Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34, for Donating to support the site

Negative Case Count

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Forum rules
This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
UncleEbenezer
The full Lemon
Posts: 10691
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:17 pm
Has thanked: 1459 times
Been thanked: 2965 times

Negative Case Count

#418877

Postby UncleEbenezer » June 11th, 2021, 4:22 pm

OK, today's covid statistics locally are demonstrably inconsistent.

West Devon: 7 cases. Up 6 from one case.

Zooming in, West Devon comprises seven MSOA areas - the ones whose numbers are suppressed when below 3. The most northerly of those shows 3 cases, up from 2, while everywhere else is in now-customary white.

Evidently we're up from a situation where two of our one cases were in that most northerly region. So the remainder of West Devon must've had -1 cases. Erm ...

Rover110
Lemon Pip
Posts: 65
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 4:06 pm
Has thanked: 29 times
Been thanked: 23 times

Re: Negative Case Count

#418979

Postby Rover110 » June 12th, 2021, 9:45 am

I suppose if it said "3 cases, up from somewhere between 0 and 2" then the result would be consistent with the larger data view, and also comply better with the desire to hide the identity of individuals who were infected.

But most-likely that situation was not explored in testing of the software.

- Rover

gryffron
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3606
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:00 am
Has thanked: 550 times
Been thanked: 1586 times

Re: Negative Case Count

#419236

Postby gryffron » June 13th, 2021, 12:19 pm

Do you mean "actual cases" or "cases per 100k"? Since West Devon only has 55k people, just 1 actual case = 1.8 cases/100k. With such small numbers. It could easily just be a rounding error.

They keep giving us cases by district in my native Lincolnshire. Since several of the Lincolnshire districts also have <100k people, 1 single victim could equate to >1 on the stats. And the headline "Cases up 50%" might mean just 3 extra people!

Lies, damn lies and...

Gryff

UncleEbenezer
The full Lemon
Posts: 10691
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:17 pm
Has thanked: 1459 times
Been thanked: 2965 times

Re: Negative Case Count

#419289

Postby UncleEbenezer » June 13th, 2021, 4:08 pm

gryffron wrote:Do you mean "actual cases" or "cases per 100k"? Since West Devon only has 55k people, just 1 actual case = 1.8 cases/100k. With such small numbers. It could easily just be a rounding error.
Gryff

The numbers I gave are actual cases. They've changed since I posted, but currently we're 6 cases (10.8%) in West Devon (over 10% is a rise on what we've been accustomed to), and our northern tip is back to Data Suppressed along with the rest of us. So that could be one of their three (our seven) cases dropping out of the 1-week sampling window.

Percentages would've required rather more work to reach any conclusion, as it would have been comparing percentages of different things. But two cases out of one was perfectly clear and unambiguous in the published government statistics on the day I posted.

[edit] Of course my % above means per-kilocent. Like calorie-counting!


Return to “Coronavirus Discussions”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests