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Thoughts on holidays?

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool

Should people be allowed to go on foreign holidays this year?

No. Close the borders and no holiday travel
41
53%
Allow holiday travel with enforced hotel quarantine on return
7
9%
Let people travel - mum's been vaccinated anyway.
20
26%
Anything else
9
12%
 
Total votes: 77

stevensfo
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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398402

Postby stevensfo » March 23rd, 2021, 7:48 pm

DrFfybes wrote:
stevensfo wrote:Re. Traveling, that's all sorted. A Covid test before you travel, and a Covid test before you come home. Results in 30 minutes.


Now there's an idea - sample everyone who comes back, and if they are found to be carrying a variant new to the UK then they face 1 year in prison and a £10k fine for each person who dies after being infected with the new variant. Seems only fair, after all their actions can be directly linked to the deaths so they should take responsibility for the consequences.

Paul [edited for spelling]


But that's not what I said, is it? I said to be tested before leaving and then, before returning.

But I like your train of thought.

Maybe you're right. Every GP who sends their 'clients' a bowel cancer testing kit but, on a positive result, doesn't get their patient into immediate treatment rather than a six month wait to be seen by a specialist, should potentially face 1 year in prison, hmm?

Yes, I think you're onto something there! Thank goodness we're making progress!

Steve

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398403

Postby Lootman » March 23rd, 2021, 7:49 pm

Clitheroekid wrote:If you've had both doses of the vaccine then you should be allowed to travel freely. However, if you're travelling to a `red list' country it would be reasonable to insist that you have a rapid result test on re-entry.

I don't know how quick a reliable test is now, but I'm assuming it could be processed within 24 hours, so you might have to spend a night in a quarantine hotel, which I'm sure most people would accept as being a reasonable price to pay.

By the time there's any propsect of overseas travel (late May, at the earliest) the large majority of the UK population will have been vaccinated, so the risk of infecting anyone when returning home will be minimal. Likewise, if you're travelling to a high risk area there will probably be some form of local lockdown, which will minimise your exposure to local people.

There will always be some risk of catching a new variant and bringing it back, but it's a risk that is now there permanently, and it has to be balanced against the desirability of allowing people to travel. The risk is unlikely to be significantly lower in a year's time or five years' time, so all that closing the borders would achieve is to postpone the risk. In fact, there may even be an argument that if there are new variants it may be better to import them in the relatively near future, when immunity will be at its highest, than to do so in a year's time.

Like AiY I've got flights for late August, but I'm frankly sick of lockdown life in the UK, and I fully intend to go abroad as soon as it's possible to do so.

Yep, pretty much that. It has been a year. The most vulnerable have already died and most of the rest of the quasi-vulnerable are or will soon be vaccinated. Enough already. The people need a release or this country will become ungovernable. In fact that hot mess in Bristol the other night was a direct product of the collective frustration the people feel.

Rapid testing and vaccination certificates are the solution. I am flying out in late May come hell or high water. The only issue is whether I come back if this government does not grow a spine.

swill453
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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398408

Postby swill453 » March 23rd, 2021, 7:59 pm

Clitheroekid wrote:I don't know how quick a reliable test is now, but I'm assuming it could be processed within 24 hours, so you might have to spend a night in a quarantine hotel, which I'm sure most people would accept as being a reasonable price to pay.

You always seem to miss the point that if you're infected, this doesn't show up in a test until some days later. So an immediate test at the border isn't particularly useful.

Where do you think the idea of 14 or 10 days quarantine came from?

Scott.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398413

Postby stevensfo » March 23rd, 2021, 8:08 pm

swill453 wrote:
Clitheroekid wrote:I don't know how quick a reliable test is now, but I'm assuming it could be processed within 24 hours, so you might have to spend a night in a quarantine hotel, which I'm sure most people would accept as being a reasonable price to pay.

You always seem to miss the point that if you're infected, this doesn't show up in a test until some days later. So an immediate test at the border isn't particularly useful.

Where do you think the idea of 14 or 10 days quarantine came from?

Scott.


No. That changed a long time ago. The new Lateral tests involve swabbing the nasal cavity, but rely on fast viral protein tests, approx 30 mins max, rather than the slightly longer PCR tests.

However, for the sake of human error, saving people's lives and common sense, I agree that we should never let down our guard, and should continue the basic rules of behaviour until we're sure.

Steve

swill453
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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398415

Postby swill453 » March 23rd, 2021, 8:14 pm

stevensfo wrote:
swill453 wrote:You always seem to miss the point that if you're infected, this doesn't show up in a test until some days later. So an immediate test at the border isn't particularly useful.

Where do you think the idea of 14 or 10 days quarantine came from?

No. That changed a long time ago. The new Lateral tests involve swabbing the nasal cavity, but rely on fast viral protein tests, approx 30 mins max, rather than the slightly longer PCR tests.

What? That doesn't contradict what I said. The test might give quick results, but still won't detect someone newly infected.

Scott.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398417

Postby Lootman » March 23rd, 2021, 8:18 pm

swill453 wrote:
stevensfo wrote:
swill453 wrote:You always seem to miss the point that if you're infected, this doesn't show up in a test until some days later. So an immediate test at the border isn't particularly useful.

Where do you think the idea of 14 or 10 days quarantine came from?

No. That changed a long time ago. The new Lateral tests involve swabbing the nasal cavity, but rely on fast viral protein tests, approx 30 mins max, rather than the slightly longer PCR tests.

What? That doesn't contradict what I said. The test might give quick results, but still won't detect someone newly infected.

But nothing will detect that. I might have breathed in a lungful of virus 5 seconds ago and am now about to breathe all over you.

So what would you like to do to prevent that, other than close down society until you feel happier?

stevensfo
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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398418

Postby stevensfo » March 23rd, 2021, 8:24 pm

Lootman wrote:
swill453 wrote:
stevensfo wrote:No. That changed a long time ago. The new Lateral tests involve swabbing the nasal cavity, but rely on fast viral protein tests, approx 30 mins max, rather than the slightly longer PCR tests.

What? That doesn't contradict what I said. The test might give quick results, but still won't detect someone newly infected.

But nothing will detect that. I might have breathed in a lungful of virus 5 seconds ago and am about to breathe all over you.

So what would you like to do to prevent that, other than close down society until you feel happier?


In true tabloid style, everyone quotes everyone out of context. ;)

I finished:
However, for the sake of human error, saving people's lives and common sense, I agree that we should never let down our guard, and should continue the basic rules of behaviour until we're sure.


So no matter what, social distancing, masks, wash hands 10x more the usual etc etc.

Steve

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398419

Postby swill453 » March 23rd, 2021, 8:28 pm

Lootman wrote:
swill453 wrote:What? That doesn't contradict what I said. The test might give quick results, but still won't detect someone newly infected.

But nothing will detect that. I might have breathed in a lungful of virus 5 seconds ago and am now about to breathe all over you.

So what would you like to do to prevent that, other than close down society until you feel happier?

I've never heard of that even being possible, but it's not my point anyway. I'm talking about a person being infected, but undetectable for a number of days. Hence quarantine.

Virology 101 anyone?

Scott.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398420

Postby Lootman » March 23rd, 2021, 8:33 pm

swill453 wrote:
Lootman wrote:
swill453 wrote:What? That doesn't contradict what I said. The test might give quick results, but still won't detect someone newly infected.

But nothing will detect that. I might have breathed in a lungful of virus 5 seconds ago and am now about to breathe all over you.

So what would you like to do to prevent that, other than close down society until you feel happier?

I've never heard of that even being possible, but it's not my point anyway. I'm talking about a person being infected, but undetectable for a number of days. Hence quarantine.

But the point we are all making to you is that quarantine is no long effective, at least when considering the massive cost and inconvenience compared with the marginal benefit. With vaccinations, rapid tests and a 90% drop in cases, you are fighting yesterday's battles.

swill453
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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398422

Postby swill453 » March 23rd, 2021, 8:38 pm

Lootman wrote:But the point we are all making to you is that quarantine is no long effective, at least when considering the massive cost and inconvenience compared with the marginal benefit. With vaccinations, rapid tests and a 90% drop in cases, you are fighting yesterday's battles.

I'm only pointing out the fallacy that a rapid test at the border is all that's needed. Most trips are only a few days, so that test isn't going to detect a high proportion of infections.

Scott.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398425

Postby Mike4 » March 23rd, 2021, 8:45 pm

Clitheroekid wrote:If you've had both doses of the vaccine then you should be allowed to travel freely.


Why?

Are you labouring under the misunderstanding that vaccinated people never get infected, perhaps?



(Edit to fix the HTML.)

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398428

Postby 1nvest » March 23rd, 2021, 8:48 pm

stevensfo wrote:So no matter what, social distancing, masks, wash hands 10x more the usual etc etc.

Why. There's been far nastier bugs out there forever that adversely affect far more than does Covid. Why has the entire population been imprisoned for something that kills relatively few contracting it, but that for a large majority they might not even be aware of even having had it. Driving cars will kill a small proportion of the population, ban all driving of cars?

The NHS has not been overwhelmed. Much of the NHS has been very idle, GP's for instance. Sites such as the Nightingale were prepared and never even used other than by a very very small number.

stevensfo
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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398429

Postby stevensfo » March 23rd, 2021, 8:49 pm

swill453 wrote:
Lootman wrote:But the point we are all making to you is that quarantine is no long effective, at least when considering the massive cost and inconvenience compared with the marginal benefit. With vaccinations, rapid tests and a 90% drop in cases, you are fighting yesterday's battles.

I'm only pointing out the fallacy that a rapid test at the border is all that's needed. Most trips are only a few days, so that test isn't going to detect a high proportion of infections.

Scott.


But nobody is saying that it 'is all that's needed.' The test can detect viral proteins in your nasal cavity. It's very fast. But after that, we all need to use our intelligence and take the normal precautions. You also need a test 72 hours before returning, so I think that it will help us slowly to return to a normal life.

Steve

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398431

Postby 1nvest » March 23rd, 2021, 8:51 pm

Mike4 wrote:Are you labouring under the misunderstanding that vaccinated people never get infected, perhaps?

The vaccine doesn't prevent contraction, rather it just reduces a very small risk of death for most down to a minuscule risk. For the very large majority they might not even be aware of having contracted Covid, vaccinated or not.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398434

Postby 1nvest » March 23rd, 2021, 8:58 pm

With a global population of 7 billion plus, 90 million might naturally die each year. Global deaths attributed to Covid after a year is less than 3 million.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398437

Postby Clitheroekid » March 23rd, 2021, 9:04 pm

Mike4 wrote:
Clitheroekid wrote:If you've had both doses of the vaccine then you should be allowed to travel freely.


Why?

Are you labouring under the misunderstanding that vaccinated people never get infected, perhaps?

No, I realise that vaccinated people can still become infected. But the chances of doing so - or at least becoming infected so as to cause severe illness or death - seem to be minimal.

It also seems very unlikely that if you were infected you would spread it to others, or, if you did, that they would suffer any serious illness either.

By the time I was talking about - in a couple of months' time - then in the absence of any new disaster the risks will not be high enough to justify such severe travel restrictions.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398439

Postby doolally » March 23rd, 2021, 9:05 pm

1nvest wrote:[
The NHS has not been overwhelmed. Much of the NHS has been very idle, GP's for instance. Sites such as the Nightingale were prepared and never even used other than by a very very small number.

Do you think the NHS would not have been overwhelmed if there was no lockdown, no use of masks, no vaccination, etc

doolally

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398454

Postby 1nvest » March 23rd, 2021, 9:30 pm

doolally wrote:
1nvest wrote:[
The NHS has not been overwhelmed. Much of the NHS has been very idle, GP's for instance. Sites such as the Nightingale were prepared and never even used other than by a very very small number.

Do you think the NHS would not have been overwhelmed if there was no lockdown, no use of masks, no vaccination, etc

doolally

There has never been a lockdown. Millions continued to fly in/out of the UK. Roads just less congested etc. Only recently have vaccines come online, much of the year was without such. Much of stress on the NHS is relative only to a very small number, those actually caring for Covid patients, much of the rest of that massive resource is having a break/idle, such as GP's etc. ... underutilised.

With actual government, rather than just managing crises of their own making, real lockdown could have been instated, very restricted flow into the country, infrastructure for groceries to be ordered from and delivered to your home etc. as occurred in other non-banana republics.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398456

Postby servodude » March 23rd, 2021, 9:31 pm

doolally wrote:
1nvest wrote:[
The NHS has not been overwhelmed. Much of the NHS has been very idle, GP's for instance. Sites such as the Nightingale were prepared and never even used other than by a very very small number.

Do you think the NHS would not have been overwhelmed if there was no lockdown, no use of masks, no vaccination, etc

doolally


Not sure who's doolally here ;)

- sd

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398556

Postby DrFfybes » March 24th, 2021, 9:16 am

Just to add to this gently drifting container ship, my viewpoint is not trying to save lives. People die all the time, there are no exceptions, you never save a life, you simply postpone a death.

However if we have another lockdown due to an imported variant, then that will affect the quality of millions of lives. People will lose jobs, income, education, access to healthcare, etc as they have in previous lockdowns.

Someone mentioned the Bristol riots being a symptom of frustration, that frustration comes from being cooped up and lack of social contact, not from missing a week in Benidorm.

I would love to go away this year, but am quite willing to wait until our major destinations reach a similar case rate to ours and also get their vaccination rates up, which will probably be early next year.

[EDIT to add - 15 months or so ago this whole thing started in the UK with a few people bringing a new virus back from abroad - it amazes me that some people now seem to think that doing it again is a good idea]

Paul


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