Clariman v Covid round 3

[Clariman]

I'm intrigued that so many people here think they've never had covid. I bet many of you have. About a third of people get it asymptomtically. I had positive PCRs in April and December 2021 but had no symptoms at all, but could have passed it on to others so self isolated. I only tested because I participate in the zoe covid study and was offered them.

Same last week, although this time I have some mild cold like symptoms and my first ever positive LFT the day after. Hopefully it stays mild.

Currently about 1 in 12 have covid in the UK. It is rife. If you've not caught it, you are either living a closeted life indoors, haveb had it asympotmatically, or are very lucky. I now think most of us will have had it or will get it. Seems completely inevitable with the current rates and opening up.

C

[Itsallaguess]

I now think most of us will have had it or will get it.

Seems completely inevitable with the current rates and opening up.

It was always inevitable, and I'd have been really surprised if anyone ever seriously thought otherwise...

The questions were always to do with the capacity of the NHS to be able to cope with each wave, and the capacity for the people getting it to have improved outcomes as we kept initial infections relatively low through very costly lock-downs (financial and personal costs..), which enabled science to quickly get to understand it and treat it better...

Thankfully, we've been able to cope with both of those issues, and the outcomes for both NHS and personal-health situations have improved fantastically.

It's a modern day miracle that science was able to deliver so well, and so quickly, to be able to cope with an issue that in many earlier periods of human history would have been simply devastating.

From the BBC -

But despite the record numbers of Covid infections, the current wave is putting even fewer people in hospital than we saw in January - precisely because so many of us now have a combination of protection from vaccination and previous infections.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60913637

99 percent of adults in England and Wales are testing positive for COVID antibodies -



Source - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights

Time to get on with our lives....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[chas49]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60913637

99 percent of adults in England and Wales are testing positive for COVID antibodies -



Source - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights

Time to get on with our lives....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

But as we can see from the infection levels, having antibodies clearly doesn't prevent infection. It appears to reduce serious illness etc, but it doesn't really affect the transmissibility.

We do need to get on with our lives, but they can't be lived in the same way as we did before....

[Itsallaguess]

But as we can see from the infection levels, having antibodies clearly doesn't prevent infection.

It appears to reduce serious illness etc, but it doesn't really affect the transmissibility.

I agree, and I don't think anyone's suggesting anything different, but then if huge parts of UK society are in a position where serious illness is prevented, even where transmissibility cannot 100% be avoided, then we're getting into 'flu' territory at that point, where well-rehearsed appropriate actions can avoid the worst health outcomes for those who are susceptible, whilst the rest of society get on with their lives.

The OP seems to have answered his own question - he's recently caught it again and has 'mild, cold like symptoms', and that's from someone who might have considered themselves in one of the more vulnerable categories earlier in the pandemic....

Vaccine induced antibodies are doing their job, and broader infection-induced antibodies are also doing theirs.

Let's get on with our lives, whilst taking appropriate personal precautions if and when necessary, and properly enjoy the coming summer with confidence.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Clariman]

The OP seems to have answered his own question - he's recently caught it again and has 'mild, cold like symptoms', and that's from someone who might have considered themselves in one of the more vulnerable categories earlier in the pandemic....

The interesting point for me is that I was completely asymptomatic when I had the last 2 positive PCR tests - and LFTs (on second one) were always negative. So why do I have symptoms this time with a positive LFT? Bigger viral load? My last vaccine was nearly 5 months ago? Who knows.

[redsturgeon]

The OP seems to have answered his own question - he's recently caught it again and has 'mild, cold like symptoms', and that's from someone who might have considered themselves in one of the more vulnerable categories earlier in the pandemic....

The interesting point for me is that I was completely asymptomatic when I had the last 2 positive PCR tests - and LFTs (on second one) were always negative. So why do I have symptoms this time with a positive LFT? Bigger viral load? My last vaccine was nearly 5 months ago? Who knows.

Generally PCRs can be much more sensitive than LFTs. With a PCR the test runs through cycles until it detects a certain amount of viral material...this could be live or dead. generally 35 to 40 cycles are carried out but high viral loads can be detected in fewer cycles (only 16 in my stepson's case)

LFTs show about 15% false negative and 3% false positives.

Due to my own easy access to tests I have taken many LFTs and PCRs in the last year...no positives.

John

[Clariman]

Due to my own easy access to tests I have taken many LFTs and PCRs in the last year...no positives.

John

Show off

[redsturgeon]

Due to my own easy access to tests I have taken many LFTs and PCRs in the last year...no positives.

John

Show off

Just lucky.

John

[Clariman]

Due to my own easy access to tests I have taken many LFTs and PCRs in the last year...no positives.

John

Show off

Just lucky.

John

Both you and my other half. We wonder whether nearly 40 years of teaching in school means she has built up quite a lot of non-Covid coronavirus antibodies which give some protection.

[pje16]

I'm intrigued that so many people here think they've never had covid. I bet many of you have. About a third of people get it asymptomtically. I had positive PCRs in April and December 2021 but had no symptoms at all, but could have passed it on to others so self isolated. I only tested because I participate in the zoe covid study and was offered them.

Same last week, although this time I have some mild cold like symptoms and my first ever positive LFT the day after. Hopefully it stays mild.

Currently about 1 in 12 have covid in the UK. It is rife. If you've not caught it, you are either living a closeted life indoors, haveb had it asympotmatically, or are very lucky. I now think most of us will have had it or will get it. Seems completely inevitable with the current rates and opening up.

C

I have had monthy blood and swab tests since Dec 20 and every test has come back negative
I wasn't stuck indoors as I went shopping every week, and helped at a foodbank every Saturday
also for a year, went out twice a week picking up delivering nurses scrubs (these were all good legit reasons to get out of the house)
The only real difference was not going to work or to the pub
I too am in the zoe covid study
I may have caught but with those monthly tests I thinbk it is unlikely, but I guess I could have caught a week after a test and be shot of it 2 weeks later

[tjh290633]

Due to my own easy access to tests I have taken many LFTs and PCRs in the last year...no positives.

John

I sometimes wonder whether there is a cohort who have, and have always had, immunity from this type of virus. Also a cohort who have susceptibility to catching it.

TJH

[servodude]

Due to my own easy access to tests I have taken many LFTs and PCRs in the last year...no positives.

John

I sometimes wonder whether there is a cohort who have, and have always had, immunity from this type of virus. Also a cohort who have susceptibility to catching it.

TJH

I think it helps to see immunity as a spectrum
- some folk in very good health with innately alert immune systems will just shrug off even novel stuff (new stuff is recognised as such and dealt with)
- and at the other end there's folk that provide easy pickings for any virus (and do so repeatedly)

most folk lie between these extremes (and move around on that spectrum) their responses varying with exercise, practice and general well being

- sd

[AsleepInYorkshire]

I think it helps to see immunity as a spectrum
- some folk in very good health with innately alert immune systems will just shrug off even novel stuff (new stuff is recognised as such and dealt with)
- and at the other end there's folk that provide easy pickings for any virus (and do so repeatedly)

most folk lie between these extremes (and move around on that spectrum) their responses varying with exercise, practice and general well being

- sd

Well that and a huge degree of stubbornness.

AiY(D)

[Mike4]

Due to my own easy access to tests I have taken many LFTs and PCRs in the last year...no positives.

John

Which leads one to wonder if you are in the 99% of the population having antibodies to SARS-CoV-2.

And if you are, whether they are vaccine-induced antibodies or infection-induced antibodies.

[redsturgeon]

Due to my own easy access to tests I have taken many LFTs and PCRs in the last year...no positives.

John

Which leads one to wonder if you are in the 99% of the population having antibodies to SARS-CoV-2.

And if you are, whether they are vaccine-induced antibodies or infection-induced antibodies.

Three vaccines so I hope i have antibodies. I will test myself later.

I very rarely get colds or other viruses. I think I have had flu twice in my life, once at school and once at university.

John

[TUK020]

Generally PCRs can be much more sensitive than LFTs. With a PCR the test runs through cycles until it detects a certain amount of viral material...this could be live or dead. generally 35 to 40 cycles are carried out but high viral loads can be detected in fewer cycles (only 16 in my stepson's case)


John

John,
bit confused by one thing - what is the difference between 'live' and 'dead' viral material?
dead = fragments?
tuk020

[redsturgeon]

Generally PCRs can be much more sensitive than LFTs. With a PCR the test runs through cycles until it detects a certain amount of viral material...this could be live or dead. generally 35 to 40 cycles are carried out but high viral loads can be detected in fewer cycles (only 16 in my stepson's case)


John

John,
bit confused by one thing - what is the difference between 'live' and 'dead' viral material?
dead = fragments?
tuk020

Yes, I thought twice about uses those terms because viruses are not really alive. I guess I could have described it as non viable fragments still being picked up by the process.

John

[Mike4]

Due to my own easy access to tests I have taken many LFTs and PCRs in the last year...no positives.

John

Which leads one to wonder if you are in the 99% of the population having antibodies to SARS-CoV-2.

And if you are, whether they are vaccine-induced antibodies or infection-induced antibodies.

Three vaccines so I hope i have antibodies. I will test myself later.

I very rarely get colds or other viruses. I think I have had flu twice in my life, once at school and once at university.

John

I guess I expressed it badly. Given that:

1) The vaccine does not prevent infection,
2) 30% of the population has not vaccinated but nearly all of them also have antibodies, and
3) Vaccine antibodies are quite different from infection antibodies

it would be interesting which your are - vaccine induced or infection induced. Although I appreciate you may not wish to announce which to the world.

John Campbell holds the two types are distinguishable in testing. Is this correct?

He archly implies the government elects not to publish the data for political reasons. but the reasons for keeping that data secret remain unclear.

[redsturgeon]

I guess I expressed it badly. Given that:

1) The vaccine does not prevent infection,
2) 30% of the population has not vaccinated but nearly all of them also have antibodies, and
3) Vaccine antibodies are quite different from infection antibodies

it would be interesting which your are - vaccine induced or infection induced. Although I appreciate you may not wish to announce which to the world.

John Campbell holds the two types are distinguishable in testing. Is this correct?

He archly implies the government elects not to publish the data for political reasons. but the reasons for keeping that data secret remain unclear.

1. Not sure you can say this. The vaccine probably still provides some protection against even XE (the latest variant)

2.Studies show those who get infected do not always produce antibodies.
https://www.devon.gov.uk/news/study-sho ... -immunity/

3. The role of the T cells is also probably significant.

We do not have access to testing that would distinguish between vaccine and naturally acquired immunity. The simple finger prick tests will not differentiate. No doubt some testing is happening to investigate the differences but this testing is not routine.

John Campbell is currently heavily pushing the benefits of natural immunity over vaccine induced. It is unfortunate that he seems to be selective in his reporting on this issue. In a similar way he has been selective in the past about studies on the benefits of ivermectin, happily pushing dubious reports on its supposed efficacy while being critical of research doubting its value.

I am left to surmise that the nature of the YouTube algorithm encourages mild conspiracy theorising which is a shame. i still watch his videos but with my sceptic radar tuned up high.

John

[pje16]

I currently have a bad cold
This is my third one since October last year
Pre Covid I can't remember the last time I had one
All my LFTs have shown negative for Covid but It is crossing my mind as I have had 3 colds in 6 months that I have got Covid and the LFT DIY tests aren't that reliable
thoughts on that please