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AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
GrahamPlatt
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Re: AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

#401293

Postby GrahamPlatt » April 3rd, 2021, 5:23 am

9873210 wrote:You need to read it. It says coincidental cannot be ruled out.

My bad. I should have said “associated with” and not “from”.

Bouleversee
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Re: AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

#401312

Postby Bouleversee » April 3rd, 2021, 9:05 am

Bouleversee wrote:
GrahamPlatt wrote:
9873210 wrote:You need to read it. It says coincidental cannot be ruled out.

My bad. I should have said “associated with” and not “from”.

The sentence doesn''t really mske sense with that change.

I've asked for this post of mine to be removed as i misunderstood which sentence GP's post related to.

Dod101
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Re: AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

#402506

Postby Dod101 » April 8th, 2021, 9:19 am

Thanks Snorvey. I do not think there is much that is new in the item but it is helpful to get it all 'under one roof' so to speak. I bet Astra Zeneca are sorry they ever got involved and of course the whole thing is well set up for international controversy. And it is not even their vaccine.

Anyhow I am having my second Oxford AstraZeneca jab on Saturday.

Dod

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Re: AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

#402521

Postby Arborbridge » April 8th, 2021, 9:42 am

Snorvey wrote:The World Needs the Not-for-Profit AstraZeneca Vaccine, Minus the AstraZeneca Drama

Many people inside Astra are deeply distressed by the extent of the criticism they’ve taken while trying to lead the way to a nonprofit vaccine that could help end the pandemic. As one executive puts it when asked if they’d do it again: “Not in a million years. All we’ve had is grief.”

The story of the Astra-Oxford vaccine. MIght be behind a paywall, but Bloomberg do give a number of free articles away per month

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... ith-errors


This has been really tough on AZN, who seem to have behaved in an honourable way - the sort of direction which should have won them plaudits and be held up as a good example to all the other countries. Yet, we have the opposite, which will ensure that hard line bean counters will prevail in future.

AZN share price in a solid downtrend for eleven months, and who knows whether it might even ruin the company eventually. So much for generosity.

Arb.

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Re: AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

#402544

Postby absolutezero » April 8th, 2021, 10:44 am

The lesson for AZN here is to
-charge the maximum possible fee for their next vaccine: ("it's cheap so it must be crap")
-do a Novavax by delaying delivery to (and therefore snide comments from) the EU for as long as possible: (Novavax still haven't submitted data to the EMA for regulatory purposes)

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Re: AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

#402565

Postby zico » April 8th, 2021, 11:23 am

I feel sorry for AstraZeneca but their communications have been terrible. Their first vaccine trial results showed 62% efficacy, but was widely reported at 90%, because they'd "worked out" that a half-dose followed by a full-dose was much more effective. Rang immediate alarm bells with me - why would that be more effective, and why would they have decided to adopt this in their trials? It then turned out later it was all a big mistake, and maybe it was the longer duration between half-dose and full-dose that gave the 90% figure. It sounded very much like the company picking the best figure from amongst several plausible figures and being somewhat economical with the truth.

AZ's main problem has been that it seems to be "somewhat" less effective than other vaccines. The word "somewhat" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here, because it's still pretty unclear to me just what the effectiveness is. Lower effectiveness and less clarity is a pretty bad combination, so unsurprisingly, anyone with a choice of vaccines is choosing to have a different vaccine.

On the not-for-profit issue, I feel strongly that a company providing something of such benefit to mankind (which is truly "wealth creation" in its proper sense) should actually be guaranteed a pretty healthy profit by governments.

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Re: AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

#402589

Postby dealtn » April 8th, 2021, 12:20 pm

zico wrote:AZ's main problem has been that it seems to be "somewhat" less effective than other vaccines. The word "somewhat" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here, because it's still pretty unclear to me just what the effectiveness is. Lower effectiveness and less clarity is a pretty bad combination, so unsurprisingly, anyone with a choice of vaccines is choosing to have a different vaccine.



Have you read the Phase ii/iii trial data for the vaccine alternatives? I suspect, as you allude the "pretty unclear" is because few are sufficiently motivated to do so, and it therefore falls on the companies to "communicate" to the respective audiences. I would imagine the audience of the regulator(s) have been communicated with effectively in all cases, but that isn't sufficient.

It isn't hard to imagine a pharmaceutical company with a vaccination business, and experience, will do a better job than one not being in this business before. I imagine the profit motive helps also. Altruistic though AZN's not for profit offering here is, I suspect that may be hindrance at the margin too in practice.

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Re: AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

#402664

Postby Bouleversee » April 8th, 2021, 5:02 pm

I've just read that the Oxford biotechnology start-up behind the AstraZeneca vaccine is planning to float shortly on the New York Stock Exchange, for goodness sake! Sarah Gilbert and her colleague are expected to make £20million each. I didn't see any mention of AZN having a stake in the business or SUPP for that matter, both of which would have given me a copper or two perhaps.

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Re: AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

#402684

Postby 9873210 » April 8th, 2021, 5:55 pm

Somebody had to be the sacrificial lamb for the precautionary principle.

AstraZeneca has performed a really useful function. By taking the heat they've enabled other vaccines to be used on hundreds of millions. Time to hand out some knighthoods.

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Re: AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

#402747

Postby dealtn » April 8th, 2021, 9:20 pm

Bouleversee wrote:I've just read that the Oxford biotechnology start-up behind the AstraZeneca vaccine is planning to float shortly on the New York Stock Exchange, for goodness sake! Sarah Gilbert and her colleague are expected to make £20million each. I didn't see any mention of AZN having a stake in the business or SUPP for that matter, both of which would have given me a copper or two perhaps.


What is wrong with this to elicit your "for goodness sake!"?

GrahamPlatt
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Re: AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

#403574

Postby GrahamPlatt » April 12th, 2021, 11:02 am

Bouleversee wrote:
GrahamPlatt wrote:There is a natural cohort of people with a thrombogenic tendency. It tends to be expressed in young women on taking the oral contraceptive pill, either in the form of pulmonary embolism or stroke. A rare, but well documented “side effect” of the OCP. But we don’t test these young ladies beforehand.


Why not? I should have thought it would make sense to test them before and at an appropriate interval after starting on OCP and the same as regards the vaccine with people who were known to have the genetic prothrombin factor.

I wonder how many of those women who came to grief after the vaccination were on OCP or had a prothrombin factor. It hasn't even been discussed so far as I am aware.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct2djs

What the statistician Ellenberg fails to mention is that using the OCP is also much safer than pregnancy itself.

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Re: AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

#403597

Postby Arborbridge » April 12th, 2021, 11:34 am

Bouleversee wrote:I've just read that the Oxford biotechnology start-up behind the AstraZeneca vaccine is planning to float shortly on the New York Stock Exchange, for goodness sake! Sarah Gilbert and her colleague are expected to make £20million each. I didn't see any mention of AZN having a stake in the business or SUPP for that matter, both of which would have given me a copper or two perhaps.


I frankly admit I don't know the internal details of this, but on the face of it, this would seem a fairly normal event in a capitalist society. There's always the "problem" of how much public money has enabled researchers of this sort to progress, but given that these people came up with the research and the systems to accomplish what they did, where is the difficulty for you? AZN, of course, were vital to large scale production, but they were the manufacturers, not (AKAIK) the originators of the idea.

It's the idea and development end which is being floated, by the sound of it, and they deserve a massive reward. The US has always been ahead of us in this way and just look at how their technology industries have advanced compared with ours. The "for Goodness sake" for me, would be how sad it is that the UK market is so far out of touch with technology that they need to launch in the US to get a decent amount of interest. How moribund are we!

As regards AZN, who you may think are losing out here, they had an ample chance to make a mint over this, but it looks as though they let it slip. Maybe they were too woke, and not awake.

Arb.

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Re: AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

#403608

Postby Julian » April 12th, 2021, 11:57 am

Arborbridge wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:I've just read that the Oxford biotechnology start-up behind the AstraZeneca vaccine is planning to float shortly on the New York Stock Exchange, for goodness sake! Sarah Gilbert and her colleague are expected to make £20million each. I didn't see any mention of AZN having a stake in the business or SUPP for that matter, both of which would have given me a copper or two perhaps.


I frankly admit I don't know the internal details of this, but on the face of it, this would seem a fairly normal event in a capitalist society. There's always the "problem" of how much public money has enabled researchers of this sort to progress, but given that these people came up with the research and the systems to accomplish what they did, where is the difficulty for you? AZN, of course, were vital to large scale production, but they were the manufacturers, not (AKAIK) the originators of the idea.

It's the idea and development end which is being floated, by the sound of it, and they deserve a massive reward. The US has always been ahead of us in this way and just look at how their technology industries have advanced compared with ours. The "for Goodness sake" for me, would be how sad it is that the UK market is so far out of touch with technology that they need to launch in the US to get a decent amount of interest. How moribund are we!

As regards AZN, who you may think are losing out here, they had an ample chance to make a mint over this, but it looks as though they let it slip. Maybe they were too woke, and not awake.

Arb.

All "as I understand it" but when talking about a lot of this vaccine stuff they (scientists, industry followers) talk about vaccine "platforms" where here developing and testing the use of that particular chimp ChadOx1 adenovirus as a viral vector delivery platform has been work underway for many years. The AZ-manufactured SARS-Cov-2 vaccine is, as far as I'm aware, the first marketed (in this case under emergency use authorisation) vaccine to demonstrate the use of the platform on a mass scale so I suppose the proof of the platform plus maybe the extra publicity (although admittedly by no means all good) around the AZ vaccine, not to mention it probably being a very benign environment for funding of anti-virus stuff and life sciences and medical innovation in general right now, quite possibly prompted the timing of this IPO.

As for the <had to go to the US for funding> bit. Quite! I agree. Very sad it was not possible or was considered sub-optimal to float in the UK.

On the AZ not-for-profit bit, as I understand it there was no choice since that was a requirement when the Oxford Vaccine Group was looking for an industrial partner. Admittedly had all big pharma simply said "no - show us the money" maybe Oxford would have had to compromise at least somewhat. In fact maybe what we see with AZ is a compromise. AZ are not providing the vaccine at cost forever, it is only at cost forever for developing countries, the rest of the world only gets the vaccine at cost for the duration of the pandemic with the official end I assume to be called by WHO since it was WHO that officially declared it a pandemic in the first place so presumably will also decide when to declare the official end to this particular pandemic.

- Julian

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Re: AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

#403613

Postby Bouleversee » April 12th, 2021, 12:16 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:I've just read that the Oxford biotechnology start-up behind the AstraZeneca vaccine is planning to float shortly on the New York Stock Exchange, for goodness sake! Sarah Gilbert and her colleague are expected to make £20million each. I didn't see any mention of AZN having a stake in the business or SUPP for that matter, both of which would have given me a copper or two perhaps.


I frankly admit I don't know the internal details of this, but on the face of it, this would seem a fairly normal event in a capitalist society. There's always the "problem" of how much public money has enabled researchers of this sort to progress, but given that these people came up with the research and the systems to accomplish what they did, where is the difficulty for you? AZN, of course, were vital to large scale production, but they were the manufacturers, not (AKAIK) the originators of the idea.

It's the idea and development end which is being floated, by the sound of it, and they deserve a massive reward. The US has always been ahead of us in this way and just look at how their technology industries have advanced compared with ours. The "for Goodness sake" for me, would be how sad it is that the UK market is so far out of touch with technology that they need to launch in the US to get a decent amount of interest. How moribund are we!

As regards AZN, who you may think are losing out here, they had an ample chance to make a mint over this, but it looks as though they let it slip. Maybe they were too woke, and not awake.

Arb.


I agree entirely, ARB, and I daresay they will do something useful with the money. I am sure that making a mint was not their objective. My comment related to the Stock Exchange on which it was to be floated which caused adverse comment but don't ask me to remember by whom. It is indeed depressing if it was considered to be necessary in order to get the most interest/best price but I am not entirely convinced. Having read that AZN have a large investment in another BIO company which is about to float, I still cherish the hope that they might have invested in the Oxford one as well. What I also find depressing is that so many of the successful companies of this ilk get taken over by US and other foreign companies. AZN may be regretting not accepting a t/o offer themselves.

I read at the weekend that the new Johnson and Johnson vaccine had also had instances of that type of clotting, as have Pfizer and Moderna, I still can't understand why AZN is getting all the stick for this.

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Re: AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

#403644

Postby absolutezero » April 12th, 2021, 3:09 pm

Bouleversee wrote:I read at the weekend that the new Johnson and Johnson vaccine had also had instances of that type of clotting, as have Pfizer and Moderna, I still can't understand why AZN is getting all the stick for this.

Short answer: Politics.
Long answer: EU sour grapes wanting to make a British product look bad - purely out of spite.

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Re: AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

#403649

Postby Bouleversee » April 12th, 2021, 3:19 pm

But what about the British press and the British MRHA? Nobody seems to be sticking up for AZ.

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Re: AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

#403654

Postby absolutezero » April 12th, 2021, 3:26 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
absolutezero wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:I read at the weekend that the new Johnson and Johnson vaccine had also had instances of that type of clotting, as have Pfizer and Moderna, I still can't understand why AZN is getting all the stick for this.

Short answer: Politics.
Long answer: EU sour grapes wanting to make a British product look bad - purely out of spite.

Yet the "Astra" bit of "AZ" is Swedish. Last time I looked, that was in the EU. Only the "Zeneca" bit is originally British. It was the Pharmaceutical Division of ICI before it was floated off as a separate company.

RVF

They don't seem to call it the Malmo Astra Zeneca vaccine though...

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Re: AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

#403680

Postby Arborbridge » April 12th, 2021, 5:31 pm

absolutezero wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:I read at the weekend that the new Johnson and Johnson vaccine had also had instances of that type of clotting, as have Pfizer and Moderna, I still can't understand why AZN is getting all the stick for this.

Short answer: Politics.
Long answer: EU sour grapes wanting to make a British product look bad - purely out of spite.


I don't believe spite comes into it: it was political and commercial logic, and no spite necessary.
The europeans, as I've said previously, lean much more towards the precautionary principle, whereas our governments are more inclined to let things ride until overwhelming data showing harm accumulates. When there's a "silent spring" they then act.
The European scepticism was proved right and now our government has made a partial u-turn in admitting that perhaps there is some cause for concern. Thus, reassurance that we have enough of the other vaccine for the young cohorts.

The other possible motive wasn't from the EU either, but was commercial. The rival companies had every interest in fuelling doubts and bigging up their own product.

For those in a perma-bubble of anti European fervour, the spite reasoning is convenient, but it is far from necessary.

Arb.

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Re: AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

#403693

Postby zico » April 12th, 2021, 6:49 pm

absolutezero wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:I read at the weekend that the new Johnson and Johnson vaccine had also had instances of that type of clotting, as have Pfizer and Moderna, I still can't understand why AZN is getting all the stick for this.

Short answer: Politics.
Long answer: EU sour grapes wanting to make a British product look bad - purely out of spite.


If you think EU sour grapes is the reason, than how do you explain last week? On the same day the UK and European health authorities looked at very similar data but the UK gave a more cautious recommendation, namely offering under-30s an alternative vaccine.
British fifth columnists wanting to undermine their country?

The more boring reason appears to be that AZ has been first to be widely used, so was first vaccine where problems were detected. all the vaccines aim to produce a response from the immune system, and very very very rarely, the immune system goes a bit overboard, which is bad for the vaccineee (if there's such a word).

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Re: AstraZeneca (Latest Trials)

#403704

Postby absolutezero » April 12th, 2021, 7:23 pm

zico wrote:
absolutezero wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:I read at the weekend that the new Johnson and Johnson vaccine had also had instances of that type of clotting, as have Pfizer and Moderna, I still can't understand why AZN is getting all the stick for this.

Short answer: Politics.
Long answer: EU sour grapes wanting to make a British product look bad - purely out of spite.


If you think EU sour grapes is the reason, than how do you explain last week? On the same day the UK and European health authorities looked at very similar data but the UK gave a more cautious recommendation, namely offering under-30s an alternative vaccine.
British fifth columnists wanting to undermine their country?

The more boring reason appears to be that AZ has been first to be widely used, so was first vaccine where problems were detected. all the vaccines aim to produce a response from the immune system, and very very very rarely, the immune system goes a bit overboard, which is bad for the vaccineee (if there's such a word).

I await a similar level of fuss about Pfizer.JnJ etc.
There is a bit fuss from the EU about this. But nowhere near as much.
I have yet to hear Merkel or Macron publicly slate the other jabs but they were very quick to do that with AZN.


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