Another wave?

[Clariman]

The number of daily Covid infections in Scotland started falling around the end of June - a couple of weeks before they started falling more generally across the UK. However, the UK numbers have now stopped falling and appear to have stabilised. In Scotland numbers have been increasing again since the beginning of August and the rate of increases is accelerating. At the same time, the percentage of people testing positive has started rising. I suspect we will shortly see the same across the UK. Today's Scottish figures are getting close to the peak infection figures again. [BBC Scotland produce a good daily summary here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53511877]

I am staggered that no-one appears to be discussing this - neither Government nor health officials.

Why are they increasing?
Was this expected?
Surely this will lead to increasing hospitalisations and deaths?
Surely this well increase the risk of mutations?

Of course, the increasing number of people double vaccinated means fewer people will get seriously ill, but no vaccination is perfect. Furthermore data from the ZOE Covid app study is showing that the effect of the vaccine is beginning to decline at around 4 or 5 months, so doesn't the increasing infection rates cause a real threat to those who have been double vaccinated early and are more elderly?

I am interested in views on this.

C

[Dod101]

As I understand it this was not unexpected and it has not caused a big increase in deaths or hospitalisations. This is what is known as 'living with Covid'. The vaccines are doing their stuff. I think of the factors you raise the main risk is the last one, an increase in mutations, but even so they do not necessarily have to be more dangerous mutations and so far the vaccines we have are coping. I was reading that scientists are already working on modifying the vaccines to cope with mutations once they are identified, just as they do with the flu jab every winter. The plan is to give booster jabs in the Autumn to at least the more vulnerable, probably alongside the flu jab.

As I have said on another thread, I recommend reading Vaxxers by Sarah Gilbert and Catherine Green, the inventors of the Oxford Astrazeneca vaccine.

Dod

[SimonS]

Of course, the increasing number of people double vaccinated means fewer people will get seriously ill, but no vaccination is perfect. Furthermore data from the ZOE Covid app study is showing that the effect of the vaccine is beginning to decline at around 4 or 5 months, so doesn't the increasing infection rates cause a real threat to those who have been double vaccinated early and are more elderly?

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08 ... feat-delta

Israel has among the world’s highest levels of vaccination for COVID-19, with 78% of those 12 and older fully vaccinated, the vast majority with the Pfizer vaccine. Yet the country is now logging one of the world’s highest infection rates, with nearly 650 new cases daily per million people. More than half are in fully vaccinated people, underscoring the extraordinary transmissibility of the Delta variant and stoking concerns that the benefits of vaccination ebb over time.

Reuters

Although the figures are relatively small, currently only 24 a day in a population of 9 million, the rate is rising sharply: 6 August 6 deaths,18 August 24 deaths and new infections are 62% of their previous peak:

And worryingly, the number of patients suffering serious effects and needing full ICU care is rising too. Israel's medical assets are reported to be close to being overwhelmed.

I'm not sure your sense of comfort in"fewer people will get seriously ill " will stand up in the near future, since we have abandoned any sense of need to avoid infection.

Simon

[tjh290633]

Why are they increasing?
Was this expected?
Surely this will lead to increasing hospitalisations and deaths?
Surely this well increase the risk of mutations?

It's a seasonal disease, like flu and the common cold.

Yes it has been expected, hence the idea of annual vaccinations, and the autumn booster.

It might.

It might, it might well not.

It's part of living with Covid.

TJH

[pje16]

Numbers across the UK have crept up over the last 3 days as see on the site below
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
I look here most day and for the past 2-3 week new cases have been in the range 20,000-40,000

[murraypaul]

Why are they increasing?

Because we have removed the restrictions that were slowing down transmission.

Was this expected?

Yes.

Surely this will lead to increasing hospitalisations and deaths?

Last week: Positive tests up 7.8%, hospitalisations up 5.6%, deaths up 9.6%
It already is.

[88V8]

Surely this will lead to increasing hospitalisations and deaths?
Surely this well increase the risk of mutations?

Many if not most of the hospitalisations are amongst the unvaccinated.

As Dod said, there is indeed an enhanced mutations risk. Fingers crossed where that's concerned.

I expect a booster programme starting next month along with the flu jab, although the gubmt are leaving it mighty late to organise. Perhaps debating whether to offer universally or only to those who usually receive a flu jab.

Yes, there will be another uptick as we go into winter and back into (still) poorly ventilated spaces. On the plus side, it will put more pressure on the willfully unvaccinated.

As to why it's not being discussed, first everyone's fed up with covid, and secondly you surely don't expect the media to focus on two things at once?

V8

[vrdiver]

As Scotland's children have now returned to school, I suppose we can expect another uptick in the number of daily cases again?

Are there any statistics that show the cases, hospitalisations and deaths broken down by vaccination status, with those figures compared to their general populations? I.e. some way of seeing the data and understanding the impact of the vaccination program, rather than just a lumped-together figure for everyone, regardless of vaccine status.

VRD

[1nvest]

Pfizer jabs cost around £15 each, Oxford jab £3. With Oxford being pushed out 8 billion global population x 3 jabs each = £0.36 TRILLION (£360Bn) market.

If only the vulnerable where jabbed once, a £12Bn market assuming 1 in 10 being vulnerable.

My mid 20's unvaccinated son contracted Covid and endured mild symptoms, as have many of his unvaccinated mates. I remained in close contact with him, same house/living room, no masks etc throughout and remained clear (double Oxford'd).

More surplus deaths occurred proportionately in the 1976 heat wave year.

Yes the vaccines help, one jab can be enough, my 89 year old mother contracted Covid in hospital 2 weeks after her first Pfizer jab and expressed no symptoms whatsoever.

Have to doubt whether the political (introduction of identity cards/system and even more 'open prison' conditions) and financial interests (Pfizer etc.) favour scare tactics as a means to secure their objectives. Also has served as a cover for Brexit.

[thebarns]

“Many if not most of the hospitalisations are amongst the unvaccinated”

Pretty sure that is not right - I read today that 58% of the hospitalisations have been double vaccinated in U.K. Delta and waning immunity, plus a reopening of many things likely to be the causes.

This is also not just a seasonal infection - in Scotland cases rocketed in June at a time of good weather and a significant reason for this was suspected to be the Euros, with associated large scale travel by the Tartan army and mixing by those watching it at home.

Scottish numbers are rocketing once more, doubling in a week, from an already high level. Glasgow was at a revised level 4 threshold a week ago (150 infections per 100,00) and within a week this has increased to over 300, which was the original Level 4 threshold of closure down virtually everything. There has been little change in the weather with forecast looking reasonable for the next fortnight, but just watch the cases rise to what I predict will be record levels - this is not seasonal, it is basically here all the time, numbers correlate with how much society is opened up.

A school in Glasgow has already had to shut down due to Covid outbreaks in every year group. What else did they expect would happen returning schools when almost most of the school kids have not been vaccinated ?

Nightclubs opened in Scotland just under two weeks ago and were packed to the rafters.

I think this is the first attempt at let’s look and see what happens as we “live with Covid”…………

[9873210]

It's a seasonal disease, like flu and the common cold.

At least it always occurs during a season.
Waves have occurred in spring, autumn, winter and summer.

It might become seasonal at some point, but there is as yet no evidence that it is seasonal.

[Lootman]

It's a seasonal disease, like flu and the common cold.

At least it always occurs during a season.
Waves have occurred in spring, autumn, winter and summer.

It might become seasonal at some point, but there is as yet no evidence that it is seasonal.

Well, the numbers were down last summer and this, and were up last winter and this. So there's that.

Australia is now a hot mess, and it is winter there.

[9873210]

It's a seasonal disease, like flu and the common cold.

At least it always occurs during a season.
Waves have occurred in spring, autumn, winter and summer.

It might become seasonal at some point, but there is as yet no evidence that it is seasonal.

Well, the numbers were down last summer and this, and were up last winter and this. So there's that.

July 17 2021 was the most recent, and second highest, peak in Covid cases.
Todays infection rates are higher than all but three months: Dec 2020, Jan 2021 and July 2021.
By my calendar July and August are this summer.

The only way you can say cases are down this summer is to ignore the evidence and just make things up.

[Lootman]

At least it always occurs during a season.
Waves have occurred in spring, autumn, winter and summer.

It might become seasonal at some point, but there is as yet no evidence that it is seasonal.

Well, the numbers were down last summer and this, and were up last winter and this. So there's that.

July 17 2021 was the most recent, and second highest, peak in Covid cases.
Todays infection rates are higher than all but three months: Dec 2020, Jan 2021 and July 2021.
By my calendar July and August are this summer.

The only way you can say cases are down this summer is to ignore the evidence and just make things up.

Cases are the wrong metric to use because we are testing far more people, so of course cases are higher as an absolute number.

For the more meaningful numbers like hospitalisations and deaths, it is a very different story and that is what drove the summer 2020 and 2021 easings.

[9873210]

Cases are the wrong metric to use because we are testing far more people, so of course cases are higher as an absolute number.

By which you mean you haven't looked at the testing data either, and continue to make things up. Testing was higher during March to July than it is now, and testing during January was not a whole lot lower than it is now.

Deaths and hospitalizations are down due to vaccines, and do not show anything about seasonality.

[Lootman]

Cases are the wrong metric to use because we are testing far more people, so of course cases are higher as an absolute number.

By which you mean you haven't looked at the testing data either, and continue to make things up. Testing was higher during March to July than it is now, and testing during January was not a whole lot lower than it is now.

Deaths and hospitalizations are down due to vaccines, and do not show anything about seasonality.

I never said that vaccinations were not a factor. Stop putting words into my mouth. Of course they are, and of course therefore a big factor why we are far less worried about any notional increases in cases. Double-jabbed friend of mine tested positive and had Covid for a week. It was like a bad cold. We can deal with that.

But seasonality has clearly been a factor as well, as we see with similar things like colds and flus.

[thebarns]

Lootman,

I have followed many of your previous posts on investment and found them informative.

However I don’t agree with you on seasonality - it may be a minor factor but by no means the main one and definitely secondary compared to restrictions being imposed or not.

Look at the surge in Florida at the height of their Summer in the last few weeks.

I live in Scotland so have closely followed the numbers in Scotland.

Numbers have fallen in the Winter as restrictions were tightened and then in both early and late Summer this year, numbers increased appreciably as restrictions were eased and then almost totally removed.

The social mixing/restrictions on or off seem to be far more relevant a driver in case numbers than the seasons.

Yes, all other things being equal, more people would be inside during the winter and numbers would rise. But the presence or not and the weight of restrictions appears to be significantly more relevant to case numbers.

I also believe that whether we are in school term/university semester time of year, whether that be in the middle of winter or early Summer, is of appreciable relevance.

[Lootman]

Yes, all other things being equal, more people would be inside during the winter and numbers would rise. But the presence or not and the weight of restrictions appears to be significantly more relevant to case numbers.

Sure and I also do not think it is by any means the only factor. Just one particular influence.

But it is significant that the government chose high summer for its experiment with easing. The reasoning was to get the surge out of the way during the most favourable time, which surely is the summer with schools out and people outdoors.

September will be interesting but I do not believe there is any way we are going back to the dark days of Spring 2020 and winter 2021, if that is the fear. Rather we just learn to live with acceptable numbers of illnesses and deaths.

[thebarns]

I agree it is not the only factor but I do think weight of restrictions is the most significant factor.

And yes, I agree that the time to lift restrictions and see what is going to happen is better done in the Summer when schools and universities are off.

I was just disagreeing with those that viewed Covid as a seasonal virus.

Watch the Scottish numbers as I think they will show the path in the weeks ahead, primarily because schools have gone back 3-4 weeks ahead of English schools, although Universities largely go back on a similar U.K. wide timetable.

I think Covid case numbers will rise to record infection numbers exceeding those in 2020, and I agree that is partly due to better detection and testing, driven by school infections through a largely unvaccinated cohort then leaking out into a community that has few restrictions, with immunity waning.

However, like you, I am not sure on the death impact and share your hope that these figures will not rise as dramatically.

[Allitnil]

Australia is now a hot mess, and it is winter there.

The "hot mess" you describe in the Australian winter is an order of magnitude less bad than what we currently have in our summer.