Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34, for Donating to support the site

Clots

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Forum rules
This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
dealtn
Lemon Half
Posts: 6072
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 441 times
Been thanked: 2324 times

Re: Clots

#402560

Postby dealtn » April 8th, 2021, 11:17 am

Mike4 wrote:
dealtn wrote:
zico wrote:
More generally, the keener someone is to engage asap in "risky" activities (which I'd class as indoor pubs, nightclubs, parties), the more important it is that they get the vaccine. Matt Hancock also made the point in interviews this morning that being vaccinated also gives more protection to your contacts, friends, family, work colleagues, so the decision could (should?) depend on what importance a person places on protecting other people.


I would also suggest "they" should compare with other "risks" such as getting clots from taking contraceptive pills, or taking long haul air travel, they perhaps accept without further thought.

People are generally very bad at assessing risk, and especially so low probability events and "tail risk".



Oddly, your advice here is not much help.

Telling people they should do as you say rarely results in them accepting your advice and reassessing with a clear mind. It normally results in them digging even deeper into their retrenched position.


I agree that is odd as I didn't advise anyone to do anything. I merely suggested that is something they should do. My expectations on them doing so aren't high for the reasons I postulated. Namely
dealtn wrote:People are generally very bad at assessing risk, and especially so low probability events and "tail risk".

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10366
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3599 times
Been thanked: 5227 times

Re: Clots

#402570

Postby Arborbridge » April 8th, 2021, 11:32 am

dealtn wrote:
zico wrote:
More generally, the keener someone is to engage asap in "risky" activities (which I'd class as indoor pubs, nightclubs, parties), the more important it is that they get the vaccine. Matt Hancock also made the point in interviews this morning that being vaccinated also gives more protection to your contacts, friends, family, work colleagues, so the decision could (should?) depend on what importance a person places on protecting other people.


I would also suggest "they" should compare with other "risks" such as getting clots from taking contraceptive pills, or taking long haul air travel, they perhaps accept without further thought.

People are generally very bad at assessing risk, and especially so low probability events and "tail risk".


There's never a complete "read across". For instance, people usually take medicine or "the pill" because there is an obvious benefit - avoiding symptoms or pregnancy. Having a vaccine is different because you do not actually have anything to be "cured" immediately. That's the difficulty with younger folk and why they indulge in riskier activities.

I also heard the risk as being similar to driving 250 miles. That sounds quite high to me, but the car journey is presumably a single journey - but is the jab? Is that like a car journey every day, or is the jab risk like one car journey and once only?

The attempts to give us "equivalents" are therefore difficult to relate to.
Arb.

redsturgeon
Lemon Half
Posts: 8910
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:06 am
Has thanked: 1309 times
Been thanked: 3665 times

Re: Clots

#402572

Postby redsturgeon » April 8th, 2021, 11:36 am

Many drugs have death as a side effect. I personally have been involved in the launch of three major drugs of different classes that had be removed from sale within a year of launch, one anti-inflammatory, one anti-depressant and one anti-diabetic. All caused deaths.

Drug induced thrombocytopenia is a common side effect

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1993236/

The frequency of DIT in acutely ill patients has been reported to be approximately 19–25% [7;8]. Generally, platelet count falls rapidly within 2–3 days of taking a drug which has been taken previously, or 7 or more days after starting a new drug. When the drug is stopped, the platelet count rises rapidly within 1–10 days of withdrawal.


John

bungeejumper
Lemon Half
Posts: 8064
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 2:30 pm
Has thanked: 2845 times
Been thanked: 3938 times

Re: Clots

#402573

Postby bungeejumper » April 8th, 2021, 11:40 am

Arborbridge wrote:I also heard the risk as being similar to driving 250 miles. That sounds quite high to me, but the car journey is presumably a single journey - but is the jab? Is that like a car journey every day, or is the jab risk like one car journey and once only?

I'm struggling with quantifying that one. But if it's the risk of death, I'd have thought 250 million miles would still be on the high side?

BJ

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10366
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3599 times
Been thanked: 5227 times

Re: Clots

#402590

Postby Arborbridge » April 8th, 2021, 12:24 pm

bungeejumper wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:I also heard the risk as being similar to driving 250 miles. That sounds quite high to me, but the car journey is presumably a single journey - but is the jab? Is that like a car journey every day, or is the jab risk like one car journey and once only?

I'm struggling with quantifying that one. But if it's the risk of death, I'd have thought 250 million miles would still be on the high side?

BJ


I'll have to listen again to make sure. I does seem very high.

gryffron
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3605
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:00 am
Has thanked: 550 times
Been thanked: 1583 times

Re: Clots

#402596

Postby gryffron » April 8th, 2021, 12:52 pm

bungeejumper wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:I also heard the risk as being similar to driving 250 miles. That sounds quite high to me, but the car journey is presumably a single journey - but is the jab? Is that like a car journey every day, or is the jab risk like one car journey and once only?

I'm struggling with quantifying that one. But if it's the risk of death, I'd have thought 250 million miles would still be on the high side?

UK had 1.6 road deaths per billion passenger miles for car occupants (1/600M), or about 5/bpm gross for all road users (1/200M). (2019) (google)

So 250miles isn't far off 1/1,000,000. If we are assuming proportional use of travel modes. Walking/cycling/motorbikes not just cars. Not necessarily 1 passenger/car.

(I would expect current fatality rates to be significantly lower due to lower traffic levels during lockdown)

Gryff

Bouleversee
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4652
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:01 pm
Has thanked: 1195 times
Been thanked: 902 times

Re: Clots

#402598

Postby Bouleversee » April 8th, 2021, 1:00 pm

What I don't understand is how the MHRA appears to be unaware of the incidences of the same type of clotting following jabs with the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine; there was a report about these published on here a few days ago. It seems a bit daft to switch under 30s to either of those in view of this. And why under 30s anyway? I can't see why they would be any more vulnerable than those between 30 and 50 or even somewhat older. The headlines are saying under 30s but I am pretty sure the broadcast yesterday qualified that in some way. I don't think it was a blanket issue.
A question and answer session in The Times said there had been no instances of such clotting post Pfizer jabs in the UK but that is hardly surprising since that was given almost entirely to older people and it is younger people but by no means all as young as in their thirties who have been given the Oxford AZ jabs and suffered the clotting.

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10366
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3599 times
Been thanked: 5227 times

Re: Clots

#402599

Postby Arborbridge » April 8th, 2021, 1:10 pm

They just repeated the comparison on the world at one.
The risk is similar to the chances of having a fatal car accident on 250 mile journey.

Arb.

zico
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2139
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 12:12 pm
Has thanked: 1074 times
Been thanked: 1086 times

Re: Clots

#402602

Postby zico » April 8th, 2021, 1:14 pm

bungeejumper wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:I also heard the risk as being similar to driving 250 miles. That sounds quite high to me, but the car journey is presumably a single journey - but is the jab? Is that like a car journey every day, or is the jab risk like one car journey and once only?

I'm struggling with quantifying that one. But if it's the risk of death, I'd have thought 250 million miles would still be on the high side?

BJ



Edited to take account of gryffron's post above.

According to latest UK stats on road casualties, there are 5 deaths per billion (yes billion) vehicle miles. Surprisingly (to me anyway) that does equate to a 1 in 800,000 chance of somebody dying for a single 250 mile journey. That's similar to the roughly 1 in a million chance of death from the AZ jab.

If the chances of a car occupant death is 1.6 per billion vehicle miles, then the chance of somebody in a car dying as a result of a 250 mile journey is 1 in 2.5 million, which is quite a bit more than the AZ jab risk.

Just as a comparison if you drive an average of 10,000 miles per year, your chance of somebody dying (not necessarily you) is 1 in 20,000 and of course, if you did that for 20 years, the chance of somebody dying increases to 1 in 1,000.

By comparison, for a UK citizen, your chance of dying from terrorism over the last 40 years is around 1 in 10,000 (including Northern Ireland terrorism).
Last edited by zico on April 8th, 2021, 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

gryffron
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3605
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:00 am
Has thanked: 550 times
Been thanked: 1583 times

Re: Clots

#402604

Postby gryffron » April 8th, 2021, 1:20 pm

Bouleversee wrote:And why under 30s anyway? I can't see why they would be any more vulnerable than those between 30 and 50 or even somewhat older.

Clotting risk highest for the young. Covid risk lowest for the young.

The graphs shown on news and recently in this thread clearly show the balance of risk vs reward for different age groups.

viewtopic.php?p=402380#p402380
viewtopic.php?p=402375#p402375

Gryff

zico
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2139
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 12:12 pm
Has thanked: 1074 times
Been thanked: 1086 times

Re: Clots

#402607

Postby zico » April 8th, 2021, 1:30 pm

The risk/benefit analysis ignores any negative impact of Long Covid. This appears to be something that affects people at all adult age groups between 25-69 years old. The incidence of Long Covid is 50% lower in age ranges 2-11, 12-16 and 17-24. According to ONS, about 10% of people experiencing Covid symptoms still have significant problems after 12 weeks.


https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... timate.pdf

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10366
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3599 times
Been thanked: 5227 times

Re: Clots

#402608

Postby Arborbridge » April 8th, 2021, 1:31 pm

Or....

about 30 to 40 people drown in their own bath every year and about 10 times that number choke to death on breakfast :o

dealtn
Lemon Half
Posts: 6072
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 441 times
Been thanked: 2324 times

Re: Clots

#402611

Postby dealtn » April 8th, 2021, 1:43 pm

zico wrote:
According to latest UK stats on road casualties, there are 5 deaths per billion (yes billion) vehicle miles. Surprisingly (to me anyway) that does equate to a 1 in 800,000 chance of somebody dying for a single 250 mile journey. That's similar to the roughly 1 in a million chance of death from the AZ jab.

If the chances of a car occupant death is 1.6 per billion vehicle miles, then the chance of somebody in a car dying as a result of a 250 mile journey is 1 in 2.5 million, which is quite a bit more than the AZ jab risk.



1 in 2.5 million is quite a bit less risk than 1 in 1 million.

gryffron
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3605
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:00 am
Has thanked: 550 times
Been thanked: 1583 times

Re: Clots

#402624

Postby gryffron » April 8th, 2021, 2:29 pm

dealtn wrote:
zico wrote:According to latest UK stats on road casualties, there are 5 deaths per billion (yes billion) vehicle miles. Surprisingly (to me anyway) that does equate to a 1 in 800,000 chance of somebody dying for a single 250 mile journey. That's similar to the roughly 1 in a million chance of death from the AZ jab.
If the chances of a car occupant death is 1.6 per billion vehicle miles, then the chance of somebody in a car dying as a result of a 250 mile journey is 1 in 2.5 million, which is quite a bit more than the AZ jab risk.

1 in 2.5 million is quite a bit less risk than 1 in 1 million.

Indeed.

Interestingly the BBC post says the risk of YOU dying in YOUR car is the same as a 250 mile journey. Which is clearly wrong. More lousy journalism. The total road deaths figure of 5/bpm is boosted A LOT by pedestrians, cyclists and motorcycles. Which account for a very significant proportion of road deaths, but a tiny proportion of overall mileage. The figure is much better for cars. 625 miles would be more accurate if you're the only person in the car.

Gryff

Bouleversee
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4652
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:01 pm
Has thanked: 1195 times
Been thanked: 902 times

Re: Clots

#402631

Postby Bouleversee » April 8th, 2021, 3:04 pm

Julian -

The blood clots ARE happening after Pfizer and Moderna jabs in other countries but not here because they were given to older people here. The report was posted on one of these threads.

I'd like to know more about those under 30s who developed clots and in some cases died after the Ox/AZ jab. How many in that age group were vaccinated and why (front line NHS workers perhaps?), what proportion of that particular cohort (as opposed to what proportion of all vaccinated) were affected by clotting, what was their ethnicity, Vit. D level, blood group, weight, underlying health problems, inherited pto-thrombin factors, whether on the pill, previous Covid infection. Surely there must be some common factor or combination thereof. If they were mostly health workers in the front line, one cannot discount the amount of stress they were under being a contributory factor. It is well known that stress and lack of sleep and food can have a devastating effect on the immune system. I know from my own experience.

Julian
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1385
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:58 am
Has thanked: 532 times
Been thanked: 676 times

Re: Clots

#402643

Postby Julian » April 8th, 2021, 4:09 pm

Bouleversee wrote:Julian -

The blood clots ARE happening after Pfizer and Moderna jabs in other countries but not here because they were given to older people here. The report was posted on one of these threads.

I'd like to know more about those under 30s who developed clots and in some cases died after the Ox/AZ jab. How many in that age group were vaccinated and why (front line NHS workers perhaps?), what proportion of that particular cohort (as opposed to what proportion of all vaccinated) were affected by clotting, what was their ethnicity, Vit. D level, blood group, weight, underlying health problems, inherited pto-thrombin factors, whether on the pill, previous Covid infection. Surely there must be some common factor or combination thereof. If they were mostly health workers in the front line, one cannot discount the amount of stress they were under being a contributory factor. It is well known that stress and lack of sleep and food can have a devastating effect on the immune system. I know from my own experience.


I'm happy for the none-in-Pfizer ststement that I heard on the TV from some expert being interviewed to be wrong (in fact I would be somewhat relieved for it to be wrong) but I think I know the report that you are talking about (this one? - https://mental-fitness-group.com/health ... ca-banned/) that says ...

Pfizer’s Covid vaccine has been linked to more blood clots than AstraZeneca’s, according to the vaccine’s data.

Information from the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) in the UK suggests more people have reported blood clots after a Pfizer vaccine than with the AstraZeneca.

Up to February 28, there were 38 reports from about 11.5million doses of Pfizer’s vaccine – compared to 30 from 9.7million AstraZeneca doses.


However what it does not say is how many of the people in the Pfizer group who experienced clots also exhibited low platelet counts and, as I understand it, that is the particularly rare category of clot that is of specific interest here and that is the particular category where I saw one expert being interviewed on TV a couple of days ago saying there were no incidents of that reported for the Pfizer vaccine. That could be for many reasons e.g. they have simply been missed or perhaps follow-up isn't as diligent on Pfizer clotting cases. I assume further blood work is needed to check for the low platelet count and maybe that hasn't been done for the Pfizer clotting cases for instance. It's also possible that the expert I saw interviewed was simply wrong in his very confidently stated assertion.

As to why the fact that it is clotting coincident with low platelet count that is causing such specific concern is something that I would be interested to know. Is it somehow harder to treat thus more lethal so they consider it a more serious side effect than a more "conventional" clotting condition? Or is it simply because it is so much rarer than other types of clotting conditions that they are able to see a signal in the data for that specific clotting condition whereas, given the much higher prevalence of other clotting conditions in the general population, there are no real signals emerging for those sorts of clots?

For me one key piece of data missing here is, in those 38 reports (up to 28th Feb) of clotting in people getting the Pfizer vaccine, just how many also had low platelet counts.

On your list of "I'd like to know more about..." I agree with every one of those. The observation on stress and the immune system is something that has occurred to me before as well, particularly in respect to the Spanish Flu. I had always wondered why at certain stages of that pandemic it was unusual in disproportionately targeted young adults (or so I have read). Maybe it wasn't the virus that was unusual but the young adults around at the time given that it was the end of WW1. If you're talking about stress damaging the immune system I can't imagine a better way to do that than spending time in the trenches of WW1, plus malnutrition I expect and a whole load of other adverse factors. I wouldn't be surprised if, for at least a while after that experience, a whole load of teenagers and 20-somethings had the immune systems of a 90 year old due to experiencing levels of stress that I simply cannot begin to imagine.

- Julian

Bouleversee
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4652
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:01 pm
Has thanked: 1195 times
Been thanked: 902 times

Re: Clots

#402645

Postby Bouleversee » April 8th, 2021, 4:15 pm

No, it wasn't that one, Julian. It was this, if the link works: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajh.26132

Julian
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1385
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:58 am
Has thanked: 532 times
Been thanked: 676 times

Re: Clots

#402649

Postby Julian » April 8th, 2021, 4:23 pm

Bouleversee wrote:No, it wasn't that one, Julian. It was this, if the link works: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajh.26132

Ah. Thank you.

I'm off for my daily walk now but will look at that when I get a chance later tonight, and come back here and eat humble pie if appropriate!

- Julian

Bouleversee
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4652
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:01 pm
Has thanked: 1195 times
Been thanked: 902 times

Re: Clots

#402656

Postby Bouleversee » April 8th, 2021, 4:39 pm

No need for any humble pie but after you have read it, you may wonder as I do why it is only AZN who is getting it in the neck over this and why the MHRA don't seem to be up to speed on this and bending over backwards to be fair and indeed to make sense. I have even forwarded that report to them and to The Times who happily quote the MHRA without challenging them on their assertion. Needless to say, nobody has come back to me. I spend my life banging my head against brick walls which only occasionally collapse as a result. Perhaps it's I who should eat humble pie!

9873210
Lemon Slice
Posts: 984
Joined: December 9th, 2016, 6:44 am
Has thanked: 226 times
Been thanked: 296 times

Re: Clots

#402679

Postby 9873210 » April 8th, 2021, 5:46 pm

Julian wrote:However what it does not say is how many of the people in the Pfizer group who experienced clots also exhibited low platelet counts and, as I understand it, that is the particularly rare category of clot that is of specific interest here.


There is often undue attention on particular narrow sets of symptoms. We see this in studies of things that have been repeatedly studied such as oral contraceptives, aspirin or coffee. All of these have a wide variety of effects, causing some dangers to go up and others to go down. Which risks increase and which decrease may be of interest to bio-medical researchers looking for pathways, but usually have little practical significance.

Practically I am more interested in the total danger. I don't care if there is a small increase in the risk of a particular type of breast cancer trading off an equally small decrease in the risk of particular type of liver cancer.

Further IMHO there is too much concern about direction rather than magnitude. Zero is a set of measure zero. If you look at any treatment and any effect the risk will often change and in many cases a large enough study could detect that change. Sometimes the change will be a small increase and sometimes a small decrease. I am much more interested in knowing the risk is within some small bounds than that the bounds include zero.


Return to “Coronavirus Discussions”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests