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Why are our cases not coming down?

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
1nvest
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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448966

Postby 1nvest » October 9th, 2021, 3:24 pm

Spet0789 wrote:Wearing masks in certain indoor settings (public transport and shops for example) is just a matter of politeness and consideration for others, in my view. It’s nonsense to suggest that mask wearing doesn’t make a difference. Why do medical staff wear them routinely?

I’m slightly disgusted to be honest at those I see unmasked on trains and in the supermarkets. I just think it’s a bit stupid and a bit rude to behave that way.

Restaurants, pubs, theatres and football matches are a different story. Those are more obviously high risk places and those concerned about their health can choose to avoid them.

I'm disguised by the long term hoops and sacrifices the many have had to jump/go through for the possible benefit of so very few. 89 year old mother not allowed out of a care home without 14 days of bedroom isolation upon return and no visits permitted during that period. So in effect imprisoned, with only two half hour visits/week and having to be tested/gloves/apron/mask procedures for the single named visitor. A massive breach of human rights at a time when a week could be a life sentence. Despite she having contracted Covid whilst in hospital back in January and expressed low/no symptoms. Unvaccinated son contracted Covid in July and endured very very mild effects (comparable to a cold). Frankly I opine mask wearers to be snowflakes and vile, appropriate only in the likes of operating theatres, or by individuals who do have a cold/Covid.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448982

Postby XFool » October 9th, 2021, 5:13 pm

onthemove wrote:Life is a balance of risks. We're all going to die eventually. We can't let the risk of dying stop us from living.

That's all very well and good when it's your "risk", your "dying". Trouble all along with this has been:

Infectious disease: Your risk, somebody else's death. And vice versa.

onthemove wrote:I view my world view as being pragmatic and a realist.

Continuing to suppress coughs and colds and covid through distancing and masks and such like is not likely now to be the most 'caring' of approaches going forwards, and now more likely to do more harm than good overall.

In your opinion...

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#448985

Postby Spet0789 » October 9th, 2021, 5:19 pm

1nvest wrote:
Spet0789 wrote:Wearing masks in certain indoor settings (public transport and shops for example) is just a matter of politeness and consideration for others, in my view. It’s nonsense to suggest that mask wearing doesn’t make a difference. Why do medical staff wear them routinely?

I’m slightly disgusted to be honest at those I see unmasked on trains and in the supermarkets. I just think it’s a bit stupid and a bit rude to behave that way.

Restaurants, pubs, theatres and football matches are a different story. Those are more obviously high risk places and those concerned about their health can choose to avoid them.

I'm disguised by the long term hoops and sacrifices the many have had to jump/go through for the possible benefit of so very few. 89 year old mother not allowed out of a care home without 14 days of bedroom isolation upon return and no visits permitted during that period. So in effect imprisoned, with only two half hour visits/week and having to be tested/gloves/apron/mask procedures for the single named visitor. A massive breach of human rights at a time when a week could be a life sentence. Despite she having contracted Covid whilst in hospital back in January and expressed low/no symptoms. Unvaccinated son contracted Covid in July and endured very very mild effects (comparable to a cold). Frankly I opine mask wearers to be snowflakes and vile, appropriate only in the likes of operating theatres, or by individuals who do have a cold/Covid.


Well, 95% of that post was an off-topic rant about other restrictions.

As far as wearing a mask goes, dry your eyes old chap. Wearing a mask on a train or in the shops isn’t a hardship. Don’t be selfish. Unless you took a PCR test in the last few hours (and got the results back), you don’t know if you have COVID or not.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#449162

Postby dealtn » October 10th, 2021, 6:50 pm

Spet0789 wrote:
Restaurants, pubs, theatres and football matches are a different story. Those are more obviously high risk places and those concerned about their health can choose to avoid them.


Why is an outdoor football game "obviously" a high risk place? How you can you determine its relative risk to an indoor supermarket, for instance?

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#449168

Postby pje16 » October 10th, 2021, 7:23 pm

Arizona11 wrote:Looking at the daily figures on the government website, we seem to have 30 to 40 thousand positive cases every day (yes we do slip into the 20’s for the odd day, but that is not the norm!). We are one of the best countries with regards to vaccination numbers. So why is it that our daily cases don’t seem to be coming down very much

I've noted those figures too...
I know 3 people (a mate and a married couple) who have had both jabs and in the last month and have since caught Copvid
My mate was in bed for 9 days and lost a stone in weight, the hole episode lasted about 3 weeks, but he's ok now
Is this vaccine as good as we're led to believe ?

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#449169

Postby dealtn » October 10th, 2021, 7:34 pm

pje16 wrote:
Arizona11 wrote:Looking at the daily figures on the government website, we seem to have 30 to 40 thousand positive cases every day (yes we do slip into the 20’s for the odd day, but that is not the norm!). We are one of the best countries with regards to vaccination numbers. So why is it that our daily cases don’t seem to be coming down very much

I've noted those figures too...
I know 3 people (a mate and a married couple) who have had both jabs and in the last month and have since caught Copvid
My mate was in bed for 9 days and lost a stone in weight, the hole episode lasted about 3 weeks, but he's ok now
Is this vaccine as good as we're led to believe ?


What have you been led to believe about it?

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#449170

Postby jfgw » October 10th, 2021, 7:59 pm

pje16 wrote:I know 3 people (a mate and a married couple) who have had both jabs and in the last month and have since caught Copvid
My mate was in bed for 9 days and lost a stone in weight, the hole episode lasted about 3 weeks, but he's ok now
Is this vaccine as good as we're led to believe ?


How many people do you know who have had both jabs and have not had Covid?

How would your mate who was in bed for 9 days have fared had he not been jabbed? It is impossible to know but "dead" is one possibility.


Julian F. G. W.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#449173

Postby Spet0789 » October 10th, 2021, 8:07 pm

dealtn wrote:
Spet0789 wrote:
Restaurants, pubs, theatres and football matches are a different story. Those are more obviously high risk places and those concerned about their health can choose to avoid them.


Why is an outdoor football game "obviously" a high risk place? How you can you determine its relative risk to an indoor supermarket, for instance?


I think in the stands your risk is somewhat reduced but when packed in queuing for a drink at half time and before and after the game, with no-one wearing a mask, it’s pretty clear to me that a football match (at a big stadium, not non-league standing by a muddy field) is higher risk than a supermarket.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#449177

Postby Lootman » October 10th, 2021, 8:34 pm

Spet0789 wrote:
dealtn wrote:
Spet0789 wrote:Restaurants, pubs, theatres and football matches are a different story. Those are more obviously high risk places and those concerned about their health can choose to avoid them.

Why is an outdoor football game "obviously" a high risk place? How you can you determine its relative risk to an indoor supermarket, for instance?

I think in the stands your risk is somewhat reduced but when packed in queuing for a drink at half time and before and after the game, with no-one wearing a mask, it’s pretty clear to me that a football match (at a big stadium, not non-league standing by a muddy field) is higher risk than a supermarket.

With deliveries you no more have to go to a supermarket than you have to attend an outdoor football match.

If your sensitivity to risk is elevated then an option is simply to not go to places where you feel uncomfortable, rather than seek to impose your owns standards upon others.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#449193

Postby servodude » October 10th, 2021, 11:35 pm

jfgw wrote:
pje16 wrote:I know 3 people (a mate and a married couple) who have had both jabs and in the last month and have since caught Copvid
My mate was in bed for 9 days and lost a stone in weight, the hole episode lasted about 3 weeks, but he's ok now
Is this vaccine as good as we're led to believe ?


How many people do you know who have had both jabs and have not had Covid?

How would your mate who was in bed for 9 days have fared had he not been jabbed? It is impossible to know but "dead" is one possibility.

Julian F. G. W.


That is precisely how I would consider it.

If someone has a hard time with the virus after both jabs then it's very likely the would have suffered much worse without them.
~90% of those that we would have expected to die now won't - but you shouldn't expect them to shrug it off without noticing

Or another way:
"Crashed the car doing 70 and the seat belt broke my collar bone; what's the bloody point of the blasted things!"

- sd

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#449200

Postby pje16 » October 11th, 2021, 6:20 am

jfgw wrote:
pje16 wrote:I know 3 people (a mate and a married couple) who have had both jabs and in the last month and have since caught Copvid
My mate was in bed for 9 days and lost a stone in weight, the whole episode lasted about 3 weeks, but he's ok now
Is this vaccine as good as we're led to believe ?


How many people do you know who have had both jabs and have not had Covid?
How would your mate who was in bed for 9 days have fared had he not been jabbed? It is impossible to know but "dead" is one possibility.
Julian F. G. W.

I agree, how he would have fared without it was exactly what we said when we last spoke to each other
I was responding purely to a post that asked "why cases are not coming down", and I didn't see the need to go into a full explanation
My point was you can still catch the virus even if you have been jabbed, it does NOT make you immune

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#449201

Postby servodude » October 11th, 2021, 6:40 am

pje16 wrote:
jfgw wrote:
pje16 wrote:I know 3 people (a mate and a married couple) who have had both jabs and in the last month and have since caught Copvid
My mate was in bed for 9 days and lost a stone in weight, the whole episode lasted about 3 weeks, but he's ok now
Is this vaccine as good as we're led to believe ?


How many people do you know who have had both jabs and have not had Covid?
How would your mate who was in bed for 9 days have fared had he not been jabbed? It is impossible to know but "dead" is one possibility.
Julian F. G. W.

I agree, how he would have fared without it was exactly what we said when we last spoke to each other
I was responding purely to a post that asked "why cases are not coming down", and I didn't see the need to go into a full explanation
My point was you can still catch the virus even if you have been jabbed, it does NOT make you immune


To be fair to Julian, you also posited the question: Is this vaccine as good as we're led to believe? in a way that it looked consequent to your anecdote

Given your point just made it's apparent you actually do have the correct end of the stick :)

There are quite a few though that don't and the "what's the point of the vaccine if I can still get sick?" trope is one of the common ones
- it appears your post inadvertently looked a bit like one of those

have fun and stay wall
- sd

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#449218

Postby dealtn » October 11th, 2021, 9:34 am

Spet0789 wrote:
dealtn wrote:
Spet0789 wrote:
Restaurants, pubs, theatres and football matches are a different story. Those are more obviously high risk places and those concerned about their health can choose to avoid them.


Why is an outdoor football game "obviously" a high risk place? How you can you determine its relative risk to an indoor supermarket, for instance?


I think in the stands your risk is somewhat reduced but when packed in queuing for a drink at half time and before and after the game, with no-one wearing a mask, it’s pretty clear to me that a football match (at a big stadium, not non-league standing by a muddy field) is higher risk than a supermarket.


Well it maybe pretty clear to you, but I can assure you it's not pretty clear to those in the industry, and evidence over the last couple of years doesn't it make it "obvious" at all it is "high risk".

Speaking as someone who is a Director of a professional football club, and the matchday Covid Officer, we welcome any scientific evidence on the riskiness of staging events, and the resulting appropriate matchday protocols.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#449228

Postby Arborbridge » October 11th, 2021, 10:13 am

dealtn wrote:
Speaking as someone who is a Director of a professional football club, and the matchday Covid Officer, we welcome any scientific evidence on the riskiness of staging events, and the resulting appropriate matchday protocols.


Maybe what you are asking is not possible because the work hasn't been done? In which case we are back to using value judgements about likely risk - and since someone has to make the decision, it may as well be those we've elected to do such things. I am sympathetic to your cause, but that's the way it is at the moment.

Unfortunately, we've seen so much "unlocking" and what with the absurd procrastination over vaccinating school children, we are the sick man of Europe at the moment. We had such a golden opportunity to remain in the top league, so to speak, and we have slipped badly.

My grandchildrens' school in Devon have absolutely NO information about when they will be able to vaccinate. This delay is a scandal - and in the meantime the youngsest has brough home Covid and his mother and two sisters have become infected and sufferring badly this week.

This is a small and personal anecdote, but is something which should have been, and could have been, averted. If repeated across the country (and I understand it could be) no wonder we are in the mire.


Arb.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#449234

Postby XFool » October 11th, 2021, 10:30 am

Lootman wrote:With deliveries you no more have to go to a supermarket than you have to attend an outdoor football match.

Just out of interest, how is that going now?

Innocently, when the pandemic was looming, my (not so) 'clever' Plan A was to order all my supermarket shopping from home. Hah! :lol:

My Plan A rapidly became Plan X and over and out.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#449268

Postby pje16 » October 11th, 2021, 12:48 pm

servodude wrote:
pje16 wrote:
jfgw wrote:
How many people do you know who have had both jabs and have not had Covid?
How would your mate who was in bed for 9 days have fared had he not been jabbed? It is impossible to know but "dead" is one possibility.
Julian F. G. W.

I agree, how he would have fared without it was exactly what we said when we last spoke to each other
I was responding purely to a post that asked "why cases are not coming down", and I didn't see the need to go into a full explanation
My point was you can still catch the virus even if you have been jabbed, it does NOT make you immune


To be fair to Julian, you also posited the question: Is this vaccine as good as we're led to believe? in a way that it looked consequent to your anecdote

Given your point just made it's apparent you actually do have the correct end of the stick :)

There are quite a few though that don't and the "what's the point of the vaccine if I can still get sick?" trope is one of the common ones
- it appears your post inadvertently looked a bit like one of those

have fun and stay wall
- sd

Ok It was just a point I decided to make as the vaccine is not as strong as say for polio or pneumonia
I didn't think it was going to be analysed far more than I thought a post would be :roll:
cheers
Paul

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#449271

Postby Lootman » October 11th, 2021, 12:56 pm

XFool wrote:
Lootman wrote:With deliveries you no more have to go to a supermarket than you have to attend an outdoor football match.

Just out of interest, how is that going now?

I never felt a need to do it as I was always happy to go to the local shop, not feeling awkward about that. But I know plenty of people who get food (and pretty much everything else) delivered to their home. It is how many people live these days, which in turn explains how Amazon has been a spectacularly successful investment.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#449278

Postby dealtn » October 11th, 2021, 1:12 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
dealtn wrote:
Speaking as someone who is a Director of a professional football club, and the matchday Covid Officer, we welcome any scientific evidence on the riskiness of staging events, and the resulting appropriate matchday protocols.


Maybe what you are asking is not possible because the work hasn't been done? In which case we are back to using value judgements about likely risk - and since someone has to make the decision, it may as well be those we've elected to do such things. I am sympathetic to your cause, but that's the way it is at the moment.



I don't disagree. However it seems many in society are confident of this obvious and high risk, and presumably want something done about it. The assumption being football (and other sports) clubs don't care about Covid, or spectators and their communities, nor are they and the various sporting bodies doing anything about trying to understand it. That is a long way from the truth, but perhaps that is not a fashionable position for anyone to take.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#449288

Postby Arborbridge » October 11th, 2021, 1:38 pm

pje16 wrote:Ok It was just a point I decided to make as the vaccine is not as strong as say for polio or pneumonia
I didn't think it was going to be analysed far more than I thought a post would be :roll:
cheers
Paul


:lol: That often happens here.

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Re: Why are our cases not coming down?

#449292

Postby Hallucigenia » October 11th, 2021, 1:49 pm

dealtn wrote:Well it maybe pretty clear to you, but I can assure you it's not pretty clear to those in the industry, and evidence over the last couple of years doesn't it make it "obvious" at all it is "high risk".


To be fair it was "higher" risk. But you can take things from first principles - there's lots of evidence now that Covid is primarily spread by airborne aerosols - think of it like cigarette smoke. There is more risk associated with :
    Crowds
    Close contact
    Confined spaces
    "Vocalisation"
- the most famous example is perhaps the Skagit choir case, where one person at the back infected almost the whole choir :
Image

On the flip side, being outside reduces the risk a lot - although top-level football stadiums are typically pretty enclosed, so they're not as "outside" as they might seem in terms of dispersing "cigarette smoke", and there's plenty of areas like hospitality, toilets and buses/trains where people are "inside" for these purposes at some point during the event.

Also you might want to ask these epidemiologists :
https://www.espn.co.uk/espn/story/_/id/ ... diums-fans
"I am a die-hard sports fan," said Jason Salemi, an associate professor of epidemiology at the University of South Florida in Tampa. "But I would not go to these events right now."...

A packed football stadium now is not a good idea,'' said Dr. Olveen Carrasquillo, a professor of medicine and public health sciences at the University of Miami's medical school. "When there's a lot of shouting and yelling'' without masks, "it means they're spraying the virus.''


dealtn wrote:Speaking as someone who is a Director of a professional football club, and the matchday Covid Officer, we welcome any scientific evidence on the riskiness of staging events, and the resulting appropriate matchday protocols.


The big problem is that Covid transmission is so flipping lumpy - 80% of people don't transmit it at all, but a handful of people transmit to 20+ people. So you need a lot of data before you can distinguish between being safe and being lucky - there's been lots of outdoor events with relatively low levels of transmission and then you get a Boardmasters with 4,700+ cases confirmed by PCR (and being in the West Country, possibly more that don't show on PCR). And from your point of view, there's the problem of distinguishing between what happens in the areas under your direct control, and what happens away from the stadium.

You have got some evidence, such as the non-peer-reviewed Olczak et al which saw increased transmission in 2020 associated even with 20% attendance, and the Bundesliga saw significant increases when masks were not stricly enforced at games. The Georgia schools study I mentioned in the other thread is one of those that points to significant benefits from wearing masks (and other research has shown that N95 are significantly better than surgical masks).

In theory the Events Research Programme should have given some answers, but there were some significant problems with the way it was implemented such that the results are inconclusive at best and the government was clearly in such a hurry to unlock that they weren't seriously interested in the results. But the ERP does suggest that the risks are manageable when virus levels are low and people are required to be LFT-negative before going to a stadium, whereas Boardmasters shows what can happen in less favourable conditions.

Requiring a negative LFT is not perfect, but should at least stop potential superspreaders going to the event. So it's not surprising that eg Spurs and Chelsea are requiring either double-jabs or a negative LFT for anyone attending their games.

It can be tricky to enforce the wearing of masks, even if it makes a significant difference as the Bundesliga and Georgia studies show, but at the very least businesses can normalise them, with staff wearing them, making it clear in all communications that you encourage them to be worn. The big thing that is not being talked about much in the UK because it needs money spending, albeit not huge amounts - is ventilation and air filtration. Studies like the Conway-Morris et al preprint at Addenbrooke's clearly show that portable HEPA units do a great job of clearing virus (and bacteria) particles from the air in an environment like a hospital ward. They may not be practical for eg stadium concourses but look a good and not particularly expensive solution for quieter enclosed environments like "restaurant" areas where it's not practical for customers to wear masks and people are hopefully not shouting in each others faces like they can be pitchside.

There's no one solution for all areas, it's more a question of building up layered defences that may not be perfect but where each layer cumulatively cuts the risk. I know many sports businesses have had a tough time over the last 18 months and cash and other resources are tight, but at the same time encouraging masks on customers, requiring vaccination or a recent negative test, use of portable HEPA filters could all be regarded as "reasonably practicable" towards your duty in law to protect the health, safety and welfare of employees and other people who might be affected by your business.


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