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New variants

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
servodude
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Re: New variants

#399049

Postby servodude » March 25th, 2021, 10:23 pm

zico wrote:
9873210 wrote:Re: effective lockdowns create mutations.

This is why the variants of concern are named after Melbourne, Canberra and Auckland, rather than Brazil, California, UK or RSA.

:roll: :roll: :roll:


Hang on, the 3 main variants of concern - Kent (UK), South Africa, Brazil. (Your RSA is presumably Republic of South Africa).


The Melbourne variant looked like it was going to be nasty
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/29/dodged-a-bullet-melbourne-lockdown-may-have-prevented-more-deadly-covid-19-variant
"no one talks about this Melbourne variant anymore, because we got rid of it."


Mutations happen, and they happen a lot with RNA viruses - the trick appears not to let them spread ;)

- sd

9873210
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Re: New variants

#399067

Postby 9873210 » March 25th, 2021, 11:39 pm

zico wrote:
9873210 wrote:Re: effective lockdowns create mutations.

This is why the variants of concern are named after Melbourne, Canberra and Auckland, rather than Brazil, California, UK or RSA.

:roll: :roll: :roll:


Hang on, the 3 main variants of concern - Kent (UK), South Africa, Brazil. (Your RSA is presumably Republic of South Africa).


Just how many eye rolls do I need for sarcasm?

zico
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Re: New variants

#399070

Postby zico » March 25th, 2021, 11:55 pm

9873210 wrote:Just how many eye rolls do I need for sarcasm?


Sorry, I missed that! I'm too used to replying to posts which deny any link between imposing lockdowns and reductions in cases.

servodude
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Re: New variants

#399072

Postby servodude » March 26th, 2021, 12:08 am

zico wrote:
9873210 wrote:Just how many eye rolls do I need for sarcasm?


Sorry, I missed that! I'm too used to replying to posts which deny any link between imposing lockdowns and reductions in cases.


CorRelatIOn doeS not iMPLy CaUSATIon ! :roll:
it didn't in March, or April, or September, or December
- how many times !!

- sd ;)

Mike4
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Re: New variants

#399088

Postby Mike4 » March 26th, 2021, 7:19 am

servodude wrote:
zico wrote:
9873210 wrote:Just how many eye rolls do I need for sarcasm?


Sorry, I missed that! I'm too used to replying to posts which deny any link between imposing lockdowns and reductions in cases.


CorRelatIOn doeS not iMPLy CaUSATIon ! :roll:
it didn't in March, or April, or September, or December
- how many times !!

- sd ;)


It is a good question though.

How many lockdowns followed by a reduction in prevalence will it take, for the CorRelatIOn to become accepted as CaUSATIon?

Or statistically significant perhaps?

About 25,000 would be my guess :roll: :roll: :roll:

servodude
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Re: New variants

#399090

Postby servodude » March 26th, 2021, 7:34 am

Mike4 wrote:
servodude wrote:
zico wrote:
Sorry, I missed that! I'm too used to replying to posts which deny any link between imposing lockdowns and reductions in cases.


CorRelatIOn doeS not iMPLy CaUSATIon ! :roll:
it didn't in March, or April, or September, or December
- how many times !!

- sd ;)


It is a good question though.

How many lockdowns followed by a reduction in prevalence will it take, for the CorRelatIOn to become accepted as CaUSATIon?

Or statistically significant perhaps?

About 25,000 would be my guess :roll: :roll: :roll:


At least we'll get there eventually! :D

zico
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Re: New variants

#399200

Postby zico » March 26th, 2021, 12:32 pm

Personally I'm surprised that the lockdown/vaccination/reality sceptics didn't point to the similiarities in the deaths and vaccinations curves during December and January.
Just look at the acceleration in UK deaths from mid-December, exactly when the vaccinations started rolling out in big numbers.

Julian
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Re: New variants

#399260

Postby Julian » March 26th, 2021, 3:39 pm

For those that like to try and get some scientific insight into some of this stuff from appropriate experts in the field there is a YouTube channel that I follow that just posted a video entitled "COVID Variants vs. Coronavirus Vaccines (AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson) + Immunity" that might be of interest to some on this thread. It's 54:24 long and if I'm honest maybe a bit repetitive in places, I suspect it could have been edited down to not much more than half the length, but on the other hand it's nice that the guy being interviewed is allowed to talk and doesn't keep getting cut off by a change of subject as happens on so many TV news interviews. The timeline has annotated chapter markers so it is possible to skip to sections that have chapter titles that look the most personally interesting.

The bits I found most interesting were...

20:28 - I think many of us probably heard that the antibody response produced by the first dose of a vaccine is stronger in people who have already been vaccinated but I didn't quite realise just how much stronger. Apparently there are now 5 studies on this and the concensus this guy is reporting is that the level of antibodies produced after the first vaccination if you have already had Covid is about 50 (yes, fifty!) times that if you haven't. Throughout he mostly prefaces vaccine comments as being mRNA vaccines since he is in the USA so that is of most interest but the AZ, J&J and Novavax vaccines are mentioned a few times at various points in the interview.

25:00 - This is possibly where the discussion of variants and vaccines gets going.

38:43 - This is a discussion of infection stages that I found interesting and explains some of the underlying science theories right now about why protection from pretty much all the vaccines tends to be partial (still being determined) against transmission, good against mild/moderate symptomatic disease and spectacular against hospitalisation and death. One theory is that you need a much stronger immune response to fight off the very first stage of the infection when you might be asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms so you need very high antibody levels to fight the virus in that early stage. Once Covid-19 gets into your lungs though and starts potentially getting nasty that stage of the disease progression takes longer so your immune system has more time to fight the virus hence a lower level of immune response (antibodies, T-cells, memory B-cells) can still clear out the virus at that stage.

45:37 - A discussion of SARS-CoV-2 vs flu and an encouraging personal opinion about how the "boss fight"(*) might end.

Anyway, the full video is here...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aOMs1l ... nedCLEARLY

Another one from this channel that I found useful was a deep dive into how the mRNA vaccines work...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eK0C5tF ... nedCLEARLY

Still long but at 34:28 not as long as the first one.

- Julian

(*) As servodude put it in another post put it which made me smile.

servodude
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Re: New variants

#399404

Postby servodude » March 26th, 2021, 11:43 pm

zico wrote:Personally I'm surprised that the lockdown/vaccination/reality sceptics didn't point to the similiarities in the deaths and vaccinations curves during December and January.
Just look at the acceleration in UK deaths from mid-December, exactly when the vaccinations started rolling out in big numbers.


I have kind of perversely enjoy the flipping of the "died with/from" COVID/vaccine - argument
- shows that common sense isn't

-sd

1nvest
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Re: New variants

#399408

Postby 1nvest » March 27th, 2021, 12:41 am

Please correctly attribute and use China-SARS mutation/variant 1, 2, 3 ...etc.

XFool
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Re: New variants

#399488

Postby XFool » March 27th, 2021, 12:32 pm


GrahamPlatt
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Re: New variants

#399518

Postby GrahamPlatt » March 27th, 2021, 2:08 pm

1nvest wrote:Please correctly attribute and use China-SARS mutation/variant 1, 2, 3 ...etc.



And for that matter, where did the China prefix come from?


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