Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to Rhyd6,eyeball08,Wondergirly,bofh,johnstevens77, for Donating to support the site

Clariman v Covid round 3

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Forum rules
This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
servodude
Lemon Half
Posts: 8394
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:56 am
Has thanked: 4482 times
Been thanked: 3608 times

Re: Clariman v Covid round 3

#491483

Postby servodude » April 4th, 2022, 12:03 pm

redsturgeon wrote:I am left to surmise that the nature of the YouTube algorithm encourages mild conspiracy theorising which is a shame. i still watch his videos but with my sceptic radar tuned up high


I've watched his videos when recommended here and occasionally when I've run out of guitar stuff recommendations

I like his manner and attitude
- but I do think I've noticed a bit of a tendency recently to play to the gallery and contradict things/approaches he's used in the past (being selective in the name of evidence based medicine when the evidence goes against his position etc)

-sd

9873210
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1017
Joined: December 9th, 2016, 6:44 am
Has thanked: 233 times
Been thanked: 308 times

Re: Clariman v Covid round 3

#491556

Postby 9873210 » April 4th, 2022, 4:47 pm

servodude wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:Due to my own easy access to tests I have taken many LFTs and PCRs in the last year...no positives.

John

I sometimes wonder whether there is a cohort who have, and have always had, immunity from this type of virus. Also a cohort who have susceptibility to catching it.

TJH


I think it helps to see immunity as a spectrum
- some folk in very good health with innately alert immune systems will just shrug off even novel stuff (new stuff is recognised as such and dealt with)
- and at the other end there's folk that provide easy pickings for any virus (and do so repeatedly)

most folk lie between these extremes (and move around on that spectrum) their responses varying with exercise, practice and general well being

- sd

Independent of general immune health, an individual can have different responses to different viruses. Any particular individual can produce a large but not infinite variety of antibodies. Different individuals will produce different assortments. For a given virus It is possible for an individual to be lucky and produce a particularly effective antibody or be unlucky and produce no effective antibody.

This is particularly likely with a novel virus where there has been no prior evolutionary pressure.

redsturgeon
Lemon Half
Posts: 8962
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:06 am
Has thanked: 1324 times
Been thanked: 3693 times

Re: Clariman v Covid round 3

#491656

Postby redsturgeon » April 4th, 2022, 9:40 pm

Just did a finger prick antibody test and I have good levels of IgG, as evidenced by strong line on the LFT.

We are now also able to do a venous blood test that will actually give a count.

I had my booster in December.

John

Julian
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1389
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:58 am
Has thanked: 534 times
Been thanked: 677 times

Re: Clariman v Covid round 3

#491862

Postby Julian » April 5th, 2022, 2:56 pm

chas49 wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60913637

99 percent of adults in England and Wales are testing positive for COVID antibodies -

Image

Source - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights

Time to get on with our lives....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


But as we can see from the infection levels, having antibodies clearly doesn't prevent infection. It appears to reduce serious illness etc, but it doesn't really affect the transmissibility.
...


I found the graph on page 46 of the latest vaccine surveillance report interesting (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... eek-13.pdf)

It breaks out that headline number by plotting S and N antibody presence separately and shows far higher prevalence of S antibodies (effectively 100%) in their sampling vs only about 38% prevalence of N antibodies.

One needs to be careful to consider the cohorts, and I’m not sure if the 99% figure touted in the media is coming from the same data. The data from my link is random sampling from blood donors which I suggest goes a long way to explain the spectacularly high prevalence of S antibodies since my hunch is that people choosing to donate blood will be more likely to be vaccinated and the younger end of the population for whom vaccines are not yet available or where parents might have decided against them are actively excluded due to the lower age cutoff for UK blood donors (must be at least 17 years old).

If I’m reading the graph right it means that about 2/3rds of those people with antibodies are S-only so got them via vaccination assuming we exclude the possibility of a weird S-only immune response to a natural infection. I’ve seen lots of data about the reduced efficacy of vaccine-induced antibodies in terms of preventing basic (non-severe) Omicron infection, to the extent that 6 months after the 2nd dose of the AZ vaccine 0% efficacy is within the confidence bounds (page 11 of this same report). Boosters help get back to about 40%-50% efficacy against non-severe symptomatic disease depending on how long ago the booster was but that’s not great and I would imagine that efficacy against asymptomatic infection, something that there isn’t any data for, would be even less.

For me all of the above helps explain why we are seeing such high case rates for so long in the face of this supposedly high prevalence of antibodies in the UK population. Really when we are talking about keeping down total case numbers vaccine induced antibodies, at least from the current set of vaccines, are pretty much irrelevant and that puts about 2/3rds of the population right back into the firing line as far as non-severe infection is concerned so still a large number of people left for Omicron to infect. For those with N antibodies the picture is probably more variable depending on what variant induced an individual’s antibodies and also how long ago the individual was infected would affect how much the level of circulating antibodies would have contracted so even the presence of N antibodies would not necessarily give strong immunity to everyone with detectable N antibodies wrt non-severe infection.

- Julian

9873210
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1017
Joined: December 9th, 2016, 6:44 am
Has thanked: 233 times
Been thanked: 308 times

Re: Clariman v Covid round 3

#491949

Postby 9873210 » April 5th, 2022, 7:18 pm

Can N antibodies actually prevent an infection? I thought the N proteins are tucked away inside the virus and so it can't be recognized until the virus gets into a cell (or the virus is disrupted by other means).

Is there a definition of "infection" that is broader that gets inside a cell? E.g. it's not considered an infection until there is some level of transmission from cell to cell.

Julian
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1389
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:58 am
Has thanked: 534 times
Been thanked: 677 times

Re: Clariman v Covid round 3

#491987

Postby Julian » April 5th, 2022, 8:47 pm

9873210 wrote:Can N antibodies actually prevent an infection? I thought the N proteins are tucked away inside the virus and so it can't be recognized until the virus gets into a cell (or the virus is disrupted by other means).

Is there a definition of "infection" that is broader that gets inside a cell? E.g. it's not considered an infection until there is some level of transmission from cell to cell.

Excellent questions.

Re effect on N antibodies I don’t know, in fact I wonder whether the scientific community knows yet(*), but I was using N antibodies more as a proxy for the nature of the S antibodies rather than in their own right hence my specific calling out of “vaccine induced” in my “when we are talking about keeping down total case numbers vaccine induced antibodies, at least from the current set of vaccines, are pretty much irrelevant” qualification. N is currently indicative of infection-induced adaptive immune response since the current vaccines only expose the host to the spike protein so if N antibodies are present then S antibodies will also be present but will not have come solely from a Covid-19 vaccine so might be less keyed to the original strain. Also there i evidence that even with only vaccine-induced S antibodies the booster (giving a minimum third exposure to identical wild-strain(ish) spike antigen) not only boosts immediate circulating antibody levels for a while but also increases breadth i.e. neutralising effect against multiple variants. Putting all that together it’s also at least a plausible theory that someone with N antibodies might have the breadth of action of their originally vaccine-induced S antibodies further broadened by pre or post vaccination infection. Bottom line is that I think it might at least not be absurd to suggest that some subset of the people with N antibodies might have S antibodies that have more effective neutralisation wrt the currently dominant circulating strains than those people who only acquired their S antibodies from vaccination. That increased neutralisation would be especially true for those who acquired their N antibodies from Omicron infection.

Oh, and I suppose it is at least conceivable that certain N antibodies might be neutralising. If certain N antibody bindings were such that the RNA was compromised due to messing up its nucleocapsid packaging that could mean that even though spike allows the virus to make the interface with a host cell such that the viral particle’s RNA could be injected into a host cell (by membrane fusion or, I think more favoured by Omicron, by endocytosis) maybe a prior N antibody binding could make that RNA unviable. Actually, I wonder if that might feed into your second question re the definition of infection. I assume that a replication deficient virus can still inject its RNA or DNA into a host cell but because certain genes have been knocked out by the vaccine designers it won’t be able to spawn new viral particles from within the “infected” cell. I don’t know the answer but you definitely raise an interesting question re the definition of infection.

- Julian

(*) In the last 6 months or so I’ve tried to dig at least one level deeper into the science by buying a few text books and following YouTube channels such as “This Week in Virology” (TWIV). I’m under no illusion that I understand this stuff, I have a pitifully skin-deep understanding of the basic concepts compared to people who have dedicated their adult lives to the various relevant disciplines, but one of the big things I’ve noticed is just how much more frequently I hear “we just don’t know” comments vs the I suspect false authority we are often presented with by the mainstream media. There is still a huge amount to understand about this wretched virus. The TWIV folks in particular often rage against the obsession with spike and the lack of research on the actions of the various non-structural proteins.

9873210
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1017
Joined: December 9th, 2016, 6:44 am
Has thanked: 233 times
Been thanked: 308 times

Re: Clariman v Covid round 3

#492203

Postby 9873210 » April 6th, 2022, 4:25 pm

Julian wrote:
Re effect on N antibodies I don’t know, in fact I wonder whether the scientific community knows yet(*), but I was using N antibodies more as a proxy for the nature of the S antibodies rather than in their own right hence my specific calling out of “vaccine induced” ...


Thank you. Using N antibodies as a proxy for infection makes sense in the UK and other areas where synthetic nucleic acid vaccines predominate.

Note that this would not work in countries such as China where whole virus vaccines were used. Nor would any hypothetical study in the UK (or most of the developed world) that concluded that people with N antibodies have better immunity say much about the relative effectiveness of whole virus vaccines. (Not something Julian said, but I have heard the argument from others.)


Return to “Coronavirus Discussions”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests