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Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
MrFoolish
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Re: Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

#401086

Postby MrFoolish » April 2nd, 2021, 11:57 am

dealtn wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
MrFoolish wrote:How do you feel about people who drive at 75mph on the motorway? This is also breaking the law and comes with a small increased risk of fatalities.


This is an erroneous comparison and I am sure that you must know it.

If driving at 75mph caused a exponential increase in accidents over time, hospital beds being blocked, other NHS services being axed, then maybe you would have a point. But it doesn't.

Arb.


Neither does a virus with an R rate slightly either side of 1 have the kind of exponential "doubling" path as described either.


Even if it did, we have to eventually find a workable balance. To avoid future viral outbreaks we'd have to stay in a permanent state of lockdown (no travel, no bridge clubs), and I doubt anyone would want that.

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Re: Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

#401095

Postby 1nvest » April 2nd, 2021, 12:24 pm

Mike4 wrote:I can't believe after all the discussion on here of this, there are still posters who don't understand the risk

... of gross incompetence - other island nations that closed their borders have seen massively small numbers of deaths. Or the massive cost of 67+ million person years of attempted population imprisonment and loss of human rights.

Many chose not to adhere to 'guidelines' - often out of absence of any actual choice. Dom, Johnson's mate, drove the length of the country and back down again during 'lockdown'. His father gallivanted off to Europe and back, along with millions of others permitted to fly and walk into the UK unchecked/recorded. Selective helicopter money - where one neighbour might be paid £2500/month whilst another received nowt. Or billions of contracts given to Tory mates, no doubt for some kind of backhand payment in return.

During the 1976 UK heat wave, scaled to the same population density there were more UK deaths than during 2020. Yes helped kept lower by the pretence of lockdown, where just some were paid to stay at home and not others, and roads were only marginally less congested and the actual containment/lockdown never really existed; But where for others the pretence of lockdown has been a remainder lifetime of imprisonment and despair/misery. Care homes for instance where for many in their last years of life has seen them banned from seeing/hugging their closest loved ones.

For many the 1976 was a lovely year, but the higher heat led to a present day population number equivalent of 800K total number of deaths (above 'average') from all causes that year. 2020 and the UK saw a above average 700K deaths from all causes. The actual percentage of population who die from Covid is very small, yet the entire population have had attempted enforcement of withdrawal of their human rights and freedoms - that has caused far far higher numbers of significant issues.

67 million population 80 year average lifetime and simple division suggests 840,000 deaths/year. 2020 700K deaths is above prior average of 600K deaths, but that is how averages are formed, around half will be above/below that average and where some are more exceptionally so.

We're all going to die, its how you live the remainder of that life that matters and for many, locked away from their family and friends for what little life they had remaining is frankly mass cruelty and abuse. Johnson had no regard for care homes, even exported Covid patients into them from the NHS and left care home staff totally without any protections (some were even making their own PP out of dustbin bags etc). A shameful disgrace who welcomed Covid in rather than employing standard close borders practices - perhaps simply so that it didn't impact his fathers ability to jet-set between mainland Europe and back. Blown massively out of proportion as the clown that he is he likes to put on a good show, and has used the opportunity to line his mates pockets such as Cameron and others whilst silencing those that protest by even now having banned peaceful demonstrations.

Think its near over? Perhaps not, perhaps only a quarter of the way through the first of four year as per the Spanish flu that had a similar first wave death toll, only to see 'herd immunity' resulting in mutation into a far far deadlier strain that subsequently killed 30% of those contracting it in a very unpleasant manner. Australia, another island nation, who closed their border were unscathed by that Spanish flu. In a over populated world, either a world war or enforced euthanasia of some kind is due. As ever some make financial fortunes out of such typically four year events. Wait and see, come July and ... whatever reason will be given to sustain imprisonment - most likely some form of 'new strain mutation' along with mandatory identity cards. The Chinese way, where you can only participate if your identity card indicates sufficient compliance and state approval.

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Re: Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

#401099

Postby Arborbridge » April 2nd, 2021, 12:32 pm

dealtn wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
MrFoolish wrote:How do you feel about people who drive at 75mph on the motorway? This is also breaking the law and comes with a small increased risk of fatalities.


This is an erroneous comparison and I am sure that you must know it.

If driving at 75mph caused a exponential increase in accidents over time, hospital beds being blocked, other NHS services being axed, then maybe you would have a point. But it doesn't.

Arb.


Neither does a virus with an R rate slightly either side of 1 have the kind of exponential "doubling" path as described either.


Clever, but it does not invalidate the point and surprised you even bothered to raise such a man of straw. Car accidents are one offs (unless you envisaged them all being multiple pile ups): infections are not one offs but spread rapidly - no doubt you could quote me the doubling time if you wanted to.

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Re: Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

#401108

Postby Dod101 » April 2nd, 2021, 1:21 pm

1nvest wrote:
Mike4 wrote:I can't believe after all the discussion on here of this, there are still posters who don't understand the risk

... of gross incompetence - other island nations that closed their borders have seen massively small numbers of deaths. Or the massive cost of 67+ million person years of attempted population imprisonment and loss of human rights.

Many chose not to adhere to 'guidelines' - often out of absence of any actual choice. Dom, Johnson's mate, drove the length of the country and back down again during 'lockdown'. His father gallivanted off to Europe and back, along with millions of others permitted to fly and walk into the UK unchecked/recorded. Selective helicopter money - where one neighbour might be paid £2500/month whilst another received nowt. Or billions of contracts given to Tory mates, no doubt for some kind of backhand payment in return.

During the 1976 UK heat wave, scaled to the same population density there were more UK deaths than during 2020. Yes helped kept lower by the pretence of lockdown, where just some were paid to stay at home and not others, and roads were only marginally less congested and the actual containment/lockdown never really existed; But where for others the pretence of lockdown has been a remainder lifetime of imprisonment and despair/misery. Care homes for instance where for many in their last years of life has seen them banned from seeing/hugging their closest loved ones.

For many the 1976 was a lovely year, but the higher heat led to a present day population number equivalent of 800K total number of deaths (above 'average') from all causes that year. 2020 and the UK saw a above average 700K deaths from all causes. The actual percentage of population who die from Covid is very small, yet the entire population have had attempted enforcement of withdrawal of their human rights and freedoms - that has caused far far higher numbers of significant issues.

67 million population 80 year average lifetime and simple division suggests 840,000 deaths/year. 2020 700K deaths is above prior average of 600K deaths, but that is how averages are formed, around half will be above/below that average and where some are more exceptionally so.

We're all going to die, its how you live the remainder of that life that matters and for many, locked away from their family and friends for what little life they had remaining is frankly mass cruelty and abuse. Johnson had no regard for care homes, even exported Covid patients into them from the NHS and left care home staff totally without any protections (some were even making their own PP out of dustbin bags etc). A shameful disgrace who welcomed Covid in rather than employing standard close borders practices - perhaps simply so that it didn't impact his fathers ability to jet-set between mainland Europe and back. Blown massively out of proportion as the clown that he is he likes to put on a good show, and has used the opportunity to line his mates pockets such as Cameron and others whilst silencing those that protest by even now having banned peaceful demonstrations.

Think its near over? Perhaps not, perhaps only a quarter of the way through the first of four year as per the Spanish flu that had a similar first wave death toll, only to see 'herd immunity' resulting in mutation into a far far deadlier strain that subsequently killed 30% of those contracting it in a very unpleasant manner. Australia, another island nation, who closed their border were unscathed by that Spanish flu. In a over populated world, either a world war or enforced euthanasia of some kind is due. As ever some make financial fortunes out of such typically four year events. Wait and see, come July and ... whatever reason will be given to sustain imprisonment - most likely some form of 'new strain mutation' along with mandatory identity cards. The Chinese way, where you can only participate if your identity card indicates sufficient compliance and state approval.


I am sure 1nvest feels better after that rant and he has more time and patience than me to write all of that. I thought this must be Polite Discussions.

Dod

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Re: Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

#401122

Postby zico » April 2nd, 2021, 2:31 pm

Luckily, I have friends who do "do" the lockdown. Taking advantage of the new rules, we met yesterday for a country walk - actually 2 completely different country walks in different locations, because we'd split into 2 different parties to keep fewer than 6 in each group. Walked together for hours, keeping 2m-ish distance in the open air, all without feeling our freedoms were being massively restricted.

We split up, and before driving home, I went to a Lidl in a fairly upmarket Leeds suburb. Surprisingly busy, and several people without masks. One person had gone through the checkout and was hanging around packing her bags with her mask around her chin, maybe she thought "shopping" only referred to the bits before the checkout, so she was then OK to take her mask off indoors?? Stopped for petrol, and had to wait for a while, because in the small payment area, just beyond the door that say "Masks mandatory" there were 2 cashiers side-by-side, both dealing with customers not wearing masks.

Before yesterday I was fairly hopeful about getting on top of Covid in the UK, but after these experiences, genuinely worried now that a lot of people are thinking "end of strict lockdown" = "back to normal". The more people that act like this, the longer restrictions will be around, and presumably the louder the protests about our "freedom" being delayed.

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Re: Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

#401129

Postby funduffer » April 2nd, 2021, 2:58 pm

zico wrote:
We split up, and before driving home, I went to a Lidl in a fairly upmarket Leeds suburb. Surprisingly busy, and several people without masks. One person had gone through the checkout and was hanging around packing her bags with her mask around her chin, maybe she thought "shopping" only referred to the bits before the checkout, so she was then OK to take her mask off indoors?? Stopped for petrol, and had to wait for a while, because in the small payment area, just beyond the door that say "Masks mandatory" there were 2 cashiers side-by-side, both dealing with customers not wearing masks.



Yes, and cases are rising in Leeds currently, and also Leeds is in the top 20 local authorities for infection rate, as is most of West Yorkshire.

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Re: Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

#401136

Postby zico » April 2nd, 2021, 3:10 pm

funduffer wrote:
zico wrote:
We split up, and before driving home, I went to a Lidl in a fairly upmarket Leeds suburb. Surprisingly busy, and several people without masks. One person had gone through the checkout and was hanging around packing her bags with her mask around her chin, maybe she thought "shopping" only referred to the bits before the checkout, so she was then OK to take her mask off indoors?? Stopped for petrol, and had to wait for a while, because in the small payment area, just beyond the door that say "Masks mandatory" there were 2 cashiers side-by-side, both dealing with customers not wearing masks.



Yes, and cases are rising in Leeds currently, and also Leeds is in the top 20 local authorities for infection rate, as is most of West Yorkshire.


Can't say I'm surprised based on yesterday. It was a notable fact that most of the people not wearing masks were ethnic minorities. However, the statistics by area (available in link below) show that there are also high infections in deprived areas which have very low %ages of non-white people.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

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Re: Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

#401161

Postby 1nvest » April 2nd, 2021, 4:55 pm

Dod101 wrote:I am sure 1nvest feels better after that rant and he has more time and patience than me to write all of that. I thought this must be Polite Discussions.

A year of imprisonment without trial and yes too much time on my hands, when I could be doing other things such as seeing my elderly mother who is also imprisoned without trial. For what? She'd had Covid at age 89 and not even any mild showing of such. Nor was I one of the helicopter money hand outs where some receive £2500/month for sitting in their 'cell' whilst others receive nowt. Resentful and very angry. Next it looks like mandatory identity cards where the state can depict which events/activities you are permitted to partake or not - which no doubt will inflame further old versus young generational divisions.

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Re: Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

#401163

Postby Lootman » April 2nd, 2021, 5:06 pm

MrFoolish wrote:
dealtn wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:This is an erroneous comparison and I am sure that you must know it.

If driving at 75mph caused a exponential increase in accidents over time, hospital beds being blocked, other NHS services being axed, then maybe you would have a point. But it doesn't.

Neither does a virus with an R rate slightly either side of 1 have the kind of exponential "doubling" path as described either.

Even if it did, we have to eventually find a workable balance. To avoid future viral outbreaks we'd have to stay in a permanent state of lockdown (no travel, no bridge clubs), and I doubt anyone would want that.

Yes, the idea that we need to be locked down semi-permanently until the virus is somehow eradicated globally is well wide of the mark. And the people would not put up with it if they see the deaths getting lower all the time, which they are. If people are deprived of a somewhat normal summer then civil disobedience around any restrictions will become prolific.

The big difference here is vaccinations. An indoor game of bridge between four people who have been fully vaccinated is a trivial risk. An outdoor party with people who have been vaccinated is a trivial risk. The US CDC has stated that vaccinated people can socialise indoors without limit. Why aren't the UK health authorities telling us that? Paranoia?

To my mind the government has to continue with its phased schedule for easing, assuming the numbers continue to look very good.

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Re: Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

#401164

Postby XFool » April 2nd, 2021, 5:09 pm

Lootman wrote:Yes, the idea that we need to be locked down semi-permanently until the virus is somehow eradicated globally is well wide of the mark.

So why do you keep bringing it up?

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Re: Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

#401165

Postby Dod101 » April 2nd, 2021, 5:10 pm

1nvest wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I am sure 1nvest feels better after that rant and he has more time and patience than me to write all of that. I thought this must be Polite Discussions.

A year of imprisonment without trial and yes too much time on my hands, when I could be doing other things such as seeing my elderly mother who is also imprisoned without trial. For what? She'd had Covid at age 89 and not even any mild showing of such. Nor was I one of the helicopter money hand outs where some receive £2500/month for sitting in their 'cell' whilst others receive nowt. Resentful and very angry. Next it looks like mandatory identity cards where the state can depict which events/activities you are permitted to partake or not - which no doubt will inflame further old versus young generational divisions.


Well I guess from what you say that I could just about be your elderly father. I have a son who is married with three children who lives in Northern Ireland and I have not seen them for 15 months, partly because one of the grandchildren has quite bad asthma and has been shielding. I have bee able to see my daughter's family from time to time. They live 50 miles or so from me but I have not seen them since before Christmas.

Living on my own, with snow on the ground for 6 weeks over the winter did not help, but frankly, although I have lost a year of my life, (which I suspect is a rather larger proportion of my remaining life expectancy than yours) I am, it would seem, prepared to be somewhat more philosophical about it than you are. I will not advise you how to behave; that is your business but I am afraid that you will not change anything so might as well put up with it.

Over that last year I have been out most days walking on my own or when circumstances allowed, met a friend from time to time to walk and have met my daughter and family a couple of times when the restaurants were open. None of us I think has had a year of incarceration, although maybe you have. If so it is self imposed.

Dod

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Re: Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

#401168

Postby 9873210 » April 2nd, 2021, 5:15 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
I'll ask you a question in return. How come the R-rate (as you put it) is below unity?


Please sir, I can answer that.
It's because the vast majority of people obeyed the lockdown rules. If we had all carried on playing bridge, we would be running out of bridge partners before long. Then, and only then, would the infections decline.

I'd much rather live in a society where people played by the rules.

Arb.

I'd much rather play bridge with people who play by the rules.

I have been playing bridge throughout the epidemic. I've not been in the same room as another person playing bridge since February 2020.

I can understand, though not support, breaking the rules to do something that can't be done without breaking the rules. But Four people sitting quietly around a table is taking the p***.

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Re: Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

#401170

Postby Lootman » April 2nd, 2021, 5:22 pm

XFool wrote:
Lootman wrote:Yes, the idea that we need to be locked down semi-permanently until the virus is somehow eradicated globally is well wide of the mark.

So why do you keep bringing it up?

Because it appears to be a notion that is not rare. Unless of course you believe that the logic behind it is unassailable such that anyone suggesting otherwise should be immediately "unfriended".

I genuinely do not see the risk of vaccinated people socialising outdoors, or even indoors. The US CDC agrees with me. It is possible that the paranoia is overdone.

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Re: Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

#401173

Postby 1nvest » April 2nd, 2021, 5:42 pm

Dod101 wrote:Over that last year I have been out most days walking on my own or when circumstances allowed, met a friend from time to time to walk and have met my daughter and family a couple of times when the restaurants were open. None of us I think has had a year of incarceration, although maybe you have. If so it is self imposed.

As I recall the rules were no more than 1 hour of daily outside exercise time, near your cell (home) and not with others. Certainly not meeting up in restaurants nor with other family members. More a open prison, unless you exhibited Covid symptoms in which case you were supposed to lock up in a cell/room.

I dislike the forward motion towards continual monitoring via street cameras and tracking methods (phones/debit-credit-cards) and now the intention to as good as impose identity cards that can be used to grant or deny your participation in events/activities. Not a legacy I would prefer for my younger generation to inherit.

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Re: Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

#401179

Postby Dod101 » April 2nd, 2021, 5:54 pm

1nvest wrote:
Dod101 wrote:Over that last year I have been out most days walking on my own or when circumstances allowed, met a friend from time to time to walk and have met my daughter and family a couple of times when the restaurants were open. None of us I think has had a year of incarceration, although maybe you have. If so it is self imposed.

As I recall the rules were no more than 1 hour of daily outside exercise time, near your cell (home) and not with others. Certainly not meeting up in restaurants nor with other family members. More a open prison, unless you exhibited Covid symptoms in which case you were supposed to lock up in a cell/room.

I dislike the forward motion towards continual monitoring via street cameras and tracking methods (phones/debit-credit-cards) and now the intention to as good as impose identity cards that can be used to grant or deny your participation in events/activities. Not a legacy I would prefer for my younger generation to inherit.


The reason for your attitude is that you appear to have forgotten that there was a break in the first lockdown which started on 23 March 2020, over the summer months and actually more or less in one form or another until the next lockdown wef 26 December 2020. I assume it was the same where ever you live as it is in Scotland where I am (give or take a few days either way). But restaurants were open for a time and so indeed were non essential shops and even hotels. I do not live in a cell, maybe you do which would be another reason for your attitude. I have a fairly spacious three bedroomed house with about 1/3rd of an acre of garden. In addition to exercising, I have driven to my nearest supermarket from time to time even during lockdown to do my own shopping (which has always been permitted) When in my house, there is always something to be done, whether housework, researching stuff on the internet and during the dark winter I read a lot. Either you have not kept up with this or you are being deliberately obtuse. You have it seems come to a view and are trying to fit the facts to suit it.

Dod

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Re: Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

#401182

Postby Lootman » April 2nd, 2021, 6:00 pm

Dod101 wrote:restaurants were open for a time and so indeed were non essential shops and even hotels.

Actually hotels never closed. Well some did but they were never all required to close.

It was just that you needed an "essential" reason to stay in a hotel, such as performing necessary work away from home.

Some of the airport hotels around Heathrow never closed either, to support air crew and those who had a good reason to travel.

I do not believe that the hotels that stayed open did much to check that stays were essential or not.

PS: In the US, where hotels never closed, they are now back up to 85% occupancy.

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Re: Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

#401197

Postby dealtn » April 2nd, 2021, 7:05 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
dealtn wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
This is an erroneous comparison and I am sure that you must know it.

If driving at 75mph caused a exponential increase in accidents over time, hospital beds being blocked, other NHS services being axed, then maybe you would have a point. But it doesn't.

Arb.


Neither does a virus with an R rate slightly either side of 1 have the kind of exponential "doubling" path as described either.


Clever, but it does not invalidate the point and surprised you even bothered to raise such a man of straw. Car accidents are one offs (unless you envisaged them all being multiple pile ups): infections are not one offs but spread rapidly - no doubt you could quote me the doubling time if you wanted to.


I'm not trying to be clever, or using straw men.

Statements have been made along the lines of "If this, then that ... "

To make such statements, or negate them, there has to be a general understanding of mathematics regarding probability, and essentially low probability and tail event risk. Whether that involves linear, or geometric equations. Few among the population genuinely understand this.

Many bring out exponential examples, and "doubling" when that isn't appropriate. Some being "clever" point out how quickly the difference between a linear and a geometric mathematical series occurs, yet don't seem to realise how quickly such a difference occurs between two geometric growth functions if the growth factors are different. Some are quick to label such error makers as (still) "unable to get it", but display similar inabilities themselves.

It seems using the chessboard analogy, and doubling the quantity of rice on successive squares, is an appropriate means to dismiss those ignorant in "exponential maths" yet those using it fail themselves to question why that model fails when the available population for infection soon drops away making that model obviously wrong.

So if I am being "clever" in calling out inconsistent, or poorly constructed arguments, then I put my hands up and plead guilty. I would rather someone challenged such than not, and certainly think that is better than the "straw men" (from either camp) of poor mathematical reasoning.

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Re: Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

#401215

Postby Mike4 » April 2nd, 2021, 8:01 pm

Lootman wrote:I genuinely do not see the risk of vaccinated people socialising outdoors, or even indoors. The US CDC agrees with me. It is possible that the paranoia is overdone.


Until the South African variant arrives here and negates most of the good results achieved by all those OxAZ vaccinations.

Given the OxAZ is only 10% effective against the SA variant, I can see plenty of risk associated with socialising indoors once SA gets here, as it surely will.

Looking on the bright side, SA has a similar infectivity to the Kent variant, so perhaps it won't achieve domination when it turns up. That'll be for another variant yet to evolve.

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Re: Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

#401219

Postby Lootman » April 2nd, 2021, 8:06 pm

Mike4 wrote:
Lootman wrote:I genuinely do not see the risk of vaccinated people socialising outdoors, or even indoors. The US CDC agrees with me. It is possible that the paranoia is overdone.

Until the South African variant arrives here and negates most of the good results achieved by all those OxAZ vaccinations.

Given the OxAZ is only 10% effective against the SA variant, I can see plenty of risk associated with socialising indoors once SA gets here, as it surely will.

Looking on the bright side, SA has a similar infectivity to the Kent variant, so perhaps it won't achieve domination when it turns up. That'll be for another variant yet to evolve.

Maybe the US CDC is disregarding the OxAZ vaccine, since it is not approved for use in the US. It would be a shame if the UK's favourite vaccine was found to ultimately be inadequate and everyone needs to be revaccinated here.

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Re: Friends who 'don't do' the lockdown

#401220

Postby Dod101 » April 2nd, 2021, 8:20 pm

Mike4 wrote:
Lootman wrote:I genuinely do not see the risk of vaccinated people socialising outdoors, or even indoors. The US CDC agrees with me. It is possible that the paranoia is overdone.


Until the South African variant arrives here and negates most of the good results achieved by all those OxAZ vaccinations.

Given the OxAZ is only 10% effective against the SA variant, I can see plenty of risk associated with socialising indoors once SA gets here, as it surely will.

Looking on the bright side, SA has a similar infectivity to the Kent variant, so perhaps it won't achieve domination when it turns up. That'll be for another variant yet to evolve.


Fortunately I gather that the Covid vaccines can be tweaked fairly easily to deal with mutations so I do not think that the situation is as dire as some are making out. As for 1nvest, it seems that either he is living on another planet, he has a very short memory caused by his obsession or as I said earlier, he is twisting 'facts' to suit his own argument.

Dod


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