Report to JCVI on vaccine numbers to prevent hospitalisation

[redsturgeon]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... r-2022.pdf

I have been waiting to see these numbers and they do seem to be as I suspected, ie. the numbers needed to vaccinate in order to prevent one hospitalisation seem very great to me.

As an example 3600 doses of the autumn booster were needed to prevent one hospitalisation in the age group 60-69 and 27,600 doses needed to prevent one serious hospitalisation.

I give these age ranges as they cover my own age and I would say these numbers reinforce my view that I need not take the vaccine offered last autumn.

John

[Gerry557]

........ But if everyone does the same.......

How will the optics look when the hospitals are over run.

[servodude]

........ But if everyone does the same.......

How will the optics look when the hospitals are over run.

That's "practically" covered by John's figures and decision - but indeed "feels" optically different
- as long as vaccines are available easily it shouldn't be too hard to wear for anyone in charge (as the figures explain what effect they have)
If / when the figures change it becomes harder to position yourself as driven by "the science"

[scotia]

I give these age ranges as they cover my own age and I would say these numbers reinforce my view that I need not take the vaccine offered last autumn.

John - I understand your decision - in your age group you personally believe that the advantage to yourself of a further vaccination will be small. I suppose we don't accurately know how much this vaccination would reduce your chances of a mild (re-)infection which you could pass on to others. However there is also the other side - what chance is there of a major side effect from the vaccine. So it looks like a reasonable personal choice and possibly relates to the family and friends in which you move. In your position I would find it difficult to disagree with your choice.
As I think I mentioned previously, I have a much clearer choice - which comes down on the side of receiving the vaccination (my 5th). I'm approaching my 79th birthday, I have experienced no side effects from the vaccinations (all 3 types), and a close relative whom I visit and stay on holiday with, is immunosuppressive. As far as I am aware, I have never been infected by Covid.
At my age I have received many annual Flu vaccinations, and some of them (in retrospect) have had a pretty poor performance against the prevailing variant. However I have suffered no side effects, and no Flu - so I'll continue.

[redsturgeon]

I give these age ranges as they cover my own age and I would say these numbers reinforce my view that I need not take the vaccine offered last autumn.

John - I understand your decision - in your age group you personally believe that the advantage to yourself of a further vaccination will be small. I suppose we don't accurately know how much this vaccination would reduce your chances of a mild (re-)infection which you could pass on to others. However there is also the other side - what chance is there of a major side effect from the vaccine. So it looks like a reasonable personal choice and possibly relates to the family and friends in which you move. In your position I would find it difficult to disagree with your choice.
As I think I mentioned previously, I have a much clearer choice - which comes down on the side of receiving the vaccination (my 5th). I'm approaching my 79th birthday, I have experienced no side effects from the vaccinations (all 3 types), and a close relative whom I visit and stay on holiday with, is immunosuppressive. As far as I am aware, I have never been infected by Covid.
At my age I have received many annual Flu vaccinations, and some of them (in retrospect) have had a pretty poor performance against the prevailing variant. However I have suffered no side effects, and no Flu - so I'll continue.

In your position i would probably make the same choice.

I don't think Pfizer or Moderna make the claim that being vaccinated will prevent a mild infection though so I did not think that I was increasing my chances of passing an infection on.

John

[scotia]

I don't think Pfizer or Moderna make the claim that being vaccinated will prevent a mild infection though so I did not think that I was increasing my chances of passing an infection on.

John

Yes - I think that is correct.
As an aside - we seem to have moved into a much more relaxed approach to handling Covid, without significant deleterious effects. Last year, around this time, a group of us (mainly elderly) met each weekday for two weeks, to aid with the distribution of (flower) seed from our world-wide seed exchange. Each day we we carried out Lateral Flow tests, and we all wore masks. This year - no tests, no masks, and as far as I am aware, no problems.

[redsturgeon]

I see Novak Djokovic has just been denied access to the USA again due to his lack of vaccination.

This is interesting since at some stage anyone who is considered "fully vaccinated" which means just one dose of a single dose vaccine or two doses of a two dose vaccine is now probably no more protected than someone who has had no vaccine but has had the infection.

My understanding is that the US will not accept a non vaccinated person even if they have had the infection though.

I wonder when they will finally rescind this.

Of course now we know also that the vaccine does not really help prevent transmission which further adds to the nonsense around this ban.

John

[scotia]

Of course now we know also that the vaccine does not really help prevent transmission which further adds to the nonsense around this ban.

John

I seem to have missed this info. The last source I was aware of was in the bmj, published February 2022. https://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o298
And the conclusion seemed to have been that the vaccines have helped to prevent transmission, but this performance has reduced when comparing the original vaccines with the more recent Covid variants.
I did find a more recent paper concerning the transmission of Omicron in US prisons, but the statistics were very poor, although they claimed that the vaccinations reduced the transmission rates within the prisons.
Could you let me know where your source is to be found?

[redsturgeon]

Of course now we know also that the vaccine does not really help prevent transmission which further adds to the nonsense around this ban.

John

I seem to have missed this info. The last source I was aware of was in the bmj, published February 2022. https://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o298
And the conclusion seemed to have been that the vaccines have helped to prevent transmission, but this performance has reduced when comparing the original vaccines with the more recent Covid variants.
I did find a more recent paper concerning the transmission of Omicron in US prisons, but the statistics were very poor, although they claimed that the vaccinations reduced the transmission rates within the prisons.
Could you let me know where your source is to be found?

There is some evidence that recent boosting or recent infections may help reduce transmission but in terms of the USA travel ban based on the idea that people who were jabbed two years ago are less likely transmitters than someone who has had covid recently and recovered, that is what seems nonsensical to me.

John

[scotia]

There is some evidence that recent boosting or recent infections may help reduce transmission but in terms of the USA travel ban based on the idea that people who were jabbed two years ago are less likely transmitters than someone who has had covid recently and recovered, that is what seems nonsensical to me.

John

Most governments around the world applied regulations in an attempt to curtail the spread of Covid. Their most effective weapons were the vaccines. So it was hardly surprising that the USA restricted entry to visitors who chose to be unvaccinated. Now that the major threat from Covid has significantly reduced, then possibly regulations can be relaxed. However currently I can't see any good reason why this should be a priority in order to let in a tennis player who desires not to be vaccinated.

[Lootman]

My understanding is that the US will not accept a non vaccinated person even if they have had the infection though.

The US requires proof of vaccination for non-residents and non-citizens. It will of course admit an unvaccinated American passport or green card holder who has never been vaccinated. Which reminds me of how the US will not give you a green card if you are HIV positive even though the US has high HIV infection rates. Or how the US will not grant you an entry visa if you have a criminal record even though its own people lead the developed world in convictions.

That said I have never been asked for proof of vaccination when entering the US (five times since Covid started). The airline does ask at check-in so I guess the US has out-sourced enforcement to the airlines, and otherwise just spot checks, if at all.

As it happens I have my 5th jab tomorrow - Moderna, the newer one that supposedly targets the newer variants. I rather have the feeling that this will be my last, absent a dramatic development. Never had Covid to my knowledge, nor has my wife.

[redsturgeon]

There is some evidence that recent boosting or recent infections may help reduce transmission but in terms of the USA travel ban based on the idea that people who were jabbed two years ago are less likely transmitters than someone who has had covid recently and recovered, that is what seems nonsensical to me.

John

Most governments around the world applied regulations in an attempt to curtail the spread of Covid. Their most effective weapons were the vaccines. So it was hardly surprising that the USA restricted entry to visitors who chose to be unvaccinated. Now that the major threat from Covid has significantly reduced, then possibly regulations can be relaxed. However currently I can't see any good reason why this should be a priority in order to let in a tennis player who desires not to be vaccinated.

I would agree with all of that. I'm not a great fan of Djokovic his case merely highlights the issue. What once made sense longer does, it will be interesting to see how long the regulations continue.

John

[servodude]

I would agree with all of that. I'm not a great fan of Djokovic his case merely highlights the issue. What once made sense longer does, it will be interesting to see how long the regulations continue.

The plight of this donkey lover seems very much a case of pour encourager les autres; my only real concern would be as to the direction that those others might be encouraged given the practical effect of the ban now is in chocolate teapot territory.

[daveh]

Most governments around the world applied regulations in an attempt to curtail the spread of Covid. Their most effective weapons were the vaccines. So it was hardly surprising that the USA restricted entry to visitors who chose to be unvaccinated. Now that the major threat from Covid has significantly reduced, then possibly regulations can be relaxed. However currently I can't see any good reason why this should be a priority in order to let in a tennis player who desires not to be vaccinated.

I would agree with all of that. I'm not a great fan of Djokovic his case merely highlights the issue. What once made sense longer does, it will be interesting to see how long the regulations continue.

John

I thought the US was relaxing the requirement in April so Djokovic should be able to attend the US Open, but having just googled I can't find confirmation. Thought I'd read it on the BBC and I find this https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/64997434 which says the vaccine requirement is valid until at least 10th April. So maybe I just misinterpreted it.

[scotia]

As it happens I have my 5th jab tomorrow - Moderna, the newer one that supposedly targets the newer variants. I rather have the feeling that this will be my last, absent a dramatic development. Never had Covid to my knowledge, nor has my wife.

I have just received notification of a spring booster in May - for the over 75s. So far I have had 2 Astra Zeneca, 2 Pfizer and 1 Moderna. And I understand that there will be there will be a further (7th) booster with my Flu jab in the Autumn. No side effects, and to my knowledge, no Covid.

[redsturgeon]

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202302.0350/v1

Here is a preprint of a study from Norway looking at correlations between percent of population receiving covid vaccinations vs excess mortality across the EU countries.

They do find a significant correlation, for every 1% greater vaccination coverage a 0.1% in increase in excess mortality, foe 2022 deaths. (although a decrease in 2021 deaths)

Caveats. This is a preprint ie. not peer reviewed yet. Correlation is not causation. There are issues in making inferences from nationwide data to individuals.

Worth a read, hopefully they will find that the vaccines are not the cause of excess deaths last year.

John Campbell has a video on it here but I find his coverage of this sort of thing overly biased and too "nudge. nudge wink wink" for my tastes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyo2UNQcdpQ

John

[Dod101]

I am in no position to judge any of this stuff. If and when I am offered a vaccine this spring I will take it.

Dod

[scotia]

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202302.0350/v1

Here is a preprint of a study from Norway looking at correlations between percent of population receiving covid vaccinations vs excess mortality across the EU countries.

They do find a significant correlation, for every 1% greater vaccination coverage a 0.1% in increase in excess mortality, foe 2022 deaths. (although a decrease in 2021 deaths)

Caveats. This is a preprint ie. not peer reviewed yet. Correlation is not causation. There are issues in making inferences from nationwide data to individuals.

Worth a read, hopefully they will find that the vaccines are not the cause of excess deaths last year.

John Campbell has a video on it here but I find his coverage of this sort of thing overly biased and too "nudge. nudge wink wink" for my tastes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyo2UNQcdpQ

John

Excess mortality is exceedingly imprecise when dealing with small differences. The data needs to be collected over multiple pre-Covid years, and there is no exact way of using it as a fit to the base of the post Covid years. Do you simply average the earlier years, or do you attempt to fit some apparent trend? . There was a discussion on Covid mortality on a country basis some time ago on TLF, and some knowledgeable statisticians explained how quite different results could be obtained by different analyses. I have searched - but couldn't find that article.

[scotia]

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202302.0350/v1
Here is a preprint of a study from Norway looking at correlations between percent of population receiving covid vaccinations vs excess mortality across the EU countries.
Caveats. This is a preprint ie. not peer reviewed yet. Correlation is not causation.
Worth a read, hopefully they will find that the vaccines are not the cause of excess deaths last year.

John

I have had a look at their paper. Getting back to my original point of the difficulty of estimating excess mortality, I had a look at Figure 1A . The graph shows estimated excess mortality for each of the months from January to September 2022. The points on this graph are displayed with substantial error bars, yet all of their centre points lie exactly on a straight line with no sign of any deviations.
Any comments from a statistician - or indeed from anyone who believe they can explain this pattern?

[servodude]

I have had a look at their paper. Getting back to my original point of the difficulty of estimating excess mortality, I had a look at Figure 1A . The graph shows estimated excess mortality for each of the months from January to September 2022. The points on this graph are displayed with substantial error bars, yet all of their centre points lie exactly on a straight line with no sign of any deviations.
Any comments from a statistician - or indeed from anyone who believe they can explain this pattern?

I imagine it's by design - using some sort of linear fit for the estimation method