Brilliant - ZERO !

[monabri]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

Official "Deaths within 28 days of positive test" = zero

[UncleEbenezer]

I thought you were going to say covid cases in your area. As far as I can see, the only reporting areas with zero are various Scottish island groups, though I could have missed somewhere as I don't have an alert for it.

Here we're down to just one case over the latest 7 days reported, which is about as good as I expect it to get ...

No deaths - well, it's summer now, plus it's no longer effectively a novel virus to the vaccinated.

[scotia]

Damned Lies and statistics!
The Zero (on both Monday and Tuesday) is probably the Weekend and Bank Holiday Effect on the English Daily Deaths by publication date. It reflects on the difficulty of registering a death on Sunday or Monday. So don't panic if there is a sudden increase in such published deaths tomorrow.
The Daily Deaths by Death date are an entirely different statistic, and don't settle down to their final value for a substantial number of days. So if you really want to find out how many died on the Bank Holiday Weekend you may need to wait a couple of weeks.

[Mike4]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

Official "Deaths within 28 days of positive test" = zero

Wrong, surely?. The news item actually says:

Deaths reported within 28 days of positive test" = zero

Subtle difference. There may well have been a death (or several) yesterday, which has not yet been reported. But we don't yet know.

[monabri]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

Official "Deaths within 28 days of positive test" = zero

Wrong, surely?. The news item actually says:

Deaths reported within 28 days of positive test" = zero

Subtle difference. There may well have been a death (or several) yesterday, which has not yet been reported. But we don't yet know.

There are different and (imho) confusing measures...I provided a link to the Government website ( rather than a newspaper) where the generally reported figure is "Deaths within 28 days of positive test" which the website ( and BBC news) reports as zero...but, yes,it is a reported number.

[servodude]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

Official "Deaths within 28 days of positive test" = zero

Wrong, surely?. The news item actually says:

Deaths reported within 28 days of positive test" = zero

Subtle difference. There may well have been a death (or several) yesterday, which has not yet been reported. But we don't yet know.

There are different and (imho) confusing measures...I provided a link to the Government website ( rather than a newspaper) where the generally reported figure is "Deaths within 28 days of positive test" which the website ( and BBC news) reports as zero...but, yes,it is a reported number.

I've always thought the bit that makes the headline seem a tad off is:

Number of deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test

I really hope someone's got their eye on possible re-infections

Still a brilliant and hard earned result though!

-sd

[absolutezero]

It's the Bank Holiday data.
The NHS closes at weekend. As my GP says 'if you get seriously ill and need hospital, don't do it at weekend'.
Expect a return to more 'normal' levels today.

[pje16]

It's the Bank Holiday data.
The NHS closes at weekend. As my GP says 'if you get seriously ill and need hospital, don't do it at weekend'.
Expect a return to more 'normal' levels today.

What makes Your GP say that it's nonsense
I had a major issue on a Sunday, was picked from home within 20 minutes
Operated on as they rolled me out of the ambulance straight into theatre
In summary called at 11am, in bed recovering at 2.15pm
Not bad for a service that allegedly doesn't work weekends

[servodude]

It's the Bank Holiday data.
The NHS closes at weekend. As my GP says 'if you get seriously ill and need hospital, don't do it at weekend'.
Expect a return to more 'normal' levels today.

What makes Your GP say that it's nonsense
I had a major issue on a Sunday, was picked from home within 20 minutes
Operated on as they rolled me out of the ambulance straight into theatre
In summary called at 11am, in bed recovering at 2.15pm
Not bad for a service that allegedly doesn't work weekends

Works well when it works!

But traditionally (the world over) there's a higher proportion of eejits taking up resources in hospitals at the weekend (apparently they restrict their efforts during the week)
- so... if you're going to break your arm you'll get faster service on a Tuesday
(Though I think the original poster might have been exaggerating a bit)

-sd

[pje16]

Works well when it works!
But traditionally (the world over) there's a higher proportion of eejits taking up resources in hospitals at the weekend (apparently they restrict their efforts during the week)
- so... if you're going to break your arm you'll get faster service on a Tuesday
-sd

This is why you can't beat the NHS
day to day minor stuff (eg A&E I've got a runny nose !) not so hot
but when it's an emergency, they are Superb !

[servodude]

Works well when it works!
But traditionally (the world over) there's a higher proportion of eejits taking up resources in hospitals at the weekend (apparently they restrict their efforts during the week)
- so... if you're going to break your arm you'll get faster service on a Tuesday
-sd

This is why you can't beat the NHS
day to day minor stuff (eg A&E I've got a runny nose !) not so hot
but when it's an emergency, they are Superb !

Indeed!
Long time fan.. irregular caller.
They served me well while I lived in the UK.

They could do with fewer "middle ark" managers: but it's still a better system than most I encounter (working peripherally in medical device design)

-sd

[pje16]

I had a 55 year gap in requiring their services !
so luckily haven't required them too much
Too much money is wasted on management but show me ANY large organisaton where that isn't the case !

[Julian]

It's great news but the numbers I follow more closely every day are the healthcare numbers - daily Covid-19 hospital admissions, total currently hospitalised and total on mechanical ventilation (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare). Sadly though those numbers are not consistently updated every day in the same way that the cases, deaths, testing and vaccination numbers are. Sometimes the healthcare data can "freeze" for 3, 4 or even 5 days without any updates. I suppose getting reports from all of the healthcare trusts on a timely basis is difficult.

My problem with the deaths data is increasing concern about the headline within-28-days-of-positive-test definition. When we are down to very low "genuine" Covid-19 deaths, as I hope we are with increasing vaccine uptake, the opportunities for distortion seem to me to increase. (Some Bayesian calculations could probably validate/refute that and put some numerical estimates on the likely distortions.) For example if I understand the 28-days methodology correctly, it is quite possible that a death was reported yesterday that was actually from Covid-19, maybe even someone who died on a Covid-19 ICU ward, but because they hung on for a long time on a ventilator their first positive test was maybe 30 days ago shortly after admission to hospital so their death would not be included in the headline deaths figures. Conversely the perfect zero could have been broken yesterday had someone in Bolton (for instance) been persuaded to take a test by door-to-door surge testers 11 days ago, tested positive although totally asymptomatic, and been hit by a bus and killed on his/her first day out after quarantining (and had that death reported yesterday).

I have read elsewhere on this forum that the 28-day thing is a quick and easy first cut and later re-analysis is done to try and more accurately attribute true causes of deaths but it is the within-28-days numbers that all the mainstream media report and I do worry that that might be becoming quite misleading with these low numbers hence my personal focus on hospitalisations and people on mechanical ventilation.

- Julian

[servodude]

I have read elsewhere on this forum that the 28-day thing is a quick and easy first cut and later re-analysis is done to try and more accurately attribute true causes of deaths but it is the within-28-days numbers that all the mainstream media report and I do worry that that might be becoming quite misleading with these low numbers hence my personal focus on hospitalisations and people on mechanical ventilation.

It was a well defined category (or filter) for when things were hectic and there was a large volume of 'data'
But it does seem as though it might have run its course as a useful metric (or perhaps informative would be better than useful - as someone will make use of the fact it undercounts by some margin)
- not least because it's been over a year since this virus emerged and this measure presumes that one cannot be re-infected (which appears to be at odds with reports)

- sd

[absolutezero]

It's the Bank Holiday data.
The NHS closes at weekend. As my GP says 'if you get seriously ill and need hospital, don't do it at weekend'.
Expect a return to more 'normal' levels today.

What makes Your GP say that it's nonsense
I had a major issue on a Sunday, was picked from home within 20 minutes
Operated on as they rolled me out of the ambulance straight into theatre
In summary called at 11am, in bed recovering at 2.15pm
Not bad for a service that allegedly doesn't work weekends

Also personal experience,
When my mother was alive, she suffered from an illness that would flare up and require an ambulance and hospital admission.
There was a definite decrease in the level of care at weekends compared to weekdays. I'm talking basic stuff here.
Call it 'nonsense' if you like but that is my actual lived experience of the precious NHS.
The GP's comments were actually in conversation about this.
So yes. Must be nonsense because you disagree.

[absolutezero]

Works well when it works!
But traditionally (the world over) there's a higher proportion of eejits taking up resources in hospitals at the weekend (apparently they restrict their efforts during the week)
- so... if you're going to break your arm you'll get faster service on a Tuesday
-sd

This is why you can't beat the NHS
day to day minor stuff (eg A&E I've got a runny nose !) not so hot
but when it's an emergency, they are Superb !

Disagree. Many countries regularly 'beat the NHS' on a range of measures.
I would privatise the lot except for an NHS run A&E unit in every large town. A&E is the only bit of the NHS that actually works.
Citizens would get a taxpayer funded health insurance card with unlimited budget (as now) but the actual medical services would be provided by a range of competing providers. As it is elsewhere in the world (except you have to have insurance from your own pocket in most places).
The NHS would be welcome to be one of these providers but would have to be competitive along with all the others.
Providers would have to meet care standards and prices set by the DoH. Good ones thrive and can expand. Crap ones go bust.
Government can deal with the logistics of it but that would be my plan to restructure RNHS.

[redsturgeon]

It's the Bank Holiday data.
The NHS closes at weekend. As my GP says 'if you get seriously ill and need hospital, don't do it at weekend'.
Expect a return to more 'normal' levels today.

What makes Your GP say that it's nonsense
I had a major issue on a Sunday, was picked from home within 20 minutes
Operated on as they rolled me out of the ambulance straight into theatre
In summary called at 11am, in bed recovering at 2.15pm
Not bad for a service that allegedly doesn't work weekends

Also personal experience,
When my mother was alive, she suffered from an illness that would flare up and require an ambulance and hospital admission.
There was a definite decrease in the level of care at weekends compared to weekdays. I'm talking basic stuff here.
Call it 'nonsense' if you like but that is my actual lived experience of the precious NHS.
The GP's comments were actually in conversation about this.
So yes. Must be nonsense because you disagree.

There are statistics to back this up

https://www.bmj.com/content/355/bmj.i5797

John

[pje16]

OK let's agree to disagree
The NHS service I got on a Sunday was brilliant - maybe I was lucky!
There are all sorts of stats to backup and negate anything (Lies, damned lies, and statistics)
There are other factors than death to take into account
https://evidence.nihr.ac.uk/alert/study ... nd-effect/

[UncleEbenezer]

Disagree. Many countries regularly 'beat the NHS' on a range of measures.

Indeed.

Citizens would get a taxpayer funded health insurance card with unlimited budget (as now) but the actual medical services would be provided by a range of competing providers.

Instant perverse incentive: go for unnecessary treatment at inflated prices. There may be a problem now of big pharma incentivising doctors, but it pales into insignificance compared to presenting Joe Public those incentives. Indeed, you'd soon (instantly?) start seeing kickbacks to consumers.

The UK housing market is a chronic mess, in large part due to similar perverse incentives: benefits determined by market prices, market prices supported by benefits. And if you go back to the 1977 rent acts, it offers a demonstration of how such a broken market isn't cured but rather made worse by statutory price controls - and demonstrates the potential for other Bright Ideas to go disastrously wrong.

OK let's agree to disagree
The NHS service I got on a Sunday was brilliant - maybe I was lucky!

Simple. The NHS is a lottery. You happened to be a winner.

[pje16]

Simple. The NHS is a lottery. You happened to be a winner.

I do feel fortunate for more than that, if it had been 12 months later I would have in hospital for 3 weeks surrounded by Covid
and comparing war wounds to others I had one of the best surgeons in the country, and a brother and sister-in-law who gave me excellent after care
lucky indeed !