Mike4 wrote:
I have a really bad feeling about this.
Just as the Indian government in their hubris declared the virus beaten and opened up with disastrous results, Boris in his own hubris now does the same.
I do hope I'm wrong.
It's really not '
just as the Indian government did' though, is it?
Just
10% of the Indian population have received their first vaccine jab, whereas over
53% of the whole UK population have received at last one jab (
Source -
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=OWID_WRL)
Current data shows that, across the whole of the UK, around
90 per cent of adults in the over 40 age group had at least one jab by May 13th (
Source -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833)
India were in a much, much worse position than the UK when they decided to walk back on their COVID protocols, and whilst it's clearly right that localised action is being taken in those areas of the UK that are seeing case-rates rise due to this Indian variant, so long as
high levels of severe outcomes are not being seen in numbers that warrant a clamp down on our own wider road-map, I think the approach they're currently taking is the right one.
The article below from 14th May suggests that the underlying '
Secondary Attack Rate' of the new Indian variant is not that different from the Kent variant, and that once what seems to be a surge in imported cases of the Indian variant works through local populations, and those imported case-groups tail off due to the recent travel ban, that the worst outbreaks may stay more local to those imported cases -
The PHE assessment on the Indian variant confirms that the variant is more transmissible than most other strains, and at least as infectious as the Kent variant B117.
PHE are uncertain over whether this is a genuine biological advantage – with the virus able to attach more easily through its spike protein – or due to large numbers of cases being imported from India, where the variant is endemic, before that country was added to the UK’s red list.
If the former is true – that B1617.2 is by nature more infectious – then this will confirm concerns that it could spread more easily and become the dominant strain in the UK.
If it is the latter, this is better news, because while there is already some community transmission in the UK, the number of cases arriving from India will trail off as the red list policy takes effect, and the Kent variant – which is being beaten by the vaccines – will remain the prevalent strain.
The PHE analysis of secondary attack rates – how many people one infected individual passes the virus to – suggests the latter scenario.Source -
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/indian-variant-vaccine-efficacy-covid-strain-modest-reduction-1001431Secondary attack rates for VOC-21APR-02 (B.1.617.2) [The Indian VOC] are similar to those for VOC-20DEC-01 (B.1.1.7) [The Kent variant] in non-travellers and slightly higher for travellers. Small numbers of non-travel VOC-21APR-02 (B.1.617.2) cases mean these results should be interpreted with caution and will be refined with further cases. Source -
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/986380/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_11_England.pdfGiven all of the above, I can begin to see why the current May 17th road-map change is still going ahead, with local focus being actioned appropriately where these case-rate hotspots are currently being seen, and surge-vaccinations put in place where local take-up has previously been low for those most susceptible to severe outcomes, compared to the rest of the country.
What we should perhaps try to remember as well is that even where we
do proceed down the road-map for opening up, individuals still have choices
that they can make if they are still highly concerned about the COVID situation in their own areas....
The future UK landscape is likely to be very much about
balance - where Governments are going to say that people 'can', and
individuals are going to be able to make choices as to whether they 'do' or not....
Cheers,
Itsallaguess