Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34, for Donating to support the site

India variant

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Forum rules
This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
scotia
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3561
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:43 pm
Has thanked: 2371 times
Been thanked: 1943 times

Re: India variant

#411695

Postby scotia » May 13th, 2021, 5:09 pm

From the BBC News Website today at 16:58
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57069295
Professor Robert Dingwall, who is a member of the government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, said that while the Indian variant may be capable of becoming the dominant variant in the UK, the risk of a surge in deaths or hospital admissions remains low.

Prof Dingwall, of the School of Social Sciences at Nottingham Trent University, told the PA news agency: "This variant seems to be better managed by the vaccines than the South African variant so that vaccinated people have only a very low risk of infection that is likely to be mild."

UncleEbenezer
The full Lemon
Posts: 10689
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:17 pm
Has thanked: 1458 times
Been thanked: 2965 times

Re: India variant

#411754

Postby UncleEbenezer » May 13th, 2021, 8:31 pm

scotia wrote:From the BBC News Website today at 16:58

Story seems to be, it's morphing into a common cold.

Which makes perfect sense if it was indeed the novelty of the virus that caused symptoms to be more serious. To populations (and individuals) infected or vaccinated it's no longer novel.

Julian
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1385
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:58 am
Has thanked: 532 times
Been thanked: 676 times

Re: India variant

#411779

Postby Julian » May 13th, 2021, 9:53 pm

I see talk of targeted “surge vaccinations” reported in a few places e.g. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ter-admits

Presumably any effect would be somewhat delayed given that the scientific consensus seems to be that protection at least from AZ and Pfizer (and others) doesn’t really start to become meaningful for at least 14 days after the first dose but it still seems like a very interesting idea to me. If the “cat is out of the bag” re the Indian variant and initially certain regions are going to see high growth rates it is still starting from a relatively low number so if surge testing and contact tracing can keep a lid on absolute numbers getting too high for even a few weeks then surge vaccination could prevent additional hospitalisations and deaths by targeting communities most likely to come into contact with an infected person in the next month or two due to the temporary higher prevalence of infections in certain regions.

- Julian

88V8
Lemon Half
Posts: 5768
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:22 am
Has thanked: 4097 times
Been thanked: 2560 times

Re: India variant

#411798

Postby 88V8 » May 13th, 2021, 10:48 pm

Julian wrote:...surge vaccination could prevent additional hospitalisations and deaths by targeting communities ....

Assuming that those 'communities' - politicians' weasel word - are willing to be vaccinated.

V8

servodude
Lemon Half
Posts: 8271
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:56 am
Has thanked: 4435 times
Been thanked: 3564 times

Re: India variant

#411803

Postby servodude » May 14th, 2021, 12:40 am

88V8 wrote:
Julian wrote:...surge vaccination could prevent additional hospitalisations and deaths by targeting communities ....

Assuming that those 'communities' - politicians' weasel word - are willing to be vaccinated.

V8


It's probably the most accurate term though init?

There's a relatively vocal community of "homeopath addicted insta-yoga mums" who need inoculated against anti-vax propaganda.

-sd

funduffer
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1327
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 12:11 pm
Has thanked: 122 times
Been thanked: 831 times

Re: India variant

#411826

Postby funduffer » May 14th, 2021, 8:47 am

Julian wrote:I see talk of targeted “surge vaccinations” reported in a few places e.g. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ter-admits

Presumably any effect would be somewhat delayed given that the scientific consensus seems to be that protection at least from AZ and Pfizer (and others) doesn’t really start to become meaningful for at least 14 days after the first dose but it still seems like a very interesting idea to me. If the “cat is out of the bag” re the Indian variant and initially certain regions are going to see high growth rates it is still starting from a relatively low number so if surge testing and contact tracing can keep a lid on absolute numbers getting too high for even a few weeks then surge vaccination could prevent additional hospitalisations and deaths by targeting communities most likely to come into contact with an infected person in the next month or two due to the temporary higher prevalence of infections in certain regions.

- Julian

Indeed, I read somewhere that the vaccines take effect quicker in younger people - more like 7 days, which would make surge vaccinations more effective.

The situation in Bolton is described in this BBC article. Note the correlation between areas with the high incidence of the virus and low vaccine take-up!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57094274

I believe in Blackburn they have already started surge vaccinations without central government authorisation. It seems it is easier to ask for forgiveness rather then permission!

FD

zico
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2139
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 12:12 pm
Has thanked: 1074 times
Been thanked: 1086 times

Re: India variant

#411939

Postby zico » May 14th, 2021, 3:52 pm

On April 18th, Mike4 wrote -

Mike4 wrote:[rant]

Have we learned nothing?

Bloke on Times Radio this morning saying the highly infectious India variant containing two mutations has arrived here now and over 100 cases have been identified, but because the 'numbers are low", the only action required is to "keep an eye on it".

Yeah well, keep an eye on it until the numbers are much bigger? Then what? What IS the point of sitting on our hands and waiting until the numbers get much worse? Surely this is what has worked out so badly for us in the past. NOW is the time to be stamping it out while the numbers are still "low" and traceable.

Have we stopped incoming flights from India? I suspect not and we probably won't for a further month or two. Hopefully I'm wrong about that though.
[/rant]


Well, here we are one month on and it's yet another Groundhog Day for government's Covid response, with the "India variant" all set to become toe dominant virus in the UK, according to scientists. It's almost certainly more transmissible than even our Kent variant, which itself was 70% more transmissible than the Wuhan variant. We don't yet know whether it's also more vaccine resistant - so why not slow down until we find out?

Round 4/5 in the "too little, too late" series unfolded like this.

First of all, Bangladesh and Pakistan were put on the red list, despite India's infection rate being far higher than both these countries.
Eventually India went onto our red list, but the announcement gave 4 extra days for people to fill flights and get back from India.
Next - should the India variant be a "variant of concern"? No, let's just wait until after the May elections.

This week there was a plan to "surge vaccinate" by vaccinating the specific towns and areas where Covid rates were highest, rather than vaccinating 38 year olds in areas of the UK where fewer than 1 in 1,000 people have Covid. But - of course - it's not yet happened. Apparently Blackburn was going to vaccine the higher risk, but government vetoed it.

On the "data not dates" plan, Monday 17th May is set to open up indoor venues, with various other measures including unmasking for school children. Surely anyone with a even a nano-second of commonsense thinking about this must realise that unmasking school children would be utterly stupid. The masks aren't affecting their education, and removing them will simply help the new variant to spread.

Our PM is giving an address at 5pm. Hopefully there will be some common sense measures. It's too late, but it doesn't have to be too little as well.

zico
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2139
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 12:12 pm
Has thanked: 1074 times
Been thanked: 1086 times

Re: India variant

#411944

Postby zico » May 14th, 2021, 4:24 pm

Interesting proposals from Independent Sage today.

Saying the government's 4th test for opening up hasn't been met namely "Assessment of risks not fundamentally changed by new variants of concern".

They recommend the following.

1. Waive patent rights to speed up global vaccination.
2. Border controls. Quarantine for all international travel to UK.
3. Better local outbreak control, including better, faster test'n'trace'n'isolate.
4. Surge vaccination to areas experiencing outbreaks.
5. Limiting indoor mixing. Maintain social distancing and demonstrate good ventilation.
6. Update the above 5 measures, based on new information that we find out about the India variants in the coming days and weeks.

Overall, act now, don't wait and see if things get worse.

88V8
Lemon Half
Posts: 5768
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:22 am
Has thanked: 4097 times
Been thanked: 2560 times

Re: India variant

#412008

Postby 88V8 » May 14th, 2021, 10:47 pm

zico wrote:Interesting proposals from Independent Sage today.

1. Waive patent rights to speed up global vaccination.
5. Limiting indoor mixing. Maintain social distancing and demonstrate good ventilation.....

Waive rights so that biotech companies have exactly what incentive to work on the next vaccine?

I emailed most of the official SAGE before Xmas urging that ventilation be prioritised.
They/the govt were too stupid to pay heed then, I doubt they will now.

V8

Mike4
Lemon Half
Posts: 7084
Joined: November 24th, 2016, 3:29 am
Has thanked: 1637 times
Been thanked: 3791 times

Re: India variant

#412010

Postby Mike4 » May 14th, 2021, 10:55 pm

88V8 wrote:
zico wrote:Interesting proposals from Independent Sage today.

1. Waive patent rights to speed up global vaccination.
5. Limiting indoor mixing. Maintain social distancing and demonstrate good ventilation.....

Waive rights so that biotech companies have exactly what incentive to work on the next vaccine?

I emailed most of the official SAGE before Xmas urging that ventilation be prioritised.
They/the govt were too stupid to pay heed then, I doubt they will now.

V8



Disagree. The message that ventilation is effective in reducing transmission is finally trickling through to those who make up the rules, thank gawd.

Quite agree about the stupidity of suspending patent rights. Remove the profit incentive to develop vaccines and no-one will bother, obvs. Give it another year and this too will sink into the thick skulls of our political animals. Well, some of them anyway.

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10367
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3601 times
Been thanked: 5227 times

Re: India variant

#412014

Postby Arborbridge » May 14th, 2021, 11:14 pm

88V8 wrote:I emailed most of the official SAGE before Xmas urging that ventilation be prioritised.
They/the govt were too stupid to pay heed then, I doubt they will now.

V8


Well, some officials did get the message. My grandaughter's school has the windows open all the time - throughout winter too, and for some bizarre reason they were not allowed to wear pullovers. They were told to toughen up, which is unfortunate for my grandaughter who has a hacking perma-cough which easily turns into severe bronchitis. Possibly as a result, she has been hospitalised a couple of times in an emergency. No bending the rules by the school there.

Arb

UncleEbenezer
The full Lemon
Posts: 10689
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:17 pm
Has thanked: 1458 times
Been thanked: 2965 times

Re: India variant

#412023

Postby UncleEbenezer » May 14th, 2021, 11:49 pm

Mike4 wrote:Disagree. The message that ventilation is effective in reducing transmission is finally trickling through to those who make up the rules, thank gawd.

A theme I've been banging on about all my life. It's not just dispersing the bugs and keeping up the body's natural defences against them that benefit from fresh air, but those should be reason enough to keep windows open.
Quite agree about the stupidity of suspending patent rights. Remove the profit incentive to develop vaccines and no-one will bother, obvs. Give it another year and this too will sink into the thick skulls of our political animals. Well, some of them anyway.


That's less clear. The patent system has long ceased to serve its notional purpose of rewarding invention, and become primarily a weapon for pirates to prey on inventors. That might be less true in Big Pharma than in tech, but a scientist or engineer who spends time producing patents is no longer innovating: it's one of those transitions to a Suit - like moving to marketing or management. Patents are for Lawyers, and used against inventors.

And in the case of these covid vaccines, they've been funded by governments' huge speculative pre-orders.

Lootman
The full Lemon
Posts: 18674
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:58 pm
Has thanked: 628 times
Been thanked: 6559 times

Re: India variant

#412025

Postby Lootman » May 15th, 2021, 12:02 am

zico wrote:Interesting proposals from Independent Sage today:

Quarantine for all international travel to UK.

Hardly a new proposal. Quarantine for arrivals to the UK has been in place since July of last year. I have personally experienced it twice.

Very recently an exemption has been carved out for a dozen or so countries that are designated as "Green". Even so, most of these dozen are either places that won't admit British citizens in the first place. Or else are small, out of the way and not attractive for holidays. Probably Portugal is the only "green" nation that people would actually want to go on holiday to in any numbers.

Meanwhile I do find myself wondering whether the congestion at airports caused by all these extra manual border control checks isn't doing more harm than good, as passengers are thrust together including passengers from India and other "red" countries all being processed. Wait times are recorded of up to 6 hours. Being fully vaccinated counts for nothing, apparently.

And there is now talk of keeping inbound passengers on planes at the gate if the arrivals hall is too crowded. Or even diverting planes to other airports.

UncleEbenezer
The full Lemon
Posts: 10689
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:17 pm
Has thanked: 1458 times
Been thanked: 2965 times

Re: India variant

#412047

Postby UncleEbenezer » May 15th, 2021, 7:27 am

Lootman wrote:Meanwhile I do find myself wondering whether the congestion at airports caused by all these extra manual border control checks isn't doing more harm than good, as passengers are thrust together including passengers from India and other "red" countries all being processed. Wait times are recorded of up to 6 hours. Being fully vaccinated counts for nothing, apparently.

For the people there, yes of course. Airports are bound to be super-spreaders, just as markets were for foot-and-mouth.

But for the population as a whole, the deterrent effect is probably a net benefit.

And there is now talk of keeping inbound passengers on planes at the gate if the arrivals hall is too crowded. Or even diverting planes to other airports.

Because other airports - and indeed other countries - will so welcome taking on Heathrow's problem.

servodude
Lemon Half
Posts: 8271
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:56 am
Has thanked: 4435 times
Been thanked: 3564 times

Re: India variant

#412049

Postby servodude » May 15th, 2021, 7:41 am

UncleEbenezer wrote:And in the case of these covid vaccines, they've been funded by governments' huge speculative pre-orders


That's a key point in this case
- if it were Dragons' Den there would have been minimal equity left for the manufacturers for the amount of investment

-sd

88V8
Lemon Half
Posts: 5768
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:22 am
Has thanked: 4097 times
Been thanked: 2560 times

Re: India variant

#412072

Postby 88V8 » May 15th, 2021, 10:13 am

Arborbridge wrote:
88V8 wrote:... ventilation ...

Well, some officials did get the message. My grandaughter's school has the windows open all the time - throughout winter too...

That's good to hear ... not the cough of course... but it should have become a key part of the public messaging.
It's not as if it needed a Task Force, just a few key words in the daily briefing starting six months ago; sadly neither SAGE, nor the govt nor the media were interested.

I dare say it will be glossed over in the Public Enquiry, like so many of the avoidable errors... but I expect that will be a topic for another thread.

V8

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10367
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3601 times
Been thanked: 5227 times

Re: India variant

#412101

Postby Arborbridge » May 15th, 2021, 11:46 am

Lootman wrote:
And there is now talk of keeping inbound passengers on planes at the gate if the arrivals hall is too crowded. Or even diverting planes to other airports.


That could well happen, but why, when there is massive space around airports. Maybe not a line of people down that actually runway :roll: but there are plenty of peripheral tarmac bits before you reach the terminal steps or bridges. I've been queuing a while in this way by accident, so why can't it be formalised. Even a snaking queue outside without true social distancing would be better than cramming inside a building.

Arb.

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10367
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3601 times
Been thanked: 5227 times

Re: India variant

#412103

Postby Arborbridge » May 15th, 2021, 11:47 am

CliffEdge wrote:As in all modern issues the truth cannot be spoken. But we all know what it is.


A cryptic crossword puzzler in our midst. :?

zico
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2139
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 12:12 pm
Has thanked: 1074 times
Been thanked: 1086 times

Re: India variant

#412107

Postby zico » May 15th, 2021, 11:50 am

Lootman wrote:
zico wrote:Interesting proposals from Independent Sage today:

Quarantine for all international travel to UK.

Hardly a new proposal. Quarantine for arrivals to the UK has been in place since July of last year. I have personally experienced it twice.


Independent Sage proposal is for real quarantine (as practiced elsewhere in the world) where people are required to isolate in hotel-type accommodation and aren't allowed out. Not the ersatz UK quarantine version of letting people stroll out of entry points, and trusting them to lock themselves away for 10 days, but never checking on anyone.

I've also experienced "UK quarantine" back in September when returning from Europe - UK border control didn't even ask for the forms that we filled in. Basically, a "Scout's Honour" quarantine. When you returned to the UK, did you follow government guidance and travel directly to the place you were staying and not leave until 10 consecutive days had passed? I bet you didn't, and I know we didn't, though we were careful to avoid social contacts. When we returned, I forgot to submit the online forms when I should have done, and decided not to bother sending them in late - I never heard anything from UK authorities about it.

redsturgeon
Lemon Half
Posts: 8910
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:06 am
Has thanked: 1309 times
Been thanked: 3665 times

Re: India variant

#412119

Postby redsturgeon » May 15th, 2021, 12:13 pm

My son is currently under quarantine at our home. He has been phoned everyday since his arrival to ensure he is conforming.

Others we have spoken to have been visited at the address given for quarantine. So I think things have been tightened recent

John


Return to “Coronavirus Discussions”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests