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England to surpass Wales again

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
UncleEbenezer
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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#465828

Postby UncleEbenezer » December 14th, 2021, 6:16 pm

XFool wrote:Covid: New restrictions in Wales likely within weeks

BBC News

New restrictions are likely "in the next few weeks" in Wales to deal with the new Omicron variant, the health minister has said.

Umm...

Yeah. Lots of new changes in England too. Work-from-home-if-possible is too big to be ignored.

Back when I posted, it looked like the one change in England vs none in Wales. Within a week or so we had more changes, and now it's getting harder to cross-reference differences between the two countries.

Today's news was cancellation of an xmas carols event this Friday. Though a bigger one on Saturday is still on with full orchestra and chorus (different organisers). No consistency anywhere. Not that that matters if the proposed control population (Wales) is seeing a similar range of reactions.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#465834

Postby XFool » December 14th, 2021, 6:33 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:
XFool wrote:Covid: New restrictions in Wales likely within weeks

BBC News

New restrictions are likely "in the next few weeks" in Wales to deal with the new Omicron variant, the health minister has said.

Umm...

Yeah. Lots of new changes in England too. Work-from-home-if-possible is too big to be ignored.

Back when I posted, it looked like the one change in England vs none in Wales. Within a week or so we had more changes, and now it's getting harder to cross-reference differences between the two countries.

Today's news was cancellation of an xmas carols event this Friday. Though a bigger one on Saturday is still on with full orchestra and chorus (different organisers). No consistency anywhere.

Or to put it simply (as I have previously): "No controlled population here".

UncleEbenezer
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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#465921

Postby UncleEbenezer » December 15th, 2021, 12:45 am

XFool wrote:Or to put it simply (as I have previously): "No controlled population here".

Who said anything about a controlled population?

You seem to have strange ideas about what makes a control group: something that can exist in a laboratory, but not in a population. Trouble there is, laboratory studies are often at odds with population realities. Controlling your samples as you seem to expect eliminates the realities of diverse populations.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#465934

Postby servodude » December 15th, 2021, 2:26 am

UncleEbenezer wrote:
XFool wrote:Or to put it simply (as I have previously): "No controlled population here".

Who said anything about a controlled population?

You seem to have strange ideas about what makes a control group: something that can exist in a laboratory, but not in a population. Trouble there is, laboratory studies are often at odds with population realities. Controlling your samples as you seem to expect eliminates the realities of diverse populations.


indeed!
we're getting in to the realms of "assuming a spherical horse" here at times

practically we can adjust for lots of things within data sets - that's why modern bombs fly right
- just got to be careful as to not cancel out variables or whole dimensions too readily

- sd

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#465990

Postby XFool » December 15th, 2021, 11:06 am

UncleEbenezer wrote:
XFool wrote:Or to put it simply (as I have previously): "No controlled population here".

Who said anything about a controlled population?

You seem to have strange ideas about what makes a control group: something that can exist in a laboratory, but not in a population. Trouble there is, laboratory studies are often at odds with population realities. Controlling your samples as you seem to expect eliminates the realities of diverse populations.

Let me see...

You originally made a prediction about rising infection rates(?) caused by wearing masks.
You then denied you'd made a prediction about rising infection rates caused by wearing masks.

You spoke about how Wales and England provided us with an effective control population for your prediction.
You now deny that you ever said anything about a control population.

When are you going to deny you ever posted anything on this thread at all?

UncleEbenezer
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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#466049

Postby UncleEbenezer » December 15th, 2021, 1:01 pm

XFool wrote:
UncleEbenezer wrote:
XFool wrote:Or to put it simply (as I have previously): "No controlled population here".

Who said anything about a controlled population?

You seem to have strange ideas about what makes a control group: something that can exist in a laboratory, but not in a population. Trouble there is, laboratory studies are often at odds with population realities. Controlling your samples as you seem to expect eliminates the realities of diverse populations.

Let me see...

You originally made a prediction about rising infection rates(?) caused by wearing masks.
You then denied you'd made a prediction about rising infection rates caused by wearing masks.

Whoosh. As explained ad nauseam.

You spoke about how Wales and England provided us with an effective control population for your prediction.
You now deny that you ever said anything about a control population.

Wrong twice over.
First: despite all the subsequent changes, it is still as I originally said as near as we're going to get to a control population.
Second: I may have spoken of a control population, a control sample, or a controlled experiment. Your bizarre idea was a controlled population, something you won't find even in a compliant society like Singapore, let alone Blighty. The word "control" has a well-defined meaning in statistics, that is understood by scientists, and is entirely different to your "controlled population".
When are you going to deny you ever posted anything on this thread at all?

You seem intent on erecting and demolishing irrelevant strawmen (from which I infer such profound ignorance of science and statistics that you're probably unaware of it). Other posters here have had interesting things to say.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#466062

Postby XFool » December 15th, 2021, 1:21 pm

viewtopic.php?p=462094#p462094
UncleEbenezer wrote:Seems [those in power] have declared masks mandatoy in England again. So now the scene is set for us to close the gap in infection rates with Wales, and resume the lead we consistently had before the [Deletion] rule was dropped in England in July.

I predict that gap will close and we'll be ahead again within a month. Unless we get a rapid reverse-ferret.


viewtopic.php?p=462140#p462140
UncleEbenezer wrote:
XFool wrote:...You think it's masks causing COVID infections? :?

Contributing to the spread.


viewtopic.php?p=462184#p462184
UncleEbenezer wrote:
servodude wrote:- but it's a really long bow to take those and extrapolate to "masks increasing transmission"

Of course! I was positing possible explanations. The evidence (insofar as any exists) is in the statistics, not in my observations nor in that picture.

We know covid incidences rose (from a low level) when masks became mandatory 16 months ago. I publicly predicted that.

This time, we have something closer to a control sample, with Wales having had the mask mandate all along. I'm offering another prediction. Let's see where we are in a month's time.


More than myself have been mystified by your gnomic and unexplained comments - in a dynamic and changing situation (vaccinations and now Omicrom) - and no understandable explanation has been forthcoming. I don't think there is any point now adding to this misbegotten thread. It seems to have degenerated into an exercise in extended silliness.

I am now going to do something that is entirely out of character for me (and against my usual 'policy') - ask for this thread to be closed.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#466073

Postby UncleEbenezer » December 15th, 2021, 1:40 pm

XFool wrote:I am now going to do something that is entirely out of character for me (and against my usual 'policy') - ask for this thread to be closed.

Golly, are you *that* terrified of me being proved right? It might not even happen!

Puts me in mind of Bush&Blair: We know he has weapons of mass destruction and can deploy them in 45 minutes. So we're getting rid of Dr Blix's independent team and are appointing ourselves judge&jury and, erm, executioner. Saw that one coming when Blair played the anti-French card, with the lie that France would veto invasion under any circumstances in the UN.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#466075

Postby XFool » December 15th, 2021, 1:48 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:
XFool wrote:I am now going to do something that is entirely out of character for me (and against my usual 'policy') - ask for this thread to be closed.

Golly, are you *that* terrified of me being proved right? It might not even happen!

On the contrary, if YOU had actually bothered to read my posts (seems you didn't...) you would know I specifically allowed that your "prediction" (that isn't a prediction and anyway nobody is allowed to know what it is really about...) could come 'true'. My point (one of them) was: So what? How would it ever "prove" anything? How could it? How could we know?

I even allowed that your whole thesis (but it seems we have to guess what that is...) could even be TRUE. But again, how would we know?

Or, summing up, and putting it as simply as possible: What's The Point?

I see none.
Last edited by XFool on December 15th, 2021, 1:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#466077

Postby dealtn » December 15th, 2021, 1:50 pm

XFool wrote:I am now going to do something that is entirely out of character for me (and against my usual 'policy') - ask for this thread to be closed.


You weren't the OP. What gives you, or anyone (bar the OP and a Mod), the right to do so?

You could effectively achieve the same end result for you personally by no longer reading or contributing to it. What's wrong with that alternative that doesn't impinge on other Fools that might prefer it to continue?

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#466079

Postby jfgw » December 15th, 2021, 1:54 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:Golly, are you *that* terrified of me being proved right? It might not even happen!


I challenge you to bring to the thread some real evidence. This applies to all sides of the argument.

I found this; I haven't read it yet — I wanted to get this in before the thread was closed:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 353v1.full


Julian F. G. W.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#466080

Postby XFool » December 15th, 2021, 1:55 pm

dealtn wrote:
XFool wrote:I am now going to do something that is entirely out of character for me (and against my usual 'policy') - ask for this thread to be closed.

You weren't the OP. What gives you, or anyone (bar the OP and a Mod), the right to do so?

WOT?

I give up... :roll:

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#466081

Postby XFool » December 15th, 2021, 1:58 pm

jfgw wrote:
UncleEbenezer wrote:Golly, are you *that* terrified of me being proved right? It might not even happen!

I challenge you to bring to the thread some real evidence. This applies to all sides of the argument.

Agreed. But just some consistent, cogent, understandable point would at least be a start!

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#474196

Postby UncleEbenezer » January 18th, 2022, 7:37 pm

Well, the data are in. I've just computed weekly figures, starting from the date I posted this thread (Nov. 30th).

The first part of December was the time when this was most relevant: the new rule affected England, while there were no substantial changes in the rules elsewhere. By the middle of the month (Discussion from December 11th on this thread), other potentially-relevant changes were emerging, and from Boxing Day there were major rule changes everywhere but England.

The test I posited was the England rate surpassing the Wales rate. Let's see what happened, without further comment. The figures I used are the rolling averages for the 7 days ending on each named date: these should be less noisy than single-day rates.

Covid new cases rate, ratio of English rate to Welsh rate

Nov. 30: 0.9375
Dec. 07: 0.9988
Dec. 14: 1.2135
Dec. 21: 1.2653
Dec. 28: 0.7899
Jan. 04: 0.8022
Jan. 11: 1.4413


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