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Third wave

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
swill453
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Re: Third wave

#400665

Postby swill453 » March 31st, 2021, 7:07 pm

redsturgeon wrote:This talk of a third wave in the UK confuses me. As far as I can tell we have just had the third wave.

First wave peaked in April 2020

Second wave peaked Nov 2020

Third wave peaked Jan 2021

Next wave will surely be the fourth wave.

I guess it's subjective. The pre-Christmas trough wasn't anywhere near as low as the summer one, so who decides whether it constitutes a separate wave?

There have also been other (much) smaller dips in the 7 day average, would they count?

Image

Scott.

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Re: Third wave

#400677

Postby Julian » March 31st, 2021, 8:34 pm

Lootman wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:This talk of a third wave in the UK confuses me. As far as I can tell we have just had the third wave.

First wave peaked in April 2020

Second wave peaked Nov 2020

Third wave peaked Jan 2021

Next wave will surely be the fourth wave.

Agreed although I think the idea is that the 2021 wave will be the last, thanks to vaccinations.


“2021 wave” carefully chosen words? We definitely had a nasty resurgence in early 2021 but there is still time for another at the end of 2021.

My personal hunch is that there will be some level of fight-back by the virus (to anthropomorphise) in late 2021 but whether it will be severe enough to count as another wave I have no idea(*) and I do think that “thanks to vaccinations” withered I interpret “vaccinations” as being double-dose (unless it’s J&J) first full vaccination plus a single booster in last quarter 2021 targeting E484K-carrying variants. Given the wording and applying my interpretation your statement encompasses my hunch.

- Julian

(*) I have no idea about any of it, these are just my lay person’s hunches, or refusal to even form a hunch, based on trying to stay very up to date on as much reported and less reported news as I can.

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Re: Third wave

#400688

Postby 9873210 » March 31st, 2021, 9:26 pm

If you are looking for waves it's probably better to use a semi-log plot.

Whether there is yet another wave later in 2021 probably depends more on the minimum before the possible next wave than the number of cases in the next wave. The easiest way to avoid a new wave is to keep the case rate up so there is no minimum. :o The goal should be such effective control that every single case is a new wave.

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Re: Third wave

#400701

Postby Mike4 » March 31st, 2021, 10:35 pm

Lootman wrote:Agreed although I think the idea is that the 2021 wave will be the last, thanks to vaccinations.


There are still more than enough unvaccinated people for a third wave to rampage through.

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Re: Third wave

#400739

Postby dealtn » April 1st, 2021, 7:52 am

Mike4 wrote:
Lootman wrote:Agreed although I think the idea is that the 2021 wave will be the last, thanks to vaccinations.


There are still more than enough unvaccinated people for a third wave to rampage through.


It depends on what is being counted I suppose.

There are plenty unvaccinated to have another wave of cases. The fact there are relatively few unvaccinated in the most vulnerable groups suggest the extent of a wave of deaths would be more muted (but not non-existent).

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Re: Third wave

#400743

Postby Mike4 » April 1st, 2021, 9:00 am

dealtn wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
Lootman wrote:Agreed although I think the idea is that the 2021 wave will be the last, thanks to vaccinations.


There are still more than enough unvaccinated people for a third wave to rampage through.


It depends on what is being counted I suppose.

There are plenty unvaccinated to have another wave of cases. The fact there are relatively few unvaccinated in the most vulnerable groups suggest the extent of a wave of deaths would be more muted (but not non-existent).



Yes falling back on semantics is often useful. To be honest I'm not entirely sure what I mean by a third wave, or what you mean by "muted".

I keep hearing well qualified people in the media telling us "It isn't over for any of us until its over for all of us". Do you disagree with this and think a third wave of say, mainly asymptomatic infection is inconsequential and can safely be ignored? I can't decide on this point and wonder if the experts are just trotting out a meaningless cliché.

What do you (or anyone here) think? Is it actually over for us here in the UK while waves rage in other parts of the world, despite what our experts are telling us? Or even while the virus is asymptomatic in large parts of our own population?

"Variants of concern", anyone?

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Re: Third wave

#400745

Postby servodude » April 1st, 2021, 9:09 am

Mike4 wrote:
dealtn wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
There are still more than enough unvaccinated people for a third wave to rampage through.


It depends on what is being counted I suppose.

There are plenty unvaccinated to have another wave of cases. The fact there are relatively few unvaccinated in the most vulnerable groups suggest the extent of a wave of deaths would be more muted (but not non-existent).



Yes falling back on semantics is often useful. To be honest I'm not entirely sure what I mean by a third wave, or what you mean by "muted".

I keep hearing well qualified people in the media telling us "It isn't over for any of us until its over for all of us". Do you disagree with this and think a third wave of say, mainly asymptomatic infection is inconsequential and can safely be ignored? I can't decide on this point and wonder if the experts are just trotting out a meaningless cliché.

What do you (or anyone here) think? Is it actually over for us here in the UK while waves rage in other parts of the world, despite what our experts are telling us? Or even while the virus is asymptomatic in large parts of our own population?

"Variants of concern", anyone?


Or variance of concern? ;)

-sd

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Re: Third wave

#400772

Postby dealtn » April 1st, 2021, 10:11 am

Mike4 wrote:
dealtn wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
There are still more than enough unvaccinated people for a third wave to rampage through.


It depends on what is being counted I suppose.

There are plenty unvaccinated to have another wave of cases. The fact there are relatively few unvaccinated in the most vulnerable groups suggest the extent of a wave of deaths would be more muted (but not non-existent).



Yes falling back on semantics is often useful. To be honest I'm not entirely sure what I mean by a third wave, or what you mean by "muted".

I keep hearing well qualified people in the media telling us "It isn't over for any of us until its over for all of us". Do you disagree with this and think a third wave of say, mainly asymptomatic infection is inconsequential and can safely be ignored? I can't decide on this point and wonder if the experts are just trotting out a meaningless cliché.



I don't listen much to the media, nor note that many I would describe as "well qualified", so I doubt I am a person that can add much here. Nor do I think infection would be mainly asymptomatic or inconsequential.

I would think with the majority of the currently unvaccinated being in the least likely to die if infected categories, then the degree of deaths, or worst possible outcomes, would be lower than in previous waves (however they are defined). I suspect therefore that for the majority there will come a point, perhaps relatively soon, and before any future wave arrives, that this will come to be seen as being over (as a pandemic to worry about and have lockdowns etc.), even if it won't be over in terms of cases, hospitalisations, and deaths in an absolute sense.

At the point deaths are seen as being under control, and lower than other causes of deaths we have accepted over many years, regardless of the exponential potential of them increasing, that acceptance will translate into many, possibly even the majority, considering it (at least domestically) to no longer be a significant cause of alarm to society as a whole.

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Re: Third wave

#400803

Postby servodude » April 1st, 2021, 11:21 am

dealtn wrote:At the point deaths are seen as being under control, and lower than other causes of deaths we have accepted over many years, regardless of the exponential potential of them increasing, that acceptance will translate into many, possibly even the majority, considering it (at least domestically) to no longer be a significant cause of alarm to society as a whole.


You mean the potential of them exponentially increasing? ("exponential potential" makes me think of something else)

I think you're probably right
- perhaps there's a market for chess boards and rice to help with that?

-sd

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Re: Third wave

#400811

Postby GeoffF100 » April 1st, 2021, 11:41 am

Mike4 wrote:I keep hearing well qualified people in the media telling us "It isn't over for any of us until its over for all of us". Do you disagree with this and think a third wave of say, mainly asymptomatic infection is inconsequential and can safely be ignored? I can't decide on this point and wonder if the experts are just trotting out a meaningless cliché.

I listened to the report on France in the 10 pm news on Radio 4 last night. 70% were against another lockdown until the hospitals became overloaded. I have also heard reports that there is no support for a lockdown in Germany. The Brits appear to be more compliant relative to France and Germany. The opposition parties have not offered any opposition to lockdown. People here seem to be happy to take furlough money, but judging from my observation of their behaviour, they are not interested in social distancing. They are mostly happy not to get tested when they become infected to avoid being told to self isolate. Even if they do get a test and test positive, a large proportion of them do not self isolate. There has not been a consistent plan on either side of the channel. The politicians appear to have been driven day to day by their perception of public opinion.
Last edited by GeoffF100 on April 1st, 2021, 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Third wave

#400812

Postby Mike4 » April 1st, 2021, 11:42 am

servodude wrote:
dealtn wrote:At the point deaths are seen as being under control, and lower than other causes of deaths we have accepted over many years, regardless of the exponential potential of them increasing, that acceptance will translate into many, possibly even the majority, considering it (at least domestically) to no longer be a significant cause of alarm to society as a whole.


You mean the potential of them exponentially increasing? ("exponential potential" makes me think of something else)

I think you're probably right
- perhaps there's a market for chess boards and rice to help with that?

-sd



I think that works with grains of sand, too....

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Re: Third wave

#400815

Postby servodude » April 1st, 2021, 11:55 am

Mike4 wrote:
servodude wrote:
dealtn wrote:At the point deaths are seen as being under control, and lower than other causes of deaths we have accepted over many years, regardless of the exponential potential of them increasing, that acceptance will translate into many, possibly even the majority, considering it (at least domestically) to no longer be a significant cause of alarm to society as a whole.


You mean the potential of them exponentially increasing? ("exponential potential" makes me think of something else)

I think you're probably right
- perhaps there's a market for chess boards and rice to help with that?

-sd



I think that works with grains of sand, too....


Needs tweezers and a magnifying glass though....

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Re: Third wave

#400820

Postby Julian » April 1st, 2021, 12:02 pm

Mike4 wrote:
servodude wrote:
dealtn wrote:At the point deaths are seen as being under control, and lower than other causes of deaths we have accepted over many years, regardless of the exponential potential of them increasing, that acceptance will translate into many, possibly even the majority, considering it (at least domestically) to no longer be a significant cause of alarm to society as a whole.


You mean the potential of them exponentially increasing? ("exponential potential" makes me think of something else)

I think you're probably right
- perhaps there's a market for chess boards and rice to help with that?

-sd



I think that works with grains of sand, too....

I think dealtn is right on the "regardless of the exponential potential of them increasing" comment and that is what I see as one of the biggest issues with more widespread public buy-in to the various restrictions pretty much all the way through the pandemic. The public buy-in has in general been very good but all the way through there has been a percentage of people trotting out the "more people die every year in car crashes" when the numbers were very low or "it's just like the flu" as the numbers got larger. I really do suspect that a significant percentage of the population simply don't really truly understand the properties of exponential growth. I remember as a computer guy working in the industry during the 32 to 64 bit transition just how many people fell into the trap of thinking that 64 bit was somehow twice as "powerful" (for want of a better word) as 32 bit in terms of addressing capability for instance. That chess board and sand/rice thing is an extremely powerful way to drive home the properties of exponential growth.

- Julian

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Re: Third wave

#400824

Postby Julian » April 1st, 2021, 12:09 pm

servodude wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
servodude wrote:
You mean the potential of them exponentially increasing? ("exponential potential" makes me think of something else)

I think you're probably right
- perhaps there's a market for chess boards and rice to help with that?

-sd



I think that works with grains of sand, too....


Needs tweezers and a magnifying glass though....

True but once you've populated the 64th square on the board whether it's rice or sand probably doesn't make much difference, you're not going to be able to get anywhere close to the chess board due to the volume of sand covering it and the surrounding area. It would be quite a fun calculation to take the volume properties of some sand, maybe builders' sand, and work out just how many cubic metres of sand would be on that final square of the chess board. Sadly the Easter Bank holiday has blind-sided me today and it only dawned on me just now that today is the last trading day of the tax year so I'm off to spend the rest of the day planning and executing my trades to use up this years CGT allowance. Talk about last minute! Idiot (me that is).

- Julian

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Re: Third wave

#400826

Postby redsturgeon » April 1st, 2021, 12:20 pm

Interestingly along the same vein a programme on R4 posed the question of what volume would all of the SARS CoV-2 in the world take up.

A swimming pool?

St Pauls Cathedral?

The answer was half a coke can.

John

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Re: Third wave

#400837

Postby servodude » April 1st, 2021, 1:05 pm

Julian wrote:
servodude wrote:
Mike4 wrote:

I think that works with grains of sand, too....


Needs tweezers and a magnifying glass though....

True but once you've populated the 64th square on the board whether it's rice or sand probably doesn't make much difference, you're not going to be able to get anywhere close to the chess board due to the volume of sand covering it and the surrounding area. It would be quite a fun calculation to take the volume properties of some sand, maybe builders' sand, and work out just how many cubic metres of sand would be on that final square of the chess board. Sadly the Easter Bank holiday has blind-sided me today and it only dawned on me just now that today is the last trading day of the tax year so I'm off to spend the rest of the day planning and executing my trades to use up this years CGT allowance. Talk about last minute! Idiot (me that is).

- Julian


I'd hope they'd get the point by the 5th or 6th square ;)

But anyway at 0.0044g per grain of sand about 81MegaTonnes on the 64th square
EDIT: just realized that as COVID infections were doubling in under a week at the start of the pandemic without restrictions, it would be about a year to a chessboard
-sd

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Re: Third wave

#400841

Postby servodude » April 1st, 2021, 1:18 pm

redsturgeon wrote:Interestingly along the same vein a programme on R4 posed the question of what volume would all of the SARS CoV-2 in the world take up.

A swimming pool?

St Pauls Cathedral?

The answer was half a coke can.

John


Ooh. That sounds like an interesting thought experiment?
At a given instant?
If a virus molecule is 30k bases....
...have it for two weeks or so
...... I'm going to need more fingers

-sd

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Re: Third wave

#400853

Postby Lootman » April 1st, 2021, 1:54 pm

GeoffF100 wrote:There has not been a consistent plan on either side of the channel. The politicians appear to have been driven day to day by their perception of public opinion.

Well, a lot of people think that politicians should act according to public opinion, since it is public opinion that elects them!

And it is hard to come up with a consistent plan when the problem (the virus) is itself inconsistent. All we can do is respond to developments, in a manner consistent with the will of the people. And at the moment I'd say the people want the planned easing to continue as the vaccinated population increases. There is no public appetite to be locked down all summer even if the British people so far have been surprisingly compliant and docile.

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Re: Third wave

#400889

Postby GeoffF100 » April 1st, 2021, 4:10 pm

Lootman wrote:
GeoffF100 wrote:There has not been a consistent plan on either side of the channel. The politicians appear to have been driven day to day by their perception of public opinion.

Well, a lot of people think that politicians should act according to public opinion, since it is public opinion that elects them!

And it is hard to come up with a consistent plan when the problem (the virus) is itself inconsistent. All we can do is respond to developments, in a manner consistent with the will of the people. And at the moment I'd say the people want the planned easing to continue as the vaccinated population increases. There is no public appetite to be locked down all summer even if the British people so far have been surprisingly compliant and docile.

If following public opinion leads to disaster, the electorate will not blame themselves. They will blame the government.

The virus has been consistent. New strains have appeared and are more easily transmitted and more deadly, but that should not be a surprise. The government's behaviour has been consistent too. Lockdown when the NHS is getting overloaded. Release the lockdown when the NHS starts to cope again..

We are fortunate that effective vaccines have been found, and that we appear to have sufficient supply. The US is in that position too. If there were no effective vaccine, would the public have wanted the lockdown to continue for another year in the hope that an effective vaccine would be found?

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Re: Third wave

#400893

Postby Julian » April 1st, 2021, 4:17 pm

servodude wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:Interestingly along the same vein a programme on R4 posed the question of what volume would all of the SARS CoV-2 in the world take up.

A swimming pool?

St Pauls Cathedral?

The answer was half a coke can.

John


Ooh. That sounds like an interesting thought experiment?
At a given instant?
If a virus molecule is 30k bases....
...have it for two weeks or so
...... I'm going to need more fingers

-sd

I don't have a link I'm afraid but I read something about that. Maybe 2 or 3 months ago (I forget) an academic somewhere had done the calculation (just for fun) based on SARS-CoV-2 diameter and I assume some reasonable estimates of number of discrete virus instances in the world based on number of people thought to be infected world wide and average viral load per person infected. I have no idea if his (I think it was a he) assumptions and calculation was correct but the rather surprising result was that this whole world wide pandemic is being caused by, at the time he did the calculation, about a 330ml soda can's worth of virus!

- Julian


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