India variant

[88V8]

We could delay Monday's re-opening for 2 weeks and then be in a much better position to make a decision.

We could have, but BoJo has delayed the delay until it's too late. Hospitality has restocked, and a delay now would kick them in the goolies.

If there is a minor third wave, there may be some poetic justice in that a variant introduced by ethnic minorities will primarily kill the ethnic minorities who have chosen not to be vaccinated.

Unfortunately in the process the non-Covid waiting lists will become even longer.

V8

[Mike4]

We could delay Monday's re-opening for 2 weeks and then be in a much better position to make a decision.

We could have, but BoJo has delayed the delay until it's too late. Hospitality has restocked, and a delay now would kick them in the goolies.

If there is a minor third wave, there may be some poetic justice in that a variant introduced by ethnic minorities will primarily kill the ethnic minorities who have chosen not to be vaccinated.

Unfortunately in the process the non-Covid waiting lists will become even longer.

V8

I have a really bad feeling about this.

Just as the Indian government in their hubris declared the virus beaten and opened up with disastrous results, Boris in his own hubris now does the same. I do hope I'm wrong.

[Itsallaguess]

I have a really bad feeling about this.

Just as the Indian government in their hubris declared the virus beaten and opened up with disastrous results, Boris in his own hubris now does the same.

I do hope I'm wrong.

It's really not 'just as the Indian government did' though, is it?

Just 10% of the Indian population have received their first vaccine jab, whereas over 53% of the whole UK population have received at last one jab (Source - https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=OWID_WRL)

Current data shows that, across the whole of the UK, around 90 per cent of adults in the over 40 age group had at least one jab by May 13th (Source - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833)

India were in a much, much worse position than the UK when they decided to walk back on their COVID protocols, and whilst it's clearly right that localised action is being taken in those areas of the UK that are seeing case-rates rise due to this Indian variant, so long as high levels of severe outcomes are not being seen in numbers that warrant a clamp down on our own wider road-map, I think the approach they're currently taking is the right one.

The article below from 14th May suggests that the underlying 'Secondary Attack Rate' of the new Indian variant is not that different from the Kent variant, and that once what seems to be a surge in imported cases of the Indian variant works through local populations, and those imported case-groups tail off due to the recent travel ban, that the worst outbreaks may stay more local to those imported cases -

The PHE assessment on the Indian variant confirms that the variant is more transmissible than most other strains, and at least as infectious as the Kent variant B117.

PHE are uncertain over whether this is a genuine biological advantage – with the virus able to attach more easily through its spike protein – or due to large numbers of cases being imported from India, where the variant is endemic, before that country was added to the UK’s red list.

If the former is true – that B1617.2 is by nature more infectious – then this will confirm concerns that it could spread more easily and become the dominant strain in the UK.

If it is the latter, this is better news, because while there is already some community transmission in the UK, the number of cases arriving from India will trail off as the red list policy takes effect, and the Kent variant – which is being beaten by the vaccines – will remain the prevalent strain.

The PHE analysis of secondary attack rates – how many people one infected individual passes the virus to – suggests the latter scenario.

Source - https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/indian-variant-vaccine-efficacy-covid-strain-modest-reduction-1001431

Secondary attack rates for VOC-21APR-02 (B.1.617.2) [The Indian VOC] are similar to those for VOC-20DEC-01 (B.1.1.7) [The Kent variant] in non-travellers and slightly higher for travellers. Small numbers of non-travel VOC-21APR-02 (B.1.617.2) cases mean these results should be interpreted with caution and will be refined with further cases.

Source - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/986380/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_11_England.pdf

Given all of the above, I can begin to see why the current May 17th road-map change is still going ahead, with local focus being actioned appropriately where these case-rate hotspots are currently being seen, and surge-vaccinations put in place where local take-up has previously been low for those most susceptible to severe outcomes, compared to the rest of the country.

What we should perhaps try to remember as well is that even where we do proceed down the road-map for opening up, individuals still have choices that they can make if they are still highly concerned about the COVID situation in their own areas....

The future UK landscape is likely to be very much about balance - where Governments are going to say that people 'can', and individuals are going to be able to make choices as to whether they 'do' or not....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Itsallaguess]

Apologies, I also meant to include the following responses in my earlier reply, where the European Medicines Agency have released their view that the existing BioNTech/Pfizer, Moderna, and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines do provide protection from the new Indian variant -

The European Medicines Agency is "pretty confident" that vaccines approved for use in the EU are effective against the Indian variant, it said on Wednesday.

Speaking during a press briefing, Marco Cavaleri, the EMA's head of vaccines strategy, said the data seems “rather reassuring” that the mRNA vaccines from BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna are effective, “at least to an extent that will guarantee sufficient protection.”

The EMA expects the two other approved vaccines in the EU, both viral vector vaccines — from Oxford/AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson — would also be effective, he added.

The agency is gathering more evidence from India where the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is in use, he said, adding: “So far, overall, we are pretty confident that the vaccines, generally will be covering this barrier.”

Source - https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-regulator-confident-vaccines-work-against-indian-coronavirus-variant/

Also, regarding the case-numbers in India itself, it does now begin to look like their terrible second-wave is plateauing -

After reaching a high of 4.14 lakh last Thursday, the daily count of cases has dropped significantly in the last one week. This is not happening for the first time, though. After crossing the four-lakh mark for the first time on April 30, the case count had gone down for a few days, before jumping again. But the new thing is that the seven-day average of the case count, which adjusts for daily fluctuations, has begun to decline for the first time during the second wave. The seven-day average peaked at 3.91 lakh on May 8, and has begun to decline after that. On Wednesday, this average had slipped to 3.75 lakh. (See graph below)

A five-day decline in the average case count may not be a strong enough indicator in itself to establish a trend, but there also are other signals that are pointing in the same direction.

Maharashtra, which at one point was contributing more than 60% of daily cases, certainly seems to be in a declining phase now. It’s been more than three weeks now since the state reported its single-day highest case count of 68,631. After hovering in the 60,000s and 50,000s for two weeks, the state’s daily case count has dropped to the 40,000s now.



Source - https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/peak-of-covid-second-wave-in-sight-but-end-may-still-be-far-away-7314259/

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Itsallaguess]

Hancock on Andrew Marr earlier this morning -

"It's quite likely that [the Indian variant] will become the dominant variant...but the good news is that because we have increasing confidence that the vaccine works against the variant, the strategy is [still] on track - it's just the virus has just gained a bit of pace and we've all got to be that much more careful and cautious."

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Itsallaguess]

Oxford’s Emeritus Professor of Medicine Sir John Bell told Times Radio -

Sir John Bell also reveals that a landmark Oxford study has found that current coronavirus vaccines work well against the Indian variant: "It looks like the Indian variant will be susceptible to the vaccine in the way that others are. The data looks rather promising".

"If you do the lab experiment, it looks okay. It's not perfect but it’s not catastrophically bad. There's a slight reduction in the ability to neutralise the virus, but it's not very great and certainly not as great as you see with the South African variant".

Source - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57133372

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Julian]

We could delay Monday's re-opening for 2 weeks and then be in a much better position to make a decision.

We could have, but BoJo has delayed the delay until it's too late. Hospitality has restocked, and a delay now would kick them in the goolies.

If there is a minor third wave, there may be some poetic justice in that a variant introduced by ethnic minorities will primarily kill the ethnic minorities who have chosen not to be vaccinated.

Unfortunately in the process the non-Covid waiting lists will become even longer.

V8

This is a potentially huge issue. I quite often hear people saying that a variant spreading like wildfire and causing a severe uptick in cases isn't necessarily a problem as long as vaccines and/or reduced lethality mean fewer hospitalisations and deaths (from Covid-19). Unless we genuinely learn to live with Covid-19 by massively scaling down or stopping test/trace/isolate altogether that isn't the whole picture. I speak from bitter experience.

I lost the sight in one eye just under 14 weeks ago and although my optician and then my GP referred me very quickly I have still not even had my first consultation with an NHS surgeon. I was called by the hospital 2 days before my initial appointment (that I had waited about 9 weeks for) to tell me that the consultant I was supposed to see had to self-isolate due to Covid-19, that they had no idea when he would be back, and that my case was unsuitable for allocation to a more junior doctor. He is back now but with an even worse backlog so I am still 2 weeks away from even getting an initial NHS assessment on a condition where the chances of surgery restoring my vision start to drop from week 26 onward until, after a year, it has gone from a 90% success rate to a 50% success rate.

I still have my other eye so my condition isn't even life-altering let alone life threatening and I really feel for anyone recently diagnosed with a life threatening or life altering (e.g. debilitatingly painful) condition who might experience any similar disruptions to their diagnosis and treatment due to doctors and other NHS staff disappearing into self-isolation. I haven't found out yet whether my consultant self-isolated because he tested positive or simply because he was tracked down by contact tracers as having been in contact with an infected person, I will ask when I finally get to see him, but in either case if the number of positive cases does rise substantially because of this new variant and if the test/trace/isolate system stays as it is then I can see many more cases of NHS staff disappearing for up to 10 days at a time and when they come back having to reschedule all those postponed appointments before even getting back to trying to chip away at the previous backlog. And I don't see vaccines helping here at all. Yes the vaccines can protect you from death, from hospitalisation, often they can protect you from getting infected at all but even the best vaccine cannot protect you against a contact tracer who calls you up to say "you were in contact with an infected person 2 days ago, please self isolate immediately for 10 days counting from when you were in contact with the infected person" because you don't even have to have been infected at all for that to happen to you. I also note that there doesn't seem to be any exemption allowing you to shorten your quarantine period if you consistently test negative unless this info is out of date - https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... id-19-app/

(Although I will still attend my NHS appointment in case I need surgery I ended up paying for a private consultation so that I at least had a solid diagnosis and could discuss my options. It turns out that I might get a happy ending. In extremely rare cases the issue I have can self-resolve and there are some early indications on my latest scan that my condition might indeed be resolving itself so just maybe I will get the sight back in my affected eye. I certainly hope so because the surgery (or surgeries, multiple operations might be required) and subsequent recovery does not sound like much fun at all.)

- Julian

[Julian]

Oxford’s Emeritus Professor of Medicine Sir John Bell told Times Radio -

Sir John Bell also reveals that a landmark Oxford study has found that current coronavirus vaccines work well against the Indian variant: "It looks like the Indian variant will be susceptible to the vaccine in the way that others are. The data looks rather promising".

"If you do the lab experiment, it looks okay. It's not perfect but it’s not catastrophically bad. There's a slight reduction in the ability to neutralise the virus, but it's not very great and certainly not as great as you see with the South African variant".

Source - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57133372

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Great news. I saw another virologist (not Sir John Bell) interviewed on a news program last night who said that one other reason they are quite optimistic about vaccine efficacy against this newest Indian variant is that apparently this new variant of concern has actually "lost" (as in doesn't have) one of the potential escape mutations that the South African and Brazilian variants have so that's good too I guess.

- Julian

[zico]

Hancock on Andrew Marr earlier this morning -

"It's quite likely that [the Indian variant] will become the dominant variant...but the good news is that because we have increasing confidence that the vaccine works against the variant, the strategy is [still] on track - it's just the virus has just gained a bit of pace and we've all got to be that much more careful and cautious."

Cheers,
Itsallaguess

"Just the virus has gained a bit of pace". An interesting way to describe the likely prospect of a more transmissible variant becoming dominant in the UK (up to 50% according to SAGE, who wouldn't throw out a figure like that on a whim).
"We've all got to be that much more careful and cautious." Except the government, it seems. Still no government advice on TV to keep wearing masks in schools, or practical advice about what to do differently starting tomorrow.

I liked the scientist's advice on Sophy Ridge, basically saying just because the government says you can do something, doesn't mean you have to do it. The scientist confirmed he certainly wouldn't be going indoors at pubs and restaurants.

[Itsallaguess]

Hancock on Andrew Marr earlier this morning -

"It's quite likely that [the Indian variant] will become the dominant variant...but the good news is that because we have increasing confidence that the vaccine works against the variant, the strategy is [still] on track - it's just the virus has just gained a bit of pace and we've all got to be that much more careful and cautious."

"Just the virus has gained a bit of pace". An interesting way to describe the likely prospect of a more transmissible variant becoming dominant in the UK (up to 50% according to SAGE, who wouldn't throw out a figure like that on a whim).
"We've all got to be that much more careful and cautious." Except the government, it seems. Still no government advice on TV to keep wearing masks in schools, or practical advice about what to do differently starting tomorrow.

I liked the scientist's advice on Sophy Ridge, basically saying just because the government says you can do something, doesn't mean you have to do it. The scientist confirmed he certainly wouldn't be going indoors at pubs and restaurants

I had exactly the same thoughts on one of my earlier posts -

What we should perhaps try to remember as well is that even where we do proceed down the road-map for opening up, individuals still have choices that they can make if they are still highly concerned about the COVID situation in their own areas....

The future UK landscape is likely to be very much about balance - where Governments are going to say that people 'can', and individuals are going to be able to make choices as to whether they 'do' or not....

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=28975&start=140#p412342

Do the Government really need to spell out that this is clearly the situation that we're in, and that we still have individual choices in these areas, even if other 'options' are being made available?

If it really needs clearly spelling out to some people at this stage - are we quickly approaching the situation in the UK where they're likely to be part of the problem going forward, rather than part of the solution...?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[zico]

I had exactly the same thoughts on one of my earlier posts -

What we should perhaps try to remember as well is that even where we do proceed down the road-map for opening up, individuals still have choices that they can make if they are still highly concerned about the COVID situation in their own areas....

The future UK landscape is likely to be very much about balance - where Governments are going to say that people 'can', and individuals are going to be able to make choices as to whether they 'do' or not....

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=28975&start=140#p412342

Do the Government really need to spell out that this is clearly the situation tha we're in, and that we still have individual choices in these areas, even if other 'options' are being made available?
Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Yes, I think the government does need to spell out this stuff - I'd have liked to have seen Johnson and Whitty demonstrating "cautious hugs" and safe ways to do it! Most people in this country have been surprisingly compliant with the rules issued by the government, which has really helped control the virus. However, people did Eat Out to Help Out, travelled to see relatives across the country at Xmas - because the government said they could.
They'll go into pubs as normal tomorrow, because the government is saying they can, no matter how small or how crowded the pub.

The scientist today said the Indian variant is now present in England, Wales, N.Ireland and Scotland, but from the media coverage a lot of people will have the impression the new variant is only a problem in Bolton and Blackburn, and that the rest of the UK is completely fine.

The people most likely to spread the virus are the people most in need of detailed guidance, because they don't follow news closely.

[Itsallaguess]

The people most likely to spread the virus are the people most in need of detailed guidance, because they don't follow news closely.

Hmmm.....there's very good reasons why we don't have lollipop ladies on all the road-junctions outside of school-periods though, isn't there.....

I remain of the view that the people that you seem most concerned about, and would perhaps keep the country closed down for to be able to 'look after them', have probably not been following much of the previous protocols anyway, and yet we seem to have got ourselves into a rather good position on the whole, *despite* that....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[dealtn]

The people most likely to spread the virus are the people most in need of detailed guidance, because they don't follow news closely.

Actually I think the people most likely to spread the virus are those with it, or in close proximity to it.

[murraypaul]

I remain of the view that the people that you seem most concerned about, and would perhaps keep the country closed down for to be able to 'look after them', have probably not been following much of the previous protocols anyway, and yet we seem to have got ourselves into a rather good position on the whole, *despite* that....

You could classify people into three groups:
a) People who would continue to restrict their activities, regardless of government advice or laws, because they think it makes sense
b) People who will not restrict their activities, regardless of government advice or laws, because they don't think it makes sense, and resent being told what to do.
c) People who will restrict their activities to that proscribed by government advice or laws, because they may be unsure if it makes sense or not, but will generally do what they are told.

Groups a and b will do what they are going to do regardless.
Group c's activities can be influenced by advice.

(You could further characterise countries by how their populations divide between these groups. The USA have a much higher proportion of group b, for example.)

[Itsallaguess]

I remain of the view that the people that you seem most concerned about, and would perhaps keep the country closed down for to be able to 'look after them', have probably not been following much of the previous protocols anyway, and yet we seem to have got ourselves into a rather good position on the whole, *despite* that....

You could classify people into three groups:

a) People who would continue to restrict their activities, regardless of government advice or laws, because they think it makes sense
b) People who will not restrict their activities, regardless of government advice or laws, because they don't think it makes sense, and do not do what they are told.
c) People who will restrict their activities to that proscribed by government advice or laws, because they may be unsure if it makes sense or not, but will generally do what they are told.

Groups a and b will do what they are going to do regardless.
Group c's activities can be influenced by advice.

(You could further characterise countries by how their populations divide between these groups. The USA have a much higher proportion of group b, for example.)

If we agree that the above is true, the issue for the country as a functioning whole then comes down to how long we all have to wait for the chance that Group C allows themselves to be influenced...

I'd perhaps suggest that if they've not been influenced at all by now as to the importance of the situation, and what might be done to mitigate it, then we can either keep everything shut down and pray to our God(s) that such a situation might change, so that we might one day begin to open back up, or we can continue to provide the information, continue to provide the protection where necessary in the form of vaccines etc., and then we can all begin to take more personal responsibility for the futures we've got ahead of us....

There comes a point where we cannot wait for Group C to all wake up to the situation....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[murraypaul]

There comes a point where we cannot wait for Group C to all wake up to the situation....

I'm not sure you've understood.
The hypothetical group c will follow whatever rules they are given, because those are the rules.
So last week they wouldn't have gone to the shops, next week they will.
That isn't their fault, they are or are not doing what they have been told is safe.
The responsibility lies with those setting out the rules.

[Itsallaguess]

There comes a point where we cannot wait for Group C to all wake up to the situation....

I'm not sure you've understood.
The hypothetical group c will follow whatever rules they are given, because those are the rules.
So last week they wouldn't have gone to the shops, next week they will.
That isn't their fault, they are or are not doing what they have been told is safe.
The responsibility lies with those setting out the rules.

Apologies, I think you're right - my previous answer was mis-read as regarding Group C, and your main point was regarding Group B...

With regards to Group B, I think it's important to appreciate that outside of the new household mixing rules, which are really still quite strict on the face of it and if followed closely, then most 'external settings' where much of the 'inside-building risk' might be taking place from tomorrow, will still have some mitigating factors that continue to reduce risk if they are followed.

Many of those risk-mitigating factors are put onto businesses, rather than being strictly 'personal' factors and duties, and so in 'theory', there will still be quite a lot of risk-mitigation going on....

Group B though - yeah, they're a worry....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[zico]

There will also be some "peer pressure" effects. If you don't think it's safe to go to a small crowded pub, but all your friends decide to go there, do you stick to your principles or go with the flow?

Especially if your friends have just read dangerously misleading guff like this Spectator article (link below). It says in a study of vaccinated health workers in India, their hospitalisation rate was only 0.06%. Sounds great, vaccination gives almost perfect protection against being hospitalised? Well, no. The article does at least go on to give a few reasons why the 0.06% figure is pretty meaningless (no control group, not all the health workers were exposed to infection) but we can probably expect to see this highly dodgy figure quoted out of context over the next few days.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is- ... nt-strain-

The gradual easing of lockdown has gone pretty well so far, with staged easing to give time to see the effects. But things have changed, we don't yet know how much, but as a nation we just now need to keep our fingers firmly crossed that the progress made isn't being squandered yet again.

[zico]

Interesting comment from Matt Hancock about Bolton, saying the town has 18 patients with Covid, 12 unjabbed, 5 one jab, 1 both jabs (frail person) and the majority of these people didn't have the jab despite being eligible.
There are various ways of looking at these figures - one way is to say that 1/3rd of hospitalised patients have been vaccinated to some extent.
(Although in all cases, it's possible the first jab was so recent there hasn't been time to build up anti-bodies).

It would be really useful if the government were to split infection, hospitalised and death statistics into vaccinated/unvaccinated. This should show the benefit of vaccinations, and encourage more take-up. It would also help us understand whether different variants have different responses to the vaccine.

Meanwhile, Dominic Cummings has been sounding off on Twitter about the UK's "joke border" policy (his words) and - very importantly, but far too late - he's promoting the fact that there isn't a health/economy tradeoff because in his words again

"Fact : evidence clear that fast hard effection action best policy for economy AND for reducing deaths/suffering"

He also (rather ironically) complains about "pseudo lockdowns without serious enforcement"!

[Itsallaguess]

The scientist today said the Indian variant is now present in England, Wales, N.Ireland and Scotland, but from the media coverage a lot of people will have the impression the new variant is only a problem in Bolton and Blackburn, and that the rest of the UK is completely fine.

From today's news-briefing via the BBC -

Evidence shows vaccine effective against Indian variant - Hancock -

The health secretary says there are now 2,323 confirmed cases of the Indian variant – known as B.1.617 - in the UK.

He says 483 of these cases have been in Bolton and Blackburn with Darwen, where it is now the dominant strain.

He says cases have doubled in the past week and have been rising in all age groups.

The evidence shows the new variant is not tending to affect older, vaccinated groups, he says, emphasising the importance of getting the vaccine.

He says it has been “brilliant” to see so many people come forward to get the jab in those areas, adding that anyone in the rest of the country who feels hesitant should look at what is happening in Bolton and Blackburn.

The majority of people in hospital with Covid there “have chosen not to have the jab”, he adds.

Source - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57116436

So it sounds like with regards to this Indian variant, those in the most susceptible cohorts who have already had their vaccine are benefiting from having done so, and those in the same susceptible groups that have chosen not to are now rapidly being persuaded to reconsider...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess