Are you one of the 70%?

[zico]

ONS figures today show 70% of the population were infected since end Apr 2020. I just wondered what the % is for Lemonfools. My guess would be 30%.If multiple infections, please just answer 'Yes'.

[XFool]

'NO'

But I have only had a few tests. No symptoms at all so, unless asymptomatic I've not had it to date.

'Other' ? Perhaps I should have voted this - for "Don't know" ? But I do know I have not tested positive...

It seems to me only the 'YES' responses can actually mean anything...

[Mike4]

I'm a bit puzzled by the "Maybe" option to the binary poll question.

"Have you tested positive since end Apr2020"


(Edit to quote the poll question, which is different from the thread title)

[SalvorHardin]

Almost certainly had it three weeks ago. Variety of symptoms, a bit more intense than the usual cold / hay fever / catarrh that I always get this time of the year.

I didn't test positive because I didn't have a test and I live out in the sticks. As a rule I don't encounter people every day, unless I make a bit of an effort to do so, so I'm not a risk for passing it on.

It's very easy for me to stay at home, especially since the Indian Premier League is on the tele

[DrFfybes]

Definately not tested positive, and as we were looking after/visiting mum until end of Oct we were LFT and PCR tested regularly.

We went to a gig last Thurs, heaving in the centre of Manchester, and thought "we'll catch it eventually so may as well do something fun than catch it at the shops". We did LFTs on Sun and Weds were both negative. Meanwhile the people next door, who have been very careful, caught it after the father met his son for a day fishing last week.

[redsturgeon]

See here:
viewtopic.php?f=98&t=33744

Those ONS figures are also six weeks out of date so the real number may well be over 80% by now.

No I have never tested positive for covid nor have I had any symptoms in the last two years.

John

[Julian]

I'm a bit puzzled by the "Maybe" option to the binary poll question.

"Have you tested positive since end Apr2020"


(Edit to quote the poll question, which is different from the thread title)

Agreed but I suppose one possibility that I might shoehorn in as a justification for the “Maybe” choice is the presence of a very faint red line at the T-line position of a lateral flow test kit. I have read in a few cases that sometimes a very feint T line can be from a food contamination rather than presence of the virus. (From memory the lateral flow test instructions do say not to eat or drink anything for 30 minutes(?) prior to taking a test.) I have had two friends that I know of, both asymptomatic, who chose to consider themselves positive on the basis of only a very faint T-line on a test; perhaps one or both of them might have been justified in voting maybe in this poll depending on just how faint the T-lines were on their tests.

- Julian

[Spet0789]

Had it in Jan, having been triple-jabbed (AZ x 2, Pf).

Felt rough for a weekend, with fever and cold like symptoms. Never in any concern but it wasn’t nothing either! Certainly wouldn’t have gone to work pre-Covid, and i have had perhaps one sick day every 3-4 years in the past (in other words, I did feel unusually rough!)

[Julian]

Had it in Jan, having been triple-jabbed (AZ x 2, Pf).

Felt rough for a weekend, with fever and cold like symptoms. Never in any concern but it wasn’t nothing either! Certainly wouldn’t have gone to work pre-Covid, and i have had perhaps one sick day every 3-4 years in the past (in other words, I did feel unusually rough!)

I hope that you’re fully recovered now. When was your booster?

I have had the same vaccines as you with my booster administered in late November last year, just over 20 weeks ago now. I notice from the latest vaccine surveillance report (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... eek-16.pdf) that it is now estimated that, while I should still have good protection against illness severe enough to hospitalise and/or kill me, my 3 vaccine doses now gives me essentially 0% protection against basic infection. (Sadly this is a fact that anti-vaxers tend to use to claim that the vaccines don’t work, some even claiming that means they don’t qualify as vaccines at all. Best I say no more about such people lest I descend into a string of profanities and have my post deleted.)

I’ve been out of the UK for a couple of months, returning next week. With the rate of infection in the UK still very high I am mentally preparing myself for catching SARS-CoV2 sometime in May or early June. I do know quite a few friends now who have had entirely asymptomatic infections however so if/when I do catch it I am obviously hoping that my experience will be closer to theirs than to yours.

- Julian

[GrahamPlatt]

I’ve just been to a school concert. About 200 in the auditorium. I counted 4 wearing a mask (so that would be 5 in total).

[tjh290633]

That 70% figure amazes me. I know very few people who have had the virus. My suspicion is that the sample used is far from representative. Maybe the people in the sample are more susceptible to the virus than the population at large.

TJH

[dealtn]

That 70% figure amazes me. I know very few people who have had the virus. My suspicion is that the sample used is far from representative. Maybe the people in the sample are more susceptible to the virus than the population at large.

TJH

Perhaps more likely is your sample of "the people you know" is less representative of the population at large. Selection bias is common.

[tjh290633]

That 70% figure amazes me. I know very few people who have had the virus. My suspicion is that the sample used is far from representative. Maybe the people in the sample are more susceptible to the virus than the population at large.

TJH

Perhaps more likely is your sample of "the people you know" is less representative of the population at large. Selection bias is common.

Quite possible. Not many of the people that I know work in close proximity to others, although some are teachers and health workers, who do.

TJH

[Julian]

That 70% figure amazes me. I know very few people who have had the virus. My suspicion is that the sample used is far from representative. Maybe the people in the sample are more susceptible to the virus than the population at large.

TJH

John Campbell covered this 70% in a very recent video - https://youtu.be/qj94Wqu8waU

If I understood it correctly, and I confess that I haven’t follow the source links yet so am only going by his summary, the ONS “representative sample” is about half a million people where the ONS survey project tests those same people repeatedly over the monitoring interval by subjecting them all to regular PCR tests so it is picking up not only people who tested because they felt I’ll and then came back positive but also asymptomatic infections or an infection so mild that it might otherwise have been mistaken for a common cold.

As of a couple of months ago like you I personally knew almost no one who had tested positive but now, two months later, I have added a number of my closest friends to that list and I can’t think of a single one that would have known that they were infected had they not tested for some reason other than feeling unwell. I did say in an earlier post that I had two friends who had tested positive and were 100% asymptomatic for the duration of the infection. Well, I’ve just remembered another 3 friends who also isolated due to a positive test again all 100% asymptomatic so I suspect the fact that the methodology of this ONS survey in terms of picking up asymptomatic infections might be very significant especially in a heavily vaccinated population.

- Julian

[nmdhqbc]

the poll and the question are not aligned. i did not test positive but i've never been tested. i think the 70% estimates the likelihood for folks like me.

[pje16]

I'm a bit puzzled by the "Maybe" option to the binary poll question.

Me too, perhaps that voter has brain fog

[Lootman]

That 70% figure amazes me. I know very few people who have had the virus. My suspicion is that the sample used is far from representative. Maybe the people in the sample are more susceptible to the virus than the population at large.

Perhaps more likely is your sample of "the people you know" is less representative of the population at large. Selection bias is common.

People may well vary in their susceptibility, but there is also a bias based on how different people have reacted psychologically to Covid.

You only have to read the covid topics here to quickly understand that some Lemons have been extremely concerned about it, often claiming that we aren't doing enough and/or are not doing it quickly enough and/or we should lock down like we are Asian. Then there are those who are sanguine about it, which I suspect includes TJH and myself. The former are more likely to test themselves regularly whereas the latter group will perhaps only take tests if they are compelled to, e.g. by travel requirements.

Again, some here have clearly invested a lot of time becoming part-time epidemiologists over the last 2 years. Whereas others have been content to just let it do its thing on the basis that it will eventually fizzle out.

The former group, being more conscious of Covid, will get tested a lot more, and so are more likely to report that they have had it. The latter group, myself included, claim not to have had it.

So perhaps the report should instead have stated that 70% of people believe that 70% of the population have had it.

[swill453]

the poll and the question are not aligned. i did not test positive but i've never been tested. i think the 70% estimates the likelihood for folks like me.

Yes. You could only be (pretty) sure you're not in the 70% if you'd been tested every week for the last 2 years.

Scott.

[Gersemi]

I think it is very unlikely that Lemon Fools are representative of the population at large, and probably even the people they know are not representative. Most people posting have said that they were taking precautions throughout the pandemic and it seems that many people are still wearing masks in crowded places, whilst noting that very few others are.

I followed all the rules in place throughout, but as I am in my mid fifties in good health I never thought it likely that I would be seriously ill. When the rules were relaxed I took advantage of them - whilst still following the remaining rules such as wearing a mask when entering a pub and only removing it when sat down etc etc. I did however go into pubs in July 2021, including the evening of the World Cup semi final that England played in (though it wasn't very crowded). Its not surprising that I caught Covid around this time, but my optisim proved to be well founded - I had been doubly vaccinated by that time and I was lucky enough to only be mildly ill. My point is that a lot of younger people would have been even less concerned about catching it and more frustrated about the restrictions. My younger friends (and I since I caught it) have been going out to gigs for months and predictably catching Covid along the way. Some are quite ill (even on catching it for a second time), but they accept that as a price of being able to socialise normally.

I think it makes sense to continue to take precautions if you are vulnerable, or you will be in close contace with someone who is, but for most people - they are going to catch it sooner or later, so they might as well accept that and get on with normal life.

[Lootman]

I think it makes sense to continue to take precautions if you are vulnerable, or you will be in close contact with someone who is, but for most people - they are going to catch it sooner or later, so they might as well accept that and get on with normal life.

Some of us argued from the very start that the lockdown should have applied only to (say) the over fifties and the vulnerable. Whilst the rest of the population should have continued to work and socialise as normal.

Given that 70% ended up catching it even with the restrictions, perhaps we would have reached this 70% threshold level more quickly. Wasn't 70% saturation cited as the herd immunity point by some?