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The dash for herd immunity

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Mike4
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The dash for herd immunity

#425380

Postby Mike4 » July 6th, 2021, 11:10 pm

So, as first called here by Julian, it appears the government have decided to go for maximum spread of infection this summer in a bid to reach herd immunity before winter arrives and infections results in sicker people, without actually saying so.

Dr John's video today says broadly the same as Julian.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLwn3CM ... hnCampbell

So England (dunno about the rest of the UK) embarks on a massive experiment, where all those not vaccinated so far are intended to get infected ASAP. "A brave decision Minister", as Sir Humphrey would probably have said.

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Re: The dash for herd immunity

#425382

Postby servodude » July 6th, 2021, 11:13 pm

Mike4 wrote: "A brave decision Minister", as Sir Humphrey would probably have said.


Sir Humph was referring to a decision that while correct in principle might not be popular
- this might be seen as the converse?

-sd

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Re: The dash for herd immunity

#425385

Postby Mike4 » July 6th, 2021, 11:26 pm

servodude wrote:
Mike4 wrote: "A brave decision Minister", as Sir Humphrey would probably have said.


Sir Humph was referring to a decision that while correct in principle might not be popular
- this might be seen as the converse?

-sd


I'm not sure it isn't actually the correct decision, popular or otherwise.

Everyone at particular risk has been offered the vaccine. Those who are left are mostly children and teenagers who are at low risk of illness, and the refuseniks who have turned down the chance to be 'immunised'. Summer is here when cases are seasonally less serious anyway, and the long term outlook is that everyone not vaccinated will catch it sooner or later, along with 10% of those who have been vaxxed so why not make them get it now and get the economy firing on all cylinders once again...?

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Re: The dash for herd immunity

#425386

Postby servodude » July 6th, 2021, 11:30 pm

Mike4 wrote:
servodude wrote:
Mike4 wrote: "A brave decision Minister", as Sir Humphrey would probably have said.


Sir Humph was referring to a decision that while correct in principle might not be popular
- this might be seen as the converse?

-sd


I'm not sure it isn't actually the correct decision, popular or otherwise.

Everyone at particular risk has been offered the vaccine. Those who are left are mostly children and teenagers who are at low risk of illness, and the refuseniks who have turned down the chance to be 'immunised'. Summer is here when cases are seasonally less serious anyway, and the long term outlook is that everyone not vaccinated will catch it sooner or later, along with 10% of those who have been vaxxed so why not make them get it now and get the economy firing on all cylinders once again...?


Totally agree.

I was just worried about any kids reading who might get the wrong end of Humphrey's stick. ;)

-sd

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Re: The dash for herd immunity

#425407

Postby Lootman » July 7th, 2021, 7:03 am

servodude wrote:
Mike4 wrote: "A brave decision Minister", as Sir Humphrey would probably have said.

Sir Humph was referring to a decision that while correct in principle might not be popular
- this might be seen as the converse?

The problem with the word "correct" is that correctness can only be known after the fact, if the strategy actually worked. And of course you first have to define "worked" there, especially in terms of the other options that could have alternatively been followed. Put another way, "correct" can be seen as subjective, at least at this stage.

Whereas "popular" can at least be measured. You just ask people what they want, rather like we are a democracy. :D

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Re: The dash for herd immunity

#425411

Postby redsturgeon » July 7th, 2021, 7:21 am

Lootman wrote:
servodude wrote:
Mike4 wrote: "A brave decision Minister", as Sir Humphrey would probably have said.

Sir Humph was referring to a decision that while correct in principle might not be popular
- this might be seen as the converse?

The problem with the word "correct" is that correctness can only be known after the fact, if the strategy actually worked. And of course you first have to define "worked" there, especially in terms of the other options that could have alternatively been followed. Put another way, "correct" can be seen as subjective, at least at this stage.

Whereas "popular" can at least be measured. You just ask people what they want, rather like we are a democracy. :D


This is where the tyranny of the majority comes in though and doesn't always choosing "popular" lead to popularism?

John

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Re: The dash for herd immunity

#425414

Postby servodude » July 7th, 2021, 7:28 am

redsturgeon wrote:
Lootman wrote:
servodude wrote:Sir Humph was referring to a decision that while correct in principle might not be popular
- this might be seen as the converse?

The problem with the word "correct" is that correctness can only be known after the fact, if the strategy actually worked. And of course you first have to define "worked" there, especially in terms of the other options that could have alternatively been followed. Put another way, "correct" can be seen as subjective, at least at this stage.

Whereas "popular" can at least be measured. You just ask people what they want, rather like we are a democracy. :D


This is where the tyranny of the majority comes in though and doesn't always choosing "popular" lead to popularism?

John


I thought Jay and Lynn were quite clear about what Hump's "brave" meant
- it was a policy that would be unpopular

Shame that some seem unable to grasp that
- sd

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Re: The dash for herd immunity

#425422

Postby Lootman » July 7th, 2021, 7:56 am

redsturgeon wrote:
Lootman wrote:
servodude wrote:Sir Humph was referring to a decision that while correct in principle might not be popular
- this might be seen as the converse?

The problem with the word "correct" is that correctness can only be known after the fact, if the strategy actually worked. And of course you first have to define "worked" there, especially in terms of the other options that could have alternatively been followed. Put another way, "correct" can be seen as subjective, at least at this stage.

Whereas "popular" can at least be measured. You just ask people what they want, rather like we are a democracy. :D

This is where the tyranny of the majority comes in though and doesn't always choosing "popular" lead to popularism?

I often find that the phrase "the tyranny of the majority" is mostly used by a minority of people. :D

And what is democracy other than an exercise in popularism?

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Re: The dash for herd immunity

#425441

Postby Dod101 » July 7th, 2021, 9:14 am

Returning to the topic, yesterday I had lunch with my 21 year old student grand daughter in a city centre restaurant in Scotland. Infection rates are reported to be high and she says that she knows a lot of people who have tested positive without any symptoms. They are thus not turning up in hospital and feel fine but she says most are following the rules and self isolating (that is the ones she knows) She and her friends have a supply of testing kits and appear to use them regularly. Apart from wearing masks on public transport life seems very normal, although still quieter than usual.

She has had her first jab and is anxious for her second.

Given what she has described I cannot help feeling that, if having a very mild form of Covid helps protect the victim, then going for herd immunity seems the way to go. I doubt though that it would be a popular idea were it to be articulated as such mind you.

She talks of widespread testing at least amongst her contacts and if so that in itself will help account for higher numbers being detected.

Dod

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Re: The dash for herd immunity

#425443

Postby scrumpyjack » July 7th, 2021, 9:23 am

I don’t think there is a policy of aiming for herd immunity, and HMG have denied that there is, it is simply that on balance it is felt better to accept that there will be high rates of covid and some deaths and some serious illness among some young people, than to continue to suffer all the negative effects of lock down. As they have said, we need to learn to live with Covid and it will be a diminishing problem as more people have been vaccinated or have had it and recovered. The hospital admission rate will not be so high as to break the NHS and the death rate will probably be less than flu deaths.

Whilst it is clear that most young people are not badly affected by Covid, there are some who end up with ‘Long Covid’ which whilst not fatal is a serious illness for an indeterminate length of time. So I don’t think it is true to claim that the young are at no risk from Covid.

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Re: The dash for herd immunity

#425454

Postby mc2fool » July 7th, 2021, 10:15 am

scrumpyjack wrote:I don’t think there is a policy of aiming for herd immunity, and HMG have denied that there is...

Well, there is a policy of aiming for herd immunity but that's through the vaccination programme and clearly not the "maximum spread" and "those not vaccinated so far are intended to get infected ASAP" way opined by the OP.

If rapid herd immunity by infection were the policy then the first thing HMG would do is drop all the self isolation rules, but in fact only those double jabbed (and under 18s) won't need to self-isolate if they've been in contact with someone infected, and then only after 16 Aug.

And even then, "If someone gets their second dose just before, or after, the 16th of August, they’ll need to wait until two weeks after they get the second jab to benefit from these new freedoms so the vaccine has time to build the maximum possible protection", and "Anyone who tests positive following the PCR test will still be legally required to self-isolate, irrespective of their vaccination status", which definitely doesn't fit with the opined theory of a policy of herd immunity by infection. :D

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/self-isolation-to-be-eased-for-fully-vaccinated-adults-in-step-4

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Re: The dash for herd immunity

#425458

Postby Arborbridge » July 7th, 2021, 10:21 am

Lootman wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:
Lootman wrote:The problem with the word "correct" is that correctness can only be known after the fact, if the strategy actually worked. And of course you first have to define "worked" there, especially in terms of the other options that could have alternatively been followed. Put another way, "correct" can be seen as subjective, at least at this stage.

Whereas "popular" can at least be measured. You just ask people what they want, rather like we are a democracy. :D

This is where the tyranny of the majority comes in though and doesn't always choosing "popular" lead to popularism?

I often find that the phrase "the tyranny of the majority" is mostly used by a minority of people. :D

And what is democracy other than an exercise in popularism?


The trouble with populism is that it sounds like democracy but isn't, necessarily. In essence it is mob rule rather than democracy, rule by those with the loudest voices and strongest egos rather than by considered argument and then expressing a conclusion via the ballot box.

If you think of the various movements to which we might attach the term "populist" you can see this is true - you don't need me to list them. And they are not typically democractic, far from it. Ironically, most populist movements or regimes are vehicles for one particular loud mouthed or charismatic individual who inspires a mob who then coerces others to follow.

Arb.

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Re: The dash for herd immunity

#425473

Postby Arborbridge » July 7th, 2021, 10:44 am

A guy from some transport organisation expressed the view yesterday tht he wants to see the end of mask wearing because it will encourage people to use buses and trains.

Can this really be true? Frankly, I would have thought the opposite could be true: especially when it comes to the old or vulnerable wanting to come out and spend their saved up pensions :)
I would have been (and will be) far more inclined to travel by bus or train if I had seen more people wearing masks. The fact that many didn't made me use the car as an alternative.

The difficulty I have with Johnson's idea of moving away from legal restriction to allowing people "instead make their own informed decisions about how to manage the virus" is that the other people's decision or lack of it, forces itself upon my own safety. For example, I can decide to waer a mask to protect people around me on a bus, but I cannot do the converse - it is their decision whether they choose to protect me.

This is putting the cart before the horse and goes against most other public health tenets. For example, what would happen if we applied the same idea to smoking in pubs or restaurants? I can guarantee that smokers would not consider my health in the equation or would rationalise the danger as exceedingly small - or at least they never did!

This difficulty arises because we have two ends of the telescope. The government (understandably) is fighting on a war footing and is willing to let a given number of people die or a greater number become quite sick provided they win the war. Like a general who weighs the number of likely deaths in an attack against the benefits of victory.
Whereas at the personal level - the other end of the telescope - we look at the increased possibility of becoming fairly seriously ill naturally with some alarm. This is particularly so for vulnerable people who may now feel they need to opt out of activity more than previously. The mark of a civilisation is how is cares for its vulnerable - we are in danger of forgetting that.

Let's not forget that for an individual who gets covid, the experience can be extremely debilitating even if it is short of a hospital event and not ultimately life threatening. The government (again, rightly) is mainly concerned about hospitalisation, but the individual is concerned about getting the virus and being seriously ill in a more domestic sense.

And the last thing which worries me about the change is schools. Now we will apparently have a view that infections are to be let rip - more or less - but there are many pupils who will suffer badly due to health conditions. My granddaugher (under 18) is an example and has been hospitalised on more than two occasions with acute asthma attacks. If people like this were entitled to a covid jab, that would be one thing, but they aren't and that is a real concern.

Well, that's the end of my musing on this for today.

Arb.

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Re: The dash for herd immunity

#425474

Postby XFool » July 7th, 2021, 10:46 am

scrumpyjack wrote:I don’t think there is a policy of aiming for herd immunity, and HMG have denied that there is...

Just a small fussy point by me, though I think it is a valid one, concerning the use of the term "herd immunity": AFAIK, "herd immunity" is the ONLY way to go with an infectious disease and always has been. There is, in fact, no other way to go...

Rather the point is how "herd immunity" is achieved:

1. By enough people becoming infected and then dying or recovering - natural immunity
2. By enough people receiving vaccination - artificial immunity
3. By a mixture of 1 & 2

Unfortunately, the term "herd immunity" seems to have become publicly associated with a political decision, or policy, to go with option 1. above. I think this is confusing, without clarification of what is meant by the term.

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Re: The dash for herd immunity

#425481

Postby tjh290633 » July 7th, 2021, 10:56 am

Arborbridge wrote:A guy from some transport organisation expressed the view yesterday tht he wants to see the end of mask wearing because it will encourage people to use buses and trains.

Can this really be true? Frankly, I would have thought the opposite could be true: especially when it comes to the old or vulnerable wanting to come out and spend their saved up pensions :)

I would be quite happy travelling on buses or trains without a mask, but I fancy that the Underground is a different kettle of fish. There you are rammed up against people, and cannot avoid breathing expired air.

I am looking forward to the day when I can attend events in London which require travel by train. Some do need an underground trip, but others involve a mainline train and a walk, sometimes a bus ride.

I really do think that the "worried well" are spreading alarm and despondency.

TJH

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Re: The dash for herd immunity

#425495

Postby 88V8 » July 7th, 2021, 11:20 am

tjh290633 wrote:I really do think that the "worried well" are spreading alarm and despondency.

Perhaps it's because they're been 'worried' that they remain well.

Catch me on public transport, no sirree.

V8

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Re: The dash for herd immunity

#425496

Postby XFool » July 7th, 2021, 11:22 am

tjh290633 wrote:I would be quite happy travelling on buses or trains without a mask, but I fancy that the Underground is a different kettle of fish. There you are rammed up against people, and cannot avoid breathing expired air.

I am looking forward to the day when I can attend events in London which require travel by train. Some do need an underground trip, but others involve a mainline train and a walk, sometimes a bus ride.

Leaving aside moving around central London... I am in a relatively fortunate position here. Before COVID-19 I had already abandoned the tube as a way of getting into London - thinking about it, for 'health' reasons! I am able, without too much trouble, to get to Moorgate Station via overground (for most of the way). Less frequent but much less crowded, more relaxed and - the dinger this one - MUCH quieter.

My understanding is, following the opening up of LU to nighttime running, some residents over the route of the Northern Line complained of disturbance to their sleep. LT seem to have cured this issue but at the cost of truly horrendous levels of track noise for passengers at some points in the journey. This was, in my case, literally unbearable - I cannot believe it is even allowed under Health & Safety rules - leading me, eventually, to finally abandon this line as a viable means of transport.

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Re: The dash for herd immunity

#425503

Postby tjh290633 » July 7th, 2021, 11:32 am

88V8 wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:I really do think that the "worried well" are spreading alarm and despondency.

Perhaps it's because they're been 'worried' that they remain well.

If the cap fits, wear it.

TJH

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Re: The dash for herd immunity

#425505

Postby Arborbridge » July 7th, 2021, 11:34 am

tjh290633 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:A guy from some transport organisation expressed the view yesterday tht he wants to see the end of mask wearing because it will encourage people to use buses and trains.

Can this really be true? Frankly, I would have thought the opposite could be true: especially when it comes to the old or vulnerable wanting to come out and spend their saved up pensions :)

I would be quite happy travelling on buses or trains without a mask, but I fancy that the Underground is a different kettle of fish. There you are rammed up against people, and cannot avoid breathing expired air.

I am looking forward to the day when I can attend events in London which require travel by train. Some do need an underground trip, but others involve a mainline train and a walk, sometimes a bus ride.

I really do think that the "worried well" are spreading alarm and despondency.

TJH


I travelled on the tube a short while back, and it was virtually empty at 21.30. Of course, that will all change soon, but it was a pleasant side effect of the current situation.

I walked to Sadlers Wells from Blackfriars to avoid the tube on another occasion and got caught in a rainstorm for my pains. Had a quick dinner in Pizza-Express to avoid it, and found it only had one other diner there at around 19.00.

One of the regrets of a "return to normal" will be the ending of relative peace in some places. And social distancing in venues has been a huge advantage in ensuring a clear view of the stage. Can't have it both ways though! Either we have vibrance or semi-emptyness with no one able to afford to put on events.

Arb.

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Re: The dash for herd immunity

#425514

Postby jfgw » July 7th, 2021, 11:39 am

mc2fool wrote:Well, there is a policy of aiming for herd immunity but that's through the vaccination programme and clearly not the "maximum spread" and "those not vaccinated so far are intended to get infected ASAP" way opined by the OP.

If rapid herd immunity by infection were the policy then the first thing HMG would do is drop all the self isolation rules, but in fact only those double jabbed (and under 18s) won't need to self-isolate if they've been in contact with someone infected, and then only after 16 Aug.


The policy back in March 2020 was herd immunity but protect the NHS. If infection is part of the herd immunity strategy today, it still needs to be governed.

Vaccines may provide more protection than prior infection but a vaccine plus an infection is even better. A vaccine provides zero direct protection to those who do not have it but infection is not voluntary and will immunise many of the refuseniks.

While limited vaccine supply limits the rollout to younger people, there seems to be some hesitancy even in middle age groups. Only about 85% of the 50–54 age group have had a first dose, about 80% of the 45–49 age group, and progressively less for the lower age groups (This graph applies to England).
Image
My graph. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. : https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/

There were signs of herd immunity last November, then the alpha variant (S-gene variant — this is an old graph!) spread and relieved us of the burden of Christmas. The November 5th lockdown was too late to explain the peak:
Image
My graph: data extracted from here, https://twitter.com/The_Soup_Dragon/sta ... 36/photo/1

The delta variant should have fewer necks to sink its teeth into and the long summer days will turn more of it into dust so, hopefully, we will not get another big peak. Cases and hospitalisations are not showing any clear signs of subexponentiality yet though.

(I think vampires are a better analogy than tigers.)


Julian F. G. W.


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