July 19th

[murraypaul]

But let's not put it out of perspective. Covid wasn't seriously worse than the flu even before the vaccines

https://www.health.org.uk/publications/ ... oved-wrong

In a particularly bad flu year on average around 30,000 people in the UK die from flu and pneumonia, with a loss of around 250,000 life years. This is just a sixth of the life years lost to COVID-19.

We have more detailed data for England and Wales. This shows us that, even looking only at those aged older than 75 (who account for most COVID and flu deaths), COVID-19 has been much more deadly. Take 2018, a ‘bad’ flu year, when around 25,000 of those older than 75 died. They lost a total of 140,000 years of life, an average of 5.75 years per person. This is less than a quarter of the life years lost among those older than 75 from COVID-19. And that is despite the huge mitigation measures – lockdowns etc – used to manage COVID-19. Had we treated COVID-19 like we treat flu, and not introduced those measures, the death toll would have been much higher.

In terms of mortality, COVID-19 was particularly bad for men, compared with flu. The years of life lost for men older than 75 was around five times higher than in 2018’s bad flu year; for women it was four times higher.

[onthemove]

All your figures tell you is that a lot of people got covid at the same time. Which is perhaps not surprising, as Covid has a higher "R" rate than the flu.

Yes, which makes it a lot more dangerous. Or, in your words, 'seriously worse'.

I don't agree. While it might be more of a challenge for an underfunded NHS to deal with, for a rapidly spreading virus, once the spread is above a certain rate, any further increase becomes negligible in terms of individual risk.

With both covid and flu, it's pretty much inevitable that we're all going to catch them eventually (vaccine or not) - not if, but when. So what matters, is what's the risk when you do catch it.

Really?
Did you catch flu last year? And the year before, and every other year?

I'll be amazed if the majority of people over 25yrs old haven't had the flu at some point or other in the past decade.

From the US CDC website...

"A paper published in CID found that between 3% and 11% of the U.S. population gets infected and develops flu symptoms each year. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm "

When you have very common diseases, the issue for individuals is not how likely am I to get it, but rather how serious is it likely to be when I do get it.

[Dod101]

I can say that I have had no flu symptoms for the last decade and for some time before that. I am well over 25.

Dod

[onthemove]

I can say that I have had no flu symptoms for the last decade and for some time before that. I am well over 25.

Dod

Majority is not the same as "all".

Equally, while some people may have been lucky not to get it at all, it's quite likely a reasonable number will have also caught it twice (or more).

That's the nature of statistics.

A virus infecting 10% of people each year, doesn't mean 100% will have caught it in 10yrs.

But it does mean that an expectation of a majority of people being infected over a 10 yrs period is quite a reasonable assumption.

(Much like some of us ( ) are unlucky enough to win prizes on the premium bonds less frequently than the statistics would suggest that we should for our level of holding, and some other lucky people win more often than the statistics would suggest they should)

[tjh290633]

I can say that I have had no flu symptoms for the last decade and for some time before that. I am well over 25.

Dod

I have had flu once in my 88 years, when I caught it in the USA and it developed on the flight from Detroit to London. I have not had it since, and that was between 40 and 50 years ago. My opinion is that most case of flu are little more than a snivel. If you have had it properly, you know all about it.

I might add that I have never had a flu jab.

TJH

[pje16]

If you have had it properly, you know all about it.
I might add that I have never had a flu jab.
TJH

I can support that as I can remember schooldays when pretty much anyone who had a cold camw back and said it was the flu (it made it sound worse)
A cold make you feel miserable, flu in my case (just the once) made my whole body ache to the extent that bed was ideal for 2 days
I had never had a flu jab until Nov last year (when it was a waste of time as lockdown rules meant that the annual flu epidemic predicted by lots of the media was never going to happen), but they were offering pneumonia jab at the same time, and for most people that is a once in lifetime jab (for some it needs repeating after 5 years)

[Dod101]

I can say that I have had no flu symptoms for the last decade and for some time before that. I am well over 25.

Dod

Majority is not the same as "all".

Equally, while some people may have been lucky not to get it at all, it's quite likely a reasonable number will have also caught it twice (or more).

That's the nature of statistics.

A virus infecting 10% of people each year, doesn't mean 100% will have caught it in 10yrs.

But it does mean that an expectation of a majority of people being infected over a 10 yrs period is quite a reasonable assumption.

(Much like some of us ( ) are unlucky enough to win prizes on the premium bonds less frequently than the statistics would suggest that we should for our level of holding, and some other lucky people win more often than the statistics would suggest they should)

Indeed. I do so wish you would not give me very basic explanations of the meaning of expressions. I am quite familiar with statistics and the meaning of the word majority. I doubt very much that the majority of people have caught flu at least once in the last decade. Flu is not the same thing as a sore throat.

Dod

[dealtn]

Indeed. I do so wish you would not give me very basic explanations of the meaning of expressions. I am quite familiar with statistics and the meaning of the word majority. I doubt very much that the majority of people have caught flu at least once in the last decade. Flu is not the same thing as a sore throat.

Dod

It would be a meaningful comparison if we had mass testing for flu, as well as for Covid.

Very many of the people testing positive for Covid are without symptoms, or have very mild symptoms. A large number wouldn't even consider themselves ill. Flu however tends to be only reported by those that are ill, and mostly ill enough to go to a GP or referred to hospital. Is it possible to have flu, but not present as ill?

Unless you are comparing like for like I would be hesitant to draw any meaningful comparison between the two.

[Dod101]

Only one poster has so far claimed a comparison between Covid and flu and I think his comments are probably best ignored because as dealtn says, there is simply no meaningful comparison to be had between the two. I have no expectation of catching Covid. I have been double vaccinated and will be in line for a booster jab in the autumn along with my flu jab. I may well catch Covid but I will take precautions, unlike flu where I simply ignore the chance.

Dod

[Lootman]

I took a train from Cardiff to Bristol this morning. The rules have not changed in Wales and everyone at Cardiff Central wore a face covering.

Arriving at Bristol Temple Meads I would say about 50% were wearing face coverings and 50% not. Today's easing has certainly been noticed by many people.

The train was crowded and most people wore masks on the train. They did not remove them when we went under the Severn. Whereas Bristol TM is a fairly open station with lots of fresh air. So maybe people really are "using their judgement"?

[onthemove]

I have no expectation of catching Covid. I have been double vaccinated and will be in line for a booster jab in the autumn along with my flu jab.

From a BBC article entitled.. "Why it's time to think differently about Covid"...

[My bold]

""Covid will never go away," says Prof Paul Hunter, from the University of East Anglia. "It's inevitable that we're going to catch it repeatedly for the rest of our lives, whether we have had the vaccine or not. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57678942"

From the same article...

"Flu alone killed more than 20,000 people in England in the winter of 2017-18. There was no talk of the need to introduce restrictions or curtail freedoms then. "That is the context we need to start seeing Covid in," says Prof Robert Dingwall, a sociologist at Nottingham Trent University."

[1nvest]

Only one poster has so far claimed a comparison between Covid and flu and I think his comments are probably best ignored because as dealtn says, there is simply no meaningful comparison to be had between the two.

True. My 89 year old mother contracted Covid, barely even a snivel. I'd be far more concerned if she were to contract the flu.

[Mike4]

Only one poster has so far claimed a comparison between Covid and flu and I think his comments are probably best ignored because as dealtn says, there is simply no meaningful comparison to be had between the two.

True. My 89 year old mother contracted Covid, barely even a snivel. I'd be far more concerned if she were to contract the flu.

A close friend of mine's mother also contracted Covid. 89 and otherwise fit and healthy, died two weeks later.

[1nvest]

Sadly some will die from Covid or flu.

2018 November press report ...

More than 50,000 excess deaths were recorded across England and Wales last winter, official figures show.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... break.html

... and that's for a long term known and vaccinated against flu condition. Covid is now better understood as are treatments and vaccines. In its first year when best choice treatments were less understood and there was no vaccine yes there were 100K+ deaths. Forward time it may compare to flu. At present 40 deaths/day type rates, 15,000/year that would be considerably lower than a bad flu year.

It's here to stay and just yet another risk we have to bear. Sooner or later each and everyone is likely to contract it. Some predict that this could be a bad year for flu, we've never locked-down due to such risks AFAIK.

[Dod101]

I have no expectation of catching Covid. I have been double vaccinated and will be in line for a booster jab in the autumn along with my flu jab.

From a BBC article entitled.. "Why it's time to think differently about Covid"...

[My bold]

""Covid will never go away," says Prof Paul Hunter, from the University of East Anglia. "It's inevitable that we're going to catch it repeatedly for the rest of our lives, whether we have had the vaccine or not. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57678942"

From the same article...

"Flu alone killed more than 20,000 people in England in the winter of 2017-18. There was no talk of the need to introduce restrictions or curtail freedoms then. "That is the context we need to start seeing Covid in," says Prof Robert Dingwall, a sociologist at Nottingham Trent University."

I have no idea of the credentials of the authors and have no idea if 'we will catch it repeatedly' or not or indeed what the implications are if we do.

As far as flu is concerned yes I absolutely agree and it is why I said probably on another thread (I do not remember) that it may be time for the BBC to stop reporting the stats on Covid. A time will come when we need to do that; it is just a matter of when.

I was accused of being totalitarian!

Dod

[Dod101]

Only one poster has so far claimed a comparison between Covid and flu and I think his comments are probably best ignored because as dealtn says, there is simply no meaningful comparison to be had between the two.

True. My 89 year old mother contracted Covid, barely even a snivel. I'd be far more concerned if she were to contract the flu.

A close friend of mine's mother also contracted Covid. 89 and otherwise fit and healthy, died two weeks later.

And of course could have died from anything at that age. I have told my family that if I am lucky enough to live until 85 (or 89), do not fuss about what I die from after that age; I would probably have died from something anyway. Plus of course it will save on fees for a nursing home and all the anguish that normally goes with that.

Dod

[Mike4]

True. My 89 year old mother contracted Covid, barely even a snivel. I'd be far more concerned if she were to contract the flu.

A close friend of mine's mother also contracted Covid. 89 and otherwise fit and healthy, died two weeks later.

And of course could have died from anything at that age. I have told my family that if I am lucky enough to live until 85 (or 89), do not fuss about what I die from after that age; I would probably have died from something anyway. Plus of course it will save on fees for a nursing home and all the anguish that normally goes with that.

Dod

I'll tell her you said so. Should make her feel less grief.

[Dod101]

A close friend of mine's mother also contracted Covid. 89 and otherwise fit and healthy, died two weeks later.

And of course could have died from anything at that age. I have told my family that if I am lucky enough to live until 85 (or 89), do not fuss about what I die from after that age; I would probably have died from something anyway. Plus of course it will save on fees for a nursing home and all the anguish that normally goes with that.

Dod

I'll tell her you said so. Should make her feel less grief.

Yes do so and tell her Dod said it.

Dod

[Sunnypad]

So....July 19th went as those of us labelled "conspiracy theorists" said it would.

[swill453]

So....July 19th went as those of us labelled "conspiracy theorists" said it would.

Specifically?...

Scott.