down in the first lockdown without mandatory mask wearing by the public, so there is clear incontrovertible evidence that masks worn by the public are not *critical*; without them being mandatory for the public we can still combat covid. So I stand by my view - with evidence - that masks are not an absolute necessity to be worn by everyone, and therefore I don't believe they should be mandatory.

Doesn't mean they don't have their place. Doctors, nurses, care workers, particularly when they've been trained in proper use and are expected to use them effectively because of their profession, absolutely masks have a role. I'm certainly not going to claim they're ineffective.

To repeat - I have no problem with people wearing them if they want - even the public if they want.

To be honest, before they became mandatory, I took someone wearing a mask as a sign that they had particular concerns more than others (for whatever reason, even if it was just nervousness on their part) and I respected that by giving them extra space, etc. Much like if you see someone walking down the street with a white stick, it being 'white' is all part of social signalling to let you know they are blind so that you can be mindful of that without having to make a fuss or embarrass them. I treated people wearing face masks before they came mandatory as a similar kind of social signal that told me the person had a higher concern than others about covid and I'd adjust my behaviour to respect that.

So I do believe there are even some arguments in favour of public mask wearing being a voluntary choice, rather than mandated on everyone.

Re: Stuff removed from vaccines thread.

Posted: February 22nd, 2021, 4:52 pm
by Bubblesofearth
onthemove wrote:So I do believe there are even some arguments in favour of public mask wearing being a voluntary choice, rather than mandated on everyone.


If you believe masks help reduce transmission of covid then they should be mandated. Prior to the wearing of masks being compulsory almost no-one wore them. It's the healthcare equivalent of the tragedy of the commons. In many situations people act in their own self-interest at the expense of the public good unless forced otherwise. Climate change is perhaps the most topical and large-scale example of this.

As I mentioned earlier in this thread, speeding or drink driving are good examples of this selfish behaviour that was only significantly reduced by legislation. Do you think those behaviours should have remained voluntary?

BoE

Re: Stuff removed from vaccines thread.

Posted: February 22nd, 2021, 10:28 pm
by servodude
Bubblesofearth wrote:
onthemove wrote:So I do believe there are even some arguments in favour of public mask wearing being a voluntary choice, rather than mandated on everyone.


If you believe masks help reduce transmission of covid then they should be mandated. Prior to the wearing of masks being compulsory almost no-one wore them. It's the healthcare equivalent of the tragedy of the commons. In many situations people act in their own self-interest at the expense of the public good unless forced otherwise. Climate change is perhaps the most topical and large-scale example of this.

As I mentioned earlier in this thread, speeding or drink driving are good examples of this selfish behaviour that was only significantly reduced by legislation. Do you think those behaviours should have remained voluntary?

BoE


This pandemic business has been about for a while now
In that time
masks
social distancing
hand washing
ventilation
quarantine post travel
have all been understood (by most anyway :roll: ) and voluntary

given the number of dead people, the load on the hospitals, and the new variants of virus I'd say that the balance of evidence points to this requiring more than suggestions of what to do

- sd

Re: Stuff removed from vaccines thread.

Posted: February 22nd, 2021, 11:19 pm
by 88V8
onthemove wrote:I have already pointed out that we got infections down in the first lockdown without mandatory mask wearing by the public, so there is clear incontrovertible evidence that masks worn by the public are not *critical*; without them being mandatory for the public we can still combat covid. So I stand by my view - with evidence - that masks are not an absolute necessity to be worn by everyone, and therefore I don't believe they should be mandatory.
So I do believe there are even some arguments in favour of public mask wearing being a voluntary choice, rather than mandated on everyone.

Mask wearing in private indoor spaces is a step too far imv, and not enforceable anyway.
In public spaces however enforcement is both pro bono and feasible. A means of diminishing transmission and shortening lockdowns, or what is currently mislabelled lockdown.
No one really likes having to wear them. If it were made optional, many would not, and others would resent that they were allowed to get away with it.
We can better combat covid if we are not breathing on one another.

Outdoors, I agree it is on the whole pointless, other than in crowds.
I don't, but I keep a polite distance from those who are concerned enough to do so.

V8

Re: Stuff removed from vaccines thread.

Posted: February 23rd, 2021, 12:03 am
by servodude
88V8 wrote:
onthemove wrote:I have already pointed out that we got infections down in the first lockdown without mandatory mask wearing by the public, so there is clear incontrovertible evidence that masks worn by the public are not *critical*; without them being mandatory for the public we can still combat covid. So I stand by my view - with evidence - that masks are not an absolute necessity to be worn by everyone, and therefore I don't believe they should be mandatory.
So I do believe there are even some arguments in favour of public mask wearing being a voluntary choice, rather than mandated on everyone.

Mask wearing in private indoor spaces is a step too far imv, and not enforceable anyway.
In public spaces however enforcement is both pro bono and feasible. A means of diminishing transmission and shortening lockdowns, or what is currently mislabelled lockdown.
No one really likes having to wear them. If it were made optional, many would not, and others would resent that they were allowed to get away with it.
We can better combat covid if we are not breathing on one another.

Outdoors, I agree it is on the whole pointless, other than in crowds.
I don't, but I keep a polite distance from those who are concerned enough to do so.

V8


I have this link saved in my bookmarks from a recent post

https://tomaspueyo.medium.com/coronavirus-the-swiss-cheese-strategy-d6332b5939de

it does a good job of collating and comparing the strategies, responses and results taken to this pandemic
- and why a multiple faceted approach is best i.e. the measures you take compound

you look at any given measure you can say it's not needed
- that's obviously true and also a terrible argument (albeit not as bad as the "we reached herd immunity before lockdown so should do nothing" one)
- but it's a bawhair away from "none of these are necessary so we should do nothing"
which is the kind of syllogistic navel gazing that leaves you with a lot more dead people

- sd

Re: Stuff removed from vaccines thread.

Posted: February 23rd, 2021, 9:20 am
by Mike4
servodude wrote:
I have this link saved in my bookmarks from a recent post

https://tomaspueyo.medium.com/coronavirus-the-swiss-cheese-strategy-d6332b5939de


what a wonderfully explained and thorough analysis of how to control a pandemic.

If only people (our politicians especially) would read it.

Re: Stuff removed from vaccines thread.

Posted: February 23rd, 2021, 9:51 am
by 88V8
servodude wrote:- ...it's a bawhair away ...the kind of syllogistic

Beerpig... the Lemonfool word of the week thread...

V8