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Successful countries maybe left behind?

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Dod101
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Re: Successful countries maybe left behind?

#411878

Postby Dod101 » May 14th, 2021, 11:21 am

I agree with that. Australia and New Zealand are two examples. If they get a couple of cases they more or less lockdown a whole city for a few days and of course their borders are still closed.

Mind you the centre of Edinburgh for instance is very pleasant at the moment as there are no tourists but it is not so good for restaurants and tourist type shops.

Dod

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Re: Successful countries maybe left behind?

#411941

Postby zico » May 14th, 2021, 4:08 pm

Do you have a link to the article?

I'd say that over the last 12 months, countries aiming for "Zero-Covid" have so far had the benefit of protecting their internal economies at the expense of international tourism, so will have had a big net gain compared to countries who've had lots of Covid cases (and many thousands of deaths). Not to mention all those extra months of freedom due to far less time under lockdown restrictions.

In future, we will inevitably revert to our global economy so there's going to be a need for some kind of worldwide protocols and standardisation, because otherwise the most "Covid-careless" countries will simply be developing more dangerous new variants and exporting them to other countries all around the world. If there are just a couple of countries like this, it's possible the rest of the world may decide it's easier and simpler to blacklist offending countries, as they'd be just country-sized versions of Typhoid Mary.

There are already lots of border checks between countries to keep out threats to agriculture, such as Colorado beetles which can affect potato crops, so it would be strange indeed if countries across the world weren't at least as vigilant in stopping importation of Covid variants which kill people.

I remember crossing by coach from Argentina to Chile and we were held up for an hour or so at the border while sniffer dogs checked our luggage to ensure we didn't bring in any dodgy Argentinian fruit, so all along in this Covid crisis it has seemed utterly bizarre to me that many countries (not just UK) have fewer checks on passengers potentially importing Covid than we do on livestock and agricultural products.

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Re: Successful countries maybe left behind?

#411958

Postby zico » May 14th, 2021, 5:30 pm

Thanks. This seems to me to be the critical quote from the article. I don't really think it's feasible for any developed country to isolate itself long-term and can't imagine that was ever any country's plan. These countries have avoided all the initial damage, and have the systems in place to quickly control and suppress future viruses if they should become a threat.

Now that mass inoculation drives are allowing other parts of the world to normalize and open up to international travel, experts and residents are starting to question whether walling off from Covid is worth the trade-off, if implemented long-term.

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Re: Successful countries maybe left behind?

#411979

Postby Mike4 » May 14th, 2021, 7:16 pm

Dod101 wrote:I agree with that. Australia and New Zealand are two examples. If they get a couple of cases they more or less lockdown a whole city for a few days and of course their borders are still closed.


Had we done the same we would probably have avoided months of national lockdown and 140,000 deaths.


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Re: Successful countries maybe left behind?

#411980

Postby 9873210 » May 14th, 2021, 7:27 pm

First world problems. Ironic given the apparent efforts of many countries to leave the first world club.

Amongst other things the successful countries get a choice of how vaccinations are rolled out. They can chose which vaccines to use based on extensive clinical experience. They probably get to do a full approval rather than emergency use authorization before the campaign begins in earnest. They can acquire enough vaccine for the whole country before opening the borders. They get to conduct the campaign in more or less normal circumstances rather than in the middle of an epidemic. For example they can use buses to get people to clinics.

A lot of people want to turn our pig's ear into a silk purse. There was a lot of "the living will envy the dead" back in April 2020 too.

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Re: Successful countries maybe left behind?

#411982

Postby AleisterCrowley » May 14th, 2021, 7:34 pm

@Mike4: Difficult to say - you have to look at vulnerability of the population to COVID - the risk factors seems to be age, BMI, prevalence of underlying health conditions (diabetes/COPD etc)
If nothing were done at all the outcomes would have been different due to the makeup of the various populations.
I'm ignoring stuff like international travel hubs, population density etc - just a thought experiment where everybody is infected

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Re: Successful countries maybe left behind?

#411984

Postby Sorcery » May 14th, 2021, 7:39 pm

Mike4 wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I agree with that. Australia and New Zealand are two examples. If they get a couple of cases they more or less lockdown a whole city for a few days and of course their borders are still closed.


Had we done the same we would probably have avoided months of national lockdown and 140,000 deaths.


I am not so sure it's possible for large countries with extensive air passenger movement to "track" it's cases, once cases rise over a certain level. The only country which did is China, through some very heavy lockdowns such as fixing flat doors shut in Wuhan. If you believe they are accurately reporting. That's simply an observation of which countries have had a lot of deaths, it's the open countries who seem to have it the worst. Track and trace seems to fail when the percentage cases/population gets too high.

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Re: Successful countries maybe left behind?

#411988

Postby Dod101 » May 14th, 2021, 7:56 pm

Mike4 wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I agree with that. Australia and New Zealand are two examples. If they get a couple of cases they more or less lockdown a whole city for a few days and of course their borders are still closed.


Had we done the same we would probably have avoided months of national lockdown and 140,000 deaths.


I was tempted to say nothing but the fact is that the world in general has not missed Australia or New Zealand. With great respect to them they might as well have fallen off the Globe. The same cannot be said of the UK thankfully. We are a very important part of the Global system(s) and cannot just close down. Flat earthers take note!

Dod

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Re: Successful countries maybe left behind?

#411993

Postby 9873210 » May 14th, 2021, 8:47 pm

Dod101 wrote:I was tempted to say nothing but the fact is that the world in general has not missed Australia or New Zealand. With great respect to them they might as well have fallen off the Globe. The same cannot be said of the UK thankfully. We are a very important part of the Global system(s) and cannot just close down. Flat earthers take note!

Dod

You should have succumb to temptation.

For the second quarter of 2020 imports and exports from East Asia (mostly China) and the Pacific (mostly Australia) were down significantly less than other regions.

In 2020 Q3 year over year exports for Australia were down 10.6% compared to 11.5% for the USA, 9.9% for the EU and 9.7% for the UK.

Australia did not "fall off the globe" any more or less than most other countries.

https://unctad.org/system/files/officia ... 0d4_en.pdf

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Re: Successful countries maybe left behind?

#411995

Postby Lootman » May 14th, 2021, 9:07 pm

Dod101 wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I agree with that. Australia and New Zealand are two examples. If they get a couple of cases they more or less lockdown a whole city for a few days and of course their borders are still closed.

Had we done the same we would probably have avoided months of national lockdown and 140,000 deaths.

I was tempted to say nothing but the fact is that the world in general has not missed Australia or New Zealand. With great respect to them they might as well have fallen off the Globe. The same cannot be said of the UK thankfully. We are a very important part of the Global system(s) and cannot just close down. Flat earthers take note!

Yes, reminds me of the old joke about Canada, possibly coined by Rodney Dangerfield:

"They started a country and nobody came".

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Re: Successful countries maybe left behind?

#411997

Postby Dod101 » May 14th, 2021, 9:25 pm

Thank you.Yes. Australia and Canada are quite similar in some ways.

Dod

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Re: Successful countries maybe left behind?

#412002

Postby Mike4 » May 14th, 2021, 10:26 pm

How does the standard of living in Canada and NZ compare with UK?

Just wondering given all the snidey remarks about them....

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Re: Successful countries maybe left behind?

#412110

Postby servodude » May 15th, 2021, 11:55 am

Snorvey wrote:The *rse end of nowhere. Basically.


Wait! Whit? Were U not the guy posting photos frae Fraserburgh?
My French teacher came from there (you'd have thought an assisted place would have stretched to a "Michelle" or "Nadine" but apparently they weren't to the Jesuit's taste)
- he referred to Inverness as "the city"

I like Inverness... was driven up there mid Highers for a fish supper and to swap an ADA-pre-amp for a Valley Arts guitar between music shops (it's a small community in Scotland that deal in decent music gear)
- my wife's a little bit older than me and at that time she was running a hostel in Inverness (she's from Hobart originally)
- 18 years later (give or take)... we're at a NYs party staying in Ordiquish
- and in walks a guy (we'll call him Dougie because that's who he was) and he was "hi C********* haven't seen you for a bit"

Just saying....that didn't happen in Hobart - which is the pink marshmallows of nowhere

-sd

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Re: Successful countries maybe left behind?

#412114

Postby servodude » May 15th, 2021, 12:05 pm

Mike4 wrote:How does the standard of living in Canada and NZ compare with UK?

Just wondering given all the snidey remarks about them....


It's shite - don't bother trying to find out more

That's why they spend all their time watching "a new life in blighty" and "wanted back in the old country" on satellite telly in a tiny room

-sd

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Re: Successful countries maybe left behind?

#412170

Postby servodude » May 15th, 2021, 2:38 pm

Snorvey wrote:- 18 years later (give or take)... we're at a NYs party staying in Ordiquish

Ah the metropolis that is Ordiqish. I think the wife has farming relations up there. The Speyside way goes right by the door, i walked it more than a few times.


It's not just rhyming slang I'll give it that!
- and there's a really good pub in Fochabers

- but if you were looking for a place to give the world an enema ;)

-sd

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Re: Successful countries maybe left behind?

#412848

Postby servodude » May 18th, 2021, 12:16 am

Snorvey wrote:Yeah, Fochabers is a real dump.

https://www.northern-scot.co.uk/news/go ... rd-238503/


Does it make up for the creepy animatronic soup makers? ;)

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Re: Successful countries maybe left behind?

#456266

Postby 9873210 » November 7th, 2021, 2:02 pm

New Zealand's double vaccinated percentage* now exceeds the UK's. Australia should achieve the same early next week.

Since it does not look like either can get back to covid zero we are going to be able to see how much difference the vaccine makes in an otherwise unexposed population. I don't expect surprises, but if 10,000 kiwis die it would be cause to reevaluate the effectiveness of the vaccine downwards.

* Or will exceed "fully vaccinated" in two or three weeks to allow for immunity to build.

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Re: Successful countries maybe left behind?

#456383

Postby servodude » November 7th, 2021, 8:57 pm

9873210 wrote:New Zealand's double vaccinated percentage* now exceeds the UK's. Australia should achieve the same early next week..


Main target shifted in Oz to 90% double vaccinated above the age of 12 a while ago; figures generally considered on a per-state basis, as that is what drives any border restrictions.

Are teens in the UK getting two doses of the Pfizer four weeks apart also? I've not been keeping up

-sd

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Re: Successful countries maybe left behind?

#456398

Postby redsturgeon » November 7th, 2021, 10:08 pm

servodude wrote:
9873210 wrote:New Zealand's double vaccinated percentage* now exceeds the UK's. Australia should achieve the same early next week..


Main target shifted in Oz to 90% double vaccinated above the age of 12 a while ago; figures generally considered on a per-state basis, as that is what drives any border restrictions.

Are teens in the UK getting two doses of the Pfizer four weeks apart also? I've not been keeping up

-sd


Just the one Pfizer vac for under 18s

John

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Re: Successful countries maybe left behind?

#456403

Postby servodude » November 7th, 2021, 10:34 pm

redsturgeon wrote:
servodude wrote:
9873210 wrote:New Zealand's double vaccinated percentage* now exceeds the UK's. Australia should achieve the same early next week..


Main target shifted in Oz to 90% double vaccinated above the age of 12 a while ago; figures generally considered on a per-state basis, as that is what drives any border restrictions.

Are teens in the UK getting two doses of the Pfizer four weeks apart also? I've not been keeping up

-sd


Just the one Pfizer vac for under 18s

John


Thanks John

I guess every bit helps; must make the figures a bit trickier to present if X% of the cohort are considered "fully" vaxed after the first dose.

I know that both our kids had slightly stronger reactions to their second jabs than we did (possibly impling their systems were more responsive after the initial one)

I don't believe they are at present considering boosters for anyone under 18 - but anyone else who had their last jab 6 months ago can have a booster if they want (mostly on a just turn up and they'll check your cert date)
That'll give me something to to in the new year

-sd


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