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Why are our cases not coming down?

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Arizona11
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Why are our cases not coming down?

#448763

Postby Arizona11 » October 8th, 2021, 2:27 pm

Looking at the daily figures on the government website, we seem to have 30 to 40 thousand positive cases every day (yes we do slip into the 20’s for the odd day, but that is not the norm!). We are one of the best countries with regards to vaccination numbers. So why is it that our daily cases don’t seem to be coming down very much, if at all, but many countries in Europe and even the USA have seen their numbers drop noticeably in recent weeks?

It should also be noted that on many of the days when our figures drop slightly, it is very noticeable that the number of tests carried out has dropped even more that day thus distorting the stats.

Any thought please?

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448777

Postby Hallucigenia » October 8th, 2021, 3:59 pm

Arizona11 wrote:We are one of the best countries with regards to vaccination numbers.


That's no longer true - a lot of Europe has overtaken us at a population level. We've done pretty well at jabbing adults but are hopelessly behind the curve on jabbing kids - and jabs represent the entirety of the government's plan for kids, there's no effort to eg implement relatively cheap air filtration which can have a big effect, as I posted on another thread.

So we've ended up with two epidemics, one that's falling away in the general population but another that is growing rapidly among schoolkids and their families - net effect is to roughly cancel each other out.

At least the number in intensive care has dropped a bit, albeit not enough - that's perhaps the most important metric of pressure on hospitals, it still hasn't stopped a number declaring black alerts (Opel4) recently.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448778

Postby Arborbridge » October 8th, 2021, 4:10 pm

It is disappointing that the number of new cases has been pretty much stuck at the 34000 a day level.

School children must be a major cause of this, and do not believe what you hear about the vaccination program for them: at my grandchildren's schools in Devon there has been no vaccination offerred, and the school and GP have been given no date as to when it might begin.

Ciould it be the government isn't too concerned about that level of infection and has decided this slow but sure increase is a cheap way to achieve herd immunity without overloading the NHS?

Arb.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448785

Postby AleisterCrowley » October 8th, 2021, 4:48 pm

Lots of different factors at work here. Obviously we have opened up a lot, and the weather is such that people are more likely to be indoors.
Pulling in the other direction is the vaccination programme, although this has slowed significantly.
Hospitalisations and deaths are much lower than in the first two waves
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
I'm guessing the bulk of the cases are in younger age groups. The graph half way down the BBC link ('Unvaccinated more likely to die with COVID) suggests (unless I'm misreading it) that the under 50s , vaccinated or not, are pretty low risk.
Taking an arbitrary 30 deaths/100,000 cases as a 'worry', this level is only reached by vaccinated over-80s and unvaccinated over-70s (approx)

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448793

Postby Lanark » October 8th, 2021, 5:59 pm

Because a lot of the UK was vaccinated early this year those jabs are starting to wear off, only slightly for protection against severe disease, but there is a significant fall in protection against infection/mild/moderate disease.

So more people are getting ill enough for long enough to pass it on to others and of course everyone is easing up on mask wearing because they think it's all over.

Also having excluded under 18's from all their reporting/statistics the govt are reluctant to give those young people jabs because of course it won't improve any of the statistics they publish.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448801

Postby vagrantbrain » October 8th, 2021, 7:03 pm

Is there an expectation that cases will come down? It's going to become endemic at some point, which to me looks like it's happening now. Maybe c.30k is the equilibrium level?

Lanark wrote:Also having excluded under 18's from all their reporting/statistics the govt are reluctant to give those young people jabs because of course it won't improve any of the statistics they publish.


Wasn't aware they had - any evidence to support?

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448808

Postby Lootman » October 8th, 2021, 7:18 pm

vagrantbrain wrote:Is there an expectation that cases will come down? It's going to become endemic at some point, which to me looks like it's happening now. Maybe c.30k is the equilibrium level?

Indeed, and 500 deaths a week seems to be the going rate now, and the voters appear to accept that as the price of everything being reopened.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448813

Postby scrumpyjack » October 8th, 2021, 7:25 pm

Lootman wrote:Indeed, and 500 deaths a week seems to be the going rate now, and the voters appear to accept that as the price of everything being reopened.


I very much doubt that most of those deaths are due to Covid. The definition is that the person died within 28 days of testing positive, so 'died with covid' rather than 'died of covid'.

So it is debatable that the price being paid is 500 deaths and we have no idea how many of those deaths would probably have occurred within say 6 months anyway.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448819

Postby Hallucigenia » October 8th, 2021, 7:39 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:I very much doubt that most of those deaths are due to Covid. The definition is that the person died within 28 days of testing positive, so 'died with covid' rather than 'died of covid'.


Sigh. The ONS has been giving the figure for deaths *of* Covid for nearly a year now, and it's fairly consistently been around 7 in 8 (87%) of the deaths with Covid. That compares with about 1 in 6 for flu. So yes we do have a very good idea of how many "died of Covid" - at least in the judgement of the doctors who were there and signed the death certificate.

Going back to the OP, this article may be helpful :
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... rope-covid

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448828

Postby jfgw » October 8th, 2021, 8:46 pm

Looking at data for England, a falling-off of vaccine efficacy among older people does not appear to be a major factor. School children passing it on to each other and, subsequently, to their parents appears to be keeping the numbers up for now. The case rate for the 10—14 age group is, however, now falling. (I hope it isn't levelling off! It looks like it might be.)

I do not believe that we have reached equilibrium as I think there are still people who will catch Covid who haven't done so yet (although no-one knows how many have already had it).

While there are people still getting vaccinated, rates are very low even though there are many, especially in lower age groups, who are unvaccinated but who have had the opportunity. For this reason, and that vaccination plus infection almost certainly* offers greater immunity than just vaccination, I believe that future infections will have a far greater influence than future vaccinations on the reproduction rate. The truth is that more people will have to catch it in order for sufficient herd immunity to be reached.

Unfortunately, the monthly NHS publication which includes admission by age data, and which was due to be published 7/10/2021, is now due to be published 14/10/2021.

Image
My graph. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. : https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/


Julian F. G. W.


*Infection, then vaccination offers greater immunity than either on its own; vaccination, then infection probably does.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448841

Postby 1nvest » October 8th, 2021, 10:01 pm

Lootman wrote:
vagrantbrain wrote:Is there an expectation that cases will come down? It's going to become endemic at some point, which to me looks like it's happening now. Maybe c.30k is the equilibrium level?

Indeed, and 500 deaths a week seems to be the going rate now, and the voters appear to accept that as the price of everything being reopened.

Naturally/generally, around 600,000 die each year in the UK, 1650/day, 11,500/week.
The baby boomers of 1950's/1960's now into their 60's/70's is likely to see that 'natural' number rise over the next few decades. perhaps to a 12,000/week or more average, a additional 500+/week. Could all be just a natural number.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448845

Postby gryffron » October 8th, 2021, 10:35 pm

Arizona11 wrote:why is it that our daily cases don’t seem to be coming down very much, if at all. Any thought please?


Conversely, it’s not going up either. Lots of experts said we’d have a real increase in cases when the kids went back to school and the rest of us were stuck indoors.

Our case rates are remaining remarkably consistent. Which is surprising in both directions.

Gryff

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448881

Postby murraypaul » October 9th, 2021, 9:32 am

A graphic on this from the BBC today:
Image

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448883

Postby bungeejumper » October 9th, 2021, 9:37 am

A tangential observation, but still......

Driving home last night through a quiet-ish country town, the streets were like scenes from Breughel. Pubs were bursting, music was loud, and the people staggering out into the road certainly looked like they'd had a skinful. And it was only half past seven!

I don't think there are very many EU countries where you'd find that happening, even on a Friday night. Great for pubbers, clubbers, pub staff, and of course viruses in search of new friends. Sometimes I think we can be our own worst enemies. :(

BJ

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448892

Postby MrFoolish » October 9th, 2021, 10:13 am

Hallucigenia wrote:
scrumpyjack wrote:I very much doubt that most of those deaths are due to Covid. The definition is that the person died within 28 days of testing positive, so 'died with covid' rather than 'died of covid'.


Sigh. The ONS has been giving the figure for deaths *of* Covid for nearly a year now, and it's fairly consistently been around 7 in 8 (87%) of the deaths with Covid. That compares with about 1 in 6 for flu. So yes we do have a very good idea of how many "died of Covid" - at least in the judgement of the doctors who were there and signed the death certificate.


Covid may have been the final straw in some very sick people. But they may have had very limited prospects anyway. Don't be expecting Quincy, ME to come along, looking under every stone.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448894

Postby onthemove » October 9th, 2021, 10:31 am

Arizona11 wrote:Looking at the daily figures on the government website, we seem to have 30 to 40 thousand positive cases every day (yes we do slip into the 20’s for the odd day, but that is not the norm!). We are one of the best countries with regards to vaccination numbers. So why is it that our daily cases don’t seem to be coming down very much, if at all, ...
Any thought please?


It's been recognised for a while now that the vaccines aren't that effective at stopping transmission of the newer variants. They still offer good protection against hospitalisation and death, but not so great against transmission.

Several months ago, experts were already accepting that herd immunity, as a result, is not likely to be achieved, even if we have 100% vaccine take up.

As another poster has mentioned, for me, what's 'surprising' (I put it in inverted commas because I've felt all along that too much hysteria and fear has been promoted) is that cases haven't sky-rocketed. I mean, we were being led to believe by some (like the Guardian) that a return to school at the beginning of september was going to lead to the end of the world.

But if you scroll down to the charts half way down this page... https://www.theguardian.com/uk (Coronavirus Data Section)

... you'll see there are two clear spikes...

Coincidentally, the termination of the first spike was when masks were no longer compulsory... when masks were compulsory, the cases were shooting up, when masks were no longer mandated, the sharp rise stopped and reversed.

And then at the end of august/ beginning of september we see a similar pattern.... we were being led to believe that schools opening up was going to lead to a new wave of infections.... in fact, I seem to recall some arguing that the end of the spike in July was nothing to do with masks, and that it was because that was when schools broke up.

Yet when schools went back, that again resulted in a spike that was forming before, then terminating and cases going down for a few weeks.

I sincerely hope that there is a proper consideration of what this evidence means, because a lot of people who were going around demanding how others behave, seem to have been basing that demands on premises that don't seem to be borne out by the data. Both in July and September, not only have the hysterical fears of Armageddon have not come to pass, but the sharp rises prior seem to have reversed by factors that we were told should have made things worse.

But any how, in terms of cases, it's been accepted that herd immunity isn't like to happen, and that covid is going to be endemic, and that getting back to normal is now about letting the vaccine provide protection against hospitalisation and death - covid isn't going away.

We're basically now in a phase of letting those who were cowering under the sofa come to terms with the fact that they are now going to be exposed to the disease going forwards just like it were a common cold.

It's now just a wind down of all final restrictions etc ... there aren't many left. We are largely already back to normal. And I think most people already recognise that and are getting back to normal now.

And it now doesn't really matter how many cases there are ... what matters is that the vaccines are keeping the hospitalisations and deaths low. And they do seem to be achieving that.

If you look at the charts from the government data ... https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Allowing for the lag to deaths, etc, it seems that deaths and hospitalisations have been falling, in effect, since august. (the plateau of deaths in mid September is likely due to cases contracted in August)

So even with schools and the economy opening up, hospitalisations and deaths are still going down.

With football matches now seemingly back to normal (well certainly the traffic round Old Trafford certainly is when there's a match on :roll: ) I'm not sure there is anything left now to 'open up' that could conceivably change the outlook.

Really, now the risk seems to be from now going into the winter period and getting other diseases - colds and flu - that our immune systems haven't really seen for the past couple of years. I suspect that, now, is going to be the biggest determinant of pressure on the NHS over the next few months.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448936

Postby Arizona11 » October 9th, 2021, 1:32 pm

It is a shame that people do not seem to care how many are still dying from COVID. I suppose they would say, as long as it’s not me or my family or mates dying, who gives a damn. What a charming attitude towards your fellow man!

Also, there is something between “cowering under the sofa” and going out and doing everything you did pre-pandemic. Yes, I realise we all want to get back to some sort of normality, but why can’t we also take a bit of care? Is it really too much to ask people to wear a mask to go shopping? Or to keep a little distance from people in certain situations. It could save someone’s life!

I notice the previous writer talks about traffic around Old Trafford. I assume, maybe wrongly, that he lives in Manchester. Which area of the country has had one of the highest rates of Covid throughout the pandemic? Hence their don’t care attitude?

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448956

Postby XFool » October 9th, 2021, 2:13 pm

Arizona11 wrote:It is a shame that people do not seem to care how many are still dying from COVID. I suppose they would say, as long as it’s not me or my family or mates dying, who gives a damn. What a charming attitude towards your fellow man!

Also, there is something between “cowering under the sofa” and going out and doing everything you did pre-pandemic. Yes, I realise we all want to get back to some sort of normality, but why can’t we also take a bit of care? Is it really too much to ask people to wear a mask to go shopping? Or to keep a little distance from people in certain situations. It could save someone’s life!

Get with the program! There is no 'middle way' in life anymore - that's so 'Blairist'. :roll:

Along with, if a news organisation reports the news (their job) then it's all "their" fault. Do shoot the messenger...

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448957

Postby onthemove » October 9th, 2021, 2:23 pm

Arizona11 wrote:It is a shame that people do not seem to care how many are still dying from COVID. I suppose they would say, as long as it’s not me or my family or mates dying, who gives a damn. What a charming attitude towards your fellow man!


Current covid death rates are on a par with seasonal flu.

Where was your concern re. flu deaths pre-covid?

Life is a balance of risks. We're all going to die eventually. We can't let the risk of dying stop us from living.

Arizona11 wrote:Also, there is something between “cowering under the sofa” and going out and doing everything you did pre-pandemic. Yes, I realise we all want to get back to some sort of normality, but why can’t we also take a bit of care? Is it really too much to ask people to wear a mask to go shopping? Or to keep a little distance from people in certain situations. It could save someone’s life!


Yes, in general it is too much to ask.

It's already becoming apparent that people are now getting flu's and colds worse than pre-pandemic. We NEED to be exposed to viruses for our immune systems to stay healthy. If we all continue wearing masks and distancing, then our immune protection for flu and colds is going to wane even further, putting us at greater risk when we do eventually catch them.

There's also the issue of waning vaccine protection. There is an argument now that encountering covid for real, while we still have the 'fresh' protection against hospitalisation and death from the vaccines, can help our immune systems build broader and better protections against covid.

It's widely thought that the reason older people don't die of coughs and colds is because of the immune response built up from repeated infection while younger while the innate immune response is stronger. And there's every reason to believe the same will happen with covid.

In other words, learning to live with it is probably now the better course of action, and, I know it's going to scare those people who've been cowering behind the sofa screaming at anyone coming within 2 miles of them for the past 18 months, but learning to live with it actually means doing away with distancing and getting back to normal, and ditching the masks and paranoia, and letting covid ripple round like regular coughs and colds

Arizona11 wrote:I notice the previous writer talks about traffic around Old Trafford. I assume, maybe wrongly, that he lives in Manchester. Which area of the country has had one of the highest rates of Covid throughout the pandemic? Hence their don’t care attitude?


You speak for yourself. If you want to view me as having a "don't care attitude" then suit yourself.

I view my world view as being pragmatic and a realist.

Continuing to suppress coughs and colds and covid through distancing and masks and such like is not likely now to be the most 'caring' of approaches going forwards, and now more likely to do more harm than good overall.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448958

Postby Spet0789 » October 9th, 2021, 2:58 pm

Wearing masks in certain indoor settings (public transport and shops for example) is just a matter of politeness and consideration for others, in my view. It’s nonsense to suggest that mask wearing doesn’t make a difference. Why do medical staff wear them routinely?

I’m slightly disgusted to be honest at those I see unmasked on trains and in the supermarkets. I just think it’s a bit stupid and a bit rude to behave that way.

Restaurants, pubs, theatres and football matches are a different story. Those are more obviously high risk places and those concerned about their health can choose to avoid them.


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