Moan about other people and Covid

[Arborbridge]

The only point I would take on board from the OP is that the vaccine longevity is currently lacking.
A chap on Times Radio this morning was commenting that 6-monthly topups might be needed.
Hopefully not.

V8

It's a point, one which is coming to its conclusion by hindsight, and not actually a very pertinent point. Without the vaccine, our situation would have been far worse. Of course, the cynic would say: well prove it! We shouldn't rise to such debating tactics, however, but be confident in the knowledge we did the best that could be done in the circumstances.

The development of the vaccine was crucial in the fight, and no doubt better vaccines would emerge if necessary.

The OP seems to think we should have just have put up and suffered the death rate which would have resulted, only mitigated by some "treatments" which he apparently knows about, but no one else did. Perhaps bleach injections?

Now, I acknowledge that the "let it rip" philosophy has some merit, but you have to go into that knowing that deaths would be far higher.* It's a striclty survival of the fittest, and the OP might have been one to cop it if the rest of the population hadn't been vaccinated. His prerogative, I guess.
Think back to a world in which there was no knowledge of vaccines and look at the sufferring of ordinary folk. I wouldn't vote for that approach.

*indeed early on, for a week or two, I believe letting it rip to obtain herd immunity was considered, but soon rejected.

Arb.

[redsturgeon]

My sister went to Xmas lunch with some good friends, two couples who had kindly invited her to join them since her husband died this summer and she might have otherwise been alone.

They all tested negative on LFTs on Xmas day morning and had a lovely day, not worrying about masks or social distancing.

On boxing day my sister received a message that the hostess of the lunch had tested positive. This was later confirmed by PCR.

Since then none of the others have had covid, including the husband and the hostess's symptoms were mild and transient.

They were all in their 50s and double vaxxed and boosted.

What can we deduce from that?

For the anti vax brigade this is just proof that covid is not dangerous and we can safely ignore it. This conveniently ignores the fact that all five participants were triple vaxxed.

For others it shows the power of the vaccines.
First in giving a measure of protection from infection in the first place to four of the five.
Second the possibility that the person who caught covid was less ill as a result of the vaccine
Third, the possibility that the person who caught covid was less infectious and therefore protected the others.

John

[UncleEbenezer]

What can we deduce from that?

John

Nothing.

Unless perhaps you need to learn that the plural of anecdote is not data.

[Julian]

...
The ability to think for oneself has been completely lost in all this wall to wall nonsense.

I won't frame my counter response in such absolute terms as the above ("completely lost" as in no one at all retains their ability to think for themselves?) but one thing that I despair of during this pandemic is how many of the people proudly claiming to be "thinking for themselves" somehow think, often I suspect based on dipping into social media and accepting a few "alternative facts" without taking the time to try and gain at least enough understanding of the relevant science involved to be able to assess the validity of those alternative facts vs contradictory scientific data, that the opinions they then form are automatically superior to the opinions of professionals (medical doctors, virologists, immunologists and epidemiologists to name a few) who have dedicated decades of their lives to studying and practicing their appropriate disciplines and are now specifically applying that expertise to this pandemic. I think this cartoon sums this up for me...



For instance you say so confidently...

Folk who think that we can vaccinate our way out of the crisis. We cant. Vaccines protect the vaccinated person for a few months at best.

At best that claim is cherry-picked to be misleading, at worst it is totally wrong. Firstly a key role (in fact I would say "the" key role) of the vaccines is to provide the best possible immunity to severe disease not to provide sterilising immunity against any SARS-Cov2 infection; few vaccines get close to sterilising immunity. Protection against severe disease seems to be holding up far better than protection against mild and moderate Omicron-related infection that yes, after 2 doses does appear to wane very significantly, but protection against severe disease remains strong (https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/preli ... talisation).

The non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that slowed the spread of SARS-CoV2 in the earlier waves allowed time to vaccinate a large percentage of the population, particularly the vulnerable, such that many of them were able to delay becoming infected with SARS-CoV2 until they had strong immunity against severe disease and that has probably saved many lives. Despite Neil Fergusson's initial predictions of up to 500,000 deaths from the first wave being much derided that was a prediction of deaths if no NPIs were put in place. We did implement NPIs so we will never know for sure whether the death toll might indeed have got somewhere close to his prediction but personally, and dare I say it thinking for myself, I suspect the death toll would have been a lot higher in the first half of 2020 had we simply let the virus rip through the UK. The early NPIs also allowed time to develop new therapeutics and at least temper the surge of hospitalisations that we still saw during each wave thus allowing better medical care to be given to those whose infections did progress to the stage of severe illness.

- Julian

[daveh]

What can we deduce from that?

John

Nothing.

Unless perhaps you need to learn that the plural of anecdote is not data.

Well here's some data.

In January 21 when less 2m people had received their 1st dose cases were ~57,000 per day (7day average) and deaths ~14 days later were running at 1286 per day ( 7 day average). This January cases are ~175,000 per day (7 day average) but deaths are only running at 163 per day (7 day average). If they were at the same level as last year then we would be seeing ~4,000 deaths per day were actual seeing 25x less deaths. Some of that difference will be due to Omicron not being as nasty , but most will be due to vaccines.

[didds]

[
Strange how these 'free thinkers' never seem to dispute the Green Cross Code, or the veracity of NCAP pedestrain impact testing.

Or maybe they do, and just never get around to posting about it.

Paul

or generic requriements to ..
wear a helmet on a motorcycle.
wear seat belts in a vehicle
not purchase tobacco products or alcohol under the age of 18.
only drive on the left in the UK etc
not purchase knives under the age of 18 (caveats in scotland etc)
not purchase fireworks in N.I. without a license
not use an e-scooter in public unless it is rented as part of a recognised scheme
not drive a car under the age of 17, or without a license
not use a vehicle on a road without a MOT when applicable, and/or VED, and/or insurance in place
not build housies, sheds etc without planning permissions
not take "recreational" drugs
not watch films when not of the age decided on by the board of censors

and so on and so forth.

didds

[anon155742]

What can we deduce from that?

John

Nothing.

Unless perhaps you need to learn that the plural of anecdote is not data.

Well here's some data.

In January 21 when less 2m people had received their 1st dose cases were ~57,000 per day (7day average) and deaths ~14 days later were running at 1286 per day ( 7 day average). This January cases are ~175,000 per day (7 day average) but deaths are only running at 163 per day (7 day average). If they were at the same level as last year then we would be seeing ~4,000 deaths per day were actual seeing 25x less deaths. Some of that difference will be due to Omicron not being as nasty , but most will be due to vaccines.

Are countries that dont have large scale vaccination programs demonstrating 25x higher death rates with the Omicron variant?

For example, Morocco has less than 10% with 3 vaccine shots. It has poor health care, a high level of poverty etc. Should more of them not be dead?

https://www.mapnews.ma/en/actualites/general/covid-19-morocco-reports-4963-new-cases-over-343-mln-people-receive-three-doses

[Newroad]

As compared to which nation/region, Anon?

You'd need to compare against a nation with similar demographics and similar quality of data capture.

One point to consider is that most/all of the African nations, not just the sub-Saharan ones, have relatively young populations. This would, all things being equal, produce a lower death rate than most Western nations.

Regards, Newroad

[Arborbridge]

What can we deduce from that?

John

Nothing.

Unless perhaps you need to learn that the plural of anecdote is not data.

That's a bit harsh

[dealtn]

The ability to think for oneself has been completely lost in all this wall to wall nonsense.

I would rephrase this as, the ability to not be easily influenced by social media and instead form one's own opinions through independent reading and thinking has been mostly lost.

I don't disagree, other than to reflect this was lost a long time ago and appears to affect both sides of many discussions. I mourn the general loss of knowledge seeking and independent thought as something previously considered normal.

[daveh]

What can we deduce from that?

John

Nothing.

Unless perhaps you need to learn that the plural of anecdote is not data.

Well here's some data.

In January 21 when less 2m people had received their 1st dose cases were ~57,000 per day (7day average) and deaths ~14 days later were running at 1286 per day ( 7 day average). This January cases are ~175,000 per day (7 day average) but deaths are only running at 163 per day (7 day average). If they were at the same level as last year then we would be seeing ~4,000 deaths per day were actual seeing 25x less deaths. Some of that difference will be due to Omicron not being as nasty , but most will be due to vaccines.

Are countries that dont have large scale vaccination programs demonstrating 25x higher death rates with the Omicron variant?

For example, Morocco has less than 10% with 3 vaccine shots. It has poor health care, a high level of poverty etc. Should more of them not be dead?

https://www.mapnews.ma/en/actualites/general/covid-19-morocco-reports-4963-new-cases-over-343-mln-people-receive-three-doses

More of them are dead compared to us. Expressing the data I quoted earlier in a different way. In January 21 2.26% of cases were leading to deaths, this January it is only 0.09% of cases. In Morocco according to the site you quote 0.14% of cases are leading to deaths. I would worry also that death records are poor in many third world countries (I don't know if that applies to Morocco) so recorded deaths may be under reported in Morocco. A first world country with poor vaccination uptake would be a better comparison.

[daveh]

More of them are dead compared to us. Expressing the data I quoted earlier in a different way. In January 21 2.26% of cases were leading to deaths, this January it is only 0.09% of cases. In Morocco according to the site you quote 0.14% of cases are leading to deaths. I would worry also that death records are poor in many third world countries (I don't know if that applies to Morocco) so recorded deaths may be under reported in Morocco. A first world country with poor vaccination uptake would be a better comparison.

I had a look at Serbia which from the reports on N. Djokovic and his problems getting into Australia has one of the poorer vaccine uptakes in Europe. Taking their 28 day case stats and 28 day death stats from https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/ ... 7b48e9ecf6 then they are showing a recent covid death rate of 0.84% compared to the UK death rate of 0.10% using the 28 day data on the same site. Those are likely to be more comparable data and suggest the better vaccination record in the UK is responsible for an 8fold reduction in deaths.

[redsturgeon]

The ability to think for oneself has been completely lost in all this wall to wall nonsense.

I would rephrase this as, the ability to not be easily influenced by social media and instead form one's own opinions through independent reading and thinking has been mostly lost.

I don't disagree, other than to reflect this was lost a long time ago and appears to affect both sides of many discussions. I mourn the general loss of knowledge seeking and independent thought as something previously considered normal.

I am a knowledge seeking, independent thinker
You are a brainwashed, social media addict
He is a ignorant moron.

[Arborbridge]

Are countries that dont have large scale vaccination programs demonstrating 25x higher death rates with the Omicron variant?

For example, Morocco has less than 10% with 3 vaccine shots. It has poor health care, a high level of poverty etc. Should more of them not be dead?

https://www.mapnews.ma/en/actualites/general/covid-19-morocco-reports-4963-new-cases-over-343-mln-people-receive-three-doses

I remember early in this pandemic that More or Less ran a discussion about comparison between countries. The conclusion was that there are so many variables - social, infrastructural, economical, geographic, demographic - that it is basically pointless to try to base arguments on these comparisons.

Arb.

[TUK020]

There are 2 points that I think harris1939 has missed.

1) lockdowns/restrictions were there to slow the spread of the virus, to enable the NHS to continue to function (or at least not to collapse entirely).
2) My polio vaccine seems to be protecting me pretty well 50+ years after it was administered. Haven't had measles or TB either, and I know I've come into contact with at least one of those several times.

Must be all that raw garlic I'm eating.

Paul

And the garlic helps with not catching COVID - it automatically ensures a level of social distancing

[9873210]

And the garlic helps with not catching COVID - it automatically ensures a level of social distancing

At least from vampires and COVID probably came from bats.

[pje16]

It helps repel humans as well

[AWOL]

The only point I would take on board from the OP is that the vaccine longevity is currently lacking.
A chap on Times Radio this morning was commenting that 6-monthly topups might be needed.
Hopefully not.

V8

Longevity of which aspect of the vaccine. The antibodies, the cellular response, the ability to prevent severe infection? I think one of the problems with the discussion of the vaccines is that a lot is made about reductions in antibody levels as if that was the whole or most important part of the immune story. The reality is that all vaccines and infections produce short lived antibodies but usually long lasting cellular immune responses.

I cannot claim to be up to date on this as I have been suffering from COVID news fatigue and am hiding from people I know who are saying things like "now you don't need to prove you are negative I am going to get on flights to go on holiday even if I have COVID".

The biggest problem for vaccines is that they usually are less effective in the elderly, say the over 75s. None of this alters the facts that to meet the definition of a vaccine, a vaccine must prevent more ill health than it causes. Sinovac and possibly the Sputnik are struggling to meet the minimal requirements to be recognised as a vaccine although it's hard to know with Sputnik as the Russians have been very shy and selective with the data.

Their was another controvertial Harris around in 1939, well meaning, but not ultimately on the right side of history.