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Thoughts on holidays?

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool

Should people be allowed to go on foreign holidays this year?

No. Close the borders and no holiday travel
41
53%
Allow holiday travel with enforced hotel quarantine on return
7
9%
Let people travel - mum's been vaccinated anyway.
20
26%
Anything else
9
12%
 
Total votes: 77

bluedonkey
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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398569

Postby bluedonkey » March 24th, 2021, 9:37 am

Back to the more mundane aspects - we've postponed our Eurostar trip from June to September.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398589

Postby 88V8 » March 24th, 2021, 10:35 am

Hotel quarantine on return. So, two weeks quarantine... that would be the holiday..........

V8

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398616

Postby skewwy » March 24th, 2021, 11:59 am

1nvest wrote:
1nvest wrote:The NHS has not been overwhelmed.


There has never been a lockdown. ...

...Much of stress on the NHS is relative only to a very small number, those actually caring for Covid patients, much of the rest of that massive resource is having a break/idle, such as GP's etc. ... underutilised.
..


wow

Nothing has pained me more in this pandemic than this argument that some come up with..... NHS not overwhelmed .. and since we didn't really have a lockdown anyway then they would never have been overwhelmed....

All you have to do is look at the NHS daily admissions and death curves just before and a few weeks after the two main lockdowns to see that this view is quite possibly the most ignorant view of the pandemic that I personally think it is possible to have. It literally could not be more wrong based on the number of dead bodies in morgues at the time of introducing each lockdown.

Back to the topic... if you exclude the risk of variants (which based on the South Africa one is not a theoretical risk, its real) then we will be out of this mess within a few months thanks to the vaccinations and almost back to normal.
But the risk of variants mean that we could literally be back to square one in a few months.
On that basis I am sure we can live without going away this year to keep that risk down to a minimum.

Lootman
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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398622

Postby Lootman » March 24th, 2021, 12:04 pm

Snorvey wrote:For the past year, an assumption — sometimes explicit, often tacit — has informed almost all our thinking about the pandemic: At some point, it will be over, and then we’ll go “back to normal.”

This premise is almost certainly wrong. SARS-CoV-2, protean and elusive as it is, may become our permanent enemy, like the flu but worse. And even if it peters out eventually, our lives and routines will by then have changed irreversibly. Going “back” won’t be an option; the only way is forward. But to what exactly?

Yes, I feel sure there will be some permanent, or at least long-term, changes. Mask wearing won't completely go away and it has always been common to see ordinary people wearing masks in various parts of Asia. People have become more conscious about things like washing hands and being too close to strangers. Nightclubs may never reopen as surely they are the ultimate super-spreader venue.

But what annoys me is commentators who claim that we need to make all kinds of political changes as a result. The reality is that they are just leveraging the pandemic to try and implement changes to society that they wanted before this all happened. And on that topic I will give Boris some credit, as he has not used the crisis and his emergency powers to do anything ideological. He may have made some errors but his focus has been pragmatic - to defeat the virus. Contrast that with what Corbyn would have done, which surely would have been to make all kinds of changes to taxes, labour laws, maybe even nationalisations, all under the cover of the virus "crisis".

But the real test is what will happen on the much-mooted May 17th reopening date for pubs, restaurants, hotels, resorts and holidays. I hope for a lot but expect a little. I have a trip planned for the week after. I wanted something booked as when we do reopen for holidays, the huge pent-up demand could lead to difficulties in booking flights and hotels, and high prices.

One final thought. Since the UK and the US are way ahead of everywhere else for vaccinations, could UK-US travel be allowed a special exemption from restrictions? Perhaps dependent on proof of vaccination?

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398624

Postby MaraMan » March 24th, 2021, 12:11 pm

Whitby - May, remain hopeful
Spain - moved yet again from June to September
West Country - July, remain hopeful
Cruise - Late October, will be a miracle.

MM

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398629

Postby 1nvest » March 24th, 2021, 12:32 pm

skewwy wrote:Back to the topic... if you exclude the risk of variants (which based on the South Africa one is not a theoretical risk, its real) then we will be out of this mess within a few months thanks to the vaccinations and almost back to normal.
But the risk of variants mean that we could literally be back to square one in a few months.
On that basis I am sure we can live without going away this year to keep that risk down to a minimum.

So you opine that the whole should continue to suffer in many cases very harshly in order to continue to reduce the risk for a very small percentage of the population. 65 million person years imprisonment for the sake of not even a single percent point of the population, many of which might have been closer to death anyway. I would suggest that lockdown has had negative consequences for a much larger number across the population. Elderly not having seen their grandchildren in what might be the last days/weeks/months of their lives; No holiday breaks just work and remain locked in a 'cell'.

65 million population, 80 year average lifetimes and more than 800,000 will tend to die each year. After a year of Covid the number is suggested as being around 125,000 i.e. 15% of those that died had Covid written on the death certificate. Many GP's don't even see patients anymore, just telephone consultations and referrals. Wouldn't be surprised if many death due to Covid certifications were just being remotely used in a number of cases by GP's certifying deaths.

I would suspect that they'll attempt to have us "back to square one" soon due to mutations. The Spanish flu with similar first wave death rates saw a far deadlier second wave with a 33%+ death rate and that in total spanned 4 years before 'herd immunity' occurred. Current lockdowns may have no influence on the final outcome, just the manner in how many lived the remainder of their lives imprisoned rather than living.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398635

Postby Julian » March 24th, 2021, 12:43 pm

88V8 wrote:Hotel quarantine on return. So, two weeks quarantine... that would be the holiday..........

V8

Well, some people do like to go on educational holidays to learn new stuff. You'd come back from such a quarantine holiday with detailed first hand knowledge of every item on Travelodge's room service menu and the in-room amenities and all your friends would no doubt be fascinated by your hundreds of "this was breakfast on day 5" and "this was the laundry collection van arriving on day 11" style of holiday snaps.

Being serious, if the UK government ever went down that route, for England presumably, I suspect it would be with the thought at the back of the politicians' mind that it would effectively be banning foreign holidays for a huge percentage of potential holidaymakers without explicitly being seen to do so. I suspect the primary flak that would be thrown back at such a move would be its elitist nature since I suspect that the wealthier you are the more easily you could cope with the obstacle thrown in your way. For the wealthy the added cost of the quarantine hotel becomes less of an issue and for singletons, and probably also couples not travelling with children, with a laptop and suitable 4G router and data plan the ability to "work from home" out of the quarantine hotel for the 10 days or 2 weeks after their return could mean no extra days off work need to be booked for people who aren't retired.

Actually, the above raises a question for me about the current quarantine arrangements for parents travelling with children. Are the quarantine hotels required to be able to offer family facilities i.e. adjacent hotel rooms with a connecting door? It would be hell to have a family with 2 young kids let alone > 2 young kids all in a single hotel room for 10 days (or however long our English quarantine period is when returning from red zone countries at the moment).

- Julian

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398648

Postby redsturgeon » March 24th, 2021, 1:56 pm

Julian wrote:
Actually, the above raises a question for me about the current quarantine arrangements for parents travelling with children. Are the quarantine hotels required to be able to offer family facilities i.e. adjacent hotel rooms with a connecting door? It would be hell to have a family with 2 young kids let alone > 2 young kids all in a single hotel room for 10 days (or however long our English quarantine period is when returning from red zone countries at the moment).

- Julian


Yes they do offer facilities for families with young children. Yesterday on my trip to the Radisson Blu at Heathrow the carpark somewhat ressembled a school play ground with the amount of children running around.

John

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398653

Postby mao44 » March 24th, 2021, 2:18 pm

We have booked the last two weeks in July for Zante. Hopefully the vast majority in Europe would have had the vaccine by then so hopefully restrictions will be lifted by then.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398666

Postby Lootman » March 24th, 2021, 3:52 pm

DrFfybes wrote:Someone mentioned the Bristol riots being a symptom of frustration, that frustration comes from being cooped up and lack of social contact, not from missing a week in Benidorm.

That was me and, yes, I think both can be a problem.

There is a tendency for people to go on these riots in the summer and then it all fizzles out when the weather turns cold. We saw that with Occupy Wall Street, and with Black Lives Matter, twice. It appears that the kids like to let off steam with a bit of rioting during the dog days in any event. But that is compounded if they are couped up inside for months at a time, especially if the weather is good. Something has to give.

Which puts the government in a quandary. It is supposed to be easing restrictions in phases. But if they reverse course and/or dither and delay, and people feel that their summer is being cancelled, then I would expect a summer of discontent to match the famous winter one in the 1970s.

And holidays are a part of that. If we cannot go anywhere then cabin fever sets in, and the devil makes work for idle hands. We need things to reopen not only to stay sane, but to get people back to work instead of kicking their heels. At some point the problems with lockdown exceed the problems with the virus, if we are not careful.

Even last summer a lot of people managed to get away. One year on, and with a massive vaccination programme under our belt, it would be miserable if we had even more restrictions in place now than then. Remember, the self-quarantine deal only started last July, and with exemptions for various countries.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398720

Postby Steveam » March 24th, 2021, 7:46 pm

Lootman wrote: “But what annoys me is commentators who claim that we need to make all kinds of political changes as a result. The reality is that they are just leveraging the pandemic to try and implement changes to society that they wanted before this all happened. And on that topic I will give Boris some credit, as he has not used the crisis and his emergency powers to do anything ideological. He may have made some errors but his focus has been pragmatic - to defeat the virus. Contrast that with what Corbyn would have done, which surely would have been to make all kinds of changes to taxes, labour laws, maybe even nationalisations, all under the cover of the virus "crisis".”

I don’t think you can say what Corbin would have done. You may imagine that he would have done the things you mention but it really is no more than that - your imagination.

In my opinion the pandemic has hidden the economic consequences of Brexit and has benefited the Tories.

Best wishes,

Steve

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398733

Postby AF62 » March 24th, 2021, 8:28 pm

Lootman wrote:Yes, I feel sure there will be some permanent, or at least long-term, changes. Mask wearing won't completely go away and it has always been common to see ordinary people wearing masks in various parts of Asia. People have become more conscious about things like washing hands and being too close to strangers. Nightclubs may never reopen as surely they are the ultimate super-spreader venue.


I don't agree.

For an awful lot 21st June will be the ceremonial mask burning, and although some will continue to wear them for a while afterwards I think that number will dwindle rapidly when they see that mask wearing has swapped from normal to abnormal.

Unlike last summer I believe there will be an abundance of confidence, particularly amongst the young. The risk to them from COVID has been infinitesimally small, yet they are the ones who have been 'punished' the most during the COVID restrictions.

One thing I will be looking at as a barometer of public view will be the the number of 'oldies' attending the gyms when they reopen in April. Pre-COVID the gym I use had a significant number of the retired/elderly in the off-peak hours, but when the gyms reopened last summer the vast majority of them had vanished - presumably fearful of attending a risky indoor activity. Now they will have received their first (and probably second) jabs will they return - I would like to think so.

Lootman wrote:But the real test is what will happen on the much-mooted May 17th reopening date for pubs, restaurants, hotels, resorts and holidays. I hope for a lot but expect a little. I have a trip planned for the week after. I wanted something booked as when we do reopen for holidays, the huge pent-up demand could lead to difficulties in booking flights and hotels, and high prices.


Well the April 12th date will have meant that as pubs and restaurants who can operate outside will open, then perhaps public confidence will have been generated, so the pump is primed for 17th May.

But back to the questions on holidays. For me post 17th May is too risky to book anything - not because of the UK, but what is going on elsewhere. June I might think about, but only as a last minute booking. July and August - too hot in Europe, too many children, and too expensive. Perhaps September but by then I need to start thinking about the 90 in 180 rule so I can get away from the dismal weather in the UK from December to March.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398845

Postby DrFfybes » March 25th, 2021, 10:25 am

1nvest wrote:
So you opine that the whole should continue to suffer in many cases very harshly in order to continue to reduce the risk for a very small percentage of the population. 65 million person years imprisonment for the sake of not even a single percent point of the population, many of which might have been closer to death anyway. I would suggest that lockdown has had negative consequences for a much larger number across the population. Elderly not having seen their grandchildren in what might be the last days/weeks/months of their lives; No holiday breaks just work and remain locked in a 'cell'.

65 million population, 80 year average lifetimes and more than 800,000 will tend to die each year. After a year of Covid the number is suggested as being around 125,000 i.e. 15% of those that died had Covid written on the death certificate. Many GP's don't even see patients anymore, just telephone consultations and referrals. Wouldn't be surprised if many death due to Covid certifications were just being remotely used in a number of cases by GP's certifying deaths.

I would suspect that they'll attempt to have us "back to square one" soon due to mutations. The Spanish flu with similar first wave death rates saw a far deadlier second wave with a 33%+ death rate and that in total spanned 4 years before 'herd immunity' occurred. Current lockdowns may have no influence on the final outcome, just the manner in how many lived the remainder of their lives imprisoned rather than living.


So are you suggesting that being allowed to holiday in Cornwall, Devon, Skegness, etc is "imprisonment"? The confinement is ending, the UK is a prettly large place and 99% of the people in it haven't seen 99% of the country. I do agree that a large proportion of those who died would only have had a few years left, but I bet when you reach 80 you won't be lining up for euthenasia so your grandchildren can go to Ibiza. And these 125k aren't all part of the 'normal' deaths, they are over and above the average number.

I assume you haven't been near a hospital in the last 12 months so won't have seen the queueing ambulaces, the longer wait times, not got relatives waiting for Cancer treatment or a transplant?, not seen how the waiting lists for my sister's hip operation has been postponed yet again, and how she was struggling to get about as her husband was still waiting for his cataracts to be done (actually done last month privately). The NHS has not been completely overwhelmed everywhere because preparations and adaptations were made (like banning trucks from a motorway to ease flow - sorts the probelm for now but causes knock on problems), but the strain on the staff is making many of them think a career at Goldman Sachs is looking like a cushy number.

And you are right, another new mutation spreading and we will be back in prison. So do what NZ has done and keep the bugger out.

Paul

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398904

Postby 1nvest » March 25th, 2021, 1:11 pm

DrFfybes wrote:I assume you haven't been near a hospital in the last 12 months so won't have seen the queueing ambulaces, the longer wait times, not got relatives waiting for Cancer treatment or a transplant?, not seen how the waiting lists for my sister's hip operation has been postponed yet again, and how she was struggling to get about as her husband was still waiting for his cataracts to be done (actually done last month privately). The NHS has not been completely overwhelmed everywhere because preparations and adaptations were made (like banning trucks from a motorway to ease flow - sorts the probelm for now but causes knock on problems), but the strain on the staff is making many of them think a career at Goldman Sachs is looking like a cushy number.

I've had plenty of experience with hospitals and ambulances over the last year. 89 year old mother for instance who had a hip op within 12 hours of her fall back in mid January, and where later that week whilst recouping in hospital she contracted Covid and was totally asymptomatic, but after 4 days of being in hospital and right next to the nurses desk on the same ward as other hip op elderly moved into a 14 day isolation care home where she received no further physio and saw prior good progress totally turn around - in effect seized up rather than continue to regain mobility. And of course all of this time I have not been able to visit her which has elevated her anxieties/stress levels to where she is now considered to have dementia/delirium and as such is considered as unable to return home (prior to her Jan fall she was very fit and mobile for her age).

So a 89 year old where contracting Covid was trivial, but where lockdown/restrictions have had massive negative consequences.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398907

Postby bluedonkey » March 25th, 2021, 1:18 pm

Snorvey wrote:I believe you can still go to Ireland for a hiloday (common travel area and all that).

Somewhere different for most. I think Id rather spend my money in the UK though.....

Yes, BBC news:

"England's travel ban does not apply to those going to or from the common travel area of the Channel Islands, Isle of Man and the Republic of Ireland unless that is not the final destination."

Scroll to the end of the article:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56493002

So not just Ireland, but sunny IoM and Channel Islands as well.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398985

Postby DrFfybes » March 25th, 2021, 5:59 pm

1nvest wrote:I've had plenty of experience with hospitals and ambulances over the last year. 89 year old mother for instance who had a hip op within 12 hours of her fall back in mid January, and where later that week whilst recouping in hospital she contracted Covid and was totally asymptomatic, but after 4 days of being in hospital and right next to the nurses desk on the same ward as other hip op elderly moved into a 14 day isolation care home where she received no further physio and saw prior good progress totally turn around - in effect seized up rather than continue to regain mobility. And of course all of this time I have not been able to visit her which has elevated her anxieties/stress levels to where she is now considered to have dementia/delirium and as such is considered as unable to return home (prior to her Jan fall she was very fit and mobile for her age).

So a 89 year old where contracting Covid was trivial, but where lockdown/restrictions have had massive negative consequences.


So making sure the NHS wasn't overrun actually had a massive benefit for your mother. Without lockdown she'd probably have spent the night (or longer) on a trolley in a corridor waiting for the triage to empty.

Paul

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#398990

Postby 1nvest » March 25th, 2021, 6:16 pm

DrFfybes wrote:So making sure the NHS wasn't overrun actually had a massive benefit for your mother. Without lockdown she'd probably have spent the night (or longer) on a trolley in a corridor waiting for the triage to empty.

I'd rather have endured that and been able to visit/comfort her, and likely having seen post op physio being successful and mental state recovery - over that of our current nightmare situation Paul.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#402823

Postby DrFfybes » April 9th, 2021, 9:51 am

1nvest wrote:
DrFfybes wrote:So making sure the NHS wasn't overrun actually had a massive benefit for your mother. Without lockdown she'd probably have spent the night (or longer) on a trolley in a corridor waiting for the triage to empty.

I'd rather have endured that and been able to visit/comfort her, and likely having seen post op physio being successful and mental state recovery - over that of our current nightmare situation Paul.


Different opinions I guess.

When my mum fell it took 2 hours to get an ambulance to a 90 year old with head injuries as they were all tied up. She pressed her alarm pendant so we know when the alert went through. Personally any drawn out recovery is better than her bleeding into the fireplace all afternoon.

Paul

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#402842

Postby swill453 » April 9th, 2021, 10:39 am

Jet2 suspends flights and holidays until late June due to uncertainty over government travel plans https://news.sky.com/story/jet2-suspend ... s-12270156

Scott.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#402859

Postby Julian » April 9th, 2021, 11:31 am

swill453 wrote:Jet2 suspends flights and holidays until late June due to uncertainty over government travel plans https://news.sky.com/story/jet2-suspend ... s-12270156

Scott.

Interesting. I'm somewhat alarmed to wake up this morning to rumours in the papers that holidays might be opening up, at least under a traffic light system, potentially from as early as May 17th (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56682226). We've seen from Chile what can happen if countries get complacent about their vaccination program and unlock too early. Admittedly that might be because the efficacy data on one of the vaccines they are heavily relying on (Sinovac) doesn't look nearly as good as the efficacy the UK is seeing for Pfizer and AZ against our current dominant variants but if we let something like the SA variant get a foothold too soon, i.e. before booster jabs are available, we could well end up maybe not in as bad a place as Chile is in right now but possibly with a third wave in late 2021 that is much worse than it otherwise could have been. I see a window of risk between very significant unlocking and the start of the rollout of booster jabs and I wonder whether even shortening that window of risk by a month or two might have a very significant impact on what we see in terms of severity of any third wave in Q4 2021.

I also wonder what this might do to local hotels, B&Bs, holiday rentals etc. There is much chatter amongst my friends about how expensive staycations are this year. If international travel does conditionally open up as early as 17th May might a large number of people start thinking "even with testing I can now go to Italy/Spain/Greece/wherever for about the same price as the price-inflated-due-to-demand B&B that I booked in Cornwall so I'm going to cancel that and go overseas instead"? I suppose if that does happen the cancelled bookings might get taken up by people like me who have already decided not to travel internationally over at least the summer and autumn (I'll re-assess in October/November depending on the situation with vaccines and variants) but if those businesses ended up with large gaps in their occupancy that would be a very cruel blow after the hellish year they've just gone through. (And no, it's not all down to personal greed. I know a couple of people who let out holiday homes and they use web sites that automatically do dynamic pricing for them based on estimated demand so they don't actually set their own prices. One friend looked at her own listing out of interest a month or so ago and saw that it was being listed for about double the usual summer rate and thought "there's no way that's going to rent out". She came back about 10 days later to try and block out 2 weeks for herself over the summer and it was 100% booked for months into summer and early autumn.)

- Julian


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