Three jabs in perpetuity?

[88V8]

This thread https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=32036 flagged the decline in vaccine efficacy over eight months, and the consequent need for boosters.

Here https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.15.21266341v1.full-text on a more optimistic note is a study drawing on UK data which shows a high level of response to the mRNA booster. (This is the full text - an abstract is available on the tab to the left).

The findings indicate a significant increase in protection for over-50s around two weeks after the booster. Overall, the third dose was 93% effective in preventing symptomatic disease where the primary vaccine was Astra, and 94% where the primary was Pfizer.

Perhaps less positively, Anthony Fauci, director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and Chief Medical Advisor to the President, and Peter English, former chair of the British Medical Association's Public Health Medicine Committee, consider that three doses may have to become the norm, indeed due to the profoundly infectious nature of the Delta variant any meaningful degree of population immunity will require high volumes of people vaccinated with three doses.

“I have been predicting, confidently, for some time, that the vaccines will become a three-dose vaccination program, like so many of our other vaccine programs: a three doses “primary course”; which may subsequently be followed a year or more later by a reinforcing dose, if immunity wanes, or if vaccine-escape variants arise,” English commented

The cost of this, and persuading people to maintain their level of protection, may become an ongoing problem.

Israel began its booster programme in August, and is likely to provide the first insight into enduring third-dose efficacy.

V8

[Alaric]

The cost of this, and persuading people to maintain their level of protection, may become an ongoing problem.

The concept and acceptance of annual flu vaccinations for the older and more vulnerable is well established. So too is the notion of vaccinating children, even if that''s suffered some hits from anti-vax movements

[servodude]

The cost of this, and persuading people to maintain their level of protection, may become an ongoing problem.

The concept and acceptance of annual flu vaccinations for the older and more vulnerable is well established. So too is the notion of vaccinating children, even if that''s suffered some hits from anti-vax movements

Indeed!

... and this Isn't the flu even though it is continually conflated with it
- I can understand why given they are both "quite" infectious and superficially respiratory in effect

There are already a few vaccines that require multiple doses that we accept as "part of life"
- this one however was arrived at in the "fog of war" against a virus that exhibits features that confound the mathematical understanding of most humans

If they'd had the time to investigate and plan the roll out
- I can guarantee it wouldn't have started at 2 weeks apart for two doses, and have been changed every couple of months

As far as we can tell SARS-COV-2 mutates much more slowly than flu and we can expect vaccines to remain effective or relevant for longer than those for flu
I'll put it this way:
- you expect to require a NEW flu vaccine every year (because of variants)
- yet even the AZ vaccine developed against the genome established originally by the Chinese and released by the Australians seems to have retained its efficacy this far in to the pandemic
... I think we're doing OK and that we'll find a balance with this wee shitey bugger sooner rather than later (despite what the board at Pfizer are hoping)

-sd

[Julian]

To stay with the positive there is a lot of work going on right now to develop nasal spray and even oral (i.e. a pill) formulations for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. If we do end up needing annual 3-dose vaccinations those new delivery mechanisms, if successfully developed, would be a game-changer in terms of convenience, lowering admin costs for the government (assuming the pharma companies don't price any of those new vaccines at a premium sufficient to offset the savings from not having the injection logistics), and very possibly also increase vaccine uptake rates.

I've got a bit of a busy day but unless someone beats me to it I will try to to do a bit of searching on avenues of research and progress for new delivery methods in the next few days.

- Julian

[servodude]

I've got a bit of a busy day but unless someone beats me to it I will try to to do a bit of searching on avenues of research and progress for new delivery methods in the next few days.

- Julian

Hope the eyes are doing well Julian
(apologies if this is off topic - please consider it a heartfelt and friendly wave)

-sd

[9873210]

The reason vaccines were viewed as the only answer to viral diseases is that we have had very few anti-virals. This is beginning to change.

A sufficiently cheap, safe and effective treatment would be an alternative to vaccinations. Less miraculous but still effective treatments allow a more relaxed posture on keeping everyone fully boosted all the time. Effective treatments mean you can deal with any outbreak after it happens, with fewer deaths and other bad outcomes.

[redsturgeon]

Surely after the initial two vaccines then it is one jab in perpetuity?

John

[ursaminortaur]

Surely after the initial two vaccines then it is one jab in perpetuity?

John

If immunity continues to fade after 6 months then it means at least two vaccinations a year going forward.

[redsturgeon]

Surely after the initial two vaccines then it is one jab in perpetuity?

John

If immunity continues to fade after 6 months then it means at least two vaccinations a year going forward.

Perhaps but I can see a time as with the flu jab where the extra protection is just needed in the winter months.

John

[ursaminortaur]

Surely after the initial two vaccines then it is one jab in perpetuity?

John

If immunity continues to fade after 6 months then it means at least two vaccinations a year going forward.

Perhaps but I can see a time as with the flu jab where the extra protection is just needed in the winter months.

John

Possibly as Covid evolves but at the moment it doesn't seem to be as seasonal as flu.

[1nvest]

If you've had Covid and experienced mild symptoms, could a subsequent re-contraction/variant induce more severe symptoms?

[look]

i expect 3 or 4 jabs every year for a very long time. When the pest began, scientists warned that the virus is very simple, and so it mutates more.
the intolerance for simple remedies without the approval of the burocrats makes me pessimist.

[Gersemi]

If you've had Covid and experienced mild symptoms, could a subsequent re-contraction/variant induce more severe symptoms?

The ONS published this on 27/10/2021:
https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/10/27/what ... nfections/

this suggests that reinfections tend to be milder and rare. However with the Delta variant they are more common (but still rare) and symptoms tend to be more likely with Delta.

[jfgw]

If you've had Covid and experienced mild symptoms, could a subsequent re-contraction/variant induce more severe symptoms?

There is always that possibility but I don't know how common it is. I am aware of one case (which proves that it has happened at least once) and I am sure I have heard of others.

The woman in her early 50s declined the jab. She caught Covid three times. The second time was worse than the first, and the third time landed her in an ICU bed. There were ten patients in that ward and none of them had been jabbed.


Julian F. G. W.

[servodude]

If you've had Covid and experienced mild symptoms, could a subsequent re-contraction/variant induce more severe symptoms?

There is always that possibility but I don't know how common it is. I am aware of one case (which proves that it has happened at least once) and I am sure I have heard of others.

The woman in her early 50s declined the jab. She caught Covid three times. The second time was worse than the first, and the third time landed her in an ICU bed. There were ten patients in that ward and none of them had been jabbed.


Julian F. G. W.

It's "one of those things" we just don't really know yet.

A mild infection could serve simply to exercise the immune system; to stop this being novel to an individual. In that case it could be considered a benefit.

On the other hand there are plenty of cases where someone has been left with ongoing problems post COVID; being reinfected before you've fully recovered could compound the problems.

There's probably been enough reinfection already that it's unlikely to be in the Dengue fever category
- where the antibodies you produce against it cause it to be very dangerous the next time

We'll probably be encouraged to get jabs until they've got more definite answers

-sd

[ADrunkenMarcus]

If you've had Covid and experienced mild symptoms, could a subsequent re-contraction/variant induce more severe symptoms?

I do hope not, however hope is not an answer!

I've got COVID-19 at the moment and it is quite tiresome.

Best wishes


Mark.

[1nvest]

If you've had Covid and experienced mild symptoms, could a subsequent re-contraction/variant induce more severe symptoms?

I do hope not, however hope is not an answer!

I've got COVID-19 at the moment and it is quite tiresome.

Best wishes

Mark.

Best wishes to you Mark. My 89 year old mother caught it back in January, two weeks after the first jab, whilst in hospital (she remained on the same ward for 4 days no doubt passing it onto others coming into that hip op ward behind her before they moved her into isolation). She endured very mild symptoms. My mid 20's son contracted it pretty much as soon as the nightclubs were reopened back in July, when all of his unvaccinated mates pretty much passed it around, they all seemed to endure more mild flu/heavy cold like 'chesty' symptoms and lethargy. My older son and I who were both vaccinated didn't contract it from him despite low/no precautions (started off with attempted separation within the household but that pretty much only lasted half a day).

Mums had her third/booster, so Pfizer, then Oxford, then Pfizer booster (they gave the Oxford as the second as she fell due for the second whilst still in care and despite my repeated saying that she'd had the Pfizer as her first dose and them noting such, when I asked to clarify that she'd had the Pfizer on the evening she had the second jab they said no that it was the Oxford!).

My 25 year old is anti-vax and insisting that having had Covid his nasal based immune system is likely better placed than a muscle based vaccine, and in him and his mates all having had Covid they're somewhat blazai about it and see the possible risks from the vaccine being greater than Covid.

[ADrunkenMarcus]

Thanks.

I'm a couple of years older than your 25 year old and double jabbed. The issue for me is I am never ill and I rarely even get a cold. I had 1 day off sick from work nine years ago. I know I'm fortunate because I went into this fitter than I probably have ever been before, doing an hour of exercise a day (either power-walk, swimming or cycling) and I'm not overweight. The Friday before I felt ill on Sunday, I'd swum 100 lengths in 59 minutes.

I'm sure I have a mild case. I have fatigue, loss of concentration and a heavy head. No loss of taste or smell. No loss of appetite. Seven days in now and what is slightly encouraging is I dosed off on the sofa this evening and woke up feeling slightly refreshed: previously, no matter how much I rested I just felt fatigued.

The first day, my resting heart rate spiked as high as 61 but it soon settled back to 49 which is close to normal. My respiratory rate has not changed at all so no breathing issues that I can see.

For vaccines, I'm too young for a booster and no health conditions. I'd need to wait 28 days since my positive test even if I did qualify, but it depends if they keep the six month timescale in there because - if so - I will need to wait until January or February.

Best wishes


Mark.

[Julian]

I've got a bit of a busy day but unless someone beats me to it I will try to to do a bit of searching on avenues of research and progress for new delivery methods in the next few days.

- Julian

Hope the eyes are doing well Julian
(apologies if this is off topic - please consider it a heartfelt and friendly wave)

-sd

Hi sd. Sorry for the delayed response, it's been a bit of a busy few days. Thanks for the "heartfelt and friendly wave", consider this the equally friendly and heartfelt wave back.

The eye seems to be continuing to improve albeit extremely slowly. One of the doctors I have been seeing said it might well take another year for maximum potential improvement to be achieved, I have however already got to the stage where the sight has recovered enough that if I went blind in the other eye(*) and was forced to use only the bad one I could at least recognise faces, use the computer and read books although both of the later with some difficulty right now (very large fonts or magnification aids) but that's a significant improvement on none of those things being remotely possible 6 months ago so I've taken myself off the surgery list on the strong advice of one of the doctors (the other one still wants to operate) and hopefully I'll feel happier and happier with that decision over the coming year if my sight does continue to improve.

Back to topic as I promised (sort of) in my last post I did do a brief internet search on the state of play on research into non-injection Covid-19 vaccines and there is indeed a lot going on. I found one article that seems to be a quite nice and reasonably brief summary dated 3rd August this year. It's just something I found via a Google search so I can't vouch for the expertise of the author or the credibility of the web site but it's mostly a simple summary of what work is underway so I don't think that sort of info is particularly subject to distortion...

https://www.labiotech.eu/trends-news/or ... 9-vaccine/

[ Note that Oxford University is one of the 10 organisations listed in the table as having a dog in this particular race. It's discussed a bit in the text of the article. ]

- Julian

(*) There is no problem in the other eye that makes hints that might happen but we computer scientists do like redundancy for critical systems don't we!