Another wave?

[1nvest]

Cases are the wrong metric to use because we are testing far more people, so of course cases are higher as an absolute number.

By which you mean you haven't looked at the testing data either, and continue to make things up. Testing was higher during March to July than it is now, and testing during January was not a whole lot lower than it is now.

Deaths and hospitalizations are down due to vaccines, and do not show anything about seasonality.

Delta variant : 113 deaths of under 50's within 28 days of a positive test, 72 of which were unvaccinated. 1189 total deaths up to August 15.

Seems like the large chunk of deaths are in the older more likely vaccinated category. And I believe the death rate halves for each 6 years reduction in age, so likely very few young deaths and nearly 3 million young adults have not had a single jab.

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/whitty-warns- ... 10639.html

If other 20-somethings are anything like my two they've been out raving since lockdown was eased, and passing Covid between them. My unvaccinated son contracted it, had a week of cold like symptoms, back to normal again now, similar to many of his mates who experienced similar.

An atrocity that despite having had Covid they are being discriminated against for not having been vaccinated. For instance some uni's refusing admission and a vast range of other discriminatory actions. Whilst the pharmaceuticals have exemption from litigation, others do not and rightfully such discrimination will result in lawyers delight.

[Lootman]

Australia is now a hot mess, and it is winter there.

The "hot mess" you describe in the Australian winter is an order of magnitude less bad than what we currently have in our summer.

Depends how you look at it. Their vaccination numbers are low compared to outs, so less can be more.

[9873210]

Australia is now a hot mess, and it is winter there.

The "hot mess" you describe in the Australian winter is an order of magnitude less bad than what we currently have in our summer.

Depends how you look at it. Their vaccination numbers are low compared to outs, so less can be more.

Australia's vaccine numbers are about half of the UK's, and are on track to reach UK levels within two months. How would the UK have turned out if the vaccine program was 50% complete in April 2020 and done by July?

If vaccines work at all then Australia will have far less morbidity and mortality overall. And less overall disruption, since you don't care if people get sick and die.

[Lootman]

The "hot mess" you describe in the Australian winter is an order of magnitude less bad than what we currently have in our summer.

Depends how you look at it. Their vaccination numbers are low compared to outs, so less can be more.

Australia's vaccine numbers are about half of the UK's, and are on track to reach UK levels within two months. How would the UK have turned out if the vaccine program was 50% complete in April 2020 and done by July?

If vaccines work at all then Australia will have far less morbidity and mortality overall. And less overall disruption, since you don't care if people get sick and die.

Australia also had more strict travel controls that would not have been acceptable to me. Like I said, it all depends on what is important to you and how you look at it.

[Clariman]

Based on various bits of reading and listening to public health experts since posting my original question, I'll try to answer my own original questions

Why are they [infection rates] increasing?

Recent research has shown that double vaccination does not prevent people from taking the Delta variant on board and passing it on to others, even though the double vaccinated may not be aware of it (Dr Chris Smith, Scientist on TV this morning - my paraphrasing)

Was this expected?

Increases due to relaxation of restrictions were expected earlier but didn't fully materialise because of the strong vaccination effect. Current increases are due to the answer shown above

Surely this will lead to increasing hospitalisations and deaths?

Not necessarily. That is a wait and see.

Surely this well increase the risk of mutations?

Yes it does but vaccines have done well against all mutations so far

Furthermore data from the ZOE Covid app study is showing that the effect of the vaccine is beginning to decline at around 4 or 5 months, so doesn't the increasing infection rates cause a real threat to those who have been double vaccinated early and are more elderly?

Although recent research shows that that the level of antibodies detected in a vaccinated person begins to decline at around 5 months, that does not necessarily mean their level of protection against the virus has declined. The immune system builds up a powerful 'memory' response which is retained beyond the antibody presence so protection may remain. The JCVI is looking at this right now and will recommend if and when and who should get a booster vaccination before the end of the year. (Dr Chris Smith on TV this morning)

So feeling a little reassured.