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Why Delta variant is able to spread so well

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Gersemi
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Re: Why Delta variant is able to spread so well

#431139

Postby Gersemi » July 29th, 2021, 9:30 am

Bouleversee wrote:There has always been the suggestion that even vaccinated people might pick up and pass on the virus, especially in the case of variants.


I can confirm this. Both my OH and I received our second vaccinations in the middle of June. After a "ping" OH tested positive in the middle of July, I was negative. But I tested positive about a week later, so I almost certainly caught it from him. Neither of us was very ill, mine in particular was like a fairly mild cold, sneezing and a runny nose. We are mid-fifties, average weight and in good health.

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Re: Why Delta variant is able to spread so well

#431159

Postby Bouleversee » July 29th, 2021, 10:13 am

Good that you got off so lightly. However, it might have had a worse outcome had you been old and/or in the clinically vulnerable category. I presume you have thought about how your OH might have caught the virus. Were you told which variant it was?
A lot of people seem to be unaware that the vaccine doesn't stop you being infected and others, especially the young, many of whom have already hsd the virus at least once, think there is no point in having it, with its possible attendant risks, in that case. It will be interesting to see what happens next.

Gersemi
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Re: Why Delta variant is able to spread so well

#431273

Postby Gersemi » July 29th, 2021, 4:57 pm

Bouleversee wrote:Good that you got off so lightly. However, it might have had a worse outcome had you been old and/or in the clinically vulnerable category. I presume you have thought about how your OH might have caught the virus. Were you told which variant it was?
A lot of people seem to be unaware that the vaccine doesn't stop you being infected and others, especially the young, many of whom have already hsd the virus at least once, think there is no point in having it, with its possible attendant risks, in that case. It will be interesting to see what happens next.


As you say the outcome might not have been so good if we had been more vulnerable. That knowledge fed into our choices. We spent five days by the seaside and visited various public houses (none of which were very busy and Covid protocol was followed, this was pre the 19th July). We also visited a pub near home with live music, which was busier, to be honest this is my prime suspect. So clearly we took risks, like many people we are longing to get back to our normal lives, which is largely based around the local live music scene. As double vaccinated people, in good health, with no close contacts with anyone vulnerable we felt willing to take that risk. For us personally that played out OK. Of course I don't know if we infected anyone else, but we isolated from the time we were pinged, which was before either of us felt ill.

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Re: Why Delta variant is able to spread so well

#431279

Postby Bouleversee » July 29th, 2021, 5:19 pm

Fair enough. You weren't going back to a house containing vulnerable parents and your risk was fairly minimal and the economy and poeple's mental health need activity to survive.

What I don't understand, since double jabbed people seem to be getting infected and unvaccinated people can be infected more than once, is where herd immunity comes in. It seems to me that those in the highly clinically vulnerable category will never be able to mix freely and will be obliged to continue to shield even more than before since family members may understandably expose themselves to risk and take the virus home before pinging or symptoms occur. Shielders were told by letter several weeks ago they no longer needed to shield but have had no direct communication as to what to do come Freedom Day. However, they can use their common sense and follow their attitude to risk.

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Re: Why Delta variant is able to spread so well

#431281

Postby Gersemi » July 29th, 2021, 5:38 pm

Bouleversee wrote:What I don't understand, since double jabbed people seem to be getting infected and unvaccinated people can be infected more than once, is where herd immunity comes in. It seems to me that those in the highly clinically vulnerable category will never be able to mix freely and will be obliged to continue to shield even more than before since family members may understandably expose themselves to risk and take the virus home before pinging or symptoms occur. Shielders were told by letter several weeks ago they no longer needed to shield but have had no direct communication as to what to do come Freedom Day. However, they can use their common sense and follow their attitude to risk.


Yep, we are all involved in a big experiment to see how this plays out. I'm very glad that I'm not in the vulnerable category. Our only close relative who is, is FIL, in his 70s and in reasonable health. We don't see him often, but are much more careful before visiting.

Despite being double jabbed and now having had the virus, we continue to wear masks in shops and on public transport. I doubt we'll bother in pubs, I could never see the point of wearing one while you move about when you're going to spend a couple of hours sat talking without one.

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Re: Why Delta variant is able to spread so well

#431356

Postby dealtn » July 30th, 2021, 7:59 am

Bouleversee wrote:What I don't understand, since double jabbed people seem to be getting infected and unvaccinated people can be infected more than once, is where herd immunity comes in.


In the same way that herd immunity to measles does. Most are vaccinated and it is about 97% effective. It isn't eradicated, and new babies are routinely vaccinated, but some still get it, with the occasional local "flare-up".

The numbers will be different for Covid. Not as many are (yet) vaccinated (including children), so there are more vectors for transmission, and the effectiveness of the vaccine is lower than 97%, but the principle is the same.

Once sufficient herd immunity protection is in place for measles, or Covid, any societal protection will be reassessed in a risk based way. Individuals of course also have the ability to adjust their behaviours in line with their individual attitudes to risk. Very few restrictions are in place to prevent measles outbreaks. Fewer are in place than before for Covid, with a current trend of reducing further.

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Re: Why Delta variant is able to spread so well

#431362

Postby servodude » July 30th, 2021, 8:32 am

dealtn wrote:In the same way that herd immunity to measles does.


Almost...
Probably safe to say the principle is similar; in that you're less likely to catch and spread covid once exposed...
but you're not immune as your are "post" measles
- closer would be to say as "herd immunity" to flu does?

If this becomes endemic it will get those it does that don't avoid it that season - but the seasons might be longer given the slower rate of evolution

-sd

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Re: Why Delta variant is able to spread so well

#431364

Postby dealtn » July 30th, 2021, 8:42 am

servodude wrote:
dealtn wrote:In the same way that herd immunity to measles does.


Almost...
Probably safe to say the principle is similar; in that you're less likely to catch and spread covid once exposed...
but you're not immune as your are "post" measles
- closer would be to say as "herd immunity" to flu does?

If this becomes endemic it will get those it does that don't avoid it that season - but the seasons might be longer given the slower rate of evolution

-sd


Yes its the principle. Which is why I ...

dealtn wrote:
the principle is the same



Not sure I could have made it clearer could I? Maybe have said it in bold?

What do you mean by
servodude wrote:
but you're not immune as your are "post" measles
?

It is possible, though uncommon, to catch (and pass on) measles more than once. It was somewhat problematic in our family with many of us being infected a number of times in our childhood despite vaccination and infection. How is that different to Covid (or influenza)?

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Re: Why Delta variant is able to spread so well

#431371

Postby Bouleversee » July 30th, 2021, 9:04 am

dealtn wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:What I don't understand, since double jabbed people seem to be getting infected and unvaccinated people can be infected more than once, is where herd immunity comes in.


In the same way that herd immunity to measles does. Most are vaccinated and it is about 97% effective. It isn't eradicated, and new babies are routinely vaccinated, but some still get it, with the occasional local "flare-up".

The numbers will be different for Covid. Not as many are (yet) vaccinated (including children), so there are more vectors for transmission, and the effectiveness of the vaccine is lower than 97%, but the principle is the same.

Once sufficient herd immunity protection is in place for measles, or Covid, any societal protection will be reassessed in a risk based way. Individuals of course also have the ability to adjust their behaviours in line with their individual attitudes to risk. Very few restrictions are in place to prevent measles outbreaks. Fewer are in place than before for Covid, with a current trend of reducing further.


Interesting. I wasn't aware that children who had been immunised could still get measles. There was a discussion by experts about herd immunity on the Today programme at around 8.15 this a.m. I need to listen again. The greater transmissibility of the delta variant and the multiplicity of variants complicates things greatly and I think it will be up in the air In every sense for a long time. .

Gersemine's experience makes it dfficult to understand the plan to drop the requirement for the double-jabbed to self-isolate if pinged or returning from cerrtain countries after Aug. 16. I am not sure of the details. I can see the need for an updated vaccine for the vulnerable but the advent of newer variants could continue for some time now that travel is taking off.

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Re: Why Delta variant is able to spread so well

#431374

Postby servodude » July 30th, 2021, 9:18 am

dealtn wrote:
servodude wrote:
dealtn wrote:In the same way that herd immunity to measles does.


Almost...
Probably safe to say the principle is similar; in that you're less likely to catch and spread covid once exposed...
but you're not immune as your are "post" measles
- closer would be to say as "herd immunity" to flu does?

If this becomes endemic it will get those it does that don't avoid it that season - but the seasons might be longer given the slower rate of evolution

-sd


Yes its the principle. Which is why I ...

dealtn wrote:
the principle is the same



Not sure I could have made it clearer could I? Maybe have said it in bold?

What do you mean by
servodude wrote:
but you're not immune as your are "post" measles
?

It is possible, though uncommon, to catch (and pass on) measles more than once. It was somewhat problematic in our family with many of us being infected a number of times in our childhood despite vaccination and infection. How is that different to Covid (or influenza)?


It is much much rarer to catch and transmit measles once you've had it than the figures would suggest for COVID
- you can consider yourself immune to measles if you've had it; you shouldn't for COVID
And that means the herd immunity is more like that of flu (in that it doesn't come in to it the way it does for measles)

You're welcome ;)
-sd

EDIT: to make it simpler to parse hopefully

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Re: Why Delta variant is able to spread so well

#431462

Postby Julian » July 30th, 2021, 12:53 pm

Bouleversee wrote:...
Gersemine's experience makes it dfficult to understand the plan to drop the requirement for the double-jabbed to self-isolate if pinged or returning from cerrtain countries after Aug. 16. I am not sure of the details. I can see the need for an updated vaccine for the vulnerable but the advent of newer variants could continue for some time now that travel is taking off.

On the self-isolation bit, do any of us know the details yet? I assume the government are aware that they will be increasing the opportunity for infections to occur but are going on the balance of risk now vs the economic damage and disruptions to services and even food supply currently occurring from the pingdemic. Gersemine's experience that at least both infections were mild, if the norm for post-fully-vaccinated infections, is important in that balance of risk consideration.

On the booster jabs for the vulnerable everything that I have seen or read so far leads me to believe that any jabs administered in the UK later this year will not be updated vaccines(*) but will be an additional third dose of the vaccines we have now in an attempt to boost antibody and T-cell levels significantly higher in already vaccinated individuals vs whatever potentially waning levels are currently remaining after the first two doses. There are some clinical trials being run at the moment to test how a third dose of the existing vaccines does affect antibody & T-cell levels and those trials are also testing whether a mix and match approach, e.g. giving a Pfizer booster to someone who initially had 2 doses of AZ or vice versa. A mix & match approach might well be the approach taken if the results of those trials look encouraging, and might even be necessary for people initially vaccinated with two doses of the AZ vaccine, but unless I've missed some important news or credible (well-informed) rumours I don't think updated vaccines are going to be a thing until 2022.

- Julian

(*) Except perhaps for those that might be administered in any clinical trials for updated vaccines but that wouldn't be part of any mass booster roll-out later this year.

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Re: Why Delta variant is able to spread so well

#431476

Postby Bouleversee » July 30th, 2021, 1:28 pm

I'm sure you know much more than I do, Julian so perhaps I misunderstood. I thought thry were going to tweak the vaccine to make things more difficult for Delta.


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