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Vaccinated deaths
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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- Lemon Quarter
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Vaccinated deaths
More vaccinated people are dying of COVID than unvaccinated people, according to a recent report from Public Health England (PHE). The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died within 28 days of a positive COVID test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine.
Re: Vaccinated deaths
.... and this is totally to be expected.
Many more people are vaccinated than unvaccinated - so these numbers are expected (unless you thought vaccines were 100% successful).
The vaccinated population will skew older than the unvaccinated, so these numbers are expected (unless you don't understand how much impact age has on mortality from COVID). This effect will be particularly amplified at the start of the date range (Feb 1st) when the vaccine rollout was still at the much higher age range.
The vaccine takes c. 3 weeks (IIRC) to produce full effectiveness, so being vaccinated yesterday and getting COVID tomorrow is not unexpected in the population, so anyone vaccinated 1-21 June will be at limited benefit.
Many more people are vaccinated than unvaccinated - so these numbers are expected (unless you thought vaccines were 100% successful).
The vaccinated population will skew older than the unvaccinated, so these numbers are expected (unless you don't understand how much impact age has on mortality from COVID). This effect will be particularly amplified at the start of the date range (Feb 1st) when the vaccine rollout was still at the much higher age range.
The vaccine takes c. 3 weeks (IIRC) to produce full effectiveness, so being vaccinated yesterday and getting COVID tomorrow is not unexpected in the population, so anyone vaccinated 1-21 June will be at limited benefit.
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: Vaccinated deaths
richreduk wrote:.... and this is totally to be expected.
Many more people are vaccinated than unvaccinated - so these numbers are expected (unless you thought vaccines were 100% successful).
The vaccinated population will skew older than the unvaccinated, so these numbers are expected (unless you don't understand how much impact age has on mortality from COVID). This effect will be particularly amplified at the start of the date range (Feb 1st) when the vaccine rollout was still at the much higher age range.
The vaccine takes c. 3 weeks (IIRC) to produce full effectiveness, so being vaccinated yesterday and getting COVID tomorrow is not unexpected in the population, so anyone vaccinated 1-21 June will be at limited benefit.
Almost perfect in covering everything. The only thing I would add is to point 2 - the vaccinated population will not only skew older but also skew towards those known to have other clinical vulnerabilities beyond simply age. On the vaccine priority list immediately after the 65 - 70 age group the next group opened up for vaccination was 18 - 64 year olds with pre-existing conditions before it then carried on working down the age bands. I know this because I am in the healthy 60 - 64 age group so I came just behind that very wide age band of all remaining vulnerable adults, not that it mattered much at that time because the government was moving extremely quickly through the categories. I seem to remember it only delayed me getting an appointment for my first dose by a week at most.
- Julian
Re: Vaccinated deaths
Julian wrote:richreduk wrote:.... and this is totally to be expected.
Many more people are vaccinated than unvaccinated - so these numbers are expected (unless you thought vaccines were 100% successful).
The vaccinated population will skew older than the unvaccinated, so these numbers are expected (unless you don't understand how much impact age has on mortality from COVID). This effect will be particularly amplified at the start of the date range (Feb 1st) when the vaccine rollout was still at the much higher age range.
The vaccine takes c. 3 weeks (IIRC) to produce full effectiveness, so being vaccinated yesterday and getting COVID tomorrow is not unexpected in the population, so anyone vaccinated 1-21 June will be at limited benefit.
Almost perfect in covering everything. The only thing I would add is to point 2 - the vaccinated population will not only skew older but also skew towards those known to have other clinical vulnerabilities beyond simply age. On the vaccine priority list immediately after the 65 - 70 age group the next group opened up for vaccination was 18 - 64 year olds with pre-existing conditions before it then carried on working down the age bands. I know this because I am in the healthy 60 - 64 age group so I came just behind that very wide age band of all remaining vulnerable adults, not that it mattered much at that time because the government was moving extremely quickly through the categories. I seem to remember it only delayed me getting an appointment for my first dose by a week at most.
- Julian
Good point and one that I should have remembered as a member of the 18-64 year olds (48) with an underlying condition. I still don't know if was my DVT or singular kidney that bumped me up, but if it was the DVT, then the blood thinners I was on offset a chunk of the AZ blood clot risk too .
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Vaccinated deaths
1nvest wrote:More vaccinated people are dying of COVID than unvaccinated people, according to a recent report from Public Health England (PHE). The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died within 28 days of a positive COVID test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine.
And I'd point out the people who died after one dose would have been more accurately described as "partially-vaccinated".
Presumably they were included in the figures because fewer fully vaccinated have died than the sum of the partially vaccinated and unvaccinated, which makes for a far less attention-grabbing headline.
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- Lemon Slice
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Re: Vaccinated deaths
richreduk wrote:.... and this is totally to be expected.
Did anyone say it isn't?
Another interpretation of the information is that it backs up getting back to normal now.
Even if you let the virus run wild now, with no social distancing, etc, the bulk of deaths, etc, will be from those who have had the vaccine.
So what justification is there for continued caution?
The vaccine is what the vaccine is.
With more deaths in the vaccinated group vs unvaccinated group, it's difficult to see how continued restrictions of any sort could be justifiably mandated.
The vaccine is what the vaccine is - we need to accept this reality and get on with living.
And as vaccines go, the covid vaccines are considered quite some way towards the better end in terms of vaccine efficacy. We lived with diseases before covid where the vaccines offered less protection, for example the flu, and didn't go round with nappies on our faces.
Even the BBC is now pushing the flu comparison. Reminding us that we didn't mask up or distance when flu deaths were at 200+ per day a few years ago.
The news earlier that there have been 100+ cases on HMS Queen Elizabeth, even with all the crew fully vaccinated, is a pretty stark warning that we are going to have to live with continued re-infection with covid. House arrest for anyone who catches it can no longer be justified.
Is it any wonder people are deleting the NHS covid app from their phone en masse.
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Vaccinated deaths
More drivers die in car accidents wearing seat belts than those that don't.
That doesn't mean seat belts are more dangerous, nor that they shouldn't be worn. It is simply a reflection that the vast majority of car drivers, and those that unfortunately have accidents, and those that die, are wearing them, despite that lowering of specific risk.
That doesn't mean seat belts are more dangerous, nor that they shouldn't be worn. It is simply a reflection that the vast majority of car drivers, and those that unfortunately have accidents, and those that die, are wearing them, despite that lowering of specific risk.
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: Vaccinated deaths
dealtn wrote:More drivers die in car accidents wearing seat belts than those that don't.
That doesn't mean seat belts are more dangerous, nor that they shouldn't be worn. It is simply a reflection that the vast majority of car drivers, and those that unfortunately have accidents, and those that die, are wearing them, despite that lowering of specific risk.
Changing the wording to your context ...
The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died were wearing seat belts.
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: Vaccinated deaths
What is to be expected is that people will report the number of cases without reporting the exposure, in this case the fraction of the population that is vaccinated to various degrees.
What is also to be expected is that people who do this will not be slapped down as hard as they should be. And will think even the mildest of rebuke is undeserved, and they will have an entire community that supports this view.
What is also to be expected is that people who do this will not be slapped down as hard as they should be. And will think even the mildest of rebuke is undeserved, and they will have an entire community that supports this view.
Re: Vaccinated deaths
1nvest wrote:dealtn wrote:More drivers die in car accidents wearing seat belts than those that don't.
That doesn't mean seat belts are more dangerous, nor that they shouldn't be worn. It is simply a reflection that the vast majority of car drivers, and those that unfortunately have accidents, and those that die, are wearing them, despite that lowering of specific risk.
Changing the wording to your context ...
The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died were wearing seat belts.
But what is the point you are trying to make from this statistic (in the context of COVID vaccines or seatbelts?).
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Re: Vaccinated deaths
onthemove wrote:With more deaths in the vaccinated group vs unvaccinated group, it's difficult to see how continued restrictions of any sort could be justifiably mandated.
That argument is complete and total rubbish.
A 0% efficient vaccine (a.k.a a placebo) used in 51% of the population meets this condition. So all we had to do is define nitrogen gas as a vaccine and we should have release restrictions in April 2020.
More nuanced a moderately effective vaccine that meet the 50% effective threshold would have been useful in the absence of a better option but would at best justify a moderate reduction in restrictions.
Justification for restriction or no restrictions should be based on absolute numbers not on the relative change from some different condition.
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: Vaccinated deaths
richreduk wrote:1nvest wrote:dealtn wrote:More drivers die in car accidents wearing seat belts than those that don't.
That doesn't mean seat belts are more dangerous, nor that they shouldn't be worn. It is simply a reflection that the vast majority of car drivers, and those that unfortunately have accidents, and those that die, are wearing them, despite that lowering of specific risk.
Changing the wording to your context ...
The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died were wearing seat belts.
But what is the point you are trying to make from this statistic (in the context of COVID vaccines or seatbelts?).
Covid. The point being - you're mixing percentages with actual counts. Of 257 deaths, 163 were vaccinated 94 weren't vaccinated.
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: Vaccinated deaths
Died 'of' Covid or 'with' Covid? Not the same thing, nor is having had one jab or both.
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- Lemon Slice
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Re: Vaccinated deaths
9873210 wrote:onthemove wrote:With more deaths in the vaccinated group vs unvaccinated group, it's difficult to see how continued restrictions of any sort could be justifiably mandated.
That argument is complete and total rubbish.
A 0% efficient vaccine (a.k.a a placebo) used in 51% of the population meets this condition. So all we had to do is define nitrogen gas as a vaccine and we should have release restrictions in April 2020.
More nuanced a moderately effective vaccine that meet the 50% effective threshold would have been useful in the absence of a better option but would at best justify a moderate reduction in restrictions.
Justification for restriction or no restrictions should be based on absolute numbers not on the relative change from some different condition.
You conveniently selected just a subset of my post.
In the part you omitted to include, I pointed out that the current covid vaccines are amongst some of the most effective vaccines in the world, achieving a far better efficacy than anyone had originally dared hope.
So I put it to you that your response is complete rubbish. It is highly unlikely we will get any significant improvement on the existing vaccines.
Your argument about a 0% effective vaccine is complete garbage, as the covid vaccines are highly effective.
Since the current deaths appear to be being driven now by the vaccinated part of the population - that's vaccinated with a very effective vaccine - that's it, this is as good as it's going to get. It's time to get back to normal.
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Re: Vaccinated deaths
1nvest wrote:Covid. The point being - you're mixing percentages with actual counts. Of 257 deaths, 163 were vaccinated 94 weren't vaccinated.
Yes. So what?
I think you think it shows that the vaccines don't work?
To link to another post: viewtopic.php?p=424211#p424211
Back in February 40%+ of all deaths in every age group over 55 listed mentioned Covid on the death certificate.
Now we are down to less than 2% for all of those age groups.
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: Vaccinated deaths
1nvest wrote:Covid hasn't changed the death rate ... still one per person.
Indeed. We are all going to die anyway so why bother with medicine?
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Re: Vaccinated deaths
Mike4 wrote:1nvest wrote:Covid hasn't changed the death rate ... still one per person.
Indeed. We are all going to die anyway so why bother with medicine?
With the move to the Chinese citizenship model, where your freedoms are individual according to all of your past actions/thoughts, indeed why bother.
Come September its looking like only one identified group will be able to partake in social events where there are crowds i.e. must have a Covid passport tick. But with other exemptions for those without that tick do not need to isolate if employed in selective jobs. No doubt with that system in place it will be more extensively and repeatedly refined - until its down to a case by case measure. Perhaps if you didn't vote for A then that bars you from doing P, Q and R. Or posted a 'inappropriate' comment on the TLF bars you from doing X, Y and Z. A transition to where when being asked "what is your view about" any subject you should immediately reference the "correct" reply in order to avoid having privileges removed. Covid is being used as the basis for introduction/implementation of such state controls.
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Vaccinated deaths
Mike4 wrote:1nvest wrote:Covid hasn't changed the death rate ... still one per person.
Indeed. We are all going to die anyway so why bother with medicine?
I think you'll find the average number of deaths per person (for the dead) is slightly greater than one
But if you include the present living in the calculation it's likely around a half
-sd
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Re: Vaccinated deaths
servodude wrote:Mike4 wrote:1nvest wrote:Covid hasn't changed the death rate ... still one per person.
Indeed. We are all going to die anyway so why bother with medicine?
I think you'll find the average number of deaths per person (for the dead) is slightly greater than one
But if you include the present living in the calculation it's likely around a half
-sd
Yes I always find that a curious thing, that the number of souls alive today is roughly equal to the sum of all the souls who have died so far. It seems significant, but I dunno why.
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