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July 19th

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Itsallaguess
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Re: July 19th

#427790

Postby Itsallaguess » July 15th, 2021, 6:59 am

redsturgeon wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:
Any idea of his vaccination status John?

He sounds old enough to be eligible, but it's not clear if he'd taken up the offer or not, or where he might have been in terms of timescales etc. if he had...


He'd just had his second jab on Monday.


Thanks - hopefully he'll be able to avoid the worst of it then, and perhaps those he's been in contact with will also only pick up a relatively minor infection, if at all..

It does clearly spell out the need for continued personal vigilance, however, and for you to say that he's 'been in close proximity to 35 people' on the day that you've seen him seems to suggest a level of personal responsibility that's disappointing for those around him...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: July 19th

#427792

Postby redsturgeon » July 15th, 2021, 7:19 am

Itsallaguess wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:
Any idea of his vaccination status John?

He sounds old enough to be eligible, but it's not clear if he'd taken up the offer or not, or where he might have been in terms of timescales etc. if he had...


He'd just had his second jab on Monday.


Thanks - hopefully he'll be able to avoid the worst of it then, and perhaps those he's been in contact with will also only pick up a relatively minor infection, if at all..

It does clearly spell out the need for continued personal vigilance, however, and for you to say that he's 'been in close proximity to 35 people' on the day that you've seen him seems to suggest a level of personal responsibility that's disappointing for those around him...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


This is the crux of the matter for me. Clearly everyone has their own attitude towards risk. This guy is an intelligent entrepreneur who understands the risks but also is constantly interacting with people in his business dealings. These are the people that the country needs in order to keep the economy going. However he clearly has indulged in some risky marginal behaviours such as the trip to Wembley and he was booked to go to Goodwood this weekend...that will not be happening now.

I saw him on Thursday, inside the office building without a mask, I was wearing a mask and kept my distance, at least 3 metres and was in his vicinity for perhaps two minutes. We spoke briefly. My attitude to risk is more cautious than his. My intention is to avoid situations that are risky while still going about business as usual, this is relatively easy for me.

I will not be changing my behaviours at all after July 19th based on the relaxing of government regulations. My behaviours will be decided by my own level of risk ,I am 65, double vaxxed but my antibody count is not as high as I'd like. I will be closely monitoring the case rate in the local environment and as the case rate falls then I may relax my guard.

John

Itsallaguess
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Re: July 19th

#427794

Postby Itsallaguess » July 15th, 2021, 7:26 am

redsturgeon wrote:
This guy is an intelligent entrepreneur who understands the risks but also is constantly interacting with people in his business dealings. These are the people that the country needs in order to keep the economy going. However he clearly has indulged in some risk marginal behaviours such as the trip to Wembley and he was booked to go to Goodwood this weekend...that will not be happening now.

I saw him on Thursday, inside the office building without a mask, I was wearing a mask and kept my distance, at least 3 metres and was in his vicinity for perhaps two minutes. We spoke briefly. My attitude to risk is more cautious than his. My intention is to avoid situations that are risky while still going about business as usual, this is relatively easy for me.

I will not be changing my behaviours at all after July 19th based on the relaxing of government regulations. My behaviours will be decided by my own level of risk, I am 65, double vaxxed but my antibody count is not as high as I'd like. I will be closely monitoring the case rate in the local environment and as the case rate falls then I may relax my guard.


I think most sensible people will be following your approach - I certainly will be myself.

I also think to a large degree, and for the vast majority of individuals, risk can be judged and mitigated appropriately in most situations.

It seems that this guy was operating outside even the current guidance, and it's an unfortunate fact that you can't 100% legislate for idiots...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: July 19th

#427799

Postby 77ss » July 15th, 2021, 8:30 am

onthemove wrote:....
A large part of the population (not just on this board) seem to have completely lost all sense of perspective.

People's fears and hysterias in relation to covid seem to have lost all perspective in relation to the real risks we were taking every day, all the time pre- sars-cov-2.....



Well said!

Not aided by incessant propaganda from the media/government and companies trying to make a quick buck. All aimed at keeping people fearful.

A bit of fear is healthy, too much is damaging.

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Re: July 19th

#427801

Postby Lootman » July 15th, 2021, 8:42 am

77ss wrote:
onthemove wrote:....A large part of the population (not just on this board) seem to have completely lost all sense of perspective.

People's fears and hysterias in relation to covid seem to have lost all perspective in relation to the real risks we were taking every day, all the time pre- sars-cov-2.....

Well said! Not aided by incessant propaganda from the media/government and companies trying to make a quick buck. All aimed at keeping people fearful.

A bit of fear is healthy, too much is damaging.

Not to mention those businesses and entities that are loving the fact that Covid provides cover for providing fewer services. Including banks and indeed our own government.

It's disturbing to think that there are people and interests very vested in keeping Covid on the front page. Never waste a good crisis.

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Re: July 19th

#427829

Postby jfgw » July 15th, 2021, 11:03 am

redsturgeon wrote:Not sure that referring to face masks as "face nappies" is consistent with taking a dispassionate view .

John


I was thinking they might be face coverings for people who talk $#!t.


Julian F. G. W.

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Re: July 19th

#427842

Postby Mike4 » July 15th, 2021, 11:50 am

77ss wrote:
onthemove wrote:....
A large part of the population (not just on this board) seem to have completely lost all sense of perspective.

People's fears and hysterias in relation to covid seem to have lost all perspective in relation to the real risks we were taking every day, all the time pre- sars-cov-2.....



Well said!

Not aided by incessant propaganda from the media/government and companies trying to make a quick buck. All aimed at keeping people fearful.

A bit of fear is healthy, too much is damaging.



On another thread I commented on someone dividing other posters into one of two camps. I'm going to do that now myself. I observe there are two types of poster on the subject of Covid restrictions:

1) Those who see the restrictions as being designed for their personal benefit, i.e. to keep them 'safe' from infection

2) Those who regard the restrictions as being designed to suppress coronavirus from increasing exponentially, which it tends to do without intervention.

I think people who object so strongly to face coverings calling them things like 'face nappies' tend to egocentricity and find it difficult to see the bigger picture.

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Re: July 19th

#427855

Postby dealtn » July 15th, 2021, 12:45 pm

Mike4 wrote:
1) Those who see the restrictions as being designed for their personal benefit, i.e. to keep them 'safe' from infection

2) Those who regard the restrictions as being designed to suppress coronavirus from increasing exponentially, which it tends to do without intervention.



Most would feel I think that category 2 is a more natural home, and I don't disagree.

However category 2 appears also to be divided into 2 camps.

1) This exponential nature exists forever.

2) This exponential nature has a way of changing and dying out as the number of people either having it, or being vaccinated, increases "herd immunity" as individual and community anti-body presence rises dramatically.

Again category 2 is the more realistic position to take. Which just leaves discussion about whether we are not yet at, or beyond, the point where individual and collective behaviour can change, and the relaxation of authority mandated restrictions can lift, and at what scale and pace.

These are legitimate debates I would suggest.

Those in category 1, or in my initial category 2, but subset 1, are probably beyond reasonable sensible debate.

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Re: July 19th

#427943

Postby XFool » July 15th, 2021, 10:17 pm

onthemove wrote:A large part of the population (not just on this board) seem to have completely lost all sense of perspective.

Ironically, the very hysteria that we are seeing at the minute with so many still wanting to legally mandate face nappies, in itself shows how the population is adapting their behaviour. The very fact that there are so many hysterical people demanding mandatory face nappies, shows that if anything, the general public would be quite likely to over-react if they were given responsibility without legal compulsion.

It was that use of the term "face nappies" that lost it for me. Sounds more like a political rant than a reasoned argument.

onthemove wrote:But as always, those lockdown fanatics will just dismiss it, and it won't take long for someone to conflate them with Trump and Bolsonario, and round the loop we go again...

"lockdown fanatics" - Yes, there are definitely some of those around. From past experience they can be found living here: https://lockdownsceptics.org

My opinion? In a pandemic, shouting politics at it won't work.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cnut_the_Great#The_story_of_Cnut_and_the_waves

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Re: July 19th

#428302

Postby ursaminortaur » July 17th, 2021, 3:49 pm

Two days to go and health secretary Sajid Javid tests positive and has to self isolate.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jul/17/sajid-javid-uk-health-secretary-tests-positive-for-covid

The UK health secretary, Sajid Javid, has tested positive for coronavirus and has mild symptoms, he has said.

In a video posted on Twitter on Saturday, Javid wrote: “This morning I tested positive for Covid. I’m waiting for my PCR result, but thankfully I have had my jabs and symptoms are mild.”

Javid got the positive test from a lateral flow test he took after feeling “a bit groggy” on Friday night. He said he was self-isolating at home with his family.

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Re: July 19th

#428363

Postby 1nvest » July 18th, 2021, 12:59 am

Of the 45 million population in England, the ONS estimated back in January that 15.3% had had Covid, 6.9 million. 6+ months on and that might have perhaps risen to 33%.

Moderator Message:
Edited to remove political content

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Re: July 19th

#428475

Postby zico » July 18th, 2021, 1:24 pm

On Freedom Day, the double-vaccinated Health Secretary has caught Covid, the Prime Minister and the Chancellor are self-isolating.
If only there was some kind of a sign to let us know whether or not we're doing the right thing!

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Re: July 19th

#428476

Postby Nimrod103 » July 18th, 2021, 1:28 pm

zico wrote:On Freedom Day, the double-vaccinated Health Secretary has caught Covid, the Prime Minister and the Chancellor are self-isolating.
If only there was some kind of a sign to let us know whether or not we're doing the right thing!


None of whom have actually got sick, at least only sick in the sense of just having a bit of an off day (in the case of the Health Secretary). It suggests we are doing the right thing. And especially that we are building all this strong immunity in the population during the Summer, much better than trying the same in the Winter.

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Re: July 19th

#428539

Postby Gersemi » July 18th, 2021, 5:27 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
None of whom have actually got sick, at least only sick in the sense of just having a bit of an off day (in the case of the Health Secretary). It suggests we are doing the right thing. And especially that we are building all this strong immunity in the population during the Summer, much better than trying the same in the Winter.


My impression is that most people in the early stages of Covid have very mild symptoms. Some people recover fairly quickly, others get worse. In other words we don't know how bad Sajid Javid's illness will be yet (remember when Boris Johnson caught Covid? He wasn't admitted to hospital for several days after testing positive). Of course as he has been doubled jabbed we would expect his symptoms to be mild, but I know several double jabbed people who have subsequently caught Covid who have been quite ill. One was admitted to hospital (but only for a very short time).

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Re: July 19th

#428683

Postby DrFfybes » July 19th, 2021, 8:45 am

Nimrod103 wrote:
zico wrote:On Freedom Day, the double-vaccinated Health Secretary has caught Covid, the Prime Minister and the Chancellor are self-isolating.
If only there was some kind of a sign to let us know whether or not we're doing the right thing!


None of whom have actually got sick, at least only sick in the sense of just having a bit of an off day (in the case of the Health Secretary). It suggests we are doing the right thing. And especially that we are building all this strong immunity in the population during the Summer, much better than trying the same in the Winter.


My mum actually wants to try a care home for a week or 2. We haven't been able to do this easily as the one she wants quarantines new arrivals. This all changes today so she booked in to go on Weds.

In a cruel twist of fate on Friday 2 carers in there tested positive, so the home is locked down and banning visits. I suggested visitors tested on arrival weren't the problem, perhaps they should test staff on arrival each day. Apparently that isn't practical.

In another twist my planned collection of my Uncle from his McCarthy Stone complex was stopped as they have also had an outbreak, with one death although it is unclear if the death was related to the infection or how they discovered it.

Both had managed to remain Covid free until now.

I am struggling to rationalise what I know and what I want. I know that at some point restrictions have to come off, and that means I will be exposed and probably catch Covid, hopefully in a mild form as a double vacinee. However what I want is not to catch it so I don't put my mum at risk. Obviously I can mitigate my own exposure, but cannot control the 4 different carers, hairdresser, nail girl, and neighbours that see her.


Paul

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Re: July 19th

#428744

Postby Gersemi » July 19th, 2021, 11:34 am

DrFfybes wrote:
I am struggling to rationalise what I know and what I want. I know that at some point restrictions have to come off, and that means I will be exposed and probably catch Covid, hopefully in a mild form as a double vacinee. However what I want is not to catch it so I don't put my mum at risk. Obviously I can mitigate my own exposure, but cannot control the 4 different carers, hairdresser, nail girl, and neighbours that see her.

Paul


I think this is roughly how most people think. The whole debate is portrayed as a battle between those who want safety at all costs and those who want to get back to normal without any restrictions regardless of the health costs. But in reality most people would like to do some things very much, but accept that some restictions should remain to limit the spread. The only problem is we all want the things we want to do (or need to do ie work) to be allowed and other things/people to be restricted!

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Re: July 19th

#428773

Postby onthemove » July 19th, 2021, 1:02 pm

DrFfybes wrote:I am struggling to rationalise what I know and what I want. I know that at some point restrictions have to come off, and that means I will be exposed and probably catch Covid, hopefully in a mild form as a double vacinee. However what I want is not to catch it so I don't put my mum at risk. Obviously I can mitigate my own exposure, but cannot control the 4 different carers, hairdresser, nail girl, and neighbours that see her.


By 'cannot control', I presume we're not therefore talking power of attorney or anything like that.

In which case, it's for your mum to decide what risks she wants to take. Does she trust the carers, hairdressers, nail girl, etc.

If she doesn't trust them, it's up to her to either ask them if they wouldn't mind taking more precautions, or requesting a different hairdresser, nail girl, etc, or if she still isn't happy with the risk, then even potentially foregoing each of the above.

Of course she can ask the neighbour to mask up, but she needs to realise that the neighbour might not want to. If so, then she'll need to weigh up whether seeing the neighbour is worth the risk or not.

Inevitably, there will be differences between people, and this is likely to break some friendships for people. Some shops will lose customers, some might gain the customers other lose.

For example, personally, I'm waiting to see what stance Tesco takes... if one of the other local big supermarkets doesn't mandate masks, but Tescos does, I'll seriously consider switching... it's not that I 'deny covid', I just make a point of shopping at quieter times (9pm+) where I can go round the shop while keeping a good distance from everyone else, and would prefer to do that than wear a mask.

These are decisions that we all will need to make ourselves.

But let's not put it out of perspective. Covid wasn't seriously worse than the flu even before the vaccines - we weren't talking ebola - and now with the vaccines we are in a better position than we are each winter with the flu.

So we need to be carefully to keep things in perspective.

I'll admit, instinctively I'm a little nervous... who wouldn't be... I've never had covid before (that I know of)... but rationally, I was already only borderline lower risk (1 in 1000 chance of death) from age / health without a vaccine, and wasn't too concerned of covid as a result, and I've now had 1 jab already which should now have lowered that risk further... a couple of weeks after the 1st jab of most of the vaccines seems to largely remove the risk of hospitalisation and death. So rationally, I shouldn't be too worried. But instinctively, I still feel a little apprehensive at the thought of getting covid... but realistically, it's inevitable.

The covid R rate, even with the vaccines is so high, that each of us are not realistically going to be able to avoid it.

I saw a stat yesterday from someone arguing that you should still wear face masks. They gave the stats that masks reduce transmission by an estimated range of 10% to 25% - not sure what their source was, but they were arguing pro mask. But let's get real, with the R ratio of covid, if masks only prevent 10% of infection, that's not going to make any meaningful difference to the overall picture.

Let's get real ... people like my mum who are avid mask wearers, seem to think their fabric (not even medical) mask will protect them, so much so that they now walk closely past groups of people without a care in the world. Yet at a 10% effectiveness, that means you'd still get infected on 9 out of the 10 occasions that you would have got infected without a mask.

Seriously, if you're still going to get infected on 9 out of the 10 times vs not wearing a mask, you'd be better not wearing a mask and being more conscious of who you go near! I think masks are giving many of the wearers a false sense of security. Even Sadiq Kahn from what I saw of him being interviewed on TV the other day, admitted the idea of enforcing masks on transport was as much about just 'reassuring' people than anything else.

Anyway, even with vaccines, I saw some scientists the other day suggesting herd immunity isn't going to be realistic. With the high R number of the latest variants, it doesn't take much of a drop in vaccine efficacy over time to fall below the herd immunity threshold.

Their view, was that the protection is going to come through tolerance, initially initially the vaccines, then followed by repeated infection building and maintaining further tolerance. Much like catching a cold.

If you've had both jabs, then it's now time for the leap of faith. Like a child jumping into water the first time, or stepping out onto a glass platform.

Yes, you're going to be hesitant, that's human nature. But sometimes, you've just got to have faith.

And one final thought... 18 months ago, most scientists were cautioning that there's no guarantee a vaccine would even be possible, let alone multiple vaccines at the very top end of possible vaccine efficacy.

Just imagine the conversations we'd be having now if the vaccines hadn't worked and were showing no signs of working! :o

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Re: July 19th

#428774

Postby murraypaul » July 19th, 2021, 1:08 pm

onthemove wrote:But let's not put it out of perspective. Covid wasn't seriously worse than the flu even before the vaccines


There was a point in February where more than 40% of all deaths in every age band 55-60 and above were Covid-related (from death certificate, not deaths within 28 days), and close to 30% of all deaths in every age band 30-35 and above.

To put it more simply: Yes it was.

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Re: July 19th

#428776

Postby onthemove » July 19th, 2021, 1:20 pm

murraypaul wrote:
onthemove wrote:But let's not put it out of perspective. Covid wasn't seriously worse than the flu even before the vaccines


There was a point in February where more than 40% of all deaths in every age band 55-60 and above were Covid-related (from death certificate, not deaths within 28 days), and close to 30% of all deaths in every age band 30-35 and above.

To put it more simply: Yes it was.


That's not a meaningful comparison, because it tells you nothing about the individual person risk from a single infection.

All your figures tell you is that a lot of people got covid at the same time. Which is perhaps not surprising, as Covid has a higher "R" rate than the flu.

Your numbers don't tell you what the fatality rate would have been if the same number (and demographic) of people had caught the flu in the same time frame.

In terms of individual risk - what we each should be most concerned about as an individual - is what is the risk to me if I catch it.

With both covid and flu, it's pretty much inevitable that we're all going to catch them eventually (vaccine or not) - not if, but when. So what matters, is what's the risk when you do catch it.

Looking at proportion of deaths on an arbitrarily selected date tells you nothing of the nature of that risk.

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Re: July 19th

#428782

Postby murraypaul » July 19th, 2021, 1:42 pm

onthemove wrote:All your figures tell you is that a lot of people got covid at the same time. Which is perhaps not surprising, as Covid has a higher "R" rate than the flu.


Yes, which makes it a lot more dangerous. Or, in your words, 'seriously worse'.

With both covid and flu, it's pretty much inevitable that we're all going to catch them eventually (vaccine or not) - not if, but when. So what matters, is what's the risk when you do catch it.


Really?
Did you catch flu last year? And the year before, and every other year?


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