Omicron variant

[Wizard]

Interesting that Sajid Javid has just confirmed that the NHS is now cancelling urgent procedures due to the volume of COVID cases in hospitals. In the same Andrew Marr interview he also said there are only a very small number of Omicron hospitalisations. It still seems to me that reporting focussed on Omicron may be masking a significant upswing in Delta cases.

[Julian]

Interesting that Sajid Javid has just confirmed that the NHS is now cancelling urgent procedures due to the volume of COVID cases in hospitals. In the same Andrew Marr interview he also said there are only a very small number of Omicron hospitalisations. It still seems to me that reporting focussed on Omicron may be masking a significant upswing in Delta cases.

I didn’t see the interview so I’m not sure if he mentioned it explicitly but as I understand it the pressures on the NHS are not purely down to the volume of Covid-19 cases in hospitals but rather are down to a combination of the number of cases in hospital plus the reduction is staff numbers in hospitals due to a lot of NHS staff having to self isolate after a positive test. The last I heard that was about 10% of staff and with the massive increase in case numbers in the community might well be higher by now.

I know pretty much everyone here will know this but I think it’s worth actively reminding ourselves now and then that it’s not just the number of people in hospital that drives the pressures when the number of people hospitalised with Covid-19 is the only figure that is published daily on the U.K. dashboard and one needs to dig further to get an idea of NHS staff attrition at any given time so it can be all too easy to focus solely on that first number. Personally I think government spokespeople should be making sure that they do mention both effects whenever talking to the media about Covid-19 pressure on the NHS.

- Julian

[Wizard]

Interesting that Sajid Javid has just confirmed that the NHS is now cancelling urgent procedures due to the volume of COVID cases in hospitals. In the same Andrew Marr interview he also said there are only a very small number of Omicron hospitalisations. It still seems to me that reporting focussed on Omicron may be masking a significant upswing in Delta cases.

I didn’t see the interview so I’m not sure if he mentioned it explicitly but as I understand it the pressures on the NHS are not purely down to the volume of Covid-19 cases in hospitals but rather are down to a combination of the number of cases in hospital plus the reduction is staff numbers in hospitals due to a lot of NHS staff having to self isolate after a positive test. The last I heard that was about 10% of staff and with the massive increase in case numbers in the community might well be higher by now.

I know pretty much everyone here will know this but I think it’s worth actively reminding ourselves now and then that it’s not just the number of people in hospital that drives the pressures when the number of people hospitalised with Covid-19 is the only figure that is published daily on the U.K. dashboard and one needs to dig further to get an idea of NHS staff attrition at any given time so it can be all too easy to focus solely on that first number. Personally I think government spokespeople should be making sure that they do mention both effects whenever talking to the media about Covid-19 pressure on the NHS.

- Julian

I don't think it is on iPlayer yet.

That is a good point, to be fair to Marr and Javid they did discuss this too, but without any quantification as far as I recall.

Edit: it is available to view now...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... w-19122021

At about 48:40 Javid there are currently 85 certain Omicron cases in hospital, so it does not like Omicron is what is currently causing the cancellation of urgent procedures.

[NotSure]

I didn’t see the interview so I’m not sure if he mentioned it explicitly but as I understand it the pressures on the NHS are not purely down to the volume of Covid-19 cases in hospitals but rather are down to a combination of the number of cases in hospital plus the reduction is staff numbers in hospitals due to a lot of NHS staff having to self isolate after a positive test. The last I heard that was about 10% of staff and with the massive increase in case numbers in the community might well be higher by now.

Recent research, first in SA, now replicated in UK, indicates that O is 70x better at reproducing in the upper respiratory tract, but 10x worse in the lungs. Hence huge number of mainly mild cases. Isolation by positive NHS staff may, in the short term at least, be the bigger problem (both studies were careful to state that the reduced severity may be over compensated by the vastly increased transmission, with regards to eventual serious illness statistics).

[88V8]

.... Javid there are currently 85 certain Omicron cases in hospital, so it does not like Omicron is what is currently causing the cancellation of urgent procedures.

Much the same was said on Wato. Talking to an NHS female who said the main problem is that they have a lot of staff isolating. She is expecting up to a third of staff to be off by New Year. I wonder how many are unvaccinated.

V8

[9873210]

South Africa cases may have peeked Dec 16th.

Worryingly the South Africa deaths were bad on Monday and Wednesday. The seven day average is now 52 per day, almost double the 27 deaths per day of a week ago. Too soon to tell if this is a blip or the onset of deaths four weeks after the onset Omicron cases.

Edit to add data source:
https://sacoronavirus.co.za/category/daily-cases/

[9873210]

Today's SA deaths were 551. Almost certainly "cleaning up after the Holidays" so we can ignore the 400% increase in a day. However, it does mean that the last few weeks were probably not as good as they seemed at the time. Deaths have been running above 100 per day.

So SA now has a clear wave of deaths from Omicron. It looks likely that this will be significantly smaller than for prior waves, but it's still early to call a top and say how much smaller. As of today, Omicron deaths are about 7% of total Delta deaths.

Meanwhile in NY hospitalisations hit a new record, ICU cases are increasing fast, and deaths are rising.

[Steveam]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-60039138

Best wishes,

Steve

[Hallucigenia]

Omicron-specific vaccine starts trials :
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-relea ... cron-based