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Learning to live with tigers

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
1nvest
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Re: Learning to live with tigers

#425406

Postby 1nvest » July 7th, 2021, 6:57 am

zico wrote:
Sorcery wrote:Your tiger analogy fails for me because it ignores what & how we eat (earn money) while hiding from tigers. Many small business particularly in hospitality are on a knife edge. For many tigers are less of a threat.
When lockdown was first introduced, I was utterly flabergasted that this was considered the best option. I accepted it eventually but with 86% having had at least one vaccination, to me now is the time to try to relax restrictions.


You're right that lockdowns are definitely not the best option.
The best option is to be alert to the coming threat of tigers, by learning from what's happening in other countries, then quickly build very high and very secure fences to keep the tigers out, and have the fences well patrolled so the tigers can't ever enter your country. That way, nobody needs to hide away in lockdowns, and the economy can carry on virtually as normal. Win-win all round.
That's what countries like New Zealand and Vietnam did. Very secure borders, so very limited lockdowns, and life goes on as normal for people within the country.

Lockdowns are an admission of failure to act early and decisively. Delaying lockdowns when that's the only option left demonstrates failure to accept the realities of exponential growth.

A factor is that repeated governments see GDP expansion by population expansion as being 'good' whilst in reality that just lowers GDP per capita and induces inefficiencies (congestion/surplus citizens). I recall as a child where to bring a tiger or other pet into the country it first had to be quarantined - assessed for its risk to the population. It's only in more recent decades that such policies/practices have been thrown out. The #1 priority for any government should be the defence of the realm from all known and unknown risks/threats. Treasoness that this government has failed so massively on that front and rightfully they should be tied to traitors gate, the tide permitted to do its job, and their heads placed on spikes for all to see as a reminder of how their treachery was the cause of so many deaths.

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Re: Learning to live with tigers

#425410

Postby Lootman » July 7th, 2021, 7:17 am

zico wrote:[The best option is to be alert to the coming threat of tigers, by learning from what's happening in other countries, then quickly build very high and very secure fences to keep the tigers out, and have the fences well patrolled so the tigers can't ever enter your country.

That is or was a luxury reserved for those nations that were lucky enough to be one of the later countries to see cases, probably because of remoteness and lack of international transit, e.g. New Zealand.

It did not and could not help the first few dozen countries to become infected, nor those countries which are effectively a major international transport and trade hub such as the UK. By the time we realised there was a problem (March 2020 or so) it was too late to pull up the drawbridge, if that were ever an option for a country like the UK anyway.

In fact in March 2020 there were hundreds of thousands of British residents overseas, possibly millions. They all had to be re-admitted, and you quite simply cannot quarantine that many people.

Given that, lockdown and vaccination was the right choice for the UK, just as it might have been the wrong choice in some other very different places.

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Re: Learning to live with tigers

#425412

Postby servodude » July 7th, 2021, 7:22 am

Only Australia who isolated managed to escape


It didn't escape because they (were) isolated; it was however quite well mitigated
It broke out in Melbourne in late 1919 with returning service men and spread quite widely
- ultimately killing ~15k in their population of 5M

There's a bit of a permanent exhibition at the Heidelberg Repat about it if you're ever in the area (it was one of their main concerns when it was built)

I know you're itching to stop people being allowed in - but given the posts I've seen pulled recently it's not really for epidemiology is it? ;)

-sd

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Re: Learning to live with tigers

#425448

Postby zico » July 7th, 2021, 9:54 am

Lootman wrote:
zico wrote:[The best option is to be alert to the coming threat of tigers, by learning from what's happening in other countries, then quickly build very high and very secure fences to keep the tigers out, and have the fences well patrolled so the tigers can't ever enter your country.

That is or was a luxury reserved for those nations that were lucky enough to be one of the later countries to see cases, probably because of remoteness and lack of international transit, e.g. New Zealand.

It did not and could not help the first few dozen countries to become infected, nor those countries which are effectively a major international transport and trade hub such as the UK. By the time we realised there was a problem (March 2020 or so) it was too late to pull up the drawbridge, if that were ever an option for a country like the UK anyway.

In fact in March 2020 there were hundreds of thousands of British residents overseas, possibly millions. They all had to be re-admitted, and you quite simply cannot quarantine that many people.

Given that, lockdown and vaccination was the right choice for the UK, just as it might have been the wrong choice in some other very different places.


Vietnam is right next to China and has a lot of trade with it. They would have been amongst the first nations to see cases, but they took very early decisive action.
Experts in the UK realised there was a problem well before March 2020. Non-experts in the UK realised there was a problem before 1st March.
Of course you can quarantine millions of people - in fact that's the government plan for August when 10 million people will be expected to self-isolate.
But we didn't even ask returning UK nationals to self-isolate (apart from a couple of coachloads from Wuhan) we just let them walk in and mingle.


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