Australia's covid problem

[Sorcery]

Australia is becoming interesting for all the wrong readons. It has barely started vaccinating, yet it's got the delta variant despite all the restrictions on travellers. The problem with isolating a country if you don't vaccinate ,is it creates a potential for a huge wave of infections. It may test if "track and trace" is compatible with large numbers of infections.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-57647413

[Sorcery]

Australia is becoming interesting for all the wrong readons. It has barely started vaccinating, yet it's got the delta variant despite all the restrictions on travellers. The problem with isolating a country if you don't vaccinate ,is it creates a potential for a huge wave of infections. It may test if "track and trace" is compatible with large numbers of infections.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-57647413

For readons read reasons. doh.

[Lootman]

If I could be bothered to look for them, I would find a number of posts I made here, maybe about a year ago, where I criticised the Australian approach at a time when some were holding it up as an example of a country that had done all the right things.

In theory their "convict island" approach to border controls might have helped IF they had combined that with an aggressive vaccination programme like the UK and the US. But instead they adopted a "wait and see" approach to vaccinations.

At the time I said that Australia was merely deferring the problem, rather than solving it, and it is starting to look like that now with new and more transmissible variants taking hold there. So whilst we continue to remove restrictions they are stepping them up.

[Mike4]

I linked to a news report a few weeks ago that basically said those nations that had successfully contained the virus (but not adopted mass vaccination) were now terrified of COVID. See Australia or China with a few dozen cases shutting down huge population centres, whereas in the UK it would be 'Meh. Right whose round is it?'

Except for schoolteachers. Schools and schoolteachers here are still terrified and panicking when a brat tests positive and sending hundreds home to self-isolate. Now why would that be, instead of them being all 'Meh' too?

I'm genuinely puzzled given how laid back the rest of the population now seems to be about Covid.


(Edit to add last para.)

[ReformedCharacter]

Except for schoolteachers. Schools and schoolteachers here are still terrified and panicking when a brat tests positive and sending hundreds home to self-isolate. Now why would that be, instead of them being all 'Meh' too?

I'm genuinely puzzled given how laid back the rest of the population now seems to be about Covid.

(Edit to add last para.)

I'm not sure that is generally still the case, although there will be exceptions. AFAIK when measures were first introduced schools were split into 'bubbles' to reduce the number that would have to be sent to self-isolate if a pupil or staff member became infected. Now, I think the child or staff member is just sent home. Where is it that schools and schoolteachers are terrified and panicking? I think it better for schools to take reasonable precautions rather than being all 'Meh' (whatever that is). Your 'brat' is someone's child, grandchild or pupil BTW.

RC

[BigB]

Except for schoolteachers. Schools and schoolteachers here are still terrified and panicking when a brat tests positive and sending hundreds home to self-isolate. Now why would that be, instead of them being all 'Meh' too?

I'm genuinely puzzled given how laid back the rest of the population now seems to be about Covid.

(Edit to add last para.)

I'm not sure that is generally still the case, although there will be exceptions. AFAIK when measures were first introduced schools were split into 'bubbles' to reduce the number that would have to be sent to self-isolate if a pupil or staff member became infected. Now, I think the child or staff member is just sent home. Where is it that schools and schoolteachers are terrified and panicking? I think it better for schools to take reasonable precautions rather than being all 'Meh' (whatever that is). Your 'brat' is someone's child, grandchild or pupil BTW.

RC

I think the surge-testing areas are implementing whole class (year?) isolations when there is a positive test. Certainly big numbers being reported here locally atm. I think the school/teacher panic could be logistics/effort based rather than virus health worry. They've been running schools real and virtual for a year and a half now - lots of effort, lots of difficulties, genuine welfare concern for their students and staff I suspect.

BigB

[Mike4]

Except for schoolteachers. Schools and schoolteachers here are still terrified and panicking when a brat tests positive and sending hundreds home to self-isolate. Now why would that be, instead of them being all 'Meh' too?

I'm genuinely puzzled given how laid back the rest of the population now seems to be about Covid.

(Edit to add last para.)

I'm not sure that is generally still the case, although there will be exceptions. AFAIK when measures were first introduced schools were split into 'bubbles' to reduce the number that would have to be sent to self-isolate if a pupil or staff member became infected. Now, I think the child or staff member is just sent home. Where is it that schools and schoolteachers are terrified and panicking?

Both the "Today" programme this morning and "World at One" on Radio 4 this lunchtime ran articles about how the number of children sent home from school due to Covid has hit an all-time high, and how badly this is impacting on parents and business in general.

I think it better for schools to take reasonable precautions rather than being all 'Meh' (whatever that is).

If you read my post properly you'll see I got it from the post I was quoting. Another term would, I think, be "DILLIGAF".

Your 'brat' is someone's child, grandchild or pupil BTW.
RC

Yes, well done for working that one out!

[Julian]

Does anyone have comparative data on the economic hit that Australia has taken vs other economies over the last 15 months or so (i.e. from about mid March 2020 when major lockdowns started to become more common)? Australia presumably has had some economic benefit from having pretty much everything open for more time than for instance the UK vs the counter-factor of whatever adverse impact closing its borders almost entirely had on its economy.

There was an interesting Horizon documentary about 2 weeks ago, an unusually long 1.5 hour one, about the vaccines (still on iPlayer here - https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... he-vaccine). It covered the development from the very early stages of various Covid-19 vaccines including AZ, Pfizer, Moderna and one from Australia. The Australian one had funding pulled before it went to large scale phase 3 trials because it was triggering false positives in HIV tests which was considered a bit of a show-stopper. One school of thought is that it wasn't the isolation per-se that was a dead end approach, as I think Lootman has indeed been suggesting for a while now (but apologies if I am mis-understanding and hence mis-characterising your position Lootman), but rather that the time it bought Australia has been squandered and had they been able to implement a vaccination program similar to that of the UK then they would still be in a fairly enviable position now(*). I wonder how differently things might have panned out had that Australian vaccine had similar success to the AZ, Pfizer and Moderna vaccines since I suspect the plan was for in-country manufacture of that vaccine which presumably would have given Australia a good supply of vaccines.

Why has Australia ended up where it is now with vaccine supply which as I understand it is the issue with their vaccination program? Was it simply complacency, thinking they had more time, and so not trying to put down big money on the table to get a significant allocation during the early stages of global production?

I can see some rationale for Australia's approach on the assumption that sealing the borders via aggressive hotel quarantine would continue to keep the virus at bay until, even on their slower vaccination rollout, they had enough people vaccinated to give good population immunity. If one had to point at one single thing that derailed that strategy maybe it is the alarming infectiousness of the Delta variant that allowed it to (seemingly) break right through that hotel quarantine protection.

- Julian

(*) Let's not be 100% pessimistic. Australia might yet get this Delta surge under control via short lockdowns and aggressive contact tracing and get back on track with its strategy but from looking at what's going on and the stories about just how infectious the Delta variant is I'm not too optimistic about that.

[ReformedCharacter]

Both the "Today" programme this morning and "World at One" on Radio 4 this lunchtime ran articles about how the number of children sent home from school due to Covid has hit an all-time high, and how badly this is impacting on parents and business in general.

Yes, I've read the news too.

If you read my post properly you'll see I got it from the post I was quoting. Another term would, I think, be "DILLIGAF".

It's surely better for schools to take the government guidelines rather than 'Do I Look Like I Give A F**k' (I had to look that one up, I'm afraid). Whether you agree with the guidelines or not is another matter and it looks as if they are (in most places) reducing the requirements for isolation anyway. But:

There are now 15,000 children who have tested positive for the virus, up from 9,000 the week before, the DfE data shows.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/29/covid-related-pupil-absence-hits-record-high-since-schools-returned/

Your 'brat' is someone's child, grandchild or pupil BTW.
RC

Yes, well done for working that one out!

And well done for using a pejorative term for children, how very blokeish, hopefully you don't have any 'brats' yourself.

RC

[murraypaul]

Why has Australia ended up where it is now with vaccine supply which as I understand it is the issue with their vaccination program?

The other big issue they had was success.
Their lockdowns broadly worked, virus spread was low, so people were far less willing to take an new and largely untested vaccine, against the very low risk of catching covid at the time.
Here, and in most of Europe and the US, the virus spread so quickly that far more people were willing to take the vaccine.

[servodude]

Hey can I join in?
First the warning:
Presently I'm about 15% Shiraz 10% Holgate Temptress in a cottage near musk
trying to keep a wood fire on (without waking the family)
keeping my fingers crossed the wifi holds up
and failing to remember what it was I ate in the farmers arms (it was a really spicy mince and rice thing with capers from the specials board)

Anyways...
Haven't the feds fked the vaccine thing in Australia right to fk
- top tip: if you're going to run in a populist bigotry ticket try and have an NHS you can fall back on!
It's a cluster cuss of blame storming and bizarre divisions of responsibility; e.g. states handle public aged care, feds handle the private homes - different schemes, different [expletive deleted] rules for staff
- all vax supply handled by the feds (that's the fud government just in case ) and when I say supply they went all in on the AZ vaccine because they could make it here; so that's what there was for bloody ages (unless you were a pollie or sat next to one in a photo shoot)

Anyways so people were lining up for that as if it were a scab sandwich. It's as popular was leprosy - because of how it's been covered in the press
So for a while they've been running about changing the eligiblity rules - promising anything they think they can get away with and trying to second guess what's going to make them popular in the papers (apparently Rupert doesn't tell them beforehand !?!)

...fk . John Aloisi on the couch! wonder if there's enough bandwidth for the VPN so I don't have to listen to him

TBH I'm not really sure anymore what the rules are for vaccines; I'm back in Melbourne on Friday because I'm getting my second shot
but I think I heard today that they'll let anyone that wants have AZ now that they've worked out the indemnity for GPs (but that was in the pub so it might be pish)
- but eventually they'll have to give up when they can't get more uptake... and then they'll be hoping there's enough in reserve to run ahead of the wave (at 3wks between fister jabs) and doolally twunts will be trying to bribe their way to the front of the queue with dreamcatchers and djembe performances

But.... and it's a big but.....if this current outbreak hadn't happened we wouldn't have the footage of the Auslan interpreter signing the story about the "two guys who were sunbathing naked, were startled by a deer, ran in to the woods, got lost, got rescued by the SES.. and were fined 1000 bucks each"
- that might be my favourite bit of the whole pandemic (it's the deer!)

Anyways..
Come on E...

.....ileen!

-sd

[XFool]

Schools and schoolteachers here are still terrified and panicking when a brat tests positive and sending hundreds home to self-isolate. Now why would that be, instead of them being all 'Meh' too?

I'm genuinely puzzled given how laid back the rest of the population now seems to be about Covid.

Frightened of being sued by angry parents?

[XFool]

Things not going so well, down under:

Australia Covid: Queensland says Pfizer vaccine supply will run out in days

The Guardian

State health minister voices anger at federal authorities on vaccine rollout amid further outbreaks and a lockdown in Alice Springs

[9873210]

Australia did the rest of the world a solid by not entering into the Lord of The Flies scramble for vaccines. Not acquiring 40 million doses they did not urgently need left that many more for the rest of us, who did urgently need them.

But instead of gratitude Australia gets a lot of sour grapes for having fully vaccinated 5.8% of the population at a time when fewer that 0.1% had been infected. Note that by the time the UK reached 5.8% fully vaccinated 6.4% had been infected and .18% were dead.

[Lootman]

Australia did the rest of the world a solid by not entering into the Lord of The Flies scramble for vaccines. Not acquiring 40 million doses they did not urgently need left that many more for the rest of us, who did urgently need them.

You make it sound like the Australian government made some grand, selfless, noble, altruistic gesture to help other countries deemed to be more in need.

But of course that is not the case at all. The decision to go slow on vaccinations was a very deliberate one and, as it turned out, a very bad one. It was the job of the Australian government to protect its own people first and foremost. And on that it failed based on hubris. Because they had some arguable success early on in keeping the bug out (more because of geographic luck than anything else) a mood of complacency set in which meant that the government thought it could "wait and see" how the vaccine rollout went in other countries.

So whilst the UK, US and Israel were getting jabs in arms, the Australians rested on their laurels and squandered the initial benefit that lady luck had handed the lucky country. All they did in effect was to defer their epidemic until more virulent variants showed up.

[Lanark]

At the same time, I am very pleasantly surprised how well the UK government (that I hold in the lowest esteem) has coped with rolling out vaccinations.

The UK govt had nothing to do with rolling out vaccinations it was done by the NHS.

The Test and trace system (so called "NHS" Test and Trace) has nothing to do with the NHS and is run by the DHSS (The Govt) through private contracts.

[Mike4]

The UK govt had nothing to do with rolling out vaccinations it was done by the NHS.

Ah so this explains why Nadhim Zahawi our 'vaccines minister' always seems so vacant, clueless and unaware of anything going on with the vaccine roll-out when interviewed in the media. He really is being held at arm's length from the operation.

(Edit to sort out my html.)

[servodude]

The UK govt had nothing to do with rolling out vaccinations it was done by the NHS.

Ah so this explains why Nadhim Zahawi our 'vaccines minister' always seems so vacant, clueless and unaware of anything going on with the vaccine roll-out when interviewed in the media. He really is being held at arm's length from the operation.

(Edit to sort out my html.)

Nice html! Suits you sir

Meanwhile Australia have been trolled by dim quim claiming that Astra Zeneca is second rate; given they're to be honest a bit of a simple country, and COVID hasn't really been a thing, and they've been promised Pfizer if they want it... and the pubs have been open all year... who cares?!?

I guess that's why I got my first dose within a week of being eligible and I'll be fully 5g this time tomorrow... but really, someone should do something about the mouth breathing futnucks that turned vaccination in to a culture war.
But that's for another time..... tonight I'm mostly drinking Black Lung X https://moondogbrewing.com.au/beers/black-lung-x/

Slainte
-sd

[Mike4]

The UK govt had nothing to do with rolling out vaccinations it was done by the NHS.

Ah so this explains why Nadhim Zahawi our 'vaccines minister' always seems so vacant, clueless and unaware of anything going on with the vaccine roll-out when interviewed in the media. He really is being held at arm's length from the operation.

(Edit to sort out my html.)

Nice html! Suits you sir

Meanwhile Australia have been trolled by dim quim claiming that Astra Zeneca is second rate; given they're to be honest a bit of a simple country, and COVID hasn't really been a thing, and they've been promised Pfizer if they want it... and the pubs have been open all year... who cares?!?

I guess that's why I got my first dose within a week of being eligible and I'll be fully 5g this time tomorrow... but really, someone should do something about the mouth breathing futnucks that turned vaccination in to a culture war.
But that's for another time..... tonight I'm mostly drinking Black Lung X https://moondogbrewing.com.au/beers/black-lung-x/

Slainte
-sd

Blimey at 12% that's stronger than the wine I was drinking the other night!

(Some Prosecco muck at 11%.)

Is "dim quim' that bloke who described AZ as "quasi ineffective"? A meaningless term if ever I heard one but it had a devastating effect.

[servodude]

Blimey at 12% that's stronger than the wine I was drinking the other night!

Look it's really very tasty but you could probably get the sameish by mixing Ardbeg and about any porter...

..not complaining, unless the missus realises is meant to be my turn to drive tomorrow

-sd