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NHS APP pings

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool

Have you uninstalled the NHS app?

Yes
10
13%
No
33
43%
Never had it
33
43%
Would rather not say
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 76

pje16
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Re: NHS APP pings

#431272

Postby pje16 » July 29th, 2021, 4:55 pm

redsturgeon wrote:My step son's girlfriend has just been contacted by NHS test and trace via email and text. She flew back Madeira on last Thursday and has been nowhere without my step son the whole time since then. Neither have the app. He has not been contacted via NHS T&T.
Strange.

Indeed, I have heard about a couple who caravaned for a week, went everyhere together, got home she was pinged he wasn't

doolally
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Re: NHS APP pings

#431286

Postby doolally » July 29th, 2021, 5:56 pm

redsturgeon wrote:My step son's girlfriend has just been contacted by NHS test and trace via email and text. She flew back Madeira with him last Thursday and has been nowhere without my step son the whole time since then. Neither have the app. He has not been contacted via NHS T&T.

Strange.

Presumably someone on the flight was positive, girlfriend booked the tickets, so she got the email and text since those details were on the airline booking?

doolally

redsturgeon
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Re: NHS APP pings

#431288

Postby redsturgeon » July 29th, 2021, 6:19 pm

doolally wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:My step son's girlfriend has just been contacted by NHS test and trace via email and text. She flew back Madeira with him last Thursday and has been nowhere without my step son the whole time since then. Neither have the app. He has not been contacted via NHS T&T.

Strange.

Presumably someone on the flight was positive, girlfriend booked the tickets, so she got the email and text since those details were on the airline booking?

doolally


Step son booked tickets

Mike4
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Re: NHS APP pings

#431339

Postby Mike4 » July 30th, 2021, 12:37 am

Now that my behaviour has changed and I am taking more risks (e.g. an hour of bell ringing with five other people in a bell tower ringing room, followed by an hour in a pub garden), it occurs to me that the NHS app is probably unable to distinguish between me (or any user) being close to someone later testing positive for 15 mins inside say, a pub, or outside in, say the pub garden.

The transmission risks in the two circumstances strike me as at least an order of magnitude different, which in turn strikes me as a major weakness in the value of the pings.

Does any one have any data on the relative risks of 15 mins of indoor proximity to 15 mins of outdoor proximity?

I'm feeling inclined to re-install the app now I'm exposing myself to a degree of risk.

UncleEbenezer
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Re: NHS APP pings

#431340

Postby UncleEbenezer » July 30th, 2021, 1:04 am

Mike4 wrote:Does any one have any data on the relative risks of 15 mins of indoor proximity to 15 mins of outdoor proximity?

I'm feeling inclined to re-install the app now I'm exposing myself to a degree of risk.

Nope.

But bear in mind, indoor proximity is seasonal. In the summer, with doors and windows wide open, it's almost as good as an outdoor environment unless you're seriously overcrowded. Hence why regular colds and flu rarely happen in summer.

At the start of the pandemic, I wrote a piece considering yardsticks. Two metres (as we were being preached) takes the hit out of regular smells like a dogs mess or a baby that needs changing, but is wholly inadequate to nastier things like tobacco smoke. The latter also helps consider the effect of weather: upwind of a smoker with a good breeze you're relatively OK , but in the wrong conditions 200m may be inadequate. Other airborne nasties - like a covid virus - will be subject to the same influences.

Julian
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Re: NHS APP pings

#431449

Postby Julian » July 30th, 2021, 12:29 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:
Mike4 wrote:Does any one have any data on the relative risks of 15 mins of indoor proximity to 15 mins of outdoor proximity?

I'm feeling inclined to re-install the app now I'm exposing myself to a degree of risk.

Nope.

But bear in mind, indoor proximity is seasonal. In the summer, with doors and windows wide open, it's almost as good as an outdoor environment unless you're seriously overcrowded. Hence why regular colds and flu rarely happen in summer.

At the start of the pandemic, I wrote a piece considering yardsticks. Two metres (as we were being preached) takes the hit out of regular smells like a dogs mess or a baby that needs changing, but is wholly inadequate to nastier things like tobacco smoke. The latter also helps consider the effect of weather: upwind of a smoker with a good breeze you're relatively OK , but in the wrong conditions 200m may be inadequate. Other airborne nasties - like a covid virus - will be subject to the same influences.

There are UV levels to be considered as well so to some extent I suspect that the outdoor environment could have seasonal factors although perhaps they counteract each other - on the one hand the higher UV levels in summer attacking the viral particles in aerosols more aggressively hence inactivating them more quickly however in winter the higher likelihood of stronger winds dispersing aerosols into the wider environment and hence diluting them to ineffective levels more quickly. I suspect being outside on a still winter's day with a given level of crowding might still be likely to pose at least a somewhat higher risk than being outside on a still sunny June/July day (remember those?) with that same level of crowding simply because of the higher UV levels.

- Julian

Mike88
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Re: NHS APP pings

#431450

Postby Mike88 » July 30th, 2021, 12:32 pm

People were complaining when the ap failed to notify very few people. Now it is working better people are complaining because it is working too well.

pje16
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Re: NHS APP pings

#431452

Postby pje16 » July 30th, 2021, 12:37 pm

Mike88 wrote:People were complaining when the ap failed to notify very few people. Now it is working better people are complaining because it is working too well.

So at the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious- somewhere in the middle would be the solution :lol:

9873210
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Re: NHS APP pings

#431500

Postby 9873210 » July 30th, 2021, 3:11 pm

pje16 wrote:
Mike88 wrote:People were complaining when the ap failed to notify very few people. Now it is working better people are complaining because it is working too well.

So at the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious- somewhere in the middle would be the solution :lol:

No.

A tool has to server a strategy. The bleedin' obvious problem is that it is not.

If you want to test and trace to reduce infection rate you need to notify all suspected case.

If you want everybody to catch it you should notify nobody.

The middle is just theatre.

pje16
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Re: NHS APP pings

#431503

Postby pje16 » July 30th, 2021, 3:24 pm

9873210 wrote:
pje16 wrote:
Mike88 wrote:People were complaining when the ap failed to notify very few people. Now it is working better people are complaining because it is working too well.

So at the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious- somewhere in the middle would be the solution :lol:

No.

A tool has to server a strategy. The bleedin' obvious problem is that it is not.
If you want to test and trace to reduce infection rate you need to notify all suspected case.
If you want everybody to catch it you should notify nobody.
The middle is just theatre.


again the obvious, it is too senstive
Last week and the 2 weeks before over 500,000 pw were pinged
Did we see ANYTHING like that number of cases - NO

Stompa
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Re: NHS APP pings

#431516

Postby Stompa » July 30th, 2021, 4:24 pm

pje16 wrote:again the obvious, it is too senstive
Last week and the 2 weeks before over 500,000 pw were pinged
Did we see ANYTHING like that number of cases - NO

Well according to:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... stinsights

The estimated percentage of the community population (those not in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings) that had COVID-19 was:

1.57% (1 in 65 people) in England, up from 1.36% (1 in 75 people) last week
0.62% (1 in 160 people) in Wales, up from 0.47% (1 in 210 people) last week
1.48% (1 in 65 people) in Northern Ireland, up from 0.59% (1 in 170 people) last week
0.94% (1 in 110 people) in Scotland, down from 1.24% (1 in 80 people) last week

which is a pretty big number.

pje16
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Re: NHS APP pings

#431517

Postby pje16 » July 30th, 2021, 4:39 pm

The number of new daily cases for the UK has been between 25,000 and 35,000 per day for the last 2 weeks
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Stompa
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Re: NHS APP pings

#431543

Postby Stompa » July 30th, 2021, 5:51 pm

pje16 wrote:The number of new daily cases for the UK has been between 25,000 and 35,000 per day for the last 2 weeks
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

But that's the number of confirmed cases, the actual number must be higher. I have no idea how much higher.

9873210
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Re: NHS APP pings

#431552

Postby 9873210 » July 30th, 2021, 6:24 pm

pje16 wrote:
9873210 wrote:
pje16 wrote:So at the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious- somewhere in the middle would be the solution :lol:

No.

A tool has to serve a strategy. The bleedin' obvious problem is that it is not.
If you want to test and trace to reduce infection rate you need to notify all suspected case.
If you want everybody to catch it you should notify nobody.
The middle is just theatre.


again the obvious, it is too senstive
Last week and the 2 weeks before over 500,000 pw were pinged
Did we see ANYTHING like that number of cases - NO


An app that had no false positives or negatives would be wonderful, but would be so far beyond what is possible that it would be magic.

The best an app can do is to identify people who are at an elevate risk of becoming cases. This will be far more than actual cases.

What you do then depends on what your goals are. If you want to reduce the number of cases you ping and isolate everybody with an elevated risk.

If your goal is not to reduce the number of cases, but rather to be annoying, but not too annoying, you ping the top 10,000 or whatever you decide is the appropriate level of annoyance.

pje16
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Re: NHS APP pings

#431558

Postby pje16 » July 30th, 2021, 6:50 pm

Stompa wrote:
pje16 wrote:The number of new daily cases for the UK has been between 25,000 and 35,000 per day for the last 2 weeks
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

But that's the number of confirmed cases, the actual number must be higher. I have no idea how much higher.

What just make them up then? :roll: :roll:

Stompa
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Re: NHS APP pings

#431567

Postby Stompa » July 30th, 2021, 7:23 pm

pje16 wrote:
Stompa wrote:
pje16 wrote:The number of new daily cases for the UK has been between 25,000 and 35,000 per day for the last 2 weeks
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

But that's the number of confirmed cases, the actual number must be higher. I have no idea how much higher.

What just make them up then? :roll: :roll:

I imagine they can be deduced from the numbers I quoted earlier.

pje16
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Re: NHS APP pings

#431570

Postby pje16 » July 30th, 2021, 7:31 pm

I don't see what's wrong with using confirmed numbers, at least there no guesswork or estimates

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Re: NHS APP pings

#432076

Postby murraypaul » August 2nd, 2021, 4:40 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58062180
The NHS Covid-19 app in England and Wales is being tweaked so fewer contacts will be advised to self-isolate following a close contact with a positive case.

The app will now look for close contacts two days prior to a positive test rather than five days.


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