England to surpass Wales again

[dealtn]

P.S. I am suggesting that I expect Sir Jeremy Farrar would know far, far more than I ever will about all this kind of thing and that, with that in mind, you might like to ask him to explain to you what the total significance and implication is of the term "infectious" when speaking in the context of a disease caused by a mutating (because that is what they do) viral agent that has somehow (mysteriously?) spread to all human occupied parts of the world (Antarctica?). i.e. A global pandemic of a viral disease.

I suspect he might know. That is all.

I would go much further than that. He is extremely well qualified, and one of many voices it is reasonable to listen to on the science of virology. No doubt he has much to contribute too on the practical societal and political responses to any endemic or pandemic outbreak.

However you say "that is all". Yet you have been pointing out that Covid is infectious over multiple posts and threads long before your introduction of him as a respected source. We all (I think as I haven't encountered anyone here arguing it isn't) believe that too. So given "that is all" can we now all agree it's infectious, and we don't need you to remind us, or reintroduce that fact again? Or is there actually some other argument you want to make, or an extension of the infectious state?

[XFool]

I believe somebody once wrote a play called: The Play That Goes Wrong

http://theplaythatgoeswrong.com

All things considered, perhaps at this point this thread: "England to surpass Wales again" should now be retitled to: "The Thread That Goes Nowhere"?

Bearing in mind some previous comment on TLF, it might at least save some people from wasting their time.
Just a suggestion.

[GrahamPlatt]

More or Less. Does wearing a mask halve your chances of catching covid-19?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct2dl0

TLDR = meta-analysis says so, but rct says ~20%. Whatever, all studies say they’re beneficial.

[Lootman]

More or Less. Does wearing a mask halve your chances of catching covid-19?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct2dl0

TLDR = meta-analysis says so, but rct says ~20%. Whatever, all studies say they’re beneficial.

Beneficial? Sure. But is that net beneficial or gross beneficial?

Meaning that whilst mask wearing may reduce infections, that still doesn't mean it is worthwhile. It also has to meet the criterion of being so beneficial that it outweighs the negatives of mask wearing. And I am not sure anyone has done a convincing cost/benefit analysis on that.

[Julian]

More or Less. Does wearing a mask halve your chances of catching covid-19?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct2dl0

TLDR = meta-analysis says so, but rct says ~20%. Whatever, all studies say they’re beneficial.

Beneficial? Sure. But is that net beneficial or gross beneficial?

Meaning that whilst mask wearing may reduce infections, that still doesn't mean it is worthwhile. It also has to meet the criterion of being so beneficial that it outweighs the negatives of mask wearing. And I am not sure anyone has done a convincing cost/benefit analysis on that.

In terms of a generic logical argument (that’s not meant to be a pejorative characterisation) I completely accept your point but from my possibly blinkered view in this particular instance I am struggling to see the negatives of mask wearing that should be considered in your suggested net-benefit analysis; could you please elaborate. Maybe slightly cheekily I will attempt to narrow the distance between the goalposts by saying that my assumption when looking at negatives is that we are not looking at mask wearing in perpetuity. My take is that some caution in the next few weeks as data on Omicron comes in is not unwarranted so right now I am unwilling to condemn the government for its current stance (albeit with some concerns about lack of clarity re messaging and lack of attention to detail) but if Omicron turns out to be less threatening than some believe(*) I will most definitely judge them on how quickly they reverse the current restrictions and go back to where we were before the big last Thursday South Africa announcement.

- Julian

(*) I’ve been following some specialist virology channels and certainly some of those, e.g. TWIV (This Week in Virology), seem to think that the panic in some quarters re Omicron is excessive for a number of reasons albeit they do caveat that with the fact that almost everything is personal hunches right now because there is not enough data to be definitive about any properties of Omicron just yet. Hopefully this “we don”t have enough data” dead zone will be over in a month or so, at least to the extent of being able to assess the impact with some non-trivial level of confidence.

[UncleEbenezer]

This week I've observed some further behavioural factors likely to have a bigger influence than masks. Namely, much higher levels of isolation:

On Wednesday, I was walking past my usual barber shop, and saw two barbers in there, with no customers. I took advantage to get chopped without having to wait. While she worked on me, I asked my barber whether their business was affected by new-variant panic. She said yes, very much, and many businesses were suffering again.

Then I noticed the return of the ritual of keeping a long distance outdoors, as people stepped aside into driveways/etc or into the road to let others pass at a distance on the regular road. By no means universal, but quite a few people were doing it. Pointless in itself, but if they're doing that outdoors they're probably also avoiding contact where it matters.

Now the million dollar question: is this behavioural change

1. based solely on news reports of a new variant (which would apply more-or-less equally to all populations)?
2. a reaction to the rules tightening in England, and affecting England much more than others?

If the latter then my prediction is buggered.

[servodude]

This week I've observed some further behavioural factors likely to have a bigger influence than masks. Namely, much higher levels of isolation:

On Wednesday, I was walking past my usual barber shop, and saw two barbers in there, with no customers. I took advantage to get chopped without having to wait. While she worked on me, I asked my barber whether their business was affected by new-variant panic. She said yes, very much, and many businesses were suffering again.

Then I noticed the return of the ritual of keeping a long distance outdoors, as people stepped aside into driveways/etc or into the road to let others pass at a distance on the regular road. By no means universal, but quite a few people were doing it. Pointless in itself, but if they're doing that outdoors they're probably also avoiding contact where it matters.

Now the million dollar question: is this behavioural change

1. based solely on news reports of a new variant (which would apply more-or-less equally to all populations)?
2. a reaction to the rules tightening in England, and affecting England much more than others?

If the latter then my prediction is buggered.

Weren't they all meant to doing that the last time masks were introduced and everything went to pot?
- but yeah, the effect of masks in transmission reduction (...or increase ) would be overwhelmed by removing the situations where they make a difference

I think that at this time of year the effect of alcohol would be an interesting variable to investigate
- sd

[XFool]

This week I've observed some further behavioural factors likely to have a bigger influence than masks. Namely, much higher levels of isolation:

Now the million dollar question: is this behavioural change

1. based solely on news reports of a new variant (which would apply more-or-less equally to all populations)?
2. a reaction to the rules tightening in England, and affecting England much more than others?

If the latter then my prediction is buggered.

I think that at this time of year the effect of alcohol would be an interesting variable to investigate
- sd

Alcohol? Bang goes a proper controlled experiment!

[UncleEbenezer]

Weren't they all meant to doing that the last time masks were introduced and everything went to pot?

Last time was different. At the point where masks were introduced we'd been four months in lockdown, and had all been isolating. Infection rates were very low.

- but yeah, the effect of masks in transmission reduction (...or increase ) would be overwhelmed by removing the situations where they make a difference

Indeed, though it's all a matter of degree, and we still have nothing like lockdown-as-was. Though elements are returning, like (this past week) work from home if you can.

We have the Usual Suspects telling us to party at christmas. Coming from themhim it's probably calculated to have the opposite effect on as many as possible.

I think that at this time of year the effect of alcohol would be an interesting variable to investigate
- sd

One more reason to prefer Wales over Scotland as control population.

[UncleEbenezer]

Alcohol? Bang goes a proper controlled experiment!

Why? The experiment compares two populations whose behaviour around alcohol - from abstinence to abuse - is broadly similar. All part of other things being equal.

[servodude]

Alcohol? Bang goes a proper controlled experiment!

Why? The experiment compares two populations whose behaviour around alcohol - from abstinence to abuse - is broadly similar. All part of other things being equal.

Took part in a experiment once to check the effect of alcohol on balance - all you need are metered shots of aquavit, and a sway platform
- it was Midsommar and most of the balance lab had gone home for the holiday
it did get a little bit messy but there was some data... for a bit.. at the start

- sd

[Julian]

Alcohol? Bang goes a proper controlled experiment!

Why? The experiment compares two populations whose behaviour around alcohol - from abstinence to abuse - is broadly similar. All part of other things being equal.

Took part in a experiment once to check the effect of alcohol on balance - all you need are metered shots of aquavit, and a sway platform
- it was Midsommar and most of the balance lab had gone home for the holiday
it did get a little bit messy but there was some data... for a bit.. at the start

- sd

I’ve taken part in many such experIments, or at least that’s my excuse and I’m sticking to it.

- Julian

[UncleEbenezer]

I’ve taken part in many such experIments, or at least that’s my excuse and I’m sticking to it.

- Julian

You got impressively drunk on the placebo.

[9873210]

I think that at this time of year the effect of alcohol would be an interesting variable to investigate
- sd

It's airborne, hand sanitizer is mostly irrelevant.

[Mike4]

Took part in a experiment once to check the effect of alcohol on balance -

Regarding balance but to swerve off at a slight tangent, it's remarkably to stand on one leg with your eyes shut. Far more difficult than after five pints!

[servodude]

Took part in a experiment once to check the effect of alcohol on balance -

Regarding balance but to swerve off at a slight tangent, it's remarkably to stand on one leg with your eyes shut. Far more difficult than after five pints!

Put your hands on your hips and your feet touching heel to toe one in front of the other and look ahead
- it's at that point that having your eyes open makes the difference (if you close them and get a tiny push you'll likely not be able to recover without opening your eyes)

-sd

[XFool]

Alcohol? Bang goes a proper controlled experiment!

Why? The experiment compares two populations whose behaviour around alcohol - from abstinence to abuse - is broadly similar. All part of other things being equal.

I think you have stretched the idea of a "controlled experiment" beyond breaking point.

[XFool]

I think that at this time of year the effect of alcohol would be an interesting variable to investigate

It's airborne, hand sanitizer is mostly irrelevant.

Face masks doused in Cointreau? All part of Plan C?

[XFool]

Put your hands on your hips and your feet touching heel to toe one in front of the other and look ahead

Walking like that, called "Tandem Gait", reminds me of my day of tests spent in the local hospital clinic after my brain 'incident'.

[XFool]

Covid: New restrictions in Wales likely within weeks

BBC News

New restrictions are likely "in the next few weeks" in Wales to deal with the new Omicron variant, the health minister has said.

Umm...