Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34, for Donating to support the site

Vaccinated deaths

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Forum rules
This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
1nvest
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4323
Joined: May 31st, 2019, 7:55 pm
Has thanked: 680 times
Been thanked: 1316 times

Vaccinated deaths

#427652

Postby 1nvest » July 14th, 2021, 2:40 pm

More vaccinated people are dying of COVID than unvaccinated people, according to a recent report from Public Health England (PHE). The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died within 28 days of a positive COVID test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine.

richreduk
Posts: 14
Joined: December 5th, 2019, 8:53 am
Has thanked: 6 times
Been thanked: 8 times

Re: Vaccinated deaths

#427654

Postby richreduk » July 14th, 2021, 2:47 pm

.... and this is totally to be expected.

Many more people are vaccinated than unvaccinated - so these numbers are expected (unless you thought vaccines were 100% successful).

The vaccinated population will skew older than the unvaccinated, so these numbers are expected (unless you don't understand how much impact age has on mortality from COVID). This effect will be particularly amplified at the start of the date range (Feb 1st) when the vaccine rollout was still at the much higher age range.

The vaccine takes c. 3 weeks (IIRC) to produce full effectiveness, so being vaccinated yesterday and getting COVID tomorrow is not unexpected in the population, so anyone vaccinated 1-21 June will be at limited benefit.

Julian
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1385
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:58 am
Has thanked: 532 times
Been thanked: 676 times

Re: Vaccinated deaths

#427661

Postby Julian » July 14th, 2021, 3:02 pm

richreduk wrote:.... and this is totally to be expected.

Many more people are vaccinated than unvaccinated - so these numbers are expected (unless you thought vaccines were 100% successful).

The vaccinated population will skew older than the unvaccinated, so these numbers are expected (unless you don't understand how much impact age has on mortality from COVID). This effect will be particularly amplified at the start of the date range (Feb 1st) when the vaccine rollout was still at the much higher age range.

The vaccine takes c. 3 weeks (IIRC) to produce full effectiveness, so being vaccinated yesterday and getting COVID tomorrow is not unexpected in the population, so anyone vaccinated 1-21 June will be at limited benefit.

Almost perfect in covering everything. The only thing I would add is to point 2 - the vaccinated population will not only skew older but also skew towards those known to have other clinical vulnerabilities beyond simply age. On the vaccine priority list immediately after the 65 - 70 age group the next group opened up for vaccination was 18 - 64 year olds with pre-existing conditions before it then carried on working down the age bands. I know this because I am in the healthy 60 - 64 age group so I came just behind that very wide age band of all remaining vulnerable adults, not that it mattered much at that time because the government was moving extremely quickly through the categories. I seem to remember it only delayed me getting an appointment for my first dose by a week at most.

- Julian

richreduk
Posts: 14
Joined: December 5th, 2019, 8:53 am
Has thanked: 6 times
Been thanked: 8 times

Re: Vaccinated deaths

#427664

Postby richreduk » July 14th, 2021, 3:06 pm

Julian wrote:
richreduk wrote:.... and this is totally to be expected.

Many more people are vaccinated than unvaccinated - so these numbers are expected (unless you thought vaccines were 100% successful).

The vaccinated population will skew older than the unvaccinated, so these numbers are expected (unless you don't understand how much impact age has on mortality from COVID). This effect will be particularly amplified at the start of the date range (Feb 1st) when the vaccine rollout was still at the much higher age range.

The vaccine takes c. 3 weeks (IIRC) to produce full effectiveness, so being vaccinated yesterday and getting COVID tomorrow is not unexpected in the population, so anyone vaccinated 1-21 June will be at limited benefit.

Almost perfect in covering everything. The only thing I would add is to point 2 - the vaccinated population will not only skew older but also skew towards those known to have other clinical vulnerabilities beyond simply age. On the vaccine priority list immediately after the 65 - 70 age group the next group opened up for vaccination was 18 - 64 year olds with pre-existing conditions before it then carried on working down the age bands. I know this because I am in the healthy 60 - 64 age group so I came just behind that very wide age band of all remaining vulnerable adults, not that it mattered much at that time because the government was moving extremely quickly through the categories. I seem to remember it only delayed me getting an appointment for my first dose by a week at most.

- Julian


Good point and one that I should have remembered as a member of the 18-64 year olds (48) with an underlying condition. I still don't know if was my DVT or singular kidney that bumped me up, but if it was the DVT, then the blood thinners I was on offset a chunk of the AZ blood clot risk too :).

Mike4
Lemon Half
Posts: 7085
Joined: November 24th, 2016, 3:29 am
Has thanked: 1637 times
Been thanked: 3794 times

Re: Vaccinated deaths

#427667

Postby Mike4 » July 14th, 2021, 3:12 pm

1nvest wrote:More vaccinated people are dying of COVID than unvaccinated people, according to a recent report from Public Health England (PHE). The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died within 28 days of a positive COVID test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine.


And I'd point out the people who died after one dose would have been more accurately described as "partially-vaccinated".

Presumably they were included in the figures because fewer fully vaccinated have died than the sum of the partially vaccinated and unvaccinated, which makes for a far less attention-grabbing headline.

onthemove
Lemon Slice
Posts: 540
Joined: June 24th, 2017, 4:03 pm
Has thanked: 722 times
Been thanked: 471 times

Re: Vaccinated deaths

#427671

Postby onthemove » July 14th, 2021, 3:30 pm

richreduk wrote:.... and this is totally to be expected.


Did anyone say it isn't?

Another interpretation of the information is that it backs up getting back to normal now.

Even if you let the virus run wild now, with no social distancing, etc, the bulk of deaths, etc, will be from those who have had the vaccine.

So what justification is there for continued caution?

The vaccine is what the vaccine is.

With more deaths in the vaccinated group vs unvaccinated group, it's difficult to see how continued restrictions of any sort could be justifiably mandated.

The vaccine is what the vaccine is - we need to accept this reality and get on with living.

And as vaccines go, the covid vaccines are considered quite some way towards the better end in terms of vaccine efficacy. We lived with diseases before covid where the vaccines offered less protection, for example the flu, and didn't go round with nappies on our faces.

Even the BBC is now pushing the flu comparison. Reminding us that we didn't mask up or distance when flu deaths were at 200+ per day a few years ago.

The news earlier that there have been 100+ cases on HMS Queen Elizabeth, even with all the crew fully vaccinated, is a pretty stark warning that we are going to have to live with continued re-infection with covid. House arrest for anyone who catches it can no longer be justified.

Is it any wonder people are deleting the NHS covid app from their phone en masse.

dealtn
Lemon Half
Posts: 6072
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 441 times
Been thanked: 2324 times

Re: Vaccinated deaths

#427679

Postby dealtn » July 14th, 2021, 4:00 pm

More drivers die in car accidents wearing seat belts than those that don't.

That doesn't mean seat belts are more dangerous, nor that they shouldn't be worn. It is simply a reflection that the vast majority of car drivers, and those that unfortunately have accidents, and those that die, are wearing them, despite that lowering of specific risk.

1nvest
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4323
Joined: May 31st, 2019, 7:55 pm
Has thanked: 680 times
Been thanked: 1316 times

Re: Vaccinated deaths

#427683

Postby 1nvest » July 14th, 2021, 4:06 pm

dealtn wrote:More drivers die in car accidents wearing seat belts than those that don't.

That doesn't mean seat belts are more dangerous, nor that they shouldn't be worn. It is simply a reflection that the vast majority of car drivers, and those that unfortunately have accidents, and those that die, are wearing them, despite that lowering of specific risk.

Changing the wording to your context ...

The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died were wearing seat belts.

9873210
Lemon Slice
Posts: 986
Joined: December 9th, 2016, 6:44 am
Has thanked: 226 times
Been thanked: 296 times

Re: Vaccinated deaths

#427685

Postby 9873210 » July 14th, 2021, 4:10 pm

What is to be expected is that people will report the number of cases without reporting the exposure, in this case the fraction of the population that is vaccinated to various degrees.

What is also to be expected is that people who do this will not be slapped down as hard as they should be. And will think even the mildest of rebuke is undeserved, and they will have an entire community that supports this view.

richreduk
Posts: 14
Joined: December 5th, 2019, 8:53 am
Has thanked: 6 times
Been thanked: 8 times

Re: Vaccinated deaths

#427686

Postby richreduk » July 14th, 2021, 4:13 pm

1nvest wrote:
dealtn wrote:More drivers die in car accidents wearing seat belts than those that don't.

That doesn't mean seat belts are more dangerous, nor that they shouldn't be worn. It is simply a reflection that the vast majority of car drivers, and those that unfortunately have accidents, and those that die, are wearing them, despite that lowering of specific risk.

Changing the wording to your context ...

The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died were wearing seat belts.


But what is the point you are trying to make from this statistic (in the context of COVID vaccines or seatbelts?).

9873210
Lemon Slice
Posts: 986
Joined: December 9th, 2016, 6:44 am
Has thanked: 226 times
Been thanked: 296 times

Re: Vaccinated deaths

#427692

Postby 9873210 » July 14th, 2021, 4:23 pm

onthemove wrote:With more deaths in the vaccinated group vs unvaccinated group, it's difficult to see how continued restrictions of any sort could be justifiably mandated.



That argument is complete and total rubbish.

A 0% efficient vaccine (a.k.a a placebo) used in 51% of the population meets this condition. So all we had to do is define nitrogen gas as a vaccine and we should have release restrictions in April 2020.

More nuanced a moderately effective vaccine that meet the 50% effective threshold would have been useful in the absence of a better option but would at best justify a moderate reduction in restrictions.

Justification for restriction or no restrictions should be based on absolute numbers not on the relative change from some different condition.

1nvest
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4323
Joined: May 31st, 2019, 7:55 pm
Has thanked: 680 times
Been thanked: 1316 times

Re: Vaccinated deaths

#427697

Postby 1nvest » July 14th, 2021, 4:32 pm

richreduk wrote:
1nvest wrote:
dealtn wrote:More drivers die in car accidents wearing seat belts than those that don't.

That doesn't mean seat belts are more dangerous, nor that they shouldn't be worn. It is simply a reflection that the vast majority of car drivers, and those that unfortunately have accidents, and those that die, are wearing them, despite that lowering of specific risk.

Changing the wording to your context ...

The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died were wearing seat belts.


But what is the point you are trying to make from this statistic (in the context of COVID vaccines or seatbelts?).

Covid. The point being - you're mixing percentages with actual counts. Of 257 deaths, 163 were vaccinated 94 weren't vaccinated.

scrumpyjack
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4814
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:15 am
Has thanked: 606 times
Been thanked: 2675 times

Re: Vaccinated deaths

#427702

Postby scrumpyjack » July 14th, 2021, 4:57 pm

Died 'of' Covid or 'with' Covid? Not the same thing, nor is having had one jab or both.

onthemove
Lemon Slice
Posts: 540
Joined: June 24th, 2017, 4:03 pm
Has thanked: 722 times
Been thanked: 471 times

Re: Vaccinated deaths

#427716

Postby onthemove » July 14th, 2021, 5:35 pm

9873210 wrote:
onthemove wrote:With more deaths in the vaccinated group vs unvaccinated group, it's difficult to see how continued restrictions of any sort could be justifiably mandated.



That argument is complete and total rubbish.

A 0% efficient vaccine (a.k.a a placebo) used in 51% of the population meets this condition. So all we had to do is define nitrogen gas as a vaccine and we should have release restrictions in April 2020.

More nuanced a moderately effective vaccine that meet the 50% effective threshold would have been useful in the absence of a better option but would at best justify a moderate reduction in restrictions.

Justification for restriction or no restrictions should be based on absolute numbers not on the relative change from some different condition.


You conveniently selected just a subset of my post.

In the part you omitted to include, I pointed out that the current covid vaccines are amongst some of the most effective vaccines in the world, achieving a far better efficacy than anyone had originally dared hope.

So I put it to you that your response is complete rubbish. It is highly unlikely we will get any significant improvement on the existing vaccines.

Your argument about a 0% effective vaccine is complete garbage, as the covid vaccines are highly effective.

Since the current deaths appear to be being driven now by the vaccinated part of the population - that's vaccinated with a very effective vaccine - that's it, this is as good as it's going to get. It's time to get back to normal.

murraypaul
Lemon Slice
Posts: 785
Joined: April 9th, 2021, 5:54 pm
Has thanked: 225 times
Been thanked: 265 times

Re: Vaccinated deaths

#427745

Postby murraypaul » July 14th, 2021, 8:36 pm

1nvest wrote:Covid. The point being - you're mixing percentages with actual counts. Of 257 deaths, 163 were vaccinated 94 weren't vaccinated.


Yes. So what?
I think you think it shows that the vaccines don't work?

To link to another post: viewtopic.php?p=424211#p424211

Back in February 40%+ of all deaths in every age group over 55 listed mentioned Covid on the death certificate.
Now we are down to less than 2% for all of those age groups.

1nvest
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4323
Joined: May 31st, 2019, 7:55 pm
Has thanked: 680 times
Been thanked: 1316 times

Re: Vaccinated deaths

#428954

Postby 1nvest » July 20th, 2021, 1:59 am

Covid hasn't changed the death rate ... still one per person.

Mike4
Lemon Half
Posts: 7085
Joined: November 24th, 2016, 3:29 am
Has thanked: 1637 times
Been thanked: 3794 times

Re: Vaccinated deaths

#428978

Postby Mike4 » July 20th, 2021, 9:30 am

1nvest wrote:Covid hasn't changed the death rate ... still one per person.


Indeed. We are all going to die anyway so why bother with medicine?

1nvest
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4323
Joined: May 31st, 2019, 7:55 pm
Has thanked: 680 times
Been thanked: 1316 times

Re: Vaccinated deaths

#428997

Postby 1nvest » July 20th, 2021, 10:43 am

Mike4 wrote:
1nvest wrote:Covid hasn't changed the death rate ... still one per person.

Indeed. We are all going to die anyway so why bother with medicine?

With the move to the Chinese citizenship model, where your freedoms are individual according to all of your past actions/thoughts, indeed why bother.

Come September its looking like only one identified group will be able to partake in social events where there are crowds i.e. must have a Covid passport tick. But with other exemptions for those without that tick do not need to isolate if employed in selective jobs. No doubt with that system in place it will be more extensively and repeatedly refined - until its down to a case by case measure. Perhaps if you didn't vote for A then that bars you from doing P, Q and R. Or posted a 'inappropriate' comment on the TLF bars you from doing X, Y and Z. A transition to where when being asked "what is your view about" any subject you should immediately reference the "correct" reply in order to avoid having privileges removed. Covid is being used as the basis for introduction/implementation of such state controls.

servodude
Lemon Half
Posts: 8271
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:56 am
Has thanked: 4435 times
Been thanked: 3564 times

Re: Vaccinated deaths

#429000

Postby servodude » July 20th, 2021, 10:50 am

Mike4 wrote:
1nvest wrote:Covid hasn't changed the death rate ... still one per person.


Indeed. We are all going to die anyway so why bother with medicine?


I think you'll find the average number of deaths per person (for the dead) is slightly greater than one
But if you include the present living in the calculation it's likely around a half

-sd

Mike4
Lemon Half
Posts: 7085
Joined: November 24th, 2016, 3:29 am
Has thanked: 1637 times
Been thanked: 3794 times

Re: Vaccinated deaths

#429019

Postby Mike4 » July 20th, 2021, 11:45 am

servodude wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
1nvest wrote:Covid hasn't changed the death rate ... still one per person.


Indeed. We are all going to die anyway so why bother with medicine?


I think you'll find the average number of deaths per person (for the dead) is slightly greater than one
But if you include the present living in the calculation it's likely around a half

-sd


Yes I always find that a curious thing, that the number of souls alive today is roughly equal to the sum of all the souls who have died so far. It seems significant, but I dunno why.


Return to “Coronavirus Discussions”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest