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England to surpass Wales again

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
UncleEbenezer
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England to surpass Wales again

#462094

Postby UncleEbenezer » November 30th, 2021, 3:31 pm

Seems [those in power] have declared masks mandatoy in England again. So now the scene is set for us to close the gap in infection rates with Wales, and resume the lead we consistently had before the [Deletion] rule was dropped in England in July.

I predict that gap will close and we'll be ahead again within a month. Unless we get a rapid reverse-ferret.
Moderator Message:
Couple of deletions. This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions. Thanks - Chris

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462104

Postby XFool » November 30th, 2021, 4:26 pm

...You think it's masks causing COVID infections? :?

And, since the masks have been brought back due to increasing incidents of an even more infectious variety, that seems to me a bet you can't 'lose'!
A bit like me claiming umbrellas 'cause' rain. :)

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462115

Postby Lootman » November 30th, 2021, 4:51 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:Seems [those in power] have declared masks mandatoy in England again. So now the scene is set for us to close the gap in infection rates with Wales, and resume the lead we consistently had before the [Deletion] rule was dropped in England in July.

I predict that gap will close and we'll be ahead again within a month. Unless we get a rapid reverse-ferret.

I have wondered myself whether masks might paradoxically increase infections. If the mask is providing any protection at all then the virus must accumulate on either the inside or the outside of the mask, or both. Then people keep touching them, removing them and putting them back on, placing them on the pub or restaurant table, putting their hands here and there, and so on.

So could face coverings actually be powerful vectors for the virus, which otherwise would just dissipate in the atmosphere, fall to the ground and die off?

Professional medical staff know how to handle masks, how often to change them, and so on. But I am fairly certain people wear the same face covering for days at a time, maybe weeks at a time, coughing into them, sneezing into them. It's kind of disgusting when you think about it, like using the same cloth handkerchief for days when you have a cold.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462140

Postby UncleEbenezer » November 30th, 2021, 5:56 pm

Moderator Message:
Couple of deletions. This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions. Thanks - Chris

I don't see how that was political. It's not even as if there's an opposition party opposing it!

XFool wrote:...You think it's masks causing COVID infections? :?

Contributing to the spread.

That mince pie didn't cause my obesity, but contributed to the spread. On a national scale, the supermarkets have shelves full of them ...

And, since the masks have been brought back due to increasing incidents of an even more infectious variety, that seems to me a bet you can't 'lose'!

I understood it was something about a variant of concern whose characteristics are not yet understood.

But in any case, I wasn't talking about a rise or fall in raw numbers. I was talking about the comparison between two samples, England and Wales. That's as near as we're going to get to a proper controlled experiment:
  • The two samples are mostly-similar populations. As near to all-else-being-equal - from cultural influences to vaccine rollouts - as we're likely to get.
  • A change has just been announced for one (England) but not for the other (Wales). The change brings back a fairly close alignment of the rules.
  • There is a baseline: the rules were aligned before July. Back then, Welsh infection levels were consistently lower than English ones.
  • Between July and today, there has been one substantial difference in the rules. Namely, those masks.
  • Other rule changes (such as schools, workplaces and leisure returning) have affected both populations, but have not substantially differed.
  • During that time, Welsh infection levels have soared above English levels.
  • Now our rules are re-aligning.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462147

Postby XFool » November 30th, 2021, 6:32 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:
XFool wrote:...You think it's masks causing COVID infections? :?

Contributing to the spread.

I understood it was something about a variant of concern whose characteristics are not yet understood.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/24/scientists-warn-of-new-covid-variant-with-high-number-of-mutations

"Scientists have said a new Covid variant that carries an “extremely high number” of mutations may drive further waves of disease by evading the body’s defences.

Only 10 cases in three countries have been confirmed by genomic sequencing, but the variant has sparked serious concern among some researchers because a number of the mutations may help the virus evade immunity.
"

UncleEbenezer wrote:But in any case, I wasn't talking about a rise or fall in raw numbers. I was talking about the comparison between two samples, England and Wales. That's as near as we're going to get to a proper controlled experiment:
  • The two samples are mostly-similar populations. As near to all-else-being-equal - from cultural influences to vaccine rollouts - as we're likely to get.
  • A change has just been announced for one (England) but not for the other (Wales). The change brings back a fairly close alignment of the rules.
  • There is a baseline: the rules were aligned before July. Back then, Welsh infection levels were consistently lower than English ones.
  • Between July and today, there has been one substantial difference in the rules. Namely, those masks.
  • Other rule changes (such as schools, workplaces and leisure returning) have affected both populations, but have not substantially differed.
  • During that time, Welsh infection levels have soared above English levels.
  • Now our rules are re-aligning.

Why?

I assume the rules in Wales changed because of rising concern wrt cases. At this point the rules in England have been changed because of a now changed situation - which may, or may not, lead to greater rates of infection and which may, or may not, lead to more serious cases of illness.

It seems to me about as far as you could get from a controlled experiment.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462157

Postby Hallucigenia » November 30th, 2021, 7:21 pm

Lootman wrote:I have wondered myself whether masks might paradoxically increase infections. If the mask is providing any protection at all then the virus must accumulate on either the inside or the outside of the mask, or both. Then people keep touching them, removing them and putting them back on, placing them on the pub or restaurant table, putting their hands here and there, and so on.

So could face coverings actually be powerful vectors for the virus, which otherwise would just dissipate in the atmosphere, fall to the ground and die off?

Professional medical staff know how to handle masks, how often to change them, and so on. But I am fairly certain people wear the same face covering for days at a time, maybe weeks at a time, coughing into them, sneezing into them. It's kind of disgusting when you think about it, like using the same cloth handkerchief for days when you have a cold.


Not this again. No, there is pretty overwhelming evidence that masks are a massive net positive - this is an airborne disease, you need to worry about it getting into your lungs not a handful of virus particles getting onto your hands. Have a read of this thread :

https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/sta ... 3479089154

and for something more formal :
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... -cov2.html

Image

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462159

Postby GrahamPlatt » November 30th, 2021, 7:31 pm

When I read the OP there weren’t yet any replies. I didn’t reply because I couldn’t understand what was meant - I thought it was a form of sarcasm. I’m really surprised that you actually seem to believe that masks promote contagion UE. Not at all what I’d have expected of you.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462161

Postby Sorcery » November 30th, 2021, 7:53 pm

Hallucigenia wrote:
Lootman wrote:I have wondered myself whether masks might paradoxically increase infections. If the mask is providing any protection at all then the virus must accumulate on either the inside or the outside of the mask, or both. Then people keep touching them, removing them and putting them back on, placing them on the pub or restaurant table, putting their hands here and there, and so on.

So could face coverings actually be powerful vectors for the virus, which otherwise would just dissipate in the atmosphere, fall to the ground and die off?

Professional medical staff know how to handle masks, how often to change them, and so on. But I am fairly certain people wear the same face covering for days at a time, maybe weeks at a time, coughing into them, sneezing into them. It's kind of disgusting when you think about it, like using the same cloth handkerchief for days when you have a cold.


Not this again. No, there is pretty overwhelming evidence that masks are a massive net positive - this is an airborne disease, you need to worry about it getting into your lungs not a handful of virus particles getting onto your hands. Have a read of this thread :

https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/sta ... 3479089154

and for something more formal :
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... -cov2.html

Image


The picture is quite compelling evidence until you realise it's about bacterial spread and not viral.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462162

Postby Hallucigenia » November 30th, 2021, 8:01 pm

Sorcery wrote:
Hallucigenia wrote:Image


The picture is quite compelling evidence until you realise it's about bacterial spread and not viral.


You don't generally get "bare" viruses staying viable for long as they dehydrate, the threat comes from viruses in fine aerosols, that are roughly the same size as bacteria.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462165

Postby Sorcery » November 30th, 2021, 8:05 pm

Hallucigenia wrote:img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FCOxqx2UcBYsDEB?format=jpg&name=small[/img]


Sorcery wrote:The picture is quite compelling evidence until you realise it's about bacterial spread and not viral.


You don't generally get "bare" viruses staying viable for long as they dehydrate, the threat comes from viruses in fine aerosols, that are roughly the same size as bacteria.[/quote]

From https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-a ... difference
Size
Bacteria are giants when compared to viruses. The smallest bacteria are about 0.4 micron (one millionth of a meter) in diameter while viruses range in size from 0.02 to 0.25 micron. This makes most viruses submicroscopic, unable to be seen in an ordinary light microscope. They are typically studied with an electron microscope.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462166

Postby daveh » November 30th, 2021, 8:09 pm

The point is that the fine aerosol droplets (containing virus particles) are about the same size as bacteria, so will be stopped by a mask in the same way as the bacteria have been in the picture.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462170

Postby servodude » November 30th, 2021, 8:26 pm

GrahamPlatt wrote:When I read the OP there weren’t yet any replies. I didn’t reply because I couldn’t understand what was meant - I thought it was a form of sarcasm.


That would be an occasion of Poe's Law (been mentioned round these parts a couple of times and I'm glad it has a name)

-sd

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462171

Postby servodude » November 30th, 2021, 8:37 pm

daveh wrote:The point is that the fine aerosol droplets (containing virus particles) are about the same size as bacteria, so will be stopped by a mask in the same way as the bacteria have been in the picture.


Before I saw this post I had rolled my eyes, cracked my knuckles, poured a coffee (Aeropressed Ethiopian single origin) and sat down to compose a post that would have been identical save for a couple of oblique sweary words and an emoji.
Thanks for saving me the effort :D
Though we might see a "well water's mostly hydrogen and they're the smallest molecule"; who knows? I don't that's for sure!

-sd

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462176

Postby UncleEbenezer » November 30th, 2021, 9:15 pm

Sorcery wrote:The picture is quite compelling evidence until you realise it's about bacterial spread and not viral.


Compelling on a very limited subject that bears little resemblance to real life. And it's comparing abnormal things: how many people (other than small children) sneeze without covering the mouth/nose for the instant of the sneeze?

It doesn't account for the effects of masks on making you breathe harder. When you're panting and sweating, you're into a whole different ballgame to breathing normally (including talking or singing - and I hate to think what they call singing with a mask). And if you have the merest hint of a cough - or of the mucus that causes it - you're going to cough a whole lot more in a mask.

Neither does it account for masks worn and then left casually in so many places, like on a table in a train, rather than disposed of in a proper hospital incinerator.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462181

Postby servodude » November 30th, 2021, 9:42 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:
Sorcery wrote:The picture is quite compelling evidence until you realise it's about bacterial spread and not viral.


Compelling on a very limited subject that bears little resemblance to real life. And it's comparing abnormal things: how many people (other than small children) sneeze without covering the mouth/nose for the instant of the sneeze?

It doesn't account for the effects of masks on making you breathe harder. When you're panting and sweating, you're into a whole different ballgame to breathing normally (including talking or singing - and I hate to think what they call singing with a mask). And if you have the merest hint of a cough - or of the mucus that causes it - you're going to cough a whole lot more in a mask.

Neither does it account for masks worn and then left casually in so many places, like on a table in a train, rather than disposed of in a proper hospital incinerator.


Ah come on! - the point you quoted was tin foil hat bad science tosh don't give it air

Your's however have a good deal of merit - all the points you've made are valid (except for the one that defends the tosh)

They explain why mask wearing can be uncomfortable, why you should change them regularly and describe how "some people" just act badly and selfishly
- but it's a really long bow to take those and extrapolate to "masks increasing transmission"
- unless you're fond of the kind of reasoning that concludes watching the original Ghostbusters kills folk https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/is-watching-the-1984-ghostbusters-movie-killing-people-a-statistician-s-perspective

Let's make sure we connect our middles, get our denominators correct, are careful not to infer causality from correlation, and keep an eye out for statistical paradoxes
- and if you see someone discard a mask badly - you have my blessing to turn your blunderbuss upon them

- sd

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462184

Postby UncleEbenezer » November 30th, 2021, 10:01 pm

servodude wrote:- but it's a really long bow to take those and extrapolate to "masks increasing transmission"
- sd


Of course! I was positing possible explanations. The evidence (insofar as any exists) is in the statistics, not in my observations nor in that picture.

We know covid incidences rose (from a low level) when masks became mandatory 16 months ago. I publicly predicted that.

This time, we have something closer to a control sample, with Wales having had the mask mandate all along. I'm offering another prediction. Let's see where we are in a month's time.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462185

Postby XFool » November 30th, 2021, 10:10 pm

The only thing approaching a proper controlled experiment would be two equal* populations: one masked, one not.

This we just don't have.

* "equal" as is equal demographics, equal vaccination rates, equal starting point in case rates - which you are saying we don't have.

One of the most striking things in a recent BBC article was sixteen mini-charts showing the time sequence of cases in different European countries. All very different in shape.
Last edited by XFool on November 30th, 2021, 10:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462186

Postby Hallucigenia » November 30th, 2021, 10:11 pm

Sorcery wrote:From https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-a ... difference
Size
Bacteria are giants when compared to viruses. The smallest bacteria are about 0.4 micron (one millionth of a meter) in diameter while viruses range in size from 0.02 to 0.25 micron. This makes most viruses submicroscopic, unable to be seen in an ordinary light microscope. They are typically studied with an electron microscope.


Err yep, I'm familiar with the fact that viruses are generally smaller than bacteria. As it happens, SARS2 is a relatively big virus, about 0.1 micron.

But I'll say it again - you tend not to get viable virus in the smallest particles. And big droplets tend to drop out from the air pretty quickly, so although they can deliver a big dose of viruses, they're not such a significant router of transmission. The real threat comes from aerosols in the 1-10 micron range - the same size as bacteria.

See eg Wang et al : https://journals.plos.org/plosone/artic ... ne.0241539
Masking, however, can effectively block around 94% of the viruses that may otherwise remain airborne after 10 seconds.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462187

Postby Hallucigenia » November 30th, 2021, 10:13 pm

XFool wrote:The only thing approaching a proper controlled experiment would be two equal populations: one masked, one not.


Along the lines of this ?

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/upg ... amatically

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462201

Postby UncleEbenezer » November 30th, 2021, 11:17 pm

XFool wrote:The only thing approaching a proper controlled experiment would be two equal* populations: one masked, one not.

From July to now we had something close to that. Wales with the mask rule, England without. Welsh infection rates soared above English ones.

But that's in the past and present. It's not a valid subject for a prediction posted now. So instead I'm predicting the outcome of the rules converging.

[edit to add] To preempt potential confusion, I'm talking about mask laws. Which is not quite the same thing as masked vs unmasked populations (let alone individuals - you didn't say that, but others in this thread are implicitly doing so).
Last edited by UncleEbenezer on November 30th, 2021, 11:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.


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