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Back to the office...not yet!

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
redsturgeon
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Back to the office...not yet!

#404658

Postby redsturgeon » April 16th, 2021, 8:57 am

I have been noticing an increase in traffic this week and was thinking that maybe there is a move back to the office. However, dropping off my daughter at the station this morning on the mainline, about 60 minutes to Waterloo it was dead. The large carpark is usually full by 8am but at 8.30 it was maybe 5% to 10% full. I wonder if this is a permanent shift, if so there are major repercussion for London over the next couple of years and more.

John

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Re: Back to the office...not yet!

#404661

Postby BigB » April 16th, 2021, 9:11 am

redsturgeon wrote:I have been noticing an increase in traffic this week and was thinking that maybe there is a move back to the office. However, dropping off my daughter at the station this morning on the mainline, about 60 minutes to Waterloo it was dead. The large carpark is usually full by 8am but at 8.30 it was maybe 5% to 10% full. I wonder if this is a permanent shift, if so there are major repercussion for London over the next couple of years and more.

John


My son took a new job about 3 or 4 months ago with a company based in London, on the understanding he would be required in the office 2 or 3 days a week when normality resumed. I think he did his first commute yesterday, and anticipates doing max 2 days, maybe then down to 1 based on how it goes.

We have already seen some dodgy reports with headlines about home workers who are keen to get back to the office, and there will be some reverse lobbying applied to get companies getting their staff back in to support town and city centre economies, not to mention transport income.

Maybe we can reach a compromise where workers rotate with colleague teams and share the same office space, but on different days, allowing personal flexibility, but also reinstating the ability to colocate.

B

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Re: Back to the office...not yet!

#404663

Postby redsturgeon » April 16th, 2021, 9:16 am

Forgot to add, last night during my weekly poker game (online) my friend who has worked for a large clinical trials company for 25 years announced they are closing their large UK offices and downsizing to a place a quarter of the size. He is clearing out his office and desk today after ten years in the same office with the building.

John

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Re: Back to the office...not yet!

#404666

Postby Dod101 » April 16th, 2021, 9:35 am

I am long past worrying about this sort of thing but I think there will be a move to as RS has said have office workers in their offices for maybe 40/50% of the time and employers will be able to reduce their need for office space which is why B Land for instance is trying to change the shape of its portfolio.

Dod

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Re: Back to the office...not yet!

#404668

Postby dealtn » April 16th, 2021, 9:40 am

Dod101 wrote:I am long past worrying about this sort of thing but I think there will be a move to as RS has said have office workers in their offices for maybe 40/50% of the time and employers will be able to reduce their need for office space which is why B Land for instance is trying to change the shape of its portfolio.

Dod


BLND share of their portfolio devoted to Office Space is rising though. They are shrinking Retail.

They are also doing considerable development, and mixed use campuses. They are looking forward at how space will be used. It's one of the reasons I am comfortable with such REITs. They have prime sites to start with, and the demise of "the office", provides opportunities for residential development, which can be more profitable than offices too, given the "housing shortage".

Many see "office" bad, "retail" bad, therefore commercial property REITs bad.

Where some see only problems others see opportunities.

(Waiting for additional news on the BLND Southwark project).

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Re: Back to the office...not yet!

#404670

Postby Dod101 » April 16th, 2021, 9:43 am

dealtn wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I am long past worrying about this sort of thing but I think there will be a move to as RS has said have office workers in their offices for maybe 40/50% of the time and employers will be able to reduce their need for office space which is why B Land for instance is trying to change the shape of its portfolio.

Dod


BLND share of their portfolio devoted to Office Space is rising though. They are shrinking Retail.

They are also doing considerable development, and mixed use campuses. They are looking forward at how space will be used. It's one of the reasons I am comfortable with such REITs. They have prime sites to start with, and the demise of "the office", provides opportunities for residential development, which can be more profitable than offices too, given the "housing shortage".

Many see "office" bad, "retail" bad, therefore commercial property REITs bad.

Where some see only problems others see opportunities.

(Waiting for additional news on the BLND Southwark project).


Indeed.

Dod

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Re: Back to the office...not yet!

#404672

Postby Lanark » April 16th, 2021, 9:48 am

The effect I can see this having on the property market is that one bedroom flats will only be attractive to the unemployed - everyone else is going to want a house with a spare room or two.

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Re: Back to the office...not yet!

#404759

Postby Lootman » April 16th, 2021, 4:31 pm

My wife is expected back at the office in June, for 3 days a week. She worked 4 days a week in the office before the epidemic.

I am not aware that any office space has or will be given up. This is a private medical research unit attached to a university teaching hospital in London.

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Re: Back to the office...not yet!

#404761

Postby murraypaul » April 16th, 2021, 4:40 pm

I think it going to obviously vary a lot depending on what sort of job you have.
I'm now expecting that I will never regularly work in the office again, having previously done a 3 in/2 out split.
My company is looking to sell our current building and switch to a meeting rooms/hotdesking arrangement, with much less capacity.

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Re: Back to the office...not yet!

#404782

Postby Dod101 » April 16th, 2021, 5:33 pm

murraypaul wrote:I think it going to obviously vary a lot depending on what sort of job you have.
I'm now expecting that I will never regularly work in the office again, having previously done a 3 in/2 out split.
My company is looking to sell our current building and switch to a meeting rooms/hotdesking arrangement, with much less capacity.


I expect that will be the new norm because companies will see the savings, even if they have to compensate home workers to some extent.

Dod

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Re: Back to the office...not yet!

#404803

Postby murraypaul » April 16th, 2021, 7:27 pm

Dod101 wrote:I expect that will be the new norm because companies will see the savings, even if they have to compensate home workers to some extent.


I think it will happen in the short term, but I also think there will be a backlash in maybe 5 years or so, where companies try to centralise again.
WFH is fine for people who've worked together for years anyway, but it is harder to introduce new people and build team or company spirit.

What that means for investment I'm not sure. I'd certainly be staying away from large commercial property.
The firms that specialise in renting out flexible office space might see a boom.

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Re: Back to the office...not yet!

#404810

Postby Mike4 » April 16th, 2021, 7:41 pm

murraypaul wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I expect that will be the new norm because companies will see the savings, even if they have to compensate home workers to some extent.


I think it will happen in the short term, but I also think there will be a backlash in maybe 5 years or so, where companies try to centralise again.
WFH is fine for people who've worked together for years anyway, but it is harder to introduce new people and build team or company spirit.


Totally agree, making your workforce WFH is great for the company in the short or even the medium term because everyone remembers the office, the team spirit and personalities of all their colleagues and all that. Get rid of the office base and once a significant proportion of the staff have been churned, I predict it will come off the rails big time. The new staffers won't be getting any of that so will develop no loyalty, and will drop the company/job in a heartbeat as soon as things stop going their way, as things always do in the fullness of time.

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Re: Back to the office...not yet!

#404836

Postby NotSure » April 16th, 2021, 9:09 pm

Mike4 wrote:Totally agree, making your workforce WFH is great for the company in the short or even the medium term because everyone remembers the office, the team spirit and personalities of all their colleagues and all that. Get rid of the office base and once a significant proportion of the staff have been churned, I predict it will come off the rails big time. The new staffers won't be getting any of that so will develop no loyalty, and will drop the company/job in a heartbeat as soon as things stop going their way, as things always do in the fullness of time.


This certainly mirrors my experience. WFH was no problem for the first 6 months, then it started to drag on important aspects on work, and by now it is certainaly detrimental - we have staff who have never been to the office, and I fear we will lose promising 'youngsters' if we don't get back soon. At least 2-3 days a week.

I have now insisted I spend at least 2 days a week on site. This can be acheived without much risk - it's still only 40% occupancy, and the improving weather allows us to ventilate - and I pick the days carefully to ensure I can hook up with certain indivduals. I was on site today, and the amount of brainstorming and productive to-and-fro discussions had us all taking note of what we have been missing.

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Re: Back to the office...not yet!

#404854

Postby Dod101 » April 16th, 2021, 10:04 pm

I think that call centres may well be become permanently WFH though. My daughter works as a trainer for a big call centre and she says that they can hold training sessions no problem offsite except that she and the others find it quite stressful 'on screen' all day. One of her daughters thogh, a grand daughter works part time for the same call centre and it does not matter whether she is in the centre with all the others, at home or indeed in India. Supervisors know aht they are doing and how they are performing and so on so it truly does not matter where they are. Apparently they are planning to substantially reduce the floor space for the call centre but will give staff the option and see how it goes.

Some jobs I am sure will require office working and for the reasons mentioned by others I expect we will see reduction in demand for office space. It will be interesting to see how it works out.

Dod

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Re: Back to the office...not yet!

#404864

Postby 88V8 » April 16th, 2021, 10:48 pm

Anything that needs team working will be impaired on a wfh basis.

I recall what a faff it was when a female team member was allowed to become part-time, having to remember which days she would and would not be there and having to work around it.
In terms of team performance and spirit there is no substitute for everyone being present.

Also, anyone ambitious is going to want to be where the bosses are.

I dare say we will see less centralised headcount, but over time I agree the notion of wfh being a new normal will prove to have been a fantasy.

V8

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Re: Back to the office...not yet!

#404878

Postby Mike4 » April 17th, 2021, 5:04 am

88V8 wrote:Anything that needs team working will be impaired on a wfh basis.

I recall what a faff it was when a female team member was allowed to become part-time, having to remember which days she would and would not be there and having to work around it.
In terms of team performance and spirit there is no substitute for everyone being present.

Also, anyone ambitious is going to want to be where the bosses are.

I dare say we will see less centralised headcount, but over time I agree the notion of wfh being a new normal will prove to have been a fantasy.

V8



I think this will in the long term, prove to be the nub of it. For those who see their work as a career as opposed to 'just a job', reliably turning up in the office will always get them the inside track.

People wfh will tend not to be promoted due to the 'out of sight, out of mind' effect, and leapfrogged by those who show up in the office every day without fail. People in the office run the show, not those wfh. So in effect, wfh will tend to be seen as a marker for those less ambitious than those who travel in to the office every day and the effect will feed on itself.

A permanent desk in the office, or not, will be come to be seen as a more important benefit than a company car and an invaluable tool for ensuring career progression, IMO.

But I know naff-all about it really, having been self-employed for 45 years. What an amazingly brilliantly luckily good decision that has turned out to have been!

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Re: Back to the office...not yet!

#404882

Postby Dod101 » April 17th, 2021, 7:20 am

Well of course not everyone wants to 'get on' and has ambitions, so wfh will suit them just fine but where ideas are required most people work better by sparking ideas off each other and that needs people working together in an office environment. My son in law works for a large and well known fund manager and they are planning a gradual return of virtually all staff from midsummer onwards. It will be interesting to see how it all works out.

Dod


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