Number Crunching

[UncleEbenezer]

(courtesy of Private Eye)

India horror story: 17 covid deaths per 100000 population.
UK success story: 191 covid deaths per 100000 population.

[Julian]

I believe the UK numbers more than the India numbers. In fact I think the UK numbers are too high (i.e. a 103 year old with diabetes and a heart condition 'dying with COVID'

By contrast, I wouldn't be surprised if the India numbers were, in reality, 10 times that amount

Plus the Indian outbreak might well be far from over I fear. Yes, there might be signs of it plateauing in places but India is a big place. I'm afraid that even if you consider the numbers at all reliable (which I don't) these are probably very early interim "results" particularly for the Indian data. Far too early to judge the relative severity of the crisis between any two countries especially when one of the countries has only even first-dose-vaccinated a very small percentage of its population.

- Julian

[dealtn]

Given age is a large factor in the chances of dying if infected you would need to consider the age profile of the respective countries too.

I suspect the average age in the UK is maybe 50% higher than in India. Consequently the % > 80, say, as a per 100,000 will be significantly different between the 2 countries.

I suspect its not as near as 10x difference, but once considered alongside the difference in recording of statistics there might be a significant explanation for that initially disturbing difference in reporting.